How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

Meanwhile Russia forces started to bomb the shit out of Ukrainian energy systems including railroads.
Green goblin has let his mouth run too much.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Yikes, how self-deluded is this?!! Barbos accuses Nato of being imperialist, despite the fact that Nato has not taken a square inch of Russia!

Patently false. NATO took Ukraine which is Russia.

Patently false. Just because Russia owned it at one point doesn't make it part of Russia.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Russia wants war or ‘war’ as a distraction fir how badly Putin is failing his country.

Plus they’d like a sea access….

Disagree. Russia wants all those minerals. They thought it would be easy.

And now Russia can't afford to lose because that would show their army to be a paper tiger and likely cause other provinces to rebel. Ukraine is Alderaan.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The nuclear threat is Putin holding a gun to his own head.

Fanatics who are genuinely prepared to die, as long as they take a lot of others with them, are rare; The 9/11 hijackers are the exception that proves the rule. Putin is not a religious fanatic in that mould - he doesn't anticipate paradise for his martyrdom.

He won't use his nukes, even if he has any that still work, because he knows that a few minutes after he does, he, his family, his friends (if any), his armies, and their immediate environs, will be rapidly expanding clouds of radioactive gas and dust.

At least, I hope he knows that. And that the world's other nuclear powers remind him of it at every opportunity.

Disagree. He will not use a nuke against a nuclear power. He probably won't use a nuke against a western power. That doesn't mean he wouldn't use a nuke against Ukraine, though.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukraine wants Ukraine. Ukraine had Ukraine. Russia invaded and occupied a piece of it.
Russia wants war because Ukraine still has most of Ukraine. Ukraine just wants Russians the hell out of THEIR country. The assholes came of their own volition, and need to go home before even Russians in Russia start dying. (Not that Russians ever cared much about Russians dying…)

Was there any reason why Russia invaded Ukraine? Countries do not go to war without reasons.
Wars bring deaths, no surprise. Countries stop wars if 1. Purpose fulfilled, 2. Costs too high, 3. Completing the purpose not possible.
Seems the purpose of both the parties is not fulfilled (Russia, NATO), so the war will continue - Ukraine is unimportant, a country which got caught between two stones of the grinding mill.

The 2014 annexation came soon after the discovery of considerable underground wealth. This is armed robbery. Now it's a matter of survival for Russia because a loss would show other provinces that success was possible.

 

[barbos]

Yikes, how self-deluded is this?!! Barbos accuses Nato of being imperialist, despite the fact that Nato has not taken a square inch of Russia!

Patently false. NATO took Ukraine which is Russia.

Patently false. Just because Russia owned it at one point doesn't make it part of Russia.

Ukraine is Russia.

 

[steve_bank]

The old historical solution to trouble at home is to start a war. A temporary boost in the economy and sirs patriotism.

Hitler militarized and built a war economy violating the treaty. The Allies fearing war did not oppose him until it was too late. Appeasement failed.

Trump seems to be slowly coming around to the fact Putin does not want peace.

During the early invasion Russia stole Ukrainian farming equip net and grain.

The war is about

Putin's personal glory and his image of Russian superpower to rival the US and ERurope.
Crimea was about securing a permanent naval vase.
Ukrainian resources, a major grin supplier.
Perceived economic threats,

Georgia was getting corruption under control, establishing rule of law, and drawing western investment. Intolerable to Putin.

Ukraine rejected Putin and the Russia Federation oting for economic ties with Europe. Intolerable to Putin.

 

[barbos]

Ukraine wants Ukraine. Ukraine had Ukraine. Russia invaded and occupied a piece of it.
Russia wants war because Ukraine still has most of Ukraine. Ukraine just wants Russians the hell out of THEIR country. The assholes came of their own volition, and need to go home before even Russians in Russia start dying. (Not that Russians ever cared much about Russians dying…)

Was there any reason why Russia invaded Ukraine? Countries do not go to war without reasons.
Wars bring deaths, no surprise. Countries stop wars if 1. Purpose fulfilled, 2. Costs too high, 3. Completing the purpose not possible.
Seems the purpose of both the parties is not fulfilled (Russia, NATO), so the war will continue - Ukraine is unimportant, a country which got caught between two stones of the grinding mill.

The 2014 annexation came soon after the discovery of considerable underground wealth. This is armed robbery. Now it's a matter of survival for Russia because a loss would show other provinces that success was possible.

Well, US certainly annexed Ukraine in 2014, I doubt it was related to having any underground wealth though. US wants Russian underground wealth.

 

[barbos]

Russia wants war or ‘war’ as a distraction fir how badly Putin is failing his country.

Plus they’d like a sea access….

Disagree. Russia wants all those minerals. They thought it would be easy.

You are remarkably deluded. First of all, Ukraine does not have much of anythyng, and most of that not much is in Russain controlled territory already.

And now Russia can't afford to lose because that would show their army to be a paper tiger and likely cause other provinces to rebel. Ukraine is Alderaan.

Nobody is going to rebel and Russia is not a paper tiger, you are (Afghanistan).
However, Putin personally can not leave Ukraine because it would be "What the fuck?"
We are winning and we are going to win.

 

[steve_bank]

I wider what Putin dreams about.

Is he haunted by the spirits of dead Russian soldiers?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I asked you to show evidence, not repeat bullshit.

I provided the evidence.
I provided evidence million times. NATO is forcing countries to attack Russia. Georgians said as much.
And it does not even matter. Ukrainians can all 100% vote to join NATO it would not matter a one bit.
NATO is an aggressive terrorist organization and Russia can not allow it to operate in Ukraine, period.
It's existential problem for Russia, and if murdering ukrainians is the solution to this problem so be it.

When has NATO ever taken territory anywhere? People who are scared of you have joined it for safety, that's all.

And you're "right" that Ukraine in NATO is an existential problem for Russia--because you made it so. You lose in Ukraine, other provinces will realize they can leave without being destroyed.

We have absolutely no reason to attack you. The Ukraine war has made that abundantly clear--you simply do not have the firepower to challenge us. So far you are pretty much at a standstill while facing a small fraction of our short range firepower.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

If barbos' posts are representative for the mainstream Russian viewpoint, then the hope for an eventually de-Putinized, peaceful, and democratic Russia feels completely in vain for the foreseeable future.

You do realize that you sound as if YOU started this war becasue you wanted to make Russia more democratic?
Is that the real reason?

Yes, Russia is not as democratic as I would like it to be. But I have a bridge to sell you if you think Europe/US are substantially better when it comes to democracy.

We certainly would like Russia to be democratic--democratic countries are far less likely to start stupid wars. But it's not a reason to start a war.

Getting left alone by the western powers is easy: don't export trouble.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And finally... the west side in the Ukraine conflict also makes up lies in order to justify our actions. Ukraine is a dysfunctional shit show of a nation dominated by gangsters and corrupt as hell. The leader of such a nation, Zelenskyy... obviously has a closet full of skelletons. But he's somehow always shown wearing a gloria.

I now have quite a lot of friends who have been in Ukraine as volonteers or soldiers. They all tell the same stories of absurd corruption and dysfunctionality on the Ukrainian side. We're also deluded about what kind of war this is. We've gilded the Ukrainian turd way more than what it deserves. Backing Ukraine is a huge gamble. There's no guarantee that a winning Zelenskyy won't turn Ukraine into a new Russia Putinstan.

I have heard multiple Ukrainian who said that Ukraine used to be a corrupt mess but they cleaned themselves up after the 2014 invasion.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Another comparison to Hitler.

In the news Russia is training school kids to operate military drones. Russia is running out of people and now it is kids.

Hitler had his Hitler Youth. In of his final final acts of desperation he put uniforms on kids, gave them a rifle, and sent them into combat.

The Nazis had a plan. Putin has an idea. Putin is Putin, not Hitler.

Hitler might have had a plan but it wasn't sensible.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The nuclear threat is Putin holding a gun to his own head.

Suppose Hitler had nukes available that fateful day, instead of just cyanide and a pistol.
How different might the modern world be?
Tom

Well, back in that day, it needed to be flown over to England and Russia and dropped on London and Moscow. And Germany would likely need to test it on the enemy on the first try as they couldn't test it in their backyard. And it isn't like they would be popping them out by the dozen. The US stopped at Nagasaki because we ran out.

Also, having broken Germany's code, it would have been possible that the allies would have known it was coming and would have put up a fierce fight to keep that plane from ever taking off.

I would think it would be hard to ensure destruction that way. Send everything against the raid when it's in the air.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

On a number of threads you try to make India relevant, I get that.

Fighting between Pakistan and India has no effect on the greater world.

A nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India would be quite a mess for the world even though it wouldn't be existential.

Putin's provocations by violating NATO airspace can lead to catastrophic consequences which will affect the world. War leading first to Russia using tactical nuclear weapons escalating to a nuclear war.

Exactly. Now we have two madmen controlling nuclear weapons.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Putin's provocations by violating NATO airspace can lead to catastrophic consequences

What violating? Please elaborate.
Cause according to international law it was not, certainly it was not enough to shoot it down.
That is even we assume that NATO liars did not lie.

International law is simple: if it's challenged and doesn't do as ordered it's free to be shot down. Care is expected to be taken with regard to malfunctions (your conduct with the Korean airliner was reprehensible.)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Who is terrorist and who is freedom fighter depends on which side you are on.

No. You can almost always tell them apart pretty easily if you want to. Just look at the targets. Freedom fighters hit government/military targets, terrorists hit civilian targets. Count what the person who decided where the weapon should go thought was at the point the weapon was being aimed at. Malfunctions are not terrorism. Mistaken identity is not terrorism.

Unfortunately, all too often these days the label "terrorist" is applied to forces using guerilla tactics. (Although, typically, such forces do engage in terrorism also.)

 

[barbos]

And finally... the west side in the Ukraine conflict also makes up lies in order to justify our actions. Ukraine is a dysfunctional shit show of a nation dominated by gangsters and corrupt as hell. The leader of such a nation, Zelenskyy... obviously has a closet full of skelletons. But he's somehow always shown wearing a gloria.

I now have quite a lot of friends who have been in Ukraine as volonteers or soldiers. They all tell the same stories of absurd corruption and dysfunctionality on the Ukrainian side. We're also deluded about what kind of war this is. We've gilded the Ukrainian turd way more than what it deserves. Backing Ukraine is a huge gamble. There's no guarantee that a winning Zelenskyy won't turn Ukraine into a new Russia Putinstan.

I have heard multiple Ukrainian who said that Ukraine used to be a corrupt mess but they cleaned themselves up after the 2014 invasion.

LOL, OK. if you say so.

 

[barbos]

Putin's provocations by violating NATO airspace can lead to catastrophic consequences

What violating? Please elaborate.
Cause according to international law it was not, certainly it was not enough to shoot it down.
That is even we assume that NATO liars did not lie.

International law is simple: if it's challenged and doesn't do as ordered it's free to be shot down.

it's a bit more complicated. First of all, there should be clear evidence of intent to invade the airspace.
In this particular case russian planes were flying parallel to the line, which was not even well defined.
Second of all, NATO did not challenged it well.

Care is expected to be taken with regard to malfunctions (your conduct with the Korean airliner was reprehensible.)

What you suggested above basically means that you would shoot that passenger plane.
And you should have been quiet after SR-71 flight through Russia. So don't play stupid games and you won't get stupid prizes.