If America decides to end it's military presence throughout the world?

[Will Wiley]

It seems inevitable that this will happen IMHO.
But what would be the result if the USA withdrew it's military presence from other parts of the globe? What would be likely to happen?

 

[Angry Floof]

Why do you think it's inevitable?

 

[Will Wiley]

Why do you think it's inevitable?

It happens to all empires, would be one answer that is true, but I'm interested in what might happen if it were to happen in the next 5 years or so (which may not occur)

 

[Angry Floof]

Why do you think it's inevitable?

It happens to all empires, would be one answer that is true, but I'm interested in what might happen if it were to happen in the next 5 years or so (which may not occur)

Gotcha. I don't actually have a response for you. Just curious as to why you thought inevitable.

 

[dystopian]

Within 5 years?

The United States ceases to be relevant in 10 years.

Why? Because it'd be violating dozens of international treaties and obligations with such a move; the US would piss off just about every ally it has in the world; and most of those allies are already pissed off over lots of things (like economic warfare and espionage performed against them). And without all its international deployments and military interests, the US military will be forced to dramatically shrink. Nobody could afford to maintain 12 carrier groups and everything else the US military has, when they just stay at home, even the most hawkish politicians would find themselves forced to sign off on massive reductions of the US military (which causes all sorts of economic woes for a country centered around the military-industrial complex to the extent the US is). So at that point, its military is more in line with that of other powers and everyone is mad at it; it has squandered all political influence it once had.

Best case scenario: the US becomes just a regular developed country, albeit one with very few friends and far less influence/power.
Intermediate scenario: the US becomes a global pariah, and might even be the the recipient of punitive sanctions for its broken promises.
Worst case scenario: No longer able to secure its interests the dollar ceases to be the world reserve currency, the US finds itself facing sanctions, and the US goes bankrupt because it can no longer borrow like it used to. Goodbye cruel world.

A long term phased withdrawal, done in a way that doesn't piss off allies and breaks agreements, would be less dangerous for the US; although in the best case scenario it would still become far less relevant over time than it is today.

But this is of course, a completely nonsensical scenario to begin with. There is no way that the US would do something like this within 5 years unless something happened stateside that's so catastrophic that they could from one day to the next not even pay soldier's wages anymore; and if that's the case, then you have bigger problems to worry about than the hypothetical results of a military withdrawal.

 

[Will Wiley]

It happens to all empires, would be one answer that is true, but I'm interested in what might happen if it were to happen in the next 5 years or so (which may not occur)

Gotcha. I don't actually have a response for you. Just curious as to why you thought inevitable.

I do tend to think it may happen sooner but ...I think my predictive powers aren't that great, and things often have a way of going on for longer that my mind imagines they might
I'm just not sure what the world would look like if it did happen

 

[bilby]

Within 5 years?

The United States ceases to be relevant in 10 years.

Why? Because it'd be violating dozens of international treaties and obligations with such a move; the US would piss off just about every ally it has in the world; and most of those allies are already pissed off over lots of things (like economic warfare and espionage performed against them). And without all its international deployments and military interests, the US military will be forced to dramatically shrink. Nobody could afford to maintain 12 carrier groups and everything else the US military has, when they just stay at home, even the most hawkish politicians would find themselves forced to sign off on massive reductions of the US military (which causes all sorts of economic woes for a country centered around the military-industrial complex to the extent the US is). So at that point, its military is more in line with that of other powers and everyone is mad at it; it has squandered all political influence it once had.

Best case scenario: the US becomes just a regular developed country, albeit one with very few friends and far less influence/power.
Intermediate scenario: the US becomes a global pariah, and might even be the the recipient of punitive sanctions for its broken promises.
Worst case scenario: No longer able to secure its interests the dollar ceases to be the world reserve currency, the US finds itself facing sanctions, and the US goes bankrupt because it can no longer borrow like it used to. Goodbye cruel world.

A long term phased withdrawal, done in a way that doesn't piss off allies and breaks agreements, would be less dangerous for the US; although in the best case scenario it would still become far less relevant over time than it is today.

But this is of course, a completely nonsensical scenario to begin with. There is no way that the US would do something like this within 5 years unless something happened stateside that's so catastrophic that they could from one day to the next not even pay soldier's wages anymore; and if that's the case, then you have bigger problems to worry about than the hypothetical results of a military withdrawal.

I agree; the only way that this could happen in as little as five years would require a catastrophe so large that US overseas troop deployments would be a sideshow to the main event.

If the Yellowstone super volcano erupted, the US might need to bring her forces home; but the global effects would be so severe that the locations of US troops would be the least of the problems of the rest of the world.

 

[Will Wiley]

Best case scenario: the US becomes just a regular developed country, albeit one with very few friends and far less influence/power.

Why would it have few friends?

 

[bilby]

Best case scenario: the US becomes just a regular developed country, albeit one with very few friends and far less influence/power.

Why would it have few friends?

Countries don't have friends. They have interests.

 

[Will Wiley]

Within 5 years?

The United States ceases to be relevant in 10 years.

Why? Because it'd be violating dozens of international treaties and obligations with such a move; the US would piss off just about every ally it has in the world; and most of those allies are already pissed off over lots of things (like economic warfare and espionage performed against them). And without all its international deployments and military interests, the US military will be forced to dramatically shrink. Nobody could afford to maintain 12 carrier groups and everything else the US military has, when they just stay at home, even the most hawkish politicians would find themselves forced to sign off on massive reductions of the US military (which causes all sorts of economic woes for a country centered around the military-industrial complex to the extent the US is). So at that point, its military is more in line with that of other powers and everyone is mad at it; it has squandered all political influence it once had.

Best case scenario: the US becomes just a regular developed country, albeit one with very few friends and far less influence/power.
Intermediate scenario: the US becomes a global pariah, and might even be the the recipient of punitive sanctions for its broken promises.
Worst case scenario: No longer able to secure its interests the dollar ceases to be the world reserve currency, the US finds itself facing sanctions, and the US goes bankrupt because it can no longer borrow like it used to. Goodbye cruel world.

A long term phased withdrawal, done in a way that doesn't piss off allies and breaks agreements, would be less dangerous for the US; although in the best case scenario it would still become far less relevant over time than it is today.

But this is of course, a completely nonsensical scenario to begin with. There is no way that the US would do something like this within 5 years unless something happened stateside that's so catastrophic that they could from one day to the next not even pay soldier's wages anymore; and if that's the case, then you have bigger problems to worry about than the hypothetical results of a military withdrawal.

I agree; the only way that this could happen in as little as five years would require a catastrophe so large that US overseas troop deployments would be a sideshow to the main event.

.

Sure, but the future can be unpredictable, but, that said, what might the world look like if it did?

- - - Updated - - -

Why would it have few friends?

Countries don't have friends. They have interests.

Sure, but countries are made of people and relationships between peoples are more than just political connections and agreements

 

[dystopian]

Best case scenario: the US becomes just a regular developed country, albeit one with very few friends and far less influence/power.

Why would it have few friends?

Are you joking? I already explained this in the post. In order to fully withdraw its forces from around the globe in such a short timespan, the US would be breaking many of its treaty obligations; which would be enough to piss countries off by itself, but especially so given that the world is now less stable than it was just ten years ago and most of the traditional US allies are faced with nearby powers that are experiencing alarming upsurges in belligerent militarism.

Europe is already largely fed up with the US over many things; if the US withdrew its forces from around the world, there'd be very little reason for us to not start openly treating the US as a hostile power.

Japan is facing territorial disputes with China, and have spent decades banking on the US to protect them. They will be profoundly upset if the US just up and left. This response would be even more amplified for South Korea.

That leaves what, Australia & New Zealand? They're far enough away from any potential conflicts that they probably wouldn't be too bothered if the US did this. Then again, they also wouldn't have any particular incentive to be friendly towards an isolationist US either; they'd be better off cozying up to China or a resurgent EU that tries to fill the global police role gap.

Canada would probably find itself forced to not cut the US off like the rest of the world would; but their foreign politics seem more in line with Europe than the US so who can say.

 

[jonatha]

Are you joking? ...

a resurgent EU that tries to fill the global police role gap.

He may or may not have been joking but I'd say you certainly are....

 

[Valjean]

Why would it have few friends?

The US has been running roughshod over the rest of the world practically since its inception. The rest of the world is just too scared to speak up.

"Between 1945 and 2005 the United States has attempted to overthrow more than 50 foreign governments, and to crush more than 30 populist-nationalist movements struggling against intolerable regimes. In the process, the US has caused the end of life for several million people, and condemned many millions more to a life of agony and despair."
Rogue State. p. 1-2, William Blum.

Before '45, General Smedley Butler described his experience with empire in his famous War is a Racket: http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/warisaracket.html

 

[dystopian]

Are you joking? ...

a resurgent EU that tries to fill the global police role gap.

He may or may not have been joking but I'd say you certainly are....

Then you´re either ignorant of the resources and potential of the EU, or fooled by populist propaganda into thinking its on its last legs. The EU is the biggest economy in the world by a considerable margin, and with the US absent the EU is the only real viable global power. The EU´s military capabilities are far larger than anyone else, except the US, and not even the Chinese will be able to catch up for a long time to come. Keep in mind that there are only two powers in the world today able to exert military power globally and across the full spectrum of combat activities, the US and the EU. And while still quite fragmented (leading to a dillution of power), European countries are quietly beginning to integrate their forces in very far reaching ways. This process would certainly be accelerated should the US suddenly step back. Furthermore, despite the doom, gloom, and general uncertainty that various media outlets like to spread, the majority of Europeans do in fact support further EU integration, and it will most certainly overcome its current teething issues, which really aren´t as big a deal as people like to pretend they are (and besides, even if those teething issues turned out to be a bit harder to overcome, the US suddenly becoming isolationist would force EU countries into closer integration and push past those issues anyway).

The EU has everything in place to police the world through the projection of hard power. The reason it doesn´t, is because someone else is doing it for us.

 

[Elixir]

Seems to me that if we ended all of our foreign military presence, and allocated those costs to supporting the production of actual consumable/saleable goods, we could run roughshod over the world economy and accomplish more dominion than we'll ever get by spending all that money blowing stuff up.

 

[tupac chopra]

Why would it have few friends?

Are you joking? I already explained this in the post. In order to fully withdraw its forces from around the globe in such a short timespan, the US would be breaking many of its treaty obligations; which would be enough to piss countries off by itself, but especially so given that the world is now less stable than it was just ten years ago and most of the traditional US allies are faced with nearby powers that are experiencing alarming upsurges in belligerent militarism.

Europe is already largely fed up with the US over many things; if the US withdrew its forces from around the world, there'd be very little reason for us to not start openly treating the US as a hostile power.

Japan is facing territorial disputes with China, and have spent decades banking on the US to protect them. They will be profoundly upset if the US just up and left. This response would be even more amplified for South Korea.

That leaves what, Australia & New Zealand? They're far enough away from any potential conflicts that they probably wouldn't be too bothered if the US did this. Then again, they also wouldn't have any particular incentive to be friendly towards an isolationist US either; they'd be better off cozying up to China or a resurgent EU that tries to fill the global police role gap.

Canada would probably find itself forced to not cut the US off like the rest of the world would; but their foreign politics seem more in line with Europe than the US so who can say.

Sounds like you need some new friends. The ones you have are clearly very fickle.

 

[credoconsolans]

"Between 1945 and 2005 the United States has attempted to overthrow more than 50 foreign governments, and to crush more than 30 populist-nationalist movements struggling against intolerable regimes. In the process, the US has caused the end of life for several million people, and condemned many millions more to a life of agony and despair."
Rogue State. p. 1-2, William Blum.

Before '45, General Smedley Butler described his experience with empire in his famous War is a Racket: http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/warisaracket.html

Interesting. How do we measure up to other countries in these things? I'm sure we're neck and neck with places like the UK, China and North Korea and Russia.

Always reminds me of that exchange between Felix the CIA agent and James Bond in the movie Quantum of Solace:

James Bond: You know I was just wondering what South America would look like if nobody gave a damn about coke or communism. It always impressed me the way you boys would carve this place up.
Felix Leiter: I'll take that as a compliment coming from a Brit.

 

[skepticalbip]

I think there would be a lot of turmoil in East Asia. Kim Jung Un would likely make a move on the South without the threat of US retaliation. Taiwan, which has never been recognized by mainland China as being independent, would be in deep shit. Tensions between Japan and China would become pretty severe.

In Europe, there would be a hell of a lot of bars that would have to close for lack of business in Germany.

 

[credoconsolans]

I think there would be a lot of turmoil in East Asia. Kim Jung Un would likely make a move on the South without the threat of US retaliation. Taiwan, which has never been recognized by mainland China as being independent, would be in deep shit. Tensions between Japan and China would become pretty severe.

In Europe, there would be a hell of a lot of bars that would have to close for lack of business in Germany.

Lot of prostitutes and pimps out of business in Southeast Asia, Japan and Germany as well.

 

[Bacillus anthracis]

Lots of war. That's what would happen.

Europe would sit by as China destroyed Japan and helped North Korea make good on its promise to invade and occupy SK.

What would Putin do without having to worry about American military involvement? I don't know, but well over a thousand years of history tells us that Europe could war among itself in some horrific manner and likely export the problem to other areas of the world.

The effect on the U.S. would be bad for its economy. Power projection is a key strength to protecting your overseas assets and if the U.S. could no longer project power then the other nations of the world have to protect themselves in some substantial manner.

It would provide opportunities into which other nations would rush take advantage of, and those poised to take advantage are China, India, and Russia, and some of the Western European powers of course. And I'm sure they'd all divvy it up equally and peacefully.