Yet another war, this time with Iran

[Politesse]

It's been going around. I saw a similar story on MSN news earlier, and the governor commented to the press about it later in the afternoon. But attribution seems awfully thin. I'm sure Iran would LOVE to bomb our coasts if that were an option, but that does not add up to a credible and immediate threat, of itself.

 

[pood]

I grew up in upstate NY, and most of my extended family lived and still lives in NYC and Long Island. You New Yorkers sure love the hicks and hillbillies slurs. Anyone north of White Plains is a hick and a hillbilly. Give it a fuckin' rest.

Nah.

I calls ‘em as I sees ‘em.

If you are a racist, a homophobe, a transphobe, and a misogynist, if you are a Trump backer, then you are a hick and a hillbilly, regardless of where you come from. I am not going to show tolerance for people who have no tolerance for anyone else except for hicks and hillbillies like themselves.

 

[Derec]

It isn't like liberals support the Iranian regime.

But a lot of socialists and other far leftists do.

We just recognize that regime change in Iran would have been a lot easier in an organic plan that helped push the nation towards democracy.

We saw IRGC brutally put down recent protests, killing thousands - and perhaps as many as tens of thousands.

But Trump left the agreement and America had its head up its ass so far, they thought electing the idiot again would be great for the economy.

The 2015 agreement was a poor one. It gave Iran sanctions relief and the World got very little in return. A temporary pause on nuclear weapons development, but no concessions on missiles or the theocracy's support for international terrorism or its proxies meddling in other countries like Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Note that it was around this time that the Houthis took over Sana'a.

Man, if the oil supply does have a shortage, the GOP better try to stop the mid-terms, because otherwise, they are going to get the Brian Mulrooney treatment.

I do not think we will have real shortages, but prices will go up. But increasing prices are market signals, and will encourage both increase in production and reduction in demand. I can definitely see US (and Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria etc.) drilling more are people drive less.

But even an increase in gas prices will be very unpopular at the ballot box. What are the chances the war is still going by the Fall?

 

[Derec]

Why Gulf fury is aimed at Tehran, not Washington

Well, they are being attacked by the Tehran Regime, not the US.
So why shouldn't the fury be aimed at Tehran?

 

[Politesse]

But a lot of socialists and other far leftists do.

Such as who, exactly?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It isn't like liberals support the Iranian regime.

But a lot of socialists and other far leftists do.

Yes, because the US so saturated with these people. Do you look under your bed at night to make certain a socialist isn't under there?

We just recognize that regime change in Iran would have been a lot easier in an organic plan that helped push the nation towards democracy.

We saw IRGC brutally put down recent protests, killing thousands - and perhaps as many as tens of thousands.

No kidding... it takes time. South Korea wasn't always a Democracy. Heck, when the US defended it in the 50s it was very much not a democracy. But given time, it can occur and it occurring as the will of the people, instead the will of an idiot beyond compare in First World politics.

But Trump left the agreement and America had its head up its ass so far, they thought electing the idiot again would be great for the economy.

The 2015 agreement was a poor one.

No... it wasn't. It was legendary. Obama managed to get concessions from Iran in exchange for something that belonged to Iran in the first place and a little sanction relief. That is called epic negotiating. If you were expecting Iran to just give everything up in the first go around you lack any understanding of diplomacy to be useful in conversation about it.

Think about it, if the US doesn't leave the Iran agreement, does 10/7 even happen? It is possible enough to consider.

Man, if the oil supply does have a shortage, the GOP better try to stop the mid-terms, because otherwise, they are going to get the Brian Mulrooney treatment.

I do not think we will have real shortages, but prices will go up.

The remaining 80% of the world's oil supply almost assuredly doesn't have the capacity to become 100% of the globes oil supply in the time necessary to do so.

But increasing prices are market signals, and will encourage both increase in production and reduction in demand. I can definitely see US (and Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria etc.) drilling more are people drive less.

You do realize it would take years to "drill more"? We need that extra supply in two to three months. Quicker for Asia.

But even an increase in gas prices will be very unpopular at the ballot box. What are the chances the war is still going by the Fall?

It shouldn't be still going on now. It could end tomorrow, it could be going on in the fall. What matters in the Strait of Hormuz. Everything Trump touches turns to shit, and that Strait might be next, regardless if we are still firing rockets and dropping bombs in Iran.

 

[crazyfingers]

Trump fucked up big time. He did not consider or vastly underestimated Iran's willingness to block the Strait and piss of every single Gulf state and the rest the world.

I wonder how much the world will blame Iran or Trump for this. About 50/50?

And of course there is Israel. Does Israel care that the strait is blocked? How much will the world blame Israel too?

 

[steve_bank]

Trump threatened to attack Panama and take back the canal.

Trump threatened to take Greenland by force.

He threatened Venezuela abd followed through. We are now in Ecuador.

He neatened Iran and followed through.

He has an obsession with being seen as a great historical leader. He brags about death and destruction.

This kind of militray adventurism is why the Constitution gives the power to use military force. High school civics.

From reporting we are fucked. No doubt about it. The Arab oil satates feel betrayed. jhey t5hought they were exchanging investment in USA for security and prevention of a war like this.

The global economy could crash.

Europe is quite explicit about never being able to trust the USA.

Republicans in Congress are not doing their duty.

Republicans in Congress from listening to them are as crazy an irrational as Trump. Lindsay Gr5am is right up there with Trump. the president has sole authority to use the militray.

Something had to be done about Iran, Trump was not the person to do it.

Israel has been bombing Gaza and Lebanon for years and it is not over.There is significant support for for the Iran regime.

What did Trump think was going to happen to oil supplies?

 

[blastula]

Yep

 

[Shadowy Man]

I actually feel safer knowing it was the FBI warning about strikes in California.

 

[crazyfingers]

Yep

Ya I read the whole story on CNN. Fucking incompitents.

 

[RVonse]

.

So, as the US continues to attack Iran, we need to ask a question... what the heck are we targeting at this point?!

At the moment, the Strait of Hormuz is being choked off by Iran in response to the current military attacks. Israel killed the former Supreme Leader. The US and Israel have flattened the Iranian military. What is left? Why are we spending several hundreds of millions to a billion a day to blow the targets that are left up?

The Iranians aren't going into the streets, they are currently being made aware by those in power that seeking out to the streets to protest the leadership will end in their deaths. The Kurds aren't coming. We are destabilizing the global economy for potentially no further gains. We don't need to continue attacking to slow down their nuclear program. That can be sporadic actions.

So further strikes aren't about being able to take over Iran or US security or Israel security. So what is the damn plan?!

Closing the Strait of Homuz hurts China oil worse than the US and Europe? That's all I got.

According to Ray Dalio this is pretty much the standard way every empire flounders during its crises turning. When all else fails our leaders always take the empire to war..... hopefully without the nukes this time.

Well oil from Iran to China hasn't slowed one bit.

Trump has offered to free Russian oil from sanctions on the condition that Putin direct the released oil flows to Europe away from Asia. This achieves two goals for Trump. It lessens or removes the pressure on oil price and inflation from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, thus negating an Iranian advantage in the conflict, and it prevents China from replacing Iranian oil lost to blockage of the Strait and curtailment of shipping insurance.

We still don't know what Putin will do though. We are about to find out just how tight the BRIC's allies are.

 

[laughing dog]

.

So, as the US continues to attack Iran, we need to ask a question... what the heck are we targeting at this point?!

At the moment, the Strait of Hormuz is being choked off by Iran in response to the current military attacks. Israel killed the former Supreme Leader. The US and Israel have flattened the Iranian military. What is left? Why are we spending several hundreds of millions to a billion a day to blow the targets that are left up?

The Iranians aren't going into the streets, they are currently being made aware by those in power that seeking out to the streets to protest the leadership will end in their deaths. The Kurds aren't coming. We are destabilizing the global economy for potentially no further gains. We don't need to continue attacking to slow down their nuclear program. That can be sporadic actions.

So further strikes aren't about being able to take over Iran or US security or Israel security. So what is the damn plan?!

Closing the Strait of Homuz hurts China oil worse than the US and Europe? That's all I got.

According to Ray Dalio this is pretty much the standard way every empire flounders during its crises turning. When all else fails our leaders always take the empire to war..... hopefully without the nukes this time.

Well oil from Iran to China hasn't slowed one bit.

Trump has offered to free Russian oil from sanctions on the condition that Putin direct the released oil flows to Europe away from Asia. This achieves two goals for Trump. It lessens or removes the pressure on oil price and inflation from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, thus negating an Iranian advantage in the conflict, and it prevents China from replacing Iranian oil lost to blockage of the Strait and curtailment of shipping insurance.

We still don't know what Putin will do though. We are about to find out just how tight the BRIC's allies are.

It also allows Putin to finance his attack on Ukraine. So Ukrainian blood is spilt to help Trump's poor planning.

Everyday, I become more ashamed for our country.

 

[barbos]

 

[Patooka]

.

So, as the US continues to attack Iran, we need to ask a question... what the heck are we targeting at this point?!

At the moment, the Strait of Hormuz is being choked off by Iran in response to the current military attacks. Israel killed the former Supreme Leader. The US and Israel have flattened the Iranian military. What is left? Why are we spending several hundreds of millions to a billion a day to blow the targets that are left up?

The Iranians aren't going into the streets, they are currently being made aware by those in power that seeking out to the streets to protest the leadership will end in their deaths. The Kurds aren't coming. We are destabilizing the global economy for potentially no further gains. We don't need to continue attacking to slow down their nuclear program. That can be sporadic actions.

So further strikes aren't about being able to take over Iran or US security or Israel security. So what is the damn plan?!

Closing the Strait of Homuz hurts China oil worse than the US and Europe? That's all I got.

According to Ray Dalio this is pretty much the standard way every empire flounders during its crises turning. When all else fails our leaders always take the empire to war..... hopefully without the nukes this time.

Well oil from Iran to China hasn't slowed one bit.

Trump has offered to free Russian oil from sanctions on the condition that Putin direct the released oil flows to Europe away from Asia. This achieves two goals for Trump. It lessens or removes the pressure on oil price and inflation from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, thus negating an Iranian advantage in the conflict, and it prevents China from replacing Iranian oil lost to blockage of the Strait and curtailment of shipping insurance.

We still don't know what Putin will do though. We are about to find out just how tight the BRIC's allies are.

It also allows Putin to finance his attack on Ukraine. So Ukrainian blood is spilt to help Trump's poor planning.

Everyday, I become more ashamed for our country.

Unfortunately, RVonse is fine with that. Just another example of Trump fixing a problem that he fucking created by making everything else worse. I would point out Taiwan is probably fucked now as well thanks to this Administrations stupidity.

 

[SLD]

.

So, as the US continues to attack Iran, we need to ask a question... what the heck are we targeting at this point?!

At the moment, the Strait of Hormuz is being choked off by Iran in response to the current military attacks. Israel killed the former Supreme Leader. The US and Israel have flattened the Iranian military. What is left? Why are we spending several hundreds of millions to a billion a day to blow the targets that are left up?

The Iranians aren't going into the streets, they are currently being made aware by those in power that seeking out to the streets to protest the leadership will end in their deaths. The Kurds aren't coming. We are destabilizing the global economy for potentially no further gains. We don't need to continue attacking to slow down their nuclear program. That can be sporadic actions.

So further strikes aren't about being able to take over Iran or US security or Israel security. So what is the damn plan?!

Closing the Strait of Homuz hurts China oil worse than the US and Europe? That's all I got.

According to Ray Dalio this is pretty much the standard way every empire flounders during its crises turning. When all else fails our leaders always take the empire to war..... hopefully without the nukes this time.

Well oil from Iran to China hasn't slowed one bit.

Trump has offered to free Russian oil from sanctions on the condition that Putin direct the released oil flows to Europe away from Asia. This achieves two goals for Trump. It lessens or removes the pressure on oil price and inflation from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, thus negating an Iranian advantage in the conflict, and it prevents China from replacing Iranian oil lost to blockage of the Strait and curtailment of shipping insurance.

We still don't know what Putin will do though. We are about to find out just how tight the BRIC's allies are.

It also allows Putin to finance his attack on Ukraine. So Ukrainian blood is spilt to help Trump's poor planning.

Everyday, I become more ashamed for our country.

Unfortunately, RVonse is fine with that. Just another example of Trump fixing a problem that he fucking created by making everything else worse. I would point out Taiwan is probably fucked now as well thanks to this Administrations stupidity.

The China question is a huge factor that no one considered and few are talking about. A recent article in Foreign Affairs noted that they are not likely to get involved in helping Tehran aside from some nice words and maybe missile technology. What they care about is oil. And they get a lot through the straits. They get about 13% from Iran. That’s still happening; the US hasn’t attacked those facilities or ships. But trump is threatening to seize Iranian oil. And the Chinese are still having to deal with the huge increase in prices.

They will not sit idly by and watch their oil sources dry up. They may intervene far more if they feel they are threatened by more than a small disruption.

The next problem is Taiwan. The US recently shifted THAAD systems from South Korea to the Mideast. Taiwan doesn’t have THAAD but it wants them. They won’t be getting them anytime soon, even if the threat multiplies. But the US is leaving an opening to attack Taiwan by allowing NK to initiate an attack on South Korea and thus multiply the threats the US faces. Spread us too thin, and then hit Taiwan.

I think the real issue though is how well it goes. China was probably deterred from attacking Taiwan because of Putin’s failures and the resistance and determination put up by the Ukrainians. Xi can’t afford a quagmire. If the US gets bogged down in Iran, it may actually discourage him from attacking. However, we’ve done one decapitation strike and if we do another and the regime collapses, they may take it as a sign that they can do it too.

I think they’d be wrong though. But they may try it.

I hope I’m wrong.

These stupid wars that Trump has gotten us into are seriously eroding our power. We are simply vomiting money into the chasm of war with no thought to the ultimate consequences. Our status as a world power does not stem simply from having a competent and strong military. We need to leverage alliances, bide our resources and develop our economic potential. This means significantly reducing our national debt at least as a percentage of GDP. Trump and Hegseth have no strategic sense whatsoever. Hegseth’s military experience was limited to the company,, I.e. tactical level. He never attended a war college or has any advanced studies of national security. They’ve either silenced or blocked anyone with half a brain in the Pentagon.

But apparently Kamala Harris would have been worse.

 

[Tigers!]

.

So, as the US continues to attack Iran, we need to ask a question... what the heck are we targeting at this point?!

At the moment, the Strait of Hormuz is being choked off by Iran in response to the current military attacks. Israel killed the former Supreme Leader. The US and Israel have flattened the Iranian military. What is left? Why are we spending several hundreds of millions to a billion a day to blow the targets that are left up?

The Iranians aren't going into the streets, they are currently being made aware by those in power that seeking out to the streets to protest the leadership will end in their deaths. The Kurds aren't coming. We are destabilizing the global economy for potentially no further gains. We don't need to continue attacking to slow down their nuclear program. That can be sporadic actions.

So further strikes aren't about being able to take over Iran or US security or Israel security. So what is the damn plan?!

Closing the Strait of Homuz hurts China oil worse than the US and Europe? That's all I got.

According to Ray Dalio this is pretty much the standard way every empire flounders during its crises turning. When all else fails our leaders always take the empire to war..... hopefully without the nukes this time.

Well oil from Iran to China hasn't slowed one bit.

Trump has offered to free Russian oil from sanctions on the condition that Putin direct the released oil flows to Europe away from Asia. This achieves two goals for Trump. It lessens or removes the pressure on oil price and inflation from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, thus negating an Iranian advantage in the conflict, and it prevents China from replacing Iranian oil lost to blockage of the Strait and curtailment of shipping insurance.

We still don't know what Putin will do though. We are about to find out just how tight the BRIC's allies are.

It also allows Putin to finance his attack on Ukraine. So Ukrainian blood is spilt to help Trump's poor planning.

Everyday, I become more ashamed for our country.

Unfortunately, RVonse is fine with that. Just another example of Trump fixing a problem that he fucking created by making everything else worse. I would point out Taiwan is probably fucked now as well thanks to this Administrations stupidity.

The China question is a huge factor that no one considered and few are talking about. A recent article in Foreign Affairs noted that they are not likely to get involved in helping Tehran aside from some nice words and maybe missile technology. What they care about is oil. And they get a lot through the straits. They get about 13% from Iran. That’s still happening; the US hasn’t attacked those facilities or ships. But trump is threatening to seize Iranian oil. And the Chinese are still having to deal with the huge increase in prices.

They will not sit idly by and watch their oil sources dry up. They may intervene far more if they feel they are threatened by more than a small disruption.

The next problem is Taiwan. The US recently shifted THAAD systems from South Korea to the Mideast. Taiwan doesn’t have THAAD but it wants them. They won’t be getting them anytime soon, even if the threat multiplies. But the US is leaving an opening to attack Taiwan by allowing NK to initiate an attack on South Korea and thus multiply the threats the US faces. Spread us too thin, and then hit Taiwan.

I think the real issue though is how well it goes. China was probably deterred from attacking Taiwan because of Putin’s failures and the resistance and determination put up by the Ukrainians. Xi can’t afford a quagmire. If the US gets bogged down in Iran, it may actually discourage him from attacking. However, we’ve done one decapitation strike and if we do another and the regime collapses, they may take it as a sign that they can do it too.

I think they’d be wrong though. But they may try it.

I hope I’m wrong.

These stupid wars that Trump has gotten us into are seriously eroding our power. We are simply vomiting money into the chasm of war with no thought to the ultimate consequences. Our status as a world power does not stem simply from having a competent and strong military. We need to leverage alliances, bide our resources and develop our economic potential. This means significantly reducing our national debt at least as a percentage of GDP. Trump and Hegseth have no strategic sense whatsoever. Hegseth’s military experience was limited to the company,, I.e. tactical level. He never attended a war college or has any advanced studies of national security. They’ve either silenced or blocked anyone with half a brain in the Pentagon.

But apparently Kamala Harris would have been worse.

I hope you are wrong too.

 

[ZiprHead]

They are preparing 5,000 troops for invasion. Yet no promise of no troops on the ground.

 

[aupmanyav]

Modi is cool about it. He bought 1.5 million barrels per day from Russia this month (50% up), and got Iran to allow two Indian ships to pass Hormuz.

 

[Patooka]

Modi is cool about it. He bought 1.5 million barrels per day from Russia this month (50% up), and got Iran to allow two Indian ships to pass Hormuz.

Dictators gotta stick together.