Polling numbers are looking way too good at the moment. NH and IA are showing numbers for the Democrat at well below 50, so whether in the lead or not, the poll isn't useful.
Texas and Alaska and Maine are steals. Talarico, Pelota, Jackson are showing consistent small leads to draws and floating between 45 and 49. This is notably better than NH and IA, but far, very far from being able to be considered in the lead. Especially in Maine where Collins has more political lives than a cat.
Georgia is also critical (well, actually all of them are). Ossoff is showing the power of incumbancy. Many polls at 50% or higher. He appears to be winning there. North Carolina appears to show Gov. Cooper running away with it, polling well over 50% and with a solid lead. This is a gain.
Minnesota shows the Democrat with consistent leads, but well under 50. I can't see a universe where the Senate seat is won in Texas, but lost in Minnesota.
Ohio is hard to tell. Husted was winning, but now a Fox News has Brown at 53%. The drop coincides with Iran. Ohio has become kind of red recently.
Michigan polling is showing El Sayad may not have been a great choice. Be odd the GOP holds Michigan, but loses Texas. Again, this is about choosing the right candidates for the right areas.
270toWin puts the Senate at 47-47, of which I agree, though with Minnesota and New Hampshire polling could go 45-47 Republican lead. Democrats must with 4 of the remaining 6 or 6 of the remaining 8 to take the Senate. It was always going to be a tough slog.
Iowa, Maine, and Texas should be the toughest. Alaska should also be tough, Sullivan won in 2020 by a large margin in a general election Trump lost. Pelota is the best candidate possible for the Dems though. These four states should be locks. But the GOP are struggling because while the economy hasn't gone in the dumps, inflation has stuck around (because of Trump's policies), gasoline is expensive (Trump's Iran affair), electric rates are rising quickly and the general public dislike of data centers (no, not entirely the GOP's fault, but neither were the price of eggs Biden's fault), weak ass job growth, and a slow economy (that likely would be better if Trump had done nothing at all). There are too many easy cliches for the Democrats to target in ads. Trump can say he threw out billions of immigrants, but that isn't going to help win over people that aren't happy with prices not dropping (no prices were never dropping, but when you run on you are going to drop prices... voters hold you to it... generally).
I would put the Democrat chances at taking the Senate at X - Y. Yeah... I'm not putting numbers to it. I have decided I have no 'finger on the pulse' of the American voter. The Democrats could win back the Senate because America is angry at the GOP for things not getting better. The Democrats could gain seats but not take back the Senate because not enough Americans were angry or because the Republicans could gain seats in New Hampshire and/or Georgia. And with the messing around of mail-in ballots, who knows what that might result in.
But AIPAC!!!
Politicians should be required to wear sponsor labels while at work in DC.