How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jimmy Higgins]

Kyiv Post claims SBU has hit the Kerch bridge again, using explosives underwater on the support(s) and that the bridge is no longer “safe for use”.

No longer safe for use? That is quite the spin on "we didn't destroy it".

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So, we waited for confirmation on damage. Ukraine said beaucoup, Russia said mostly nothing. The truth?

At least 13 aircraft were damaged in Ukraine’s attack Sunday on military bases deep inside Russia, according to a Washington Post review of verified video and satellite imagery.

The damaged planes included at least eight Tu-95 bombers, long-range aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons, experts said. These planes have been frequently used in Russia’s aerial campaign against Ukraine, according to Will Goodhind, a geospatial analyst at Contested Ground, a research project that uses satellite imagery to track armed conflict.

“As a Soviet-era aircraft, they are no longer in production and cannot be replaced,” Goodhind said. “Some estimates indicate that Russia has only 50 operational TU-95 in service, meaning that the loss of even a handful would be keenly felt.”

So, not one third, but for a nit and pick type of attack, pretty damn impressive... and scary in the sense of imagine what highly competent militaries can do (China, US) or lesser competent but highly motivated (Iran, Russia).

 

[barbos]

The big issue is that want Ukraine to disarm. No more defense and or intelligence help, troop reduction to 50,000 soldiers. This will allow Russia to easily conquer all of Ukraine once their army is reconstituted.

If they don't agree We are going to conquer them anyway. And we are going to hunt down their top government motherfuckers and execute them.

 

[Ovazor]

The big issue is that want Ukraine to disarm. No more defense and or intelligence help, troop reduction to 50,000 soldiers. This will allow Russia to easily conquer all of Ukraine once their army is reconstituted.

If they don't agree We are going to conquer them anyway. And we are going to hunt down their top government motherfuckers and execute them.

That was the plan for day three. It is now day 1196.

 

[barbos]

So, not one third, but for a nit and pick type of attack, pretty damn impressive

It seems they destroyed 3 Tu-95, the rest is damaged and can be repaired.
Tu-22s damaged/destroyed were older variants which are used for training only.
They attacked 5 airfields. 3 attacks were complete failures, 1 partial failure, one in Irkutsk was a success. The reason they succeeded in Irkutsk as opposed to closer to Ukraine airfields is becasue they were not expecting it and were totally unprepared.
In PR terms it is a win, in terms of actual damage non-consequential.
Tu-95 are are very old planes and the only reason they are still in service is becasue they are the only platform for launching old huge soviet era cruise missiles which we still have in stock.
Once these missiles are used on Kiev, the planes will retired.

Interesting question whether or not Trump/Vance were informed. US intelligence obviously knew everything and british clearly took part in the operation. But Trump never attends these briefings.
Vance probably attends but apparently he could not stop it himself. Which is weird considering that he can simply call Trump. If by some miracle nobody in US/GB knew anything then we have a puppet which clearly lost its mind. Either way, it looks bad on Trump.

 

[barbos]

The big issue is that want Ukraine to disarm. No more defense and or intelligence help, troop reduction to 50,000 soldiers. This will allow Russia to easily conquer all of Ukraine once their army is reconstituted.

If they don't agree We are going to conquer them anyway. And we are going to hunt down their top government motherfuckers and execute them.

That was the plan for day three. It is now day 1196.

No, it was not.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So, not one third, but for a nit and pick type of attack, pretty damn impressive

It seems they destroyed 3 Tu-95, the rest is damaged and can be repaired.
Tu-22s damaged/destroyed were older variants which are used for training only.
They attacked 5 airfields. 3 attacks were complete failures, 1 partial failure, one in Irkutsk was a success. The reason they succeeded in Irkutsk as opposed to closer to Ukraine airfields is becasue they were not expecting it and were totally unprepared.
In PR terms it is a win, in terms of actual damage non-consequential.

They destroyed three Tu-95, according to you. That isn't the end of the Russian Air Force, but for Ukraine to destroy any Tu-95's is notable.

Tu-95 are are very old planes and the only reason they are still in service is becasue they are the only platform for launching old huge soviet era cruise missiles which we still have in stock.
Once these missiles are used on Kiev, the planes will retired.

Good ole Russian massacre of the Slavs. At one point Russia felt otherwise about Slavs being massacred.

Interesting question whether or not Trump/Vance were informed. US intelligence obviously knew everything and british clearly took part in the operation. But Trump never attends these briefings.

Ukraine ain't telling the Trump Admin anything that is super-secret.

 

[TV and credit cards]

What got hit on the Kerch Strait Bridge and with what.
It'd be cool if Ukraine could get some underwater video of the damage.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

This is a bit off. If they targeted the pile cap, then it is possible that a portion of the piles supporting the bridge aren't support it now*, if the structural connection has been destroyed.

Based on the initial Ukrainian call on this, they said the bridge was made unsafe for use, which is a pretty odd spin. Ukraine is going to exaggerate, so to me that meant the bridge isn't in grave danger of collapse. An explosion like this wouldn't impact the piles themselves all too much as the soil would provide support. They need to take out the cap which would drop the pier and collapse. Or destroying the pier eliminates load transfer and drops the span.

 

[Elixir]

This is a bit off. If they targeted the pile cap, then it is possible that a portion of the piles supporting the bridge aren't support it now*, if the structural connection has been destroyed.

Based on the initial Ukrainian call on this, they said the bridge was made unsafe for use, which is a pretty odd spin. Ukraine is going to exaggerate, so to me that meant the bridge isn't in grave danger of collapse. An explosion like this wouldn't impact the piles themselves all too much as the soil would provide support. They need to take out the cap which would drop the pier and collapse. Or destroying the pier eliminates load transfer and drops the span.

Be that as it may … if heavy equipment traffic resumes we will know one thing, if it doesn’t, we will know something else.
Either way it’s not going to effect public support for Putin’s megalomania, and that is the only thing that might deter him.

 

[steve_bank]

From reporting the Russian economy did not collapse, but it has converted to full scale war production. Not sustainable.

Agriculture

Russia's agricultural sector faces numerous challenges including labor shortages, storage and transportation issues, and the impact of climate change. Furthermore, sanctions, high interest rates, and reliance on imports contribute to a deepening crisis. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated these issues, disrupting supply chains and impacting international trade.
Here's a more detailed look at the key issues:


1. Labor Shortages:

A chronic shortage of skilled workers, including agricultural laborers, is a major problem.

Mobilization for the war in Ukraine has further exacerbated the shortage, impacting farm labor.

2. Storage and Transportation Infrastructure:

Russia lacks modern storage facilities, particularly for fruits and vegetables, leading to spoilage and losses.

Problems with grain storage and transportation also hinder the sector.
Inadequate transportation infrastructure, including roads and rail, impacts the delivery of inputs and outputs.

3. Climate Change Impacts:

Droughts and other extreme weather events, particularly in the southern regions, threaten crop yields.

Increasing arability in Siberia may offer long-term opportunities, but requires managing migration flows and land use.

4. Sanctions and Economic Factors:

Sanctions have disrupted supply chains for machinery, fertilizers, and seeds, impacting Russian farmers.

High interest rates and rising costs for fuel and fertilizers increase the cost of production.
Export tariffs and price controls hinder investments in infrastructure and inputs.

5. Dependence on Imports:

Russia imports a significant portion of its food products, including fruits, vegetables, and processed foods, creating a trade imbalance.

Reliance on imported seeds and machinery makes the sector vulnerable to disruptions in global markets.

6. Conflict in Ukraine:

The conflict has disrupted trade routes, particularly for exports of grain and other agricultural products.

Sanctions and the war have also impacted Russia's ability to import essential inputs.

7. Other Issues:

Low level of production of certain commodities.

Technological development of the sector remains low.
Pest and disease issues can also impact yields and quality.
The lack of farmer associations and cooperatives hinders collective action and investment in infrastructure.
High costs for purchasing agricultural equipment, including utilized equipment, also pose a challenge.

Early in the war Russia began taking Ukrainian farm equipment and grain.

That Putin would wants Ukraine farm land makes sense. Ukraine is a producer of fertilizer.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-harvester-maker-suspends-production-demand-farmers-collapses-2025-05-16/

May 16, 20257:25 AM PDTUpdated 19 days ago
MOSCOW, May 16 (Reuters) - Russia's largest maker of combine harvesters and tractors, Rostselmash, said on Friday the demand for its machines has collapsed, forcing it to suspend production from June and cut costs, since farmers have no money to buy new equipment.
Rostselmash said it will send all its workers on mandatory leave starting in June, before the harvesting season begins, moving the leave forward from August and September as in previous years.

Russia's agricultural sector faces significant soil degradation, including erosion and depletion of organic matter. Extensive land degradation, particularly in the southern regions and areas with Chernozem soils, is a major concern. Factors like outdated farming practices, insufficient fertilizer use, and weakened land protection efforts contribute to these issues.
Elaboration:

Soil Erosion:
A significant portion of Russian agricultural land is affected by erosion, both water and wind erosion. Water erosion is a dominant factor, particularly in regions with heavy rainfall.

Chernozem Degradation:
Chernozem, or black earth, is a highly fertile soil type found in Russia, and it's being significantly impacted by erosion.
Organic Matter Depletion:
The average annual deficit of humus, a key component of organic matter, in the arable layer is a concern.
Outdated Practices:
Simplified agricultural technologies, insufficient fertilizer application, and inadequate plant protection measures contribute to soil degradation.
Land Protection Weakening:
Reduced state control over land use and protection further exacerbates the problem.
Impacts:
Soil degradation negatively affects crop yields, overall agricultural productivity, and the long-term health of the agricultural system.

If the goal of Putin is to bring back the Soviet Union he is succeeding. Gross incompetence in agriculture.

Yes, Russia is experiencing a food shortage, particularly with potatoes, due to a poor harvest and reduced imports. President Putin has publicly acknowledged the crisis. While Russia is self-sufficient in many staple food items, the shortage of potatoes has led to record-breaking price increases.
Elaboration:

Potato Shortage:
The primary issue is a severe potato shortage, with prices nearly tripling year-on-year. This is attributed to last year's poor harvest and reduced imports from Belarus.

Putin's Acknowledgment:
President Putin has publicly recognized the crisis, acknowledging that the situation is serious.
Impact on Russian Households:
The price increases strain Russian households, as potatoes are a staple food.
Government Response:
The government is taking steps to address the situation, including duty-free imports of poultry and urgent egg imports from Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Global Context:
The war in Ukraine has also contributed to global food insecurity, including disruptions to food supply chains and rising prices.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[bilby]

The big issue is that want Ukraine to disarm. No more defense and or intelligence help, troop reduction to 50,000 soldiers. This will allow Russia to easily conquer all of Ukraine once their army is reconstituted.

If they don't agree We are going to conquer them anyway. And we are going to hunt down their top government motherfuckers and execute them.

 

[bilby]

The big issue is that want Ukraine to disarm. No more defense and or intelligence help, troop reduction to 50,000 soldiers. This will allow Russia to easily conquer all of Ukraine once their army is reconstituted.

If they don't agree We are going to conquer them anyway. And we are going to hunt down their top government motherfuckers and execute them.

That was the plan for day three. It is now day 1196.

No, it was not.

"We didn't want to win. But now they have pissed us off. They had better not do that again, or we might start trying to win!"

Dude, if you could "conquer them anyway", you would have done so, long ago.

Your army has been proven impotent, and your threats empty.

 

[steve_bank]

The thread should be re-tititled as What The West Should Have Done.

 

[barbos]

 

[barbos]

The big issue is that want Ukraine to disarm. No more defense and or intelligence help, troop reduction to 50,000 soldiers. This will allow Russia to easily conquer all of Ukraine once their army is reconstituted.

If they don't agree We are going to conquer them anyway. And we are going to hunt down their top government motherfuckers and execute them.

That was the plan for day three. It is now day 1196.

No, it was not.

"We didn't want to win. But now they have pissed us off. They had better not do that again, or we might start trying to win!"

Dude, if you could "conquer them anyway", you would have done so, long ago.

Your army has been proven impotent, and your threats empty.

Bullshit.

 

[barbos]

LOL, As if anybody wants to go there.

 

[barbos]

 

[barbos]

LOL:
Huge nazi scum fail in Istanbul. Nazi terrorist regime handed their variant of "Memorandum"
written in ukrainian and english. Problem is, it was actually written in russian and translated to ukrainian by ..... google-translate:

В Стамбуле украинцы выдали меморандум на мове, переведённой с русского - Новости Рязанской области, России и мира!

Очередной казус с «мовой» произошёл во время второго раунда российско-украинских переговоров, прошедших 2 июня в Стамбуле. Делегация Украины демонстративно вручила российской стороне меморандум, напечатанный на украинском и английском языках, намеренно избегая русского. Документ был передан...

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