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Yet another war, this time with Iran

 
 
 
crazyfingers said:
Regarding the girls school that the US blew up:

Hegseth gutted offices that would have probed Iran school strike​

The number of Pentagon employees who focus on mitigating civilian casualties has dropped from 200 people to less than 40.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has gutted the Pentagon oversight offices that would have investigated the recent strike on an Iranian girls’ school — a move that has degraded America’s ability to protect civilians amid its largest air campaign in decades.

The Pentagon chief last year slashed offices that didn’t contribute to his goal of “lethality,” including the group that assists in limiting risk to civilians, known as the Civilian Protection Center of Excellence. Around 200 employees who worked on the issue, including at that office, have been reduced by about 90 percent, according to two current and former officials and a person familiar with the effort. The team that handles civilian casualties at Central Command, which oversees the Middle East, has dropped from 10 to one.
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What a scumbag. It's not important to understand and minimize civilian deaths by the
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It is antithetical to the goal of “lethality”.
 
ideologyhunter said:
Gospel said:
He gives off the vibe of someone who skimmed The Art of War by Sun Tzu, picked up about ten quotes, and then decided the whole strategy was just to keep being themselves.

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Holy fuck -- that's not how a royal speaks. That's how deities speak. Again, thanks, Trump voters, and SCOTUS, and RNC. Your lack of character assessment skills has inflicted this ugly lout on the world.
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So he's going to commit genocide if the oil stops.
 
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Three ships attacked in the Strait. Ships full of oil aren't going to want a fire starting on their boats. Oil prices aren't skipping up quickly yet, but if boats continue to not go through the Strait, the US is going to need to figure out how to manage this. It isn't like the Strait is 100 meters long. You need just one lost boat to stop traffic.
 
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Jimmy Higgins said:
Three ships attacked in the Strait. Ships full of oil aren't going to want a fire starting on their boats. Oil prices aren't skipping up quickly yet, but if boats continue to not go through the Strait, the US is going to need to figure out how to manage this. It isn't like the Strait is 100 meters long. You need just one lost boat to stop traffic.
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Boy oh boy. Ain't that a kick in the deductible?
A lot of nations are very dependent upon oil coming through that bottleneck. I know one thing, next time I travel, I'm leaving the "Kiss Me I'm An American" t-shirt at home.
 
oilprice.com

Three Physical Constraints That Will Govern The Price of Oil | OilPrice.com

Following conflict in the Middle East and a functional shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has soared past $110 per barrel, defying prior forecasts of a 2026 supply surplus.
oilprice.com oilprice.com

A good analysis of the future of oil prices and the present constraints. Bottom line is that the war has to end soon or you can expect prices back up to $120 - 130 range. Given Iran's latest attacks on ships transiting the straits, I don't see that happening. Prices could go even higher if Iran successfully attacks Saudi or UAE production facilities.

Yesterday's report that the Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the straits turned out to be false. I mean, whodathunk that the administration would lie about something? So insurers are going to kiss that option good bye real quick.

Prices right now seem to be holding steady, but did rise today. WTI in the high 80's and Brent in the mid 90's.
 
Trump just spews garbage.

In the CNN feed, a short story where Rump says that ships should use the Strait.

Trump also encouraged oil tankers to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, insisting it’s safe despite attacks on three vessels in the waterway earlier in the day. Iran claimed responsibility for attacking at least two of those ships.

“I think they should use the strait,” Trump said.
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3 minutes before' another short news piece where:

US Central Command (CENTCOM) issued a new warning advising civilians to stay away from ports near the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and Oman.
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www.nytimes.com

Unlike Past U.S. Conflicts, Iran Attack Is Opposed by Most Americans

While the public has historically backed military intervention initially in international conflicts, deep polarization has left the latest strikes against Iran with record-low support.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

In the days after President Trump launched U.S. forces in an attack against Iran, support for the strikes is far lower than what it has been at the beginnings of previous foreign conflicts.
 
Politesse said:
Trump said yesterday that oil tanker crews should "show some guts" and sail across the Strait anyway. I think he should lead by example and plant himself on the bow of one of these ships he's accusing of cowardice.
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Priceless. He's so used to having dopes listen to him and accept what he says without questioning that he can't figure out why some people don't.
So far -- and I've probably missed some of his statements -- this is the counsel he's offered the Iranian people:
> (first day of "excursion") - People of Iran, now is the moment to take over your government.
> (still first day) - Soldiers of Iran, lay down your arms and surrender1. You will have complete immunity 2.
> (later in "excursion") - I must have your unconditional surrender.
> I must be personally involved in picking your new leader 3.
Footnotes
1- To somebody.
2- From somebody, for something.
3- All statements copyright Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG.) TMTG is not responsible for property damage or personal damage to users, i.e., beheading.

I know Trump is not a reader of history or any other printed matter, but someone should tell him about Afghanistan, how it took us 20 years, over 2 trillion dollars, and plenty of boots on the ground, to replace the Taliban with the Taliban.
 
Why Gulf fury is aimed at Tehran, not Washington
Public fury at Washington is notably scarce across the Gulf states, even as they absorb some of the heaviest shocks of a regional war they had urged the United States to avoid.
With few exceptions, senior Gulf figures have steered clear of publicly blaming Washington for its decision to confront Iran. Gulf capitals are reserving the language of betrayal for Tehran, not for the United States, even as American actions helped set the conflict in motion.
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Iran’s behaviour has made this restraint easier to maintain. After years of slow rapprochement – and assurances from Gulf Arab states that their territory would not be used to launch attacks on Iran – many expected Tehran to acknowledge those efforts. Gulf officials had even mounted an intense round of diplomacy in January, warning Washington and Tehran alike that a U.S. strike on Iran would trigger exactly the kind of regional blowback now ⁠unfolding.
Instead, Iran struck Gulf Arab territory on day one and has rattled Gulf capitals ever since.
Qatar’s Prime Minister called Iran’s moves a “betrayal,” saying they were preplanned and unleashed despite Gulf guarantees of neutrality. Doha had worked to preserve “a peaceful neighbourhood” and facilitate U.S.–Iran diplomacy, he said, but Iran’s miscalculation “destroyed everything.”
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Oil markets aside, these Gulf nations have taken a hit to the nice place to visit reputation they've been building. Trump pulled the trigger but I bet Trump's ego notwithstanding, he'll have the anger of these nations to consider should he try some "mission accomplished" bullshit. My point? Half measures seem even less likely than I had anticipated. These Gulf nations are expecting Trump to settle Iran's hash or what was it all for?
What now, Donald?
 
Recommended listen on YouTube: 'Most people have no idea what's about to happen after a week of Hormuz being closed/Bill Clinton'
Find the complete 24 minute recording (it's essentially a speech, but it must have been recorded and issued like a podcast rather than given before an audience.) Clinton lays out the lack of planning and the glaring Constitutional issues. In the last few minutes of the talk, he gives three possible scenarios for how this war plays out.
His analysis is sound, sobering, and at least slightly hopeful, but he stresses how we are heading into ever more turbulent times with almost no allies.
 
The Trump administration is fucking stupid!

American minesweeping capabilities in the Persian Gulf are not as strong as they once were. The US Navy decommissioned the last of its four dedicated minesweepers in the region last September, leaving it dependent on less specialized ships.

At the time, US Naval Forces Central Command said four littoral combat ships (LCS) would assume responsibility for minesweeping. These vessels have a history of problems, however, leading their critics to dub them “Little Crappy Ships.”
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Ya. These LCS don,t go. Trump administration has the foresight of the back window of a caboose.

 
ideologyhunter said:
Recommended listen on YouTube: 'Most people have no idea what's about to happen after a week of Hormuz being closed/Bill Clinton'
Find the complete 24 minute recording (it's essentially a speech, but it must have been recorded and issued like a podcast rather than given before an audience.) Clinton lays out the lack of planning and the glaring Constitutional issues. In the last few minutes of the talk, he gives three possible scenarios for how this war plays out.
His analysis is sound, sobering, and at least slightly hopeful, but he stresses how we are heading into ever more turbulent times with almost no allies.
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I'm conflicted.
YouTube states this is "altered or synthetic content". No doubt. I can tell by the repetitiveness of Bill Clinton's comments. It reads like a Google answer. Not like Clinton is some old guy repeating himself but how the different points he raises have a repetitiveness in their introduction.

But at the same time, I do not disagree with what Clinton (if that's really you) is saying. I would need to have a deeper understanding of commercial shipping, its insurance industry, and this Development Finance Corporation Clinton speaks of. Apparently it is a ¿quasi? federal agency. And with that in mind, here's a kid size explanation of the DFC: What to know about the agency Trump says will insure ships in the Persian Gulf. I do not think the shipping industry finds DFC coverage satisfying. I guess the proof is in the pudding and so far we have Trump committing the US Navy as a supplemental policy. This supplemental would indicate it does not satisfy. Beyond that, lets hold our collective breath and see if the the ships begin the transit. I wouldn't bet on it.
As far as Clinton's isolationist, lessons from past presidents, unity of decision making comments go; who can argue? But I didn't need aiBill to tell me that. That truth is bedrock.

You know, the irony is Ukraine showed Shit for Brains and his cadre of departmental imbeciles one does not need a navy to destroy lumbering ships in open waters. These things do 20 knots on a good day.

Now we sit and watch Iran target practice all things energy in and around the Persian Gulf. Just like so many presidents before Trump knew they could. And Trump alone fucked it all up.

So France is coming to help. Trump said no to Britain but yes to France? How many hours did it take for that turnaround? A betting man would say Macron, in a private phone conversation didn't so much ask as he did tell Trump. That's my sense of the Trump/Macron relationship. I guess we didn't "already won". My guess is this is where the Cadre of Departmental Imbeciles' plans for what happens after ends.
Dollars to doughnuts, a warship or a school in the US takes a serious hit. God help us all if we see a successful school for school retaliation. Nothing will SAVE the Republican Party then.
 
OMG! This guy thinks he's Clint Eastwood or something.



Wutta joke...
 
ZiprHead said:
OMG! This guy thinks he's Clint Eastwood or something.



Wutta joke...
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Hegseth makes me think of the 80s Business Guy from Futurama.

How in the heck did a Fox News personality get to be Sec of Defense? It'd be like allowing hyperbole to write the dictionary!
 
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