June Election UK. Which Party do you think should win the election

[Derec]

More on Comrade Jezza being completely unsuited for being PM.
Jeremy Corbyn spoke at rally alongside islamic hate preacher linked to Lee Rigby killers

 

[bilby]

More on Comrade Jezza being completely unsuited for being PM.
Jeremy Corbyn spoke at rally alongside islamic hate preacher linked to Lee Rigby killers

I bet you have been 'alongside' someone that the Express could 'link to' someone unpleasant too.

A real challenge might be to find someone who doesn't have this most tenuous of connections to a violent crime.

I understand that Kevin Bacon is very popular in the Express newsroom.

 

[Derec]

I bet you have been 'alongside' someone that the Express could 'link to' someone unpleasant too.

Perhaps, but unlike Corbyn I have never spoken at extremist rallies where "gas, gas Tel Aviv" was yelled by the crowd.

Anyway, the exit poll indicates it might be a hung parliament.

If these numbers were to remain as they are, Tories would be 12 seats short of a majority, which would be a disastrous result for May. Remember, her plan was to increase her majority
Luckily, not enough people followed the pied piper Corbyn either, and Labour is much farther away from a majority. In fact, Labour+LibDems+SNP equals Tories in this exit poll. But remember, this is still an exit poll. A 12 seat deficit can be overcome when actual votes are counted, or it could go the other way of course. It will be a long night in London.

LMAO, BBC World Service just compared Theresa May to Hillary Clinton in that they both failed to offer a vision and a positive case to vote for them, instead focusing on who they were not and how bad the alternative is.

 

[blastula]

Exit polling doesn't look good for May.

 

[bilby]

Looking just at the first four seats to declare, it seems that the UKIP vote is disappearing in the North, and going two-thirds to Con and one third to Lab; and the LibDem vote is disappearing in the South, and going two-thirds to Lab and one third to Con.

If this pattern were to be repeated elsewhere, then the traditional 'swing' analysis will be very distorted - The swings will appear to disfavour the encumbents across the country - and a hung parliament is very much on the cards, with a reduced LibDem filling the middle ground between similarly sized Lab and Con caucuses.

Of course, it's far too early to say whether this will be the nationwide trend.

ETA it appears that the Green supporters are voting tactically - The green vote is way down, and almost entirely going to Lab in early results.

The 'return to two party politics' in England seems very much to be on the cards; If the early results are repeated elsewhere, the minor parties (UKIP, LibDem and Green) are going to practically disappear, with the possible exception of the LibDem heartland, where tactical voting might give some of the Lab vote to the LibDem candidates.

 

[bilby]

Things are looking increasingly grim for May, with Labour holding a number of seats targeted by the Tories.

In early counting, the only seats to change hands so far, are two gains for Labour - one from SNP, and the other from the Conservatives.

A hung parliament seems the most likely result at this stage; An increased Con majority, which was the entire justification for the early election, seems very unlikely indeed.

 

[bilby]

Well it looks like the Conservatives might hold on to enough seats to govern in coalition with the Northern Ireland DUP; The Tories are taking a beating from Labour in England and Wales, but are picking up seats in Scotland, where the decline of the SNP is splitting the left-wing vote, and allowing Conservative candidates to win.

Current BBC predictions have a hung parliament, but as long as the Tories have within four or five seats of a majority, they should be able to cling onto government with Unionist support.

 

[Sarpedon]

Why would the Irish Unionists be in favor of Brexit? Surely they will see the risk of Brexit causing pressure in NI to leave and join EU Ireland, just as Scotland has threatened to leave.

 

[bilby]

Why would the Irish Unionists be in favor of Brexit? Surely they will see the risk of Brexit causing pressure in NI to leave and join EU Ireland, just as Scotland has threatened to leave.

Historically, the Unionists have tended to side with the Tories, and the Republicans with Labour - Brexit is not the only (or even the major) policy driver here. The Northern Ireland vote seems to have become more polarized, with the more moderate SDLP and UU losing to the more extreme DUP and Sinn Fein; Sinn Fein MPs don't take their seats (as a protest against rule from Westminster), leaving most of the NI members as supporters of the Conservative Party in forming government.

Of course, it's quite possible that even with the DUP, The Tories might not have a majority, and a Labour/SNP/LibDem coalition is a real possibility. At this stage, labour are the big winners on the night, but about half of their gains have been at the expense of the SNP rather than the Tories, so don't have a huge impact on the left/right balance in the final result.

Right now, I would be very surprised if May is leader of the Conservatives on Monday; and unsurprised if there isn't another General Election within a year - it seems unlikely in the extreme that any party or coalition can form a stable government on the basis of the results as they stand.

Once the more marginal seats declare, we will have a clearer picture; but likely the Conservatives will be largest party, and will form a fractious coalition with the DUP, some independents, and maybe the Lib Dems (although the latter have been bitten before by trying that option, and might be twice shy).

The big winners right now are the Labour Left, whose choice of Corbyn as leader is looking a lot more positive than the media spin since his election to the leadership would indicate. This result is certainly a vindication for all the Corbynistas out there, and hopefully will drive a stake through the heart of the Blairite wing of the party.

 

[whichphilosophy]

None of the major parties will do anything about the 600,000 something immigration per year and rising (1/2 that after taking into account people who left), yet housing shortages are not being addressed.

The BREXIT process seems to have remained static since the referendum.

 

[bilby]

None of the major parties will do anything about the 600,000 something immigration per year and rising (1/2 that after taking into account people who left), yet housing shortages are not being addressed.

The BREXIT process seems to have remained static since the referendum.

As far as I am aware, you are the only person who thinks that the housing shortage is the most major issue facing the UK government, so it's not really surprising that none of the major parties care to do anything about it.

The Brexit clusterfuck hasn't progressed at all since the referendum, and that's one of the reasons why May has lost her party's commons majority, rather than increasing it as she anticipated when she called a snap election.

With luck, a minority Tory government under a new leader will be forced to back away from May's insane idea that "no deal is better than a bad deal", and will get their finger out and start trying to limit the inevitable damage from this crazy policy - ideally, the new government will withdraw the Article 50 declaration completely, and hold a new referendum, to find out what the actual "will of the people" is, now that they understand that Boris and Nigel were lying about spending 350 million on the NHS.

 

[whichphilosophy]

None of the major parties will do anything about the 600,000 something immigration per year and rising (1/2 that after taking into account people who left), yet housing shortages are not being addressed.

The BREXIT process seems to have remained static since the referendum.

As far as I am aware, you are the only person who thinks that the housing shortage is the most major issue facing the UK government, so it's not really surprising that none of the major parties care to do anything about it.

The Brexit clusterfuck hasn't progressed at all since the referendum, and that's one of the reasons why May has lost her party's commons majority, rather than increasing it as she anticipated when she called a snap election.

With luck, a minority Tory government under a new leader will be forced to back away from May's insane idea that "no deal is better than a bad deal", and will get their finger out and start trying to limit the inevitable damage from this crazy policy - ideally, the new government will withdraw the Article 50 declaration completely, and hold a new referendum, to find out what the actual "will of the people" is, now that they understand that Boris and Nigel were lying about spending 350 million on the NHS.

Most of what you say I agree with where in brief May has a history of uselessness. May has so far done nothing on BREXIT and the EU leaders need to be a bit more adult about this.
Housing is a fundamental issue for those families packed into small flats, where young people and old people are turned away by councils even though they are supposed to find temporary places.

There is no point in driving people into Britain from abroad without new places for them to live in.

We will have more money to spend on the NHS after BREXIT, but given the Tory record it wont be spent on the NHS but simply vanish as cuts continue.

Building affordable housing will create jobs and provide a return in the future. Most police and nurses who work in London have moved out as rents are unaffordable.

Someone on £30,000 per year could not afford £3,000 per month in Central London for a one bedroom flat or pack into shared accommodation for around £1,500.00

The Public Debt is around £1.7 trillion most of it in high mortgages due to high house prices. The National Debt is also high. A few EU members had to be bailed out, but in the UK since we joined the EU we had to bale out institutions such as Lloyds, the Royal Bank of Scotland, the Cooperative Bank all of which ran for hundreds of years. In addition the Midland Bank was taken over by the HSBC

If we have another referendum and they vote to leave what then? All parties recognise it won't take 2 years especially when the process has not started and there are complex issues to guarantee the welfare of hundreds of thousands of EU citizens living in the UK and the far smaller amount of UK citizens living in Europe.

 

[repoman]

What is going to happen is that a coalition will give a minor party the power to reverse Brexit (by various methods) because it will be the condition of it joining.

I wonder if TPTB wanted a hung parliament to get this to happen. Theresa May does not have to be the one who stops Brexit, even a Tory led government will not have her as head. This is the same as Cameron stepping down.

Brexit will be halted/reversed. Lib-Dems/Labour or DUP/Tories will make it so.

 

[bilby]

As far as I am aware, you are the only person who thinks that the housing shortage is the most major issue facing the UK government, so it's not really surprising that none of the major parties care to do anything about it.

The Brexit clusterfuck hasn't progressed at all since the referendum, and that's one of the reasons why May has lost her party's commons majority, rather than increasing it as she anticipated when she called a snap election.

With luck, a minority Tory government under a new leader will be forced to back away from May's insane idea that "no deal is better than a bad deal", and will get their finger out and start trying to limit the inevitable damage from this crazy policy - ideally, the new government will withdraw the Article 50 declaration completely, and hold a new referendum, to find out what the actual "will of the people" is, now that they understand that Boris and Nigel were lying about spending 350 million on the NHS.

Most of what you say I agree with where in brief May has a history of uselessness. May has so far done nothing on BREXIT and the EU leaders need to be a bit more adult about this.
Housing is a fundamental issue for those families packed into small flats, where young people and old people are turned away by councils even though they are supposed to find temporary places.

There is no point in driving people into Britain from abroad without new places for them to live in.

We will have more money to spend on the NHS after BREXIT, but given the Tory record it wont be spent on the NHS but simply vanish as cuts continue.

Building affordable housing will create jobs and provide a return in the future. Most police and nurses who work in London have moved out as rents are unaffordable.

Someone on £30,000 per year could not afford £3,000 per month in Central London for a one bedroom flat or pack into shared accommodation for around £1,500.00

The Public Debt is around £1.7 trillion most of it in high mortgages due to high house prices. The National Debt is also high. A few EU members had to be bailed out, but in the UK since we joined the EU we had to bale out institutions such as Lloyds, the Royal Bank of Scotland, the Cooperative Bank all of which ran for hundreds of years. In addition the Midland Bank was taken over by the HSBC

If we have another referendum and they vote to leave what then? All parties recognise it won't take 2 years especially when the process has not started and there are complex issues to guarantee the welfare of hundreds of thousands of EU citizens living in the UK and the far smaller amount of UK citizens living in Europe.

If we have another referendum and they vote to leave, then re-invoke Article 50, and you are not one bit worse off for having confirmed the earlier result. I think it is very clear that, given the closeness of the original vote; the drubbing the Tories (and particularly UKIP) have had tonight; and the exposure of the lies told by the Leave campaign in the run up to the first referendum, any new referendum would be a sizable 'Remain' victory - and if it's not, then the morons deserve everything they get.

The actual consequences of Brexit are certainly clearer now than they were when the question was first asked. Call me old-fashioned, but I think it's better to find out what the options are, and then ask people to pick one; than to ask people to pick an option, and then find out what they are.

(And you needn't keep trying to explain why you are so worried about the housing crisis; The reason nobody wants to debate it with you is not that other people don't understand, it's that they don't care. It's a non-issue, despite your one-man campaign to raise awareness).

 

[bilby]

What is going to happen is that a coalition will give a minor party the power to reverse Brexit (by various methods) because it will be the condition of it joining.

I wonder if TPTB wanted a hung parliament to get this to happen.

Brexit will be halted/reversed. Lib-Dems or DUP will make it so.

I think the DUP will be perfectly happy to see a defended border put in place between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and will support Brexit.

The Ulster Unionists (maybe), SDLP and Sinn Fein would perhaps prefer to see both parts of the island as EU members; But none of them are sending MPs to Westminster - UU and SDLP because they didn't win any seats, and Sinn Fein because they never take the seats they win.

At this stage, it seems unlikely that a CON/DUP coalition would require any further support to form government, albeit one with a shaky majority of only one or two seats.

I still foresee another election within a year.

 

[repoman]

Am I taking crazy pills to think that May took a dive (by running a poor campaign) so that Brexit would be halted? Even if the Tories had 335 that would be an embarrassment worthy of resigning. And with resigning dies the promise "Brexit means Brexit".

 

[repoman]

What is going to happen is that a coalition will give a minor party the power to reverse Brexit (by various methods) because it will be the condition of it joining.

I wonder if TPTB wanted a hung parliament to get this to happen.

Brexit will be halted/reversed. Lib-Dems or DUP will make it so.

I think the DUP will be perfectly happy to see a defended border put in place between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and will support Brexit.

The Ulster Unionists (maybe), SDLP and Sinn Fein would perhaps prefer to see both parts of the island as EU members; But none of them are sending MPs to Westminster - UU and SDLP because they didn't win any seats, and Sinn Fein because they never take the seats they win.

At this stage, it seems unlikely that a CON/DUP coalition would require any further support to form government, albeit one with a shaky majority of only one or two seats.

I still foresee another election within a year.

Wow, a defended border. What is on the border now? This election is going to have a lot of knock on effects, huh?

 

[bilby]

Am I taking crazy pills to think that May took a dive (by running a poor campaign) so that Brexit would be halted?

Yes, you are. But that tin-foil headgear looks very fetching.

Even if the Tories had 335 that would be an embarrassment worthy of resigning. And with resigning dies the promise "Brexit means Brexit".

We can certainly hope so. But that remains to be seen - first let's see who the new PM is.

The DUP are rabidly protestant, and are unlikely to be good at compromising - a necessary skill for a junior coalition partner.

There will be another election soon.

 

[bilby]

I think the DUP will be perfectly happy to see a defended border put in place between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and will support Brexit.

The Ulster Unionists (maybe), SDLP and Sinn Fein would perhaps prefer to see both parts of the island as EU members; But none of them are sending MPs to Westminster - UU and SDLP because they didn't win any seats, and Sinn Fein because they never take the seats they win.

At this stage, it seems unlikely that a CON/DUP coalition would require any further support to form government, albeit one with a shaky majority of only one or two seats.

I still foresee another election within a year.

Wow, a defended border. What is on the border now? This election is going to have a lot of knock on effects, huh?

Both sides are EU countries; Right now the border consists of a signpost on the A1 southbound that reads "Teorainneacha Luais Ciliméadair san Uair - Speed Limits Kilometres Per Hour"; and on the northbound side "Speed limits in Miles per Hour".

There are some cameras on the border, so presumably the Police and Gardaí keep an eye out for vehicles belonging to persons of interest. But there's nothing else that would indicate to a casual motorist that he has gone from one country to another.

Post Brexit, presumably a full blown customs and passport control facility will be needed, similar to what exists today on the US/Canada border.

 

[Philos]

Folks,

An excellent result. Britain is back to normal, thank the Lord. UKIP gone, Nick Clegg gone, SNP won't get another independence vote, and the Tories will have to be propped up by the UU who are anti - brexit!

Alex.