Trump might realize this and he could effectively surrender to Iran. Agree to whatever they want. But that won’t work. They’re likely hell bent on revenge and refuse to negotiate until there’s a change in the administration.
I doubt the Iranian government care much about the administration. From Tehran, America looks like America, and Trump looks like every other US President - a liar who will side with Israel and bomb Iran on a whim, and who will be replaced in a few years by someone who will happily ignore any and all international agreements made by their predecessors.
As such, it matters not one whit what America agrees to - all agreements with America are strictly short-term anyway.
Iran has no reason to reopen the strait without imposing heavy tolls on all shipping. The Trump-Netanyahu attempt to decapitate the Islamic Revolution on Feb 28th was an insane gamble, and its failure has broken the region irreparably. There is no way back, not for the current US administration, nor for any foreseeable future administration.
Negotiations require at least a minimum level of trust that the other party will abide by the outcome of those negotiations. Tehran has every reason to withhold that trust, and it will require decades of careful and consistent diplomacy to even get to that minimum level.
The USA is incapable of such long-term consistency while it remains conceivable that the Republican party might be put in a position to determine foreign policy; And it is hard to envisage how such an eventuality could become inconceivable - perhaps the rise of a new party to replace the GOP in the two party system would do it, but then again, perhaps not.
You broke it; You bought it. The final price is hard to calculate, but it won't be cheap, and might even be the end of almost a century of US hegemony.
When global power goes away, it usually takes the former hegemon many decades to realise that they're no longer in charge. The British Empire was mortally wounded by the Great War, but it took three decades, and another World War, before they stopped thinking they were still running the world.
The US hegemony may well not survive the destruction rained upon their global reputation by Trump; China seems best placed to step in and fill the void, if they are smart enough not to fuck it up by being too hasty. As long as they leave Taiwan alone until the US is no longer capable of even attempting to project military power across the Pacific - and China is adept at playing a very long game - nothing will stop them.
