Democratic Primary Schedule

[Derec]

In 2024, Joe Biden dethroned Iowa and New Hampshire and elevated South Carolina as the state to go first as part of his corrupt bargain with Jim Clyburn.

But now Dems are in a discussion as to which state should go first.

South Carolina and Nevada Fight to Kick Off Democrats’ 2028 Presidential Calendar

I think SC was a horrible choice for first state. The demographics of its primary electorate is very unbalanced compared to the demographics of the nationwide general election electorate. It is bigger than Iowa and much bigger than New Hampshire, which makes the retail politics that the erstwhile first states are known for more difficult.

While Nevada is not a bad choice per se, I think Dems should revert to the previous schedule and undo Biden era favoritism toward SC. IA and NH are small and have a long tradition of retail politics. And while they are whiter than the national average, their Democratic primary electorate is certainly closer to the nationwide general election electorate that the very skewed South Carolina. Both of those things matter. I do not think that somebody like Bill Clinton, i.e. a relatively unknown governor of a small southern state, would have been the nominee without that calender. Neither would Obama. Without him showing that he could do great among the mostly white electorate in those states, he would not have been seen as a credible alternative to Hillary.

 

[Derec]

No interest in the DNC primary schedule? I think that's unfortunate, as the calendar will help some candidates and hurt others.

In their infinitesimal wisdom, DNC chose to keep SC first.
Dems pick South Carolina to lead 2028 primary calendar
Bad move. And "Corrupt Bargain" Clyburn is front and center yet again.

 

[Tigers!]

Perhaps you have all reached election speculation overload?

 

[Politesse]

I think SC was a horrible choice for first state. The demographics of its primary electorate is very unbalanced compared to the demographics of the nationwide general election electorate.

For non-Americans who may have missed Derec's connotation here, he is as usual talking about race.

 

[Politesse]

Personally, I've never thought that the extended "primary season" was a beneficial practice at all. It leads to weirdly targeted campaigning and lazy voting. I'll vote for who I think ought to be president, thank you very much, not whoever "won big in the early states".

 

[bilby]

Primary elections are antidemocratic. Of course, there's a lot of antidemocratic shit in US presidential elections, like the electoral college system; But primaries are distinctly counterproductive if the objective is to have the president who appeals the most to the citizens.

They are great as a way to ensure that the final candidates are as unappealing as possible.

 

[pood]

No interest in the DNC primary schedule? I think that's unfortunate, as the calendar will help some candidates and hurt others.

In their infinitesimal wisdom, DNC chose to keep SC first.
Dems pick South Carolina to lead 2028 primary calendar
Bad move. And "Corrupt Bargain" Clyburn is front and center yet again.

Too many black people in SC for you, Derec?

Hey, at least there aren’t many Muslims!

 

[Tigers!]

Why does it matter which state goes first?
Why do other states care about how state X voted?
Is there some benefit, financial or otherwise, to be gained? Apart from being able to say "We got here first".

Every time these inane primaries are needed jut put 52 slips of paper, each bearing the name of a state, into a bag and then take one out. That state can go first.
Surely you yanks could manage that without accusations of bias, or irregularities, or skin colour or phases of the moon being thrown up?

 

[Patooka]

Why does it matter which state goes first?

Because the Primaries go on for 6 months (March through to September). And much like in Australia when people prefer to vote for party than for whoever represents their electorate (and I reckon that's at least 80% of Australians), Americans are also not immune to simply vote for who is "winning" the court of public opinion. With regards to the primary, a lot can happen in 6 months politically. Here are two hypotheticals:

Republican - After a lifetime of junk food and amphetamines, Trump finally has the decency to, shall we say, remove himself from the Whitehouse in August. The remaining candidates now face a dilemma of either continuing the philosophy of MAGA under the leadership of Vance or distancing away from it.

Democrat - In August, Pro Publica releases an expose on Democrat incumbents who are bought and paid for by AIPAC to the extent on how counter intuitive their voting records have been versus their platform. Voters are then going to wonder if they want their representative to be subservient to a foreign power over their own interests.

As Bilby pointed out, it's a very undemocratic process. Personally, I think all primaries should be done late September/ early October. If nothing else, it reduces the constant election fatigue that everyone agrees occurs.