Near Earth Asteroids

[steve_bank]

In the news

Planetary Defense Archives - NASA Science

blogs.nasa.gov

ASA analysis of a near-Earth asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, indicates it has a more than 1% chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032 – which also means there is about a 99% chance this asteroid will not impact. Such initial analysis will change over time as more observations are gathered.  

 Currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%. 

 Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first reported on Dec. 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center– the international clearing house for small-body positional measurements – by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile. The asteroid, which is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide, caught astronomers’ attention when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on Dec. 31, 2024. The Sentry list includes any known near-Earth asteroids that have a non-zero probability of impacting Earth in the future.  

There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in. New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data come in. 

I would think intercepting asteroids would be a higher priority than going to Mars.

 

[Shadowy Man]

In the news

Planetary Defense Archives - NASA Science

blogs.nasa.gov

ASA analysis of a near-Earth asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, indicates it has a more than 1% chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032 – which also means there is about a 99% chance this asteroid will not impact. Such initial analysis will change over time as more observations are gathered.  

 Currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%. 

 Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first reported on Dec. 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center– the international clearing house for small-body positional measurements – by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile. The asteroid, which is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide, caught astronomers’ attention when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on Dec. 31, 2024. The Sentry list includes any known near-Earth asteroids that have a non-zero probability of impacting Earth in the future.  

There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in. New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data come in. 

I would think intercepting asteroids would be a higher priority than going to Mars.

Can Elon musk make money intercepting asteroids? If not, then don’t expect it to survive the coming nasa funding cuts.

 

[Bomb#20]

I would think intercepting asteroids would be a higher priority than going to Mars.

Can Elon musk make money intercepting asteroids? If not, then don’t expect it to survive the coming nasa funding cuts.

He can make money intercepting asteroids. Who else is going to launch the interceptor?

 

[steve_bank]

Mus';s rockets keep getting bigger and bigger.

I a no psychologist, it seems phallic. Maybe he is compensating for a small penis.

 

[Shadowy Man]

I would think intercepting asteroids would be a higher priority than going to Mars.

Can Elon musk make money intercepting asteroids? If not, then don’t expect it to survive the coming nasa funding cuts.

He can make money intercepting asteroids. Who else is going to launch the interceptor?

Ok then. Nothing to worry about.

 

[Swammerdami]

I would think intercepting asteroids would be a higher priority than going to Mars.

Can Elon musk make money intercepting asteroids? If not, then don’t expect it to survive the coming nasa funding cuts.

He can make money intercepting asteroids. Who else is going to launch the interceptor?

Ok then. Nothing to worry about.

I suppose that altering its trajectory slightly is easier than deflecting an asteroid enough to miss Earth altogether.

Thus the most lucrative reward for Mr. Musk's services might be an auction for the deflection's aim. The MAGA crowd would start a GoFundMe to blast at California with its 54 electoral votes and the queer antifa Jews in Hollywood. Musk might get paid TWICE in that scenario, as California pays to direct the asteroid further West for a harmless Pacific Ocean touchdown.

With Musk's teenage nerds in control of NASA's computers, this could be a big growth industry, and a boon for the Stock Exchange and the Dollar! A little data-fudging would increase the number of predicted asteroid collisions significantly.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Not to be snarky, we all make typos, but I keep thinking of Trump tweeting out a message like, "I will protect you from ASSteroids!!"

 

[Swammerdami]

Not to be snarky, we all make typos, but I keep thinking of Trump tweeting out a message like, "I will protect you from ASSteroids!!"

You joke but 53.5% of Republican voters think asteroids are some sort of anabolic-androgenic steroid used by progressive schools to force sex changes on innocent Christian children.

 

[crazyfingers]

In the news

Planetary Defense Archives - NASA Science

blogs.nasa.gov

ASA analysis of a near-Earth asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, indicates it has a more than 1% chance of impacting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032 – which also means there is about a 99% chance this asteroid will not impact. Such initial analysis will change over time as more observations are gathered.  

 Currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%. 

 Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first reported on Dec. 27, 2024, to the Minor Planet Center– the international clearing house for small-body positional measurements – by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile. The asteroid, which is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide, caught astronomers’ attention when it rose on the NASA automated Sentry risk list on Dec. 31, 2024. The Sentry list includes any known near-Earth asteroids that have a non-zero probability of impacting Earth in the future.  

There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in. New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data come in. 

I would think intercepting asteroids would be a higher priority than going to Mars.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/07/science/asteroid-2024-yr4-earth-risk/index.html

NASA Continues to Monitor Orbit of Near-Earth Asteroid 2024 YR4 – Planetary Defense

blogs.nasa.gov

Impact riskestimated now 2.3%. It may still go down.

 

[Swammerdami]

The impact is estimated to have the energy of an 8 - 50 megaton H-bomb, though with little, if any, radioactive fallout. As the map posted by crazyfingers shows, the point of impact, if any, is tightly constrained. Many targets have high populations but limited financial or geopolitical value.

Do we know if Musk will be able to divert the trajectory toward more lucrative targets?

 

[Shadowy Man]

The impact is estimated to have the energy of an 8 - 50 megaton H-bomb, though with little, if any, radioactive fallout. As the map posted by crazyfingers shows, the point of impact, if any, is tightly constrained. Many targets have high populations but limited financial or geopolitical value.

Do we know if Musk will be able to divert the trajectory toward more lucrative targets?

The uncertainty of it hitting the Earth means we don’t currently know where or even if it will hit the Earth on its current orbit. There is nowhere near the technology available to direct it to any specific location by nudging it to a new orbit.

The closer it gets the more energy it takes to steer it to its final destination, so I think we are safe from anyone using it as a weapon, at least on a target much smaller than Earth itself.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Ok. Sorry. I just noticed that this is a late 2024 discovered object which means its current error bar is probably around as large as it is going to be. These things tend to get refined as time goes on and the likelihood will drop substantially over the coming months and years.

 

[bilby]

How much damage will occur if it misses the Earth, but we get clipped by the error bar as it passes? Perhaps Musk could heroically go out in person to cut the error bars off and hurl them into deep space.

I understand that the mission would be much easier if it is a one way trip. Oh well, you can't make an omlette because eggs are so expensive

 

[Bomb#20]

The impact is estimated to have the energy of an 8 - 50 megaton H-bomb, though with little, if any, radioactive fallout. As the map posted by crazyfingers shows, the point of impact, if any, is tightly constrained. Many targets have high populations but limited financial or geopolitical value.

The map doesn't make any sense though. Why would there be so much east-west uncertainty and simultaneously so little north-south uncertainty? There has to be a story there. I'd bet on it being an artifact of the computer model they're using.

 

[bilby]

The impact is estimated to have the energy of an 8 - 50 megaton H-bomb, though with little, if any, radioactive fallout. As the map posted by crazyfingers shows, the point of impact, if any, is tightly constrained. Many targets have high populations but limited financial or geopolitical value.

The map doesn't make any sense though. Why would there be so much east-west uncertainty and simultaneously so little north-south uncertainty? There has to be a story there. I'd bet on it being an artifact of the computer model they're using.

If they know the direction the asteroid is moving to a high degree of precision, but have more uncertainty about its speed (or its distance), then that would result in a projected impact whose location is determined by the rotation of the Earth, and whose probability of occurring is determined by Earth's movement along her orbit; Both of these vary by a FAR greater amount in the East-West direction than they do in the North-South direction.

If you plot a point on the Earth where the impact could occur were the asteroid to arrive just as the Earth does, and then run the clock forward to the time that the asteroid would arrive just too late to catch the Earth on its way past, the resulting set of points would describe a line very much like that shown.

I agree that the degree to which those points conform with the equator seems suspiciously high, and would expect a more pronounced sinusoidal curve across lines of lattitude, for a random impactor; But this isn't a random impactor, and it may be that the specific trajectory information they have really is that neatly aligned with the Earth's equatorial plane.

 

[Swammerdami]

In addition to what bilby wrote, the FINAL trajectory if it DOES collide will be strongly influenced by Earth's own gravity. Earth's pull could reduce the North-South margin. More importantly the (hard-to-predict) TIME it takes to finally spiral into collision would have a big effect on the East-West margin.

 

[barbos]

Can Elon musk make money intercepting asteroids?

Just tell him it's made of rare-earth elements. And he will make sure it's intercepted by Earth.

 

[Shadowy Man]

In addition to what bilby wrote, the FINAL trajectory if it DOES collide will be strongly influenced by Earth's own gravity. Earth's pull could reduce the North-South margin. More importantly the (hard-to-predict) TIME it takes to finally spiral into collision would have a big effect on the East-West margin.

Unless it it already in earth orbit, which it is not, there’s no way a “spiral” is a descriptor of an incoming trajectory. It will basically be a collision of two objects orbiting the sun whose orbits intersect at a point. The earths gravity will have some effect on the incoming trajectory but at the speed it will be coming it wouldn’t have time for that to make large changes in its trajectory. At least that’s my intuition without running the numbers.

 

[Swammerdami]

"Spiral" was a poor word choice. The point is that, with a very flattened trajectory relative to Earth (see attached screenshot from https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/orbit_viewer.html ), a tiny change in initial conditions can introduce much uncertainty. Earth's own gravity will have an effect on the impact.

 

[Elixir]

Earth's own gravity will have an effect on the impact.

Oh, so now it’s an impact eh?
I suppose earth’s gravity will reciprocally have an impact on the effect?