We are on the Verge of Economic Catastrophe

[Elixir]

bad economic news is coming down the pike as Trump and Doge run the government into the ground and it cannot function

That was the idea all along.
Pretend you're Putin, and were just appointed POTUS.
What would you do differently?
NOTHING.

The trick is to heat the pot as quickly as possible without inspiring any frogs to jump out.

 

[SLD]

bad economic news is coming down the pike as Trump and Doge run the government into the ground and it cannot function

That was the idea all along.
Pretend you're Putin, and were just appointed POTUS.
What would you do differently?
NOTHING.

The trick is to heat the pot as quickly as possible without inspiring any frogs to jump out.

We have to jump as much as we can - protest, vote, organize.

 

[bilby]

So today it’s up over 1,000 because of hope that a trade war will be averted. It probably will. Trump knows he cannot weather another serious market setback. He’ll drop the tariffs significantly, or put in so many loopholes that they’ll effectively be non existent.

At this point, it hardly matters. The problem is no longer the existence of the tariffs, so much as it is the uncertainty about what this capricious fool might do next. A full recovery would require his replacement by somebody who, if not necessarily sane, would at least be predictable.

 

[Elixir]

A full recovery would require his replacement by somebody who, if not necessarily sane, would at least be predictable.

He is hoisted by his own petard now. Anything he changes to make anything better or worse, will just make things worse in the long run. And the longer he tries to keep the chickens from coming home to roost, the harder it gets to blame Biden.

That’s cold comfort, now that he has destroyed our country.

 

[SLD]

A full recovery would require his replacement by somebody who, if not necessarily sane, would at least be predictable.

He is hoisted by his own petard now. Anything he changes to make anything better or worse, will just make things worse in the long run. And the longer he tries to keep the chickens from coming home to roost, the harder it gets to blame Biden.

That’s cold comfort, now that he has destroyed our country.

Look on the bright side; people will do well, rebuilding the country.

 

[bilby]

He is hoisted by his own petard now. Anything he changes to make anything better or worse, will just make things worse in the long run.

And in the short run, too. The one thing the markets hate above all else is uncertainty; For the markets to mount a solid recovery, he would have to leave things the fuck alone, for a long time, until Wall Street feel that they can trust him to do so indefinitely.

 

[bilby]

A full recovery would require his replacement by somebody who, if not necessarily sane, would at least be predictable.

He is hoisted by his own petard now. Anything he changes to make anything better or worse, will just make things worse in the long run. And the longer he tries to keep the chickens from coming home to roost, the harder it gets to blame Biden.

That’s cold comfort, now that he has destroyed our country.

Look on the bright side; people will do well, rebuilding the country.

Eventually.

WWII was great for the German and Japanese economies, thirty or forty years after the event. At the time, not such a great time to be German or Japanese though.

 

[Elixir]

Some are already thinking that

He is hoisted by his own petard now. Anything he changes to make anything better or worse, will just make things worse in the long run.

And in the short run, too. The one thing the markets hate above all else is uncertainty; For the markets to mount a solid recovery, he would have to leave things the fuck alone, for a long time, until Wall Street feel that they can trust him to do so indefinitely.

It’s like loading up a crossbow.
By 2028 the tension will be so high and things will be so bad that it will be easy for Trump to send the markets soaring, send everyone a big albeit devalued check, and get the DOW back up to its 2024 levels before the election, ensuring his third electoral victory. (Assuming he doesn’t have to expend too much political capital in 2026…)

A thing to watch is unemployment.

 

[Tigers!]

bad economic news is coming down the pike as Trump and Doge run the government into the ground and it cannot function

That was the idea all along.
Pretend you're Putin, and were just appointed POTUS.
What would you do differently?
NOTHING.

The trick is to heat the pot as quickly as possible without inspiring any frogs to jump out.

We have to jump as much as we can - protest, vote, organize.

There was the chance to vote in Nov. last year and 90 million of you could not be bothered.

 

[Elixir]

bad economic news is coming down the pike as Trump and Doge run the government into the ground and it cannot function

That was the idea all along.
Pretend you're Putin, and were just appointed POTUS.
What would you do differently?
NOTHING.

The trick is to heat the pot as quickly as possible without inspiring any frogs to jump out.

We have to jump as much as we can - protest, vote, organize.

There was the chance to vote in Nov. last year and 90 million of you could not be bothered.

Hey, they only let me vote once.
What a fascist shithole!

 

[ImGod]

Pre orders were up this year. But the drop in shipping is coming. So there will be warehoused goods, likely sold with tariffs prices in mind, then a drop in inventory to low levels since there is no certainty.

Ports, trains, trucking out of ports will he hit first. Trucking from warehouses will stay steady for a while then drop. Stores will store what they can on the floors then inventory will drop.

Look for Trump to talk a lot about Xi and China (or Asia in general) making a deal in the next couple of weeks. If they don't deal in the next month, the US consumer may finally start seeing it at the stores through higher prices and lack of inventory by summer.

Only if we hold firm when China says no, will we know if the US is patrotic enough to do without and pull ourselves up by our bootstraps. Something, something.

US stores will be in a holding pattern on future orders until they have more clarity on tariffs and timing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/busiest-us-ports-see-big-drop-in-chinese-freight-vessel-traffic.html

 

[ImGod]

I doubt this is what China would agree to as some sort of "deal". My guess is the administration is negotiating with itself to save face, limit stagflation, and help bolster the stock markets. "Hey look tariffs we imposed are lower, we won". Or something.

"Trump has imposed ultra-high tariffs on China, of 145%. Shortly before Bessent spoke on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was considering reducing those tariffs to between 50% and 65%, which would still be extremely high, relatively speaking."

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/bessent-china-tariffs-trade-trump.html

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

China isn't blinking. When the Trump Admin went up to 145%, that was a signal to China that Dr. Tarr and Prof. Fether were running the White House, and any talks would be stupid, just on the face of it. Forget the entire lack of respect issue as well. So, as you note, the Trump Admin is adjusting the message because the earlier stuff was a complete failure and the real world repercussions of the tariffs are starting to have an impact.

This feels much like their posturing on Ukraine/Russia where no where cares what the US thinks (or what the Trump Admin thinks). Everyone knows they are barging in and using stolen valor to try and be the big dogs that must be obeyed, but they are only barking loudly, not actually trying to negotiate a thing, and no one cares.

Reducing the tariff from 145% to 65% would be near insulting to China, as it would imply that the Chinese are idiots who think this the US acting rationally.

 

[Swammerdami]

While clearing out my tabs I noticed a month-old article:

If you think the U.S. dollar can't fall a long way, think again.
...
This is the absolutely essential context for understanding the Trump administration's economic, financial and trade policies ...

Where will it lead? Place your bet. One of my go-to gurus this week, after begging me "find a way to quote me so that I won't get murdered in the streets," said Trump was successfully bringing on a U.S. economic recession both to plunge the dollar and to bring down long-term interest rates. This, he added, was critical to passing his big tax cut bill. The U.S. government cannot afford to finance its massive deficits and enormous national debt at current interest rates.

"Trump and the Treasury Secretary want yields down in a recessionary chaotic environment to justify passing their tax plan," he says. "It does appear that he needs chaos to get his tax plan passed."

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that making the 2017 Trump tax cuts effectively permanent would add another $37 trillion to the national debt over the next 30 years.

 

[BH]

I personally don't think the economy, if judging and defining good by what it was thirty or forty years ago, will ever be great again. We are going back to what we had before World War Two. Most people will earn enough to clothe and feed themselves and have a few luxuries but not a lot, a very few will be "middle class" working directly right under rich people, and an even smaller group will be very well off.

 

[Elixir]

I personally don't think the economy, if judging and defining good by what it was thirty or forty years ago, will ever be great again. We are going back to what we had before World War Two. Most people will earn enough to clothe and feed themselves and have a few luxuries but not a lot, a very few will be "middle class" working directly right under rich people, and an even smaller group will be very well off.

Russia is the model.
It's the only way Donald the Hutt is ever going to surpass Uncle Vlad's wealth, or even get in the same class. The direct grift is already the prevailing dynamic:
Give the candidate a quarter b and get him to shut off Chinese tech so you can sell your shit. It's the underlying principle of kleptocracy in a democratic government; nationalizing all private businesses without nationalizing anything at all.
If you don't get the re$pect you deserve from them, crush them like a bug and get a great big thank$! from the former competitors.

 

[Axulus]

 

[SLD]

Well, another big drop,already in the markets today. DOW drops 500 to start.

This is based on news that both the economy shrank and payroll growth was half the expected value. The economy shrank by 0.3% against an expected growth of a mere 0.2%. Payroll growth was expected to grow by 120,000, but instead only grew by 62,000. Inflation shows no sign of easing either. That’s not a good look.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/gdp-q1-us-economy-contracts-rcna203608

But that hasn’t stopped MAGATS from touting the so called winning that Trump is doing.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/steve-moore-9-top-trump-economy-wins-after-his-first-100-days

I’m sure the MAGATS will just say, the markets will come back, no big deal, just like in Trump’s first term! And I am sure the markets will have some up days in the coming weeks. But if you look carefully at the data since he’s taken office, it’s a negative downward trend. The ups are not nearly as strong as the downs.

 

[Elixir]

I'm meeting with my financial advisor tomorrow, and plan to get a lesson in Index shorts.
I'm feeling slightly confident right now, that if I take a contract to sell shares of an index fund at today's prices in November or early December, there will be some margin there. And if not, that would mean the markets have gone up despite Trump's antics, and I can afford to lose whatever I gamble today. Make sense as a hedge right now? I don't recall ever being so sure that the markets were headed for as-yet-unrealized trouble.

 

[SLD]

I'm meeting with my financial advisor tomorrow, and plan to get a lesson in Index shorts.
I'm feeling slightly confident right now, that if I take a contract to sell shares of an index fund at today's prices in November or early December, there will be some margin there. And if not, that would mean the markets have gone up despite Trump's antics, and I can afford to lose whatever I gamble today. Make sense as a hedge right now? I don't recall ever being so sure that the markets were headed for as-yet-unrealized trouble.

While I agree, I’m hesitant to predict. You and I don’t like Trump and feel sure his policies will fail. But he’s not a complete idiot - well, some of his people aren’t - he knows he has to deliver the goods economically. That’s why he reversed his policies when the markets reacted badly.

But there’s only so much he can do. The policies that he hasn’t reversed like continued tax cuts for the wealthy, gutting the federal government, and going after undocumented immigrants have the more potential to hurt the economy but they will take longer to unfold. Everyone is focused on tariffs but they’re not coming back and I expect Trump will effectively surrender after a few months and reverse his policies, and claim he got a great deal for us. Bullshit of course, but the markets could react positively to the news.

But it’s the longer run policies I am concerned about. America has an aging demographic and we need new workers to support us. Income inequality is continuing to rise because of low marginal tax rates. We are having trouble funding our debt as the fed has been forced to raise interest rates. These are the real factors that could cause economic collapse. What happens when we basically can’t afford our debt anymore? How will we fund social security? What will happen when people can’t access their social security because of Musk’s cuts? What will happen to our deficit when people realize they can get away with cheating on their taxes because of cuts to the IRS?