The Virus - Are You Affected?

[ZiprHead]

Australian researchers claim two existing drugs could 'cure' COVID-19 after patients they tested responded 'very well' to treatment

Drugs used to treat HIV and malaria could be used to tackle the coronavirus, according to scientists in Australia.

A team of infectious disease experts at the University of Queensland in Brisbane say they have seen two existing medications manage to wipe out COVID-19 infections.

Chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, and HIV-suppressing combination lopinavir/ritonavir have both reportedly shown promising results in human tests and made the virus 'disappear' in infected patients.

The drugs are being tested as researchers and doctors around the world scramble to try and find a vaccine, cure or treatment for the deadly virus.

 

[ruby sparks]

Australian researchers claim two existing drugs could 'cure' COVID-19 after patients they tested responded 'very well' to treatment

Drugs used to treat HIV and malaria could be used to tackle the coronavirus, according to scientists in Australia.

A team of infectious disease experts at the University of Queensland in Brisbane say they have seen two existing medications manage to wipe out COVID-19 infections.

Chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, and HIV-suppressing combination lopinavir/ritonavir have both reportedly shown promising results in human tests and made the virus 'disappear' in infected patients.

The drugs are being tested as researchers and doctors around the world scramble to try and find a vaccine, cure or treatment for the deadly virus.

Reading up on this I see China discovered it in February.

Antimalarial drug confirmed effective on COVID-19
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138792545.htm

Why was I not told?

 

[Copernicus]

Australian researchers claim two existing drugs could 'cure' COVID-19 after patients they tested responded 'very well' to treatment

Drugs used to treat HIV and malaria could be used to tackle the coronavirus, according to scientists in Australia.

A team of infectious disease experts at the University of Queensland in Brisbane say they have seen two existing medications manage to wipe out COVID-19 infections.

Chloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, and HIV-suppressing combination lopinavir/ritonavir have both reportedly shown promising results in human tests and made the virus 'disappear' in infected patients.

The drugs are being tested as researchers and doctors around the world scramble to try and find a vaccine, cure or treatment for the deadly virus.

Reading up on this I see China discovered it in February.

Antimalarial drug confirmed effective on COVID-19
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138792545.htm

Why was I not told?

Probably because some people are making an awful lot of money by selling people chloroquine phosphate at inflated prices. This epidemic is a golden opportunity for scam artists, and the internet is an ideal place for them to operate.

See: Chloroquine has not been approved as a treatment for COVID-19

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

Distilleries in Maryland are ramping up to make hand sanitizer, which they will donate or sell at affordable prices.

 

[ZiprHead]

Reading up on this I see China discovered it in February.

Antimalarial drug confirmed effective on COVID-19
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138792545.htm

Why was I not told?

Probably because some people are making an awful lot of money by selling people chloroquine phosphate at inflated prices. This epidemic is a golden opportunity for scam artists, and the internet is an ideal place for them to operate.

See: Chloroquine has not been approved as a treatment for COVID-19

You can get quinine in tonic water. Gin and tonics for the win!

 

[blastula]

View attachment 26585

I have been seeing this kind of comparison a lot lately. People ignore that the population of Italy is more than five times smaller. So the blue bar would have to be shrunk by a factor of five for it to be a fair comparison with the red bar.

The takeaway is: we are not on the trajectory of Italy. Not even close.

We have have also done several times less testing than Italy has. That will change soon, this week our testing increased a lot.

 

[Half-Life]

So you are OK with someone being forced to work there with a fever because they can't close down if he doesn't show up to work?

I didn't say any such thing.

Personally, I think your story is the Trump equivalent of "people are saying...".

Frankly, if someone said they were being forced to work with COVID-19 symptoms, I'd be on the phone to the county health department. Which also makes me wonder WTF is wrong with you that you didn't do that too.

I know how it works there. I knew people who worked there when I was younger and I know someone who works there now. They have 2 people work in the store overnight. If one person is sick, they can not call out because then there is only 1 person working and they can not have only 1 person in the store. They need 2. So, that is why the manager was screaming that he had to come in: because they can not close down the store since it's 24 hours 365 days a year.

I do feel sorry for those people. If they are sick, they are forced to choose between being fired and coming to work because the store can not close down ever.

 

[blastula]

The graph is supposedly representing what the CURRENT situation IS in blue. It shows casses, not the percentage of population that would make the comparison meaningful. What the trend will be in the future in the U.S. is unknown. It MAY follow the trend in Italy or it MAY be drastically different. Since Italy did not institute early measures to mitigate the spread and the U.S. did, the chances are that the trends will be different.

The US enacted policies quicker?

Yes.

According to?

 

[blastula]

Meanwhile, some people are living in ignorant bliss.

No news is good news: Big Brother guests unaware of pandemic | World news | The Guardian

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Reading up on this I see China discovered it in February.

Antimalarial drug confirmed effective on COVID-19
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-02/17/c_138792545.htm

Why was I not told?

Probably because some people are making an awful lot of money by selling people chloroquine phosphate at inflated prices. This epidemic is a golden opportunity for scam artists, and the internet is an ideal place for them to operate.

See: Chloroquine has not been approved as a treatment for COVID-19

You can get quinine in tonic water. Gin and tonics for the win!

I'm in. Where do I sign up for trials?

 

[ronburgundy]

View attachment 26585

I have been seeing this kind of comparison a lot lately. People ignore that the population of Italy is more than five times smaller. So the blue bar would have to be shrunk by a factor of five for it to be a fair comparison with the red bar.

The takeaway is: we are not on the trajectory of Italy. Not even close.

Btw: there seems to be some evidence that Italy is finally turning the corner.
View attachment 26600
From here.
The slope of the logarithmic plot is flattening, which means that the growth rate is going down.

Italy's population density is almost 7 times greater than the US. Since population density is a major factor in the spread, that means two things: 1) It means the US won't likely see it as bad as Italy simply due to pop density, but some US areas will; 2) It also means that the fact that the US growth rate is similar and not much slower than Italy shows that the US government (and it's idiot Trump supporters who refuse to socially distance) are doing a far worse job than Italy given the far easier job they have to do to slow the growth.


Also, only a small fraction people in the US who are highly symptomatic are being tested. Due to lack of testing kits, people with severe symptoms are still being turned away if they personally did not visit China, Italy, Iran, or other major outbreak country (just happened to a friend of mine who lives in Chicago). Plus, many millions of Americans can't afford to get tested and/or don't even have a doctor so they don't know where to go get tested. There are likely many thousands of infected people just staying at home (or going to work as encouraged by Republicans) and trying to "ride it out" and hope it's not COVID. Then, you have the millions of Trump supporters who deny the virus is real and think trying to stop it is Anti-American, so they won't get tested even if they could. All that combines to make the real # of US cases probably 10-20 times greater than the official diagnoses, whereas Italy's numbers are closer to accurate.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

View attachment 26585

I have been seeing this kind of comparison a lot lately. People ignore that the population of Italy is more than five times smaller. So the blue bar would have to be shrunk by a factor of five for it to be a fair comparison with the red bar.

The takeaway is: we are not on the trajectory of Italy. Not even close.

Btw: there seems to be some evidence that Italy is finally turning the corner.
View attachment 26600
From here.
The slope of the logarithmic plot is flattening, which means that the growth rate is going down.

The size of the population has nothing to do with the shape of the curve until it approaches saturation--something it hasn't done anywhere.

The curve in Italy is improving because of the lockdown, not because of anything about the virus.

 

[crazyfingers]

Speaking of isolation, we've just been informed that not only can we not visit my mom in assisted living, all residents are required to stay in their own apartments all the time. No dinner downstairs. No group activities. I've encouraged mom to turn the TV on and get some virtual company. Even having Gilligan's Island playing in the background for 5 hours a day will help.

I don't know how I could take that. While I stay home almost all the time, I have a wife and kids and 2 acres of land that I can walk around outside.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I think that's where they fail to understand that once you enter exponential territory, it looks the same no matter what your scale is.

Until you leave the exponential territory.
View attachment 26602
As you can see, only the first part of the curve looks exponential.
And within the exponential territory, not all exponentials are equivalent. And the slower one with "flattening of the curve" will look exponential for longer.

Our virus response is shit. It is on a clear path, and continues to increase exponentially.

But the question is, what's the exponential increase rate and how long until the exponential behavior ends.

The first quarter of both curves is exponential. The first half is a standard S-shaped growth curve--exponential until capacity limits start to be a factor.

And we are almost certainly already too late to keep from saturating the healthcare system.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

My prediction is that by April we will be laughing going, "Remember how everyone panicked over the coronavirus because the media started fear mongering?"

No. Your repetition of what Faux Noise tells you says that. You have never demonstrated enough understanding to actually make a prediction.

And note what is happening in Italy--they're just a bit farther down the curve than we are.

The flu reinvented itself after 100 years and now everyone's in a panic because of the media. When I was younger, if you didn't have chicken pox, your parents would invent a friend over who had it so you could get it and be done with it. This isolation nonsense is frustrating. I wish I could tell everyone, "Stop getting your info from the media! They are designed to fear monger!"

Stop getting your news from the Ministry of Truth. The flu generally only kills those who were already in a bad way, this kills people who were nowhere nearly as bad off and sometimes leaves lung damage (whether it will eventually heal or not is unknown) even in survivors.

THink about it logically. They are telling bars, restaurants, schools to close. Sports have been cancelled. But places like 711, convenience stores and supermarkets? Still open no problem. Why is this? Either it's a problem or it's not. i suppose they are sending a message that, "you can get the virus at a bar or a restaurant but you can't get it form convenience stores or supermarkets!"

Because they can't simply shut down all of society. The objective is not to prevent every case, but to drive the R₀ as low as possible so it doesn't saturate our healthcare system.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What can you get at a 711 that you can't get at a grocery store?

What are you even trying to argue, now?

Why are 711's and other convenience stores not being forced to close if you can just buy the same stuff at a grocery store, Keith?

7-11s would be safer as there are fewer people in them at any one time.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Speaking of isolation, we've just been informed that not only can we not visit my mom in assisted living, all residents are required to stay in their own apartments all the time. No dinner downstairs. No group activities. I've encouraged mom to turn the TV on and get some virtual company. Even having Gilligan's Island playing in the background for 5 hours a day will help.

I don't know how I could take that. While I stay home almost all the time, I have a wife and kids and 2 acres of land that I can walk around outside.

The only thing I miss about the situation is hiking. (The land isn't flat enough around here to just go wandering around in most places, and if you follow the trails you meet plenty of people. The norm for most areas is get there early or you won't find a parking space.) Once you're an hour in avoiding people would be easy in most situations (once in a while you're in an area where stepping appreciably off the trail isn't possible) because there aren't a lot of them but it's not feasible near the trailheads.

 

[ZiprHead]

So you are OK with someone being forced to work there with a fever because they can't close down if he doesn't show up to work?

I didn't say any such thing.

Personally, I think your story is the Trump equivalent of "people are saying...".

Frankly, if someone said they were being forced to work with COVID-19 symptoms, I'd be on the phone to the county health department. Which also makes me wonder WTF is wrong with you that you didn't do that too.

I know how it works there. I knew people who worked there when I was younger and I know someone who works there now. They have 2 people work in the store overnight. If one person is sick, they can not call out because then there is only 1 person working and they can not have only 1 person in the store. They need 2. So, that is why the manager was screaming that he had to come in: because they can not close down the store since it's 24 hours 365 days a year.

I do feel sorry for those people. If they are sick, they are forced to choose between being fired and coming to work because the store can not close down ever.

You haven't said why you didn't call the health department.

And just because a store is 24/7 now doesn't mean they always have to be 24/7. As a matter of fact, all the 24/7 grocery stores here, Krogers, Walmart, Meijers, are now closing at night.

I bet your boss really likes how you smooch his butt.

 

[bilby]

View attachment 26585

I have been seeing this kind of comparison a lot lately. People ignore that the population of Italy is more than five times smaller. So the blue bar would have to be shrunk by a factor of five for it to be a fair comparison with the red bar.

The takeaway is: we are not on the trajectory of Italy. Not even close.

Btw: there seems to be some evidence that Italy is finally turning the corner.
View attachment 26600
From here.
The slope of the logarithmic plot is flattening, which means that the growth rate is going down.

Italy's population density is almost 7 times greater than the US. Since population density is a major factor in the spread, that means two things: 1) It means the US won't likely see it as bad as Italy simply due to pop density, but some US areas will; 2) It also means that the fact that the US growth rate is similar and not much slower than Italy shows that the US government (and it's idiot Trump supporters who refuse to socially distance) are doing a far worse job than Italy given the far easier job they have to do to slow the growth.


Also, only a small fraction people in the US who are highly symptomatic are being tested. Due to lack of testing kits, people with severe symptoms are still being turned away if they personally did not visit China, Italy, Iran, or other major outbreak country (just happened to a friend of mine who lives in Chicago). Plus, many millions of Americans can't afford to get tested and/or don't even have a doctor so they don't know where to go get tested. There are likely many thousands of infected people just staying at home (or going to work as encouraged by Republicans) and trying to "ride it out" and hope it's not COVID. Then, you have the millions of Trump supporters who deny the virus is real and think trying to stop it is Anti-American, so they won't get tested even if they could. All that combines to make the real # of US cases probably 10-20 times greater than the official diagnoses, whereas Italy's numbers are closer to accurate.

Population density is probably irrelevant.

Most Americans, like most Italians, live in towns and cities; The local population densities are likely very similar for the vast majority of people in both countries.

There's more empty land between towns in the US; But land doesn't vote, or get sick. Apart from the handful of people who live in very isolated areas and rarely venture into their closest town, the difference is likely insignificant; And by definition such isolated people are the exception, not the rule.

The same applies to Australia. Our population density is very low indeed; But almost all of us live in one of a dozen large towns and cities. The empty expanses of central Australia do nothing to protect a Sydneysider crammed onto the rush hour train at Circular Quay, or a Brisbanite at Queen Street bus station.

Population density was likely important in 1919, when a ten mile journey was a long way. It's not so significant in 2020.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So Social Security office is closed indefinitely. So my mother will be going without appropriate coverage for a long while from SS.