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Blame Canada!

SLD

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Three articles that have me seriously worried about our economy. We’re starting a trade war with Canada?!!? It’s like our president is living in a bad episode of Southpark.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...eecfa8741b6_story.html?utm_term=.79f372ed983a

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...nd-its-a-jumbled-mess/?utm_term=.edda16b2d22a

The president’s only previous idea about trade was entirely derived from misunderstanding an off-hand remark that a wealthy man made to him in the steam room of an exclusive golf course sometime in the 1980s, a remark he has doggedly repeated any time someone has brought the issue up — whether it made sense in context or not. For the entire past year, experts have sat down with him and tried to explain that his ideas on this subject are bad and will cause serious problems, not only for the country but for him personally, if he tries to put them into practice. But instead of listening to them, he made lip farts and pushed a golf ball around on his desk.

And then this one from the Grumpy Economist

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2018/02/tremors.html

US 10 year yields are 2.9% already. German yields are 0.68%. Why aren't people buying our debt? Well, number one, they are worrying a further slide in the dollar. Which comes when next year's international bond holders really don't want to hold US debt.

So we’re starting a trade war in the midst of a potentially serious devaluation of the dollar. All while Cheeto makes lip fart noises while listening to what experts tell him is fucked up.

Can this end well? Me thinks not.

SLD
 
Remember, there's no way to have America First if we're tied to our stupid allies. Hence this President moved swiftly in his first few weeks in office to 1) give the damn Aussie p.m. an earful of what a douche he is...2) let us know that the Brits did Obama's wiretapping as a favour...3) let us know that the Germans are being Merkel-fucked with immigrants....4) that London is a big bunch of feckless poofters when it comes to terrorists...In recent months the Administration has rolled out its Suck This, South Korea policy...its New Least Favored Nations program (Shitholes vs. Norway)....followed by the new, brilliant broadside on tariffs. We're seeing history, folks. A brand new, GRRRREAT America has stepped on the world stage. 'Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!'
 
Remember, there's no way to have America First if we're tied to our stupid allies. Hence this President moved swiftly in his first few weeks in office to 1) give the damn Aussie p.m. an earful of what a douche he is...2) let us know that the Brits did Obama's wiretapping as a favour...3) let us know that the Germans are being Merkel-fucked with immigrants....4) that London is a big bunch of feckless poofters when it comes to terrorists...In recent months the Administration has rolled out its Suck This, South Korea policy...its New Least Favored Nations program (Shitholes vs. Norway)....followed by the new, brilliant broadside on tariffs. We're seeing history, folks. A brand new, GRRRREAT America has stepped on the world stage. 'Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!'


:notworthy::notworthy::notworthy::notworthy:
^All must bow to Trump!^

The sad thing is that down here in Trump land, he’s viewed as a god who can do no wrong and there are no economic problems foreseen because everything is going great.

SLD
 
Eh, Canadians have been obsessing about us for years. At least they're finally getting some attention.

Seriously though, anyone who remembers the particulars of the Depression should be very, very alarmed by casual talk of a trade war. No one wins a trade war, prosperity comes from stability. Well, no one wins but con men.
 
Trump is right, the aluminum and steel industries are strategic industries. Which is why there is so much overproduction of steel and aluminum around the world because every country in the world considers steel and aluminum to be strategic industries. I was involved in both the iron (most of the efforts in making steel are the efforts to get iron) and the aluminum industry, we provided many of the heavy capital machines used in those industries.

I think that Trump will be disappointed at the poor condition of the iron and the aluminum industries in the US and how reluctant everyone will be to invest in those industries faced with the absolute certainty of how temporary these tariffs will be. The US has committed suicide in its heavy industries by its dedication to neoliberalism and the short-term profits gained from low wages. And it is certain that the next president will reverse these tariffs. All that Trump has done is to raise the costs of steel and aluminum in the US and has made the industries that use them less competitive.
 
Trump is right, the aluminum and steel industries are strategic industries. Which is why there is so much overproduction of steel and aluminum around the world because every country in the world considers steel and aluminum to be strategic industries. I was involved in both the iron (most of the efforts in making steel are the efforts to get iron) and the aluminum industry, we provided many of the heavy capital machines used in those industries.
The irony is that the US considers Canadian Aluminum to be a strategic industry to US security.
 
Remember, there's no way to have America First if we're tied to our stupid allies. Hence this President moved swiftly in his first few weeks in office to 1) give the damn Aussie p.m. an earful of what a douche he is...2) let us know that the Brits did Obama's wiretapping as a favour...3) let us know that the Germans are being Merkel-fucked with immigrants....4) that London is a big bunch of feckless poofters when it comes to terrorists...In recent months the Administration has rolled out its Suck This, South Korea policy...its New Least Favored Nations program (Shitholes vs. Norway)....followed by the new, brilliant broadside on tariffs. We're seeing history, folks. A brand new, GRRRREAT America has stepped on the world stage. 'Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!'


:notworthy::notworthy::notworthy::notworthy:
^All must bow to Trump!^

The sad thing is that down here in Trump land...
I much prefer the term Trumpworld

One can even watch a trailer for such a futuristic movie ;) Though it really should have included some clips relative to Sexbots...
 
Trump is right that globalization has hurt industries and their workers in the US. No developed country should expect any result other than this when embracing free trade with low labor cost countries.

The only reason for a developed country to do so would be to help the underdeveloped country, a kind of foreign aid. In this case, we have helped, inexplicitly, an enemy and rival, the last major communist country in the world, to save their economy. In the modern economy, especially when there are no restrictions on the capital flow out and the value that a developed country has is ideas and technical methodology, there is nothing to prevent these things crossing borders.

It would be better had we bestowed the benefits of making Mexico our low wage partner. It would have at least helped the problem we have with illegal immigration from Mexico. This wasn't an option for the neoliberals who needed the lowest possible wages to produce the highest possible profits to and the largest possible increase in the income of the wealthy to produce the miracle of trickle down, prosperity for all of us.

Free trade is a cornerstone of neoliberal ideology. Trump is going to find that the harshest critics of this policy are in his own party, Paul Ryan and the other Libertarian leaning, at least on economics, free market, free trade warriors. The major impact on the US was to lower the wage bill of the corporations who outsourced their production and a decrease in the economic activity in the US because of the lower wages. The corporations picked up another tool to suppress wage demands.

There is no reason to believe that this will start a trade war on the scale of the one started by the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised tariffs on virtually everything that was imported. There will be tariffs raised targeting American products but in the overall 20+ trillion dollar economy these won't have any measurable impact on the overall economy.
 
Trump does have a point with his economic nationalism. But in his approach he seems to have only considered the headlines he'll generate. Stick it to the foreigners, MAGA!
 
Trump is right that globalization has hurt industries and their workers in the US. No developed country should expect any result other than this when embracing free trade with low labor cost countries.

The only reason for a developed country to do so would be to help the underdeveloped country, a kind of foreign aid. In this case, we have helped, inexplicitly, an enemy and rival, the last major communist country in the world, to save their economy. In the modern economy, especially when there are no restrictions on the capital flow out and the value that a developed country has is ideas and technical methodology, there is nothing to prevent these things crossing borders.

It would be better had we bestowed the benefits of making Mexico our low wage partner. It would have at least helped the problem we have with illegal immigration from Mexico. This wasn't an option for the neoliberals who needed the lowest possible wages to produce the highest possible profits to and the largest possible increase in the income of the wealthy to produce the miracle of trickle down, prosperity for all of us.

Free trade is a cornerstone of neoliberal ideology. Trump is going to find that the harshest critics of this policy are in his own party, Paul Ryan and the other Libertarian leaning, at least on economics, free market, free trade warriors. The major impact on the US was to lower the wage bill of the corporations who outsourced their production and a decrease in the economic activity in the US because of the lower wages. The corporations picked up another tool to suppress wage demands.

There is no reason to believe that this will start a trade war on the scale of the one started by the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised tariffs on virtually everything that was imported. There will be tariffs raised targeting American products but in the overall 20+ trillion dollar economy these won't have any measurable impact on the overall economy.
+1 This.

As an aside.... 500 more steel workers added to Illinois today: http://www.wtae.com/article/us-steel-will-restart-granite-city-steel-plant/19154100

An extremely important aspect of this (and will not be mentioned by CNN) is these jobs are not Wal mart jobs but middle class jobs. A job where the worker has good health benefits and can actually support a family of 4. This is a victory for the US middle class that will not get any media attention.

I'm actually surprised this happened. If I were the CEO of US Steel I think I would have played it safe and waited to make sure the tariffs actually take place. IMO there is a 50% chance Trump could change his mind under all the pressure from Goldman Sachs. Or the democrats might still impeach Trump over the fake Russia scandal. The future is always uncertain. In any case, without Trump there would be no prayer at all for these new jobs. Even Trumps own administration is fighting against this, never mind the entrenched Republicans and Democrats.

But anyway here is my scoreboard of what Trump has accomplished thus far for the middle class:
1. He brought down TPP
2. He has attempted curtailment of immigration.
3. He shows promise in getting rid of NAFTA.
4. He has put China' on notice for unfair trade practices.
5. He has attempted to protect the coal industry. Which wont matter in the end, but it does show a real intent to help the working class.
6. Saving the steel and aluminum industry
 
Trump is right, the aluminum and steel industries are strategic industries. Which is why there is so much overproduction of steel and aluminum around the world because every country in the world considers steel and aluminum to be strategic industries. I was involved in both the iron (most of the efforts in making steel are the efforts to get iron) and the aluminum industry, we provided many of the heavy capital machines used in those industries.
The irony is that the US considers Canadian Aluminum to be a strategic industry to US security.

Is anyone surprised that Trump didn't know this?
 
Trump is right that globalization has hurt industries and their workers in the US. No developed country should expect any result other than this when embracing free trade with low labor cost countries.

The only reason for a developed country to do so would be to help the underdeveloped country, a kind of foreign aid. In this case, we have helped, inexplicitly, an enemy and rival, the last major communist country in the world, to save their economy. In the modern economy, especially when there are no restrictions on the capital flow out and the value that a developed country has is ideas and technical methodology, there is nothing to prevent these things crossing borders.

It would be better had we bestowed the benefits of making Mexico our low wage partner. It would have at least helped the problem we have with illegal immigration from Mexico. This wasn't an option for the neoliberals who needed the lowest possible wages to produce the highest possible profits to and the largest possible increase in the income of the wealthy to produce the miracle of trickle down, prosperity for all of us.

Free trade is a cornerstone of neoliberal ideology. Trump is going to find that the harshest critics of this policy are in his own party, Paul Ryan and the other Libertarian leaning, at least on economics, free market, free trade warriors. The major impact on the US was to lower the wage bill of the corporations who outsourced their production and a decrease in the economic activity in the US because of the lower wages. The corporations picked up another tool to suppress wage demands.

There is no reason to believe that this will start a trade war on the scale of the one started by the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which raised tariffs on virtually everything that was imported. There will be tariffs raised targeting American products but in the overall 20+ trillion dollar economy these won't have any measurable impact on the overall economy.
+1 This.

As an aside.... 500 more steel workers added to Illinois today: http://www.wtae.com/article/us-steel-will-restart-granite-city-steel-plant/19154100

An extremely important aspect of this (and will not be mentioned by CNN) is these jobs are not Wal mart jobs but middle class jobs. A job where the worker has good health benefits and can actually support a family of 4. This is a victory for the US middle class that will not get any media attention.

I'm actually surprised this happened. If I were the CEO of US Steel I think I would have played it safe and waited to make sure the tariffs actually take place. IMO there is a 50% chance Trump could change his mind under all the pressure from Goldman Sachs. Or the democrats might still impeach Trump over the fake Russia scandal. The future is always uncertain. In any case, without Trump there would be no prayer at all for these new jobs. Even Trumps own administration is fighting against this, never mind the entrenched Republicans and Democrats.

But anyway here is my scoreboard of what Trump has accomplished thus far for the middle class:
1. He brought down TPP
2. He has attempted curtailment of immigration.
3. He shows promise in getting rid of NAFTA.
4. He has put China' on notice for unfair trade practices.
5. He has attempted to protect the coal industry. Which wont matter in the end, but it does show a real intent to help the working class.
6. Saving the steel and aluminum industry

I am afraid that the biggest threat to the tariffs is if Trump changes his mind. If Fox and Freinds or Sean Hannity voice disapproval of the tariffs, for example.

I find little support for the tariffs in the media, even on the editorial pages of the left leaning papers, the New York Times, The Washington Post, etc. where you would expect to find support for them. The left in the US is a milquetoast, barely reconizable version of what it was in the past, quibbling among themselves, ironically, over who are the real liberals.
 
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Trump does have a point with his economic nationalism. But in his approach, he seems to have only considered the headlines he'll generate. Stick it to the foreigners, MAGA!

The rest of the world has been slowly retreating from globalization. But they haven't for the most part been using tariffs to do it because that is an overt, easily seen and certain to be contested and countered action. Rather they are using more subtle means like capital controls, disguised subsidies to industries to grow jobs, restricting IP transfers, loan guarantees, support for industrial training, etc.
 
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