Special Election 2025 Edition

[Jimmy Higgins]

Well, as things change, Special Elections are occurring. Shortly we'll be seeing a couple in Florida including the one to replace that guy that likes to fuck gray area 18 year olds on coke. But first up was some PA Senate seat . Turnout was high (for a special election) in the district Trump won by 15 pts. The race went unopposed in the last general election and an easy 100% to 0% win for the Republican. That guy stepped down. And yesterday? The Democrat won in a narrow victory. This was larger than Lamb's win in Western PA.

Parsons was considered likely to win in the conservative-leaning district, which President Trump carried in November with 57 percent of the vote and McCormick won with 56 percent. Aument had even been unopposed in his last election in 2022.

But Malone was able to overcome the odds, and the Democratic Party continued its strong performance in under-the-radar elections since Trump took office. Democrats notched another major upset in a strongly conservative Iowa state Senate district in January, also holding the Westchester County executive seat in New York, among other more low-key successes.

Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin celebrated Malone’s victory, calling it a “shockwave” to the system and the way Republicans have run the government.

PA is several shades bluer than Florida and this isn't unprecedented for the state, so this carrying over to US House seats shouldn't be considered a fait accompli. But it very likely woke some people up in the RNC. This will be of interest in NY, a state that like PA is bluer than NY. If a Dem can pull this off in PA, they can do it in a more competitive Stefanik district in NY.

I think right now the other message to the liberals is "Get out and fucking vote! The Dems can't do shit if we don't elect them!"

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And as noted above, this result probably made alarm bells go off in the mind of the GOP. And since then, Elise Stefanik is no longer to be the UN Ambassador, as the GOP likely fears her seat is at risk of being turned.

The White House has pulled Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be United Nations ambassador amid worries about the House’s narrow GOP majority, President Donald Trump announced Thursday.

The New York Republican, who had yet to resign her seat, was expected to be easily confirmed to the post, with more than enough votes to pass, but concern about Republicans’ narrow majority stalled her confirmation.

Trump said on Truth Social that he had asked Stefanik to stay in Congress to help him accomplish his agenda, calling her one of his “biggest allies.”

So much for their "mandate".

Meanwhile in Florida, a Take it with Salt Poll, in the special election in Florida, it is "tied" 44 to 44 between the Democrat and Republican. Balance is everything and again... salt... but in their poll, they weighted the GOP at about 50% and the Dems at 27%. SALT!!! but as far as outliers go, if you can get a tie out of that weighting...

Make certain to still hydrate enough after all the salt.

 

[Elixir]

they weighted the GOP at about 50% and the Dems at 27%.

What does “weighted” mean?

 

[jonatha]

they weighted the GOP at about 50% and the Dems at 27%.

What does “weighted” mean?

They assume the electorate consists of 50% registered Republicans and 27% registered Democrats.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

they weighted the GOP at about 50% and the Dems at 27%.

What does “weighted” mean?

They assume the electorate consists of 50% registered Republicans and 27% registered Democrats.

As in, they think the turnout will be that percentage. This would be based on each district and its makeup. It is saltfully hopeful that the GOP to Dem is about 5 to 3, and it comes out tied.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Turnout is allegedly high in Wisconsin which means it is likely that we won't know the results until they are posted. In Wisconsin they are voting for a Supreme Court justice, which used to be about law shit... but now days it is simply partisan shit. GOP wins, Gerrymandering is a go!

Turnout in Florida is unknown.
6th District
1st District

 

[blastula]

6th district stays red.

On bright side, it was 11 point win, where Trump and Waltz won by 30.

In the other FL race, R is up by 3 with 65% counted.

 

[blastula]

And the FL 1st district has also been called for R. But another improvement. 14 point loss right now, where Trump and Gaetz won by over 30.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

FL special elections don't budge much against GOP in a way that matters.

Wisconsin appears to go heavy in favor of liberal / moderate judge.

 

[Derec]

Wisconsin Supreme Court Election:

Susan Crawford: 55%
Brad Schimel: 45%

A decisive loss for the Musk-backed candidate.

However, there was also a referendum on the same ballot over a voter ID requirement. It passed 62.8%-37.2%. Only the Dane County (where Madison is) and Milwaukee County were majority "nay".

I still not understand why many Dems vehemently oppose voter ID requirements. You have to identify yourself for many things in our society. Why should voting, as important as it is, be an exemption?

This, and things like "affirmative action" or trans-women in female sports, should not be hills Dems are willing to die on.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

FFS!

 

[Shadowy Man]

I still not understand why many Dems vehemently oppose voter ID requirements. You have to identify yourself for many things in our society. Why should voting, as important as it is, be an exemption?

Have you tried looking into why they oppose it? If you do there are some downsides to it. And there are very few upsides as in-person voter fraud is virtually non-existent. It’s a solution looking for a problem, and the potential to disenfranchise legal voters is much greater than its ability to stop fraudulent voting.

 

[ZiprHead]

I still not understand why many Dems vehemently oppose voter ID requirements. You have to identify yourself for many things in our society. Why should voting, as important as it is, be an exemption?

Have you tried looking into why they oppose it? If you do there are some downsides to it. And there are very few upsides as in-person voter fraud is virtually non-existent. It’s a solution looking for a problem, and the potential to disenfranchise legal voters is much greater than its ability to stop fraudulent voting.

Yup, just another means of Republicans limiting the votes of "those people."

 

[Derec]

Have you tried looking into why they oppose it?

Yes, we have discussed this issue at some length over the years.

If you do there are some downsides to it. And there are very few upsides as in-person voter fraud is virtually non-existent. It’s a solution looking for a problem, and the potential to disenfranchise legal voters is much greater than its ability to stop fraudulent voting.

Is it? How many people don't have government ID or can't obtain one easily? Especially since government id is needed to function in society anyway.
I like this video on the issue:


Also, my point specifically in this thread was to highlight how unpopular this stance is. Dems clinging to some stances that are popular with the activist classes and very unpopular with the actual electorate is like a millstone around their necks.

Look at WI election results. If we assume that pretty much all Schimel voters voted "yea" on voter id, that means that still about a third of Crawford voters voted for voter ID. As I said, not a hill to die on for Democrats. Same can be said for things like "affirmative action", which lost decisively in a referendum in, of all places, California. And also in a year where the political climate was very favorable to such race issues.
And yet, Biden decried the long overdue decision to ban most "affirmative action".

 

[Derec]

Yup, just another means of Republicans limiting the votes of "those people."

Who are "those people"? People too apathetic or incompetent to operate a blanket obtain government id?

Or do you mean particular racial groups as "those people"? And if so, why do you think they do not have the ability to get id?

 

[TV and credit cards]

I like this video on the issue:

Well of course you do.

Let's go to Berkeley, paste together some comments from people who will argue any issue, real or imagined, just for the sake of arguing and then go present these comments to normal people who have lives and better things to do with their time. Like the one lady said, "What people are they talking to?" Exactly. And who creates this crap? People who make money off it.
It is estimated 1% of the adult population do not have ID. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the overwhelming majority of them do not vote nor do they have any interest in voting.
It's not a solution looking for a problem. If it's anything it's marketing. It's brand recognition. It's media making money. It's politicians getting their name out there. And it's an audience who need another hobby.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yup, just another means of Republicans limiting the votes of "those people."

Who are "those people"? People too apathetic or incompetent to operate a blanket obtain government id?

Or disabeled or lacking in resources? Your empathy needs to extend beyond your self interest if you want to understand.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Wisconsin Supreme Court Election:

Susan Crawford: 55%
Brad Schimel: 45%

A decisive loss for the Musk-backed candidate.

However, there was also a referendum on the same ballot over a voter ID requirement. It passed 62.8%-37.2%. Only the Dane County (where Madison is) and Milwaukee County were majority "nay".

I still not understand why many Dems vehemently oppose voter ID requirements. You have to identify yourself for many things in our society. Why should voting, as important as it is, be an exemption?

This, and things like "affirmative action" or trans-women in female sports, should not be hills Dems are willing to die on.

Voter ID requirements are about disenfranchising the poor. That's why the Republicans are adamant about them and the Democrats oppose them. The Felon "won" in 2016 because of such disenfranchising. Some years back my wife didn't get around to putting the time into renewing her ID--went years with it expired and it didn't matter. Only once did something come up that actually required valid ID and she got out her passport for that. Once your life is established it's quite possible to live without needing ID other than for the purpose of driving.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Yup, just another means of Republicans limiting the votes of "those people."

Who are "those people"? People too apathetic or incompetent to operate a blanket obtain government id?

Or do you mean particular racial groups as "those people"? And if so, why do you think they do not have the ability to get id?

You realize obtaining it can be decidedly non-trivial? A quick check shows our rural counties average a bit over half an office per county. And the Real-ID crap cost my wife a few hundred dollars (and that was the DIY route, a lawyer would have cost more) and several trips to Social Security to fix a tiny error from 30 years ago.

And remember we used to have a guy on here who simply couldn't obtain an ID? Doc yanked his license (legitimately, but he wasn't driving anyway), he had no other ID. He couldn't sign the form to get a copy of his birth certificate to get a new ID. Catch-22.

How many purses are stolen with all the ID a person has in them? That's not just go down to DMV to get a replacement.

 

[Toni]

Wisconsin Supreme Court Election:

Susan Crawford: 55%
Brad Schimel: 45%

A decisive loss for the Musk-backed candidate.

However, there was also a referendum on the same ballot over a voter ID requirement. It passed 62.8%-37.2%. Only the Dane County (where Madison is) and Milwaukee County were majority "nay".

I still not understand why many Dems vehemently oppose voter ID requirements. You have to identify yourself for many things in our society. Why should voting, as important as it is, be an exemption?

This, and things like "affirmative action" or trans-women in female sports, should not be hills Dems are willing to die on.

Those two counties are Wisconsin’s most populous counties.