We are on the Verge of Economic Catastrophe

[Elixir]

I’m hesitant to predict. You and I don’t like Trump and feel sure his policies will fail. But he’s not a complete idiot - well, some of his people aren’t - he knows he has to deliver the goods economically. That’s why he reversed his policies when the markets reacted badly.

Spot on. That’s why I would NOT bet on a longer term decline. The pre-Christmas pain is already set in motion, though, and I don’t think he can prevent it.
There is little doubt that prior to the 2016 midterms Trump will pull whatever strings necessary to make the markets appear to be recovering. But for now, the table is set for a big fat poisonous meal.

Since my last post I found out that a 3/4 acre waterfront property that is adjacent to mine, has come up for sale and I have committed to making a quarter m offer on it. It might not be worth that much to anyone else, but it would provide me alternative access to my existing 15 acre property and enable its eventual subdivision, which will greatly increase its value. But it might reduce my willingness to gamble on the markets …

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It certainly is impossible to predict. Shorting on Indices is playing with fire as Trump can reverse on any reckless policy at a moment's notice and few will step in to try and stop it.

 

[SLD]

What a dumbass.

 

[pood]

We are living either in an Onion satire, or a Kafka metaphysical labyrinth. Or maybe both.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I'm meeting with my financial advisor tomorrow, and plan to get a lesson in Index shorts.
I'm feeling slightly confident right now, that if I take a contract to sell shares of an index fund at today's prices in November or early December, there will be some margin there. And if not, that would mean the markets have gone up despite Trump's antics, and I can afford to lose whatever I gamble today. Make sense as a hedge right now? I don't recall ever being so sure that the markets were headed for as-yet-unrealized trouble.

And the experts aren't going to guess better than you?

All forms of shorts and the like are effectively a zero-sum game played against the top people in the world. The only way you can expect to win is if you know things they don't--and that tends to be privileged information that's going to get you in SEC trouble if you use it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

We are living either in an Onion satire, or a Kafka metaphysical labyrinth. Or maybe both.

Chinese news repeatedly has treated Onion stories as real. Apparently we did the same thing.

 

[Elixir]

And the experts aren't going to guess better than you?

Experts don't generally indulge in long options at times like this, and specialists may or may not conform to my convictions.
My broker dude flat declined to offer any advice or even any way to get advice on it. And he's a old friend who has been doing the stuff for decades for a huge brokerage. I don't personally know people at Schwab but I have an acct there too, and I know they will at least have a way to track prices... obviously I will risk little, expecting to lose it all if I'm wrong. Just don't want to be on the hook for more than I put up, but have a chance to multiply it if my bet is out of the mainstream.
Alternately, I could sell the contract and if the premium hadn't changed much I'd only be out the difference. I've done that exactly once in my life, and lost most of the 1500 I "bet" ... and that was ... 1989? Kinda left me with a bad taste.

 

[Elixir]

All forms of shorts and the like are effectively a zero-sum game played against the top people in the world.

Opportunity arises when uncertainty peaks. Top people in the world don't like uncertainty - it's their living to have certainty.
I don't need certainty if I risk a few buck every quarter century.
I think that the value of a contract to lose in November is greater than what an expert would offer right now. Once I find out what the options options really are, and true exposure I will incur to make a bet, I can make an informed decision. If it turns out that it will take a crash of 1929 proportions to make any money on it because "experts" have already driven up the price, I'll be surprised. I'll also be surprised if such contracts are virtually given away, but I think they'll go up. No way do I want to hold any contract to fulfillment.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Well, another 900 point drop in the Dow today. Nothing to worry about! Just a minor correction.

In other news (completely unrelated), Tesla shares fell another 15% today. It's now less than 50% of it December 2024 high. Protestors are in part to blame too. Protests at dealerships and vandalism against Teslas, aka Swasticars, are driving people away - people just are not going to take the risk. A 50% drop in sales in Europe. UBS says it has not reached bottom yet. Hardly surprising considering its PE ratio is still over 100. GM's is 7.5.

Not that Leon Kums is going to be significantly effected. He's having too much fun destroying our federal government and social security to notice.

I'd venture to guess other Tesla investors, especially those upper management employees who hold Tesla stock aren't too crazy about Musk right now. I wonder if they'd like to do the "no confidence" thing and boot him as CEO. I think he owns like 14% of the shares. He's got to be killing Tesla's demographic. I don't know. I suppose Tesla owners are mostly in CA. I see a Tesla about as often as I see a car with hubcaps.

What did I tell you?
What
did
I
tell
you?

Tesla’s chair Robyn Denholm has rejected a Wall Street Journal report that the company’s board has begun a search process for a new CEO to replace Elon Musk.

The Journal reported Wednesday that Tesla’s board contacted executive placement firms in March to look for Musk’s replacement, citing multiple unnamed sources.

Well I guess the Wall Street Journal made it up out of whole cloth.

 

[crazyfingers]

Well, another 900 point drop in the Dow today. Nothing to worry about! Just a minor correction.

In other news (completely unrelated), Tesla shares fell another 15% today. It's now less than 50% of it December 2024 high. Protestors are in part to blame too. Protests at dealerships and vandalism against Teslas, aka Swasticars, are driving people away - people just are not going to take the risk. A 50% drop in sales in Europe. UBS says it has not reached bottom yet. Hardly surprising considering its PE ratio is still over 100. GM's is 7.5.

Not that Leon Kums is going to be significantly effected. He's having too much fun destroying our federal government and social security to notice.

I'd venture to guess other Tesla investors, especially those upper management employees who hold Tesla stock aren't too crazy about Musk right now. I wonder if they'd like to do the "no confidence" thing and boot him as CEO. I think he owns like 14% of the shares. He's got to be killing Tesla's demographic. I don't know. I suppose Tesla owners are mostly in CA. I see a Tesla about as often as I see a car with hubcaps.

What did I tell you?
What
did
I
tell
you?

Tesla’s chair Robyn Denholm has rejected a Wall Street Journal report that the company’s board has begun a search process for a new CEO to replace Elon Musk.

The Journal reported Wednesday that Tesla’s board contacted executive placement firms in March to look for Musk’s replacement, citing multiple unnamed sources.

Well I guess the Wall Street Journal made it up out of whole cloth.

I see a lot of Teslas in Massachusetts. When I go out probably a couple or 3 a day. Trump and Musk are not popular here and I'll bet sales in Massachusetts are way down.

There is no doubt in my mind that Musk has ruined the Tesla brand here. Whether Tesla can fix it by firing Musk I have no idea. There are plenty of other choices besides Tesla now.

However if I was a shareholder I'd sure be looking to show Musk the door. No way that Tesla will recover with Musk still in charge.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[TSwizzle]

Nasdaq soars, Dow pops, one of them had its longest winning streak since 2024. Nice.

 

[jonatha]

Nasdaq soars, Dow pops

Whopee!

 

[jonatha]

 

[SLD]

Nasdaq soars, Dow pops, one of them had its longest winning streak since 2024. Nice.

But this is Biden’s market. He just said so.

 

[Elixir]

Nasdaq soars, Dow pops, one of them had its longest winning streak since 2024. Nice.

But this is Biden’s market. He just said so.

It alternates day by day.
If it goes up, that’s a Trump market. Goes down - FUCKING BIDEN!!
Trumptards are a bit fickle.

 

[crazyfingers]

Nasdaq soars, Dow pops, one of them had its longest winning streak since 2024. Nice.

I knew I had you on ignore for a good reason. Are you just trolling? My investments are down so far into Trump's term and have lost a good several hundred thousand dollars.

And if he doesn't blink and rescind his Trumpid tariffs in July I'm sure they will lose a lot more.

Trumpid = Stupid

 

[TSwizzle]

Nasdaq soars, Dow pops, one of them had its longest winning streak since 2024. Nice.

{snip}My investments are down so far into Trump's term and have lost a good several hundred thousand dollars.

So are mine. The stock market has been volatile since the initial announcement of the tariffs.

 

[Elixir]

Nasdaq soars, Dow pops, one of them had its longest winning streak since 2024. Nice.

{snip}My investments are down so far into Trump's term and have lost a good several hundred thousand dollars.

So are mine. The stock market has been volatile since the initial announcement of the tariffs.

I sold off in January and am actually slightly up since the Apricot’s economic idiocy.
I am surprised how many people “knew” it was coming, and still sat pat on their hand.

 

[SLD]

Nasdaq soars, Dow pops, one of them had its longest winning streak since 2024. Nice.

{snip}My investments are down so far into Trump's term and have lost a good several hundred thousand dollars.

So are mine. The stock market has been volatile since the initial announcement of the tariffs.

I sold off in January and am actually slightly up since the Apricot’s economic idiocy.
I am surprised how many people “knew” it was coming, and still sat pat on their hand.

A lot of us can’t sell. The tax consequences would be much higher than the drop in asset prices. But it is close.