What Would Happen if Trump Refused to Leave Office?

[Elixir]

I know we have talked about this in other threads, but I thought it was time for a focused re-visit given the overt signs emerging lately...
Some here are very dismissive of the chances that Trump would ever do such a thing as to refuse to leave office

HERE is a pretty good take IMO.

There's one paragraph in which McQuade explains that Trump loses all power to illegally remain in office from the moment his term ends:

If Trump were inclined to overstay his term, the levers of power work in favor of removal. Because the president immediately and automatically loses his constitutional authority upon expiration of his term or after removal through impeachment, he would lack the power to direct the U.S. Secret Service or other federal agents to protect him. He would likewise lose his power, as the commander in chief of the armed forces, to order a military response to defend him. In fact, the newly minted president would possess those presidential powers. If necessary, the successor could direct federal agents to forcibly remove Trump from the White House. Now a private citizen, Trump would no longer be immune from criminal prosecution, and could be arrested and charged with trespassing in the White House. While even former presidents enjoy Secret Service protection, agents presumably would not follow an illegal order to protect one from removal from office.

Basically, if Biden wins and Trump tries to keep his position with force, nobody is required to obey him. Biden can order the Secret Service to drag Cheetolini out in cuffs.

Nobody is required to obey him, but he and Barr have already assembled their very own Sturmabteilung gang of heavily armed, unmarked thugs that are roving the streets of the Nation's Capitol, terrorizing anyone showing opposition to Twitler's genocidal agenda. No allegiance to anything but The Trump Junta. I wonder how big they can grow their private army between now and November.
This is SO Nazi Germany all over again...

 

[barbos]

The question assumes Trump manages to stay in office until the election.

 

[ZiprHead]

My money's on his resigning if he loses the election, then Pence pardoning him.

 

[Elixir]

The question assumes Trump manages to stay in office until the election.

Yes? Vs. what?
It would be so cool to wake up one morning and find out he has fled to Saudi Arabia or Russia for protection.
But I don't think he has much chance of earning their protection since he has already given them every bit of information he has.
Do you think he will resign in order to get a pardon? Die from the Trump Virus?
PLEASE, barbos - favor us with some vision of 2020 America without Trump in office!

 

[bigfield]

There's one paragraph in which McQuade explains that Trump loses all power to illegally remain in office from the moment his term ends:



Basically, if Biden wins and Trump tries to keep his position with force, nobody is required to obey him. Biden can order the Secret Service to drag Cheetolini out in cuffs.

Nobody is required to obey him, but he and Barr have already assembled their very own Sturmabteilung gang of heavily armed, unmarked thugs that are roving the streets of the Nation's Capitol, terrorizing anyone showing opposition to Twitler's genocidal agenda. No allegiance to anything but The Trump Junta. I wonder how big they can grow their private army between now and November.
This is SO Nazi Germany all over again...

What scenario are you proposing? That a militia terrorises enough DC residents to swing the election?

 

[BH]

Maybe he will sneak off to North Korea and seek asylum with little rocket man who all of a sudden is biggest baddest rocket man.

 

[Jayjay]

My money's on his resigning if he loses the election, then Pence pardoning him.

Pardoning him for what specificly? Wouldn't that be an admission that he did something wrong?

 

[SLD]

There's one paragraph in which McQuade explains that Trump loses all power to illegally remain in office from the moment his term ends:



Basically, if Biden wins and Trump tries to keep his position with force, nobody is required to obey him. Biden can order the Secret Service to drag Cheetolini out in cuffs.

Nobody is required to obey him, but he and Barr have already assembled their very own Sturmabteilung gang of heavily armed, unmarked thugs that are roving the streets of the Nation's Capitol, terrorizing anyone showing opposition to Twitler's genocidal agenda. No allegiance to anything but The Trump Junta. I wonder how big they can grow their private army between now and November.
This is SO Nazi Germany all over again...

What scenario are you proposing? That a militia terrorises enough DC residents to swing the election?

Bill Barr has demonstrated that he is more than willing to engage in unconstitutional troop gatherings to stop Biden from taking over. Expect him to deploy large numbers around polling sites, to protect us voters of course, and to enact legal challenges to every vote they lose, trying to tie things up and to ensure the Supreme Court hears their petition. Which, for now, is 5-4 Republican, but may be 6-3 soon. Expect Barr to simply declare Trump the winner, and that all the votes against Trump are fraudulent. Trump will win with 98.5% of the vote. Expect Trump to call on his Brownshirt Army to stop people from voting, and to stop Biden from taking power even if he clearly wins.. I can see that happening. They stormed the Michigan and Virginia legislatures, and they won’t stop now. Expect the boogaloo. They want it and they’re armed. Barr will order federal law enforcement to stand down and let them. There’s over two months between the election and the inauguration for them to inflect enough mayhem that Trump uses to nullify the results one way or another. He’ll declare martial law and say for the safety of the nation he will, reluctantly, need to stay on. I won’t put it past him or his supporters. What I really fear is that Trump has secured the personal loyalty of the present crop of service chiefs. They are all Trump appointees now. And Milley’s actions the other day were very disturbing.

SLD

 

[Elixir]

What scenario are you proposing? That a militia terrorises enough DC residents to swing the election?

Bill Barr has demonstrated that he is more than willing to engage in unconstitutional troop gatherings to stop Biden from taking over. Expect him to deploy large numbers around polling sites, to protect us voters of course, and to enact legal challenges to every vote they lose, trying to tie things up and to ensure the Supreme Court hears their petition. Which, for now, is 5-4 Republican, but may be 6-3 soon. Expect Barr to simply declare Trump the winner, and that all the votes against Trump are fraudulent. Trump will win with 98.5% of the vote. Expect Trump to call on his Brownshirt Army to stop people from voting, and to stop Biden from taking power even if he clearly wins.. I can see that happening. They stormed the Michigan and Virginia legislatures, and they won’t stop now. Expect the boogaloo. They want it and they’re armed. Barr will order federal law enforcement to stand down and let them. There’s over two months between the election and the inauguration for them to inflect enough mayhem that Trump uses to nullify the results one way or another. He’ll declare martial law and say for the safety of the nation he will, reluctantly, need to stay on. I won’t put it past him or his supporters. What I really fear is that Trump has secured the personal loyalty of the present crop of service chiefs. They are all Trump appointees now. And Milley’s actions the other day were very disturbing.

SLD

Yes, it is unthinkable to the armed minority that the Trump Crime Family's quest to abolish democracy in the US might come to naught. And that certainly would be the result of an electoral rout. There are now enough toadies in the reigning cabal to forestall any possible loss at the ballot box, regardless of the margin.

 

[Elixir]

It looks more and more by the day like there's going to be an authoritarian takeover of the US government this year or early next year.
Will democracy go out with a whimper or with a bang? I think we are not quite at the social imbalance point where Germany was in the '30s, but that only lends to my feeling that there are even more Americans now than there were Germans back then who are willing to plead their political apathy as an excuse for standing by silently as fascists assume control.

America’s Authoritarian Nightmare is Coming True

The worst fears of all were realized, faster, harder, and more terribly than most ever thought possible in America. Especially it’s pundits and intellectuals and so forth — the “wise men” who failed to anticipate, and thus prevent, authoritarianism from hardening. The worst case scenario is the most likely one when it comes to authoritarianism and fascism. That is how America sleepwalked into collapse, right off the edge of a cliff.

...

If we should expect the worst when it comes to collapses like this, then what will the next few months bring? Just ask yourself: what are your worst fears?

They probably go something like this.

Trump uses the civil unrest spreading across America to declare the martial law he’s already threatened to. Soldiers line the streets of major American cities. Real violence begins to break out. Then, Trump declares a state of emergency. Using emergency powers, he postpones the election. Until when? Nobody…knows.

Or maybe the election proceeds. Trump’s margin of loss is close enough to contest, thanks to Facebook and Twitter mostly looking the other way, when it comes to disinformation and propaganda. The case goes to the Supreme Court. Guess who they — leaning heavily Republican — decide it for?

Or maybe Trump loses. And he simply refuses to concede to a peaceful transfer of power. His lawyers cook up some cockamamie case — they excel at those — and it’s sent to the Supreme Court. They dither and dally. The country’s left in limbo. There is no leadership. If you think this is chaos…what about that?

Or maybe Trump wins outright, with a little help from his friends in the Kremlin. Another four years…of this? America’s already way, way past camps, bans, raids, and cages. It’s at soldiers in the nation’s capitol, and people being beaten in the streets.

Four more years? They’d bring something like this. Leading journalists and critics and opposition party members being put on sham trial, on Trumped-up charges (see what I did there?), and thrown in jail. Those camps being filled up with even more minorities — this time, probably citizens. Widespread — even more widespread — brutality from law enforcement. The construction of an Iron Curtain, to keep people in. The rise and triumph of the final and late stages of fascism: institutional dehumanization, state violence, and genocide.

Almost exactly what I have predicted, except that IMHO we already have all three of those things.

Family separations and children in cages - institutional dehumanization.
Police and unmarked "brownshirts" attacking peaceful protesters - State violence.
Then there's the genocide, passive as it might be. 112 thousand known deaths because DJT eviscerated our public health guardrails and went golfing, killing POC at a disproportionate rate...

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Funny, I've seen that prediction happen every four years. Who makes it depends on the party in office, but it is predicted every four years. What if Clinton doesn't leave office ('96 and '00). What if Bush doesn't leave office ('04 and '08). What if Obama doesn't leave office ('12 and '16). What if Trump doesn't leave office ('20).

What makes this prediction right the seventh time it is made? Are you hoping if you predict it enough you can claim great political predictive wisdom? I know you didn't make that prediction in '96, '00, '12, or '16, because fearmongering in those years doesn't help your tribe. It only helps the other tribe. Still, I wish the archives were available to see if you made that prediction in '04 or '08. You did predict that Trump would skip the '16 debates.

Maybe if you predict doom often enough, then eventually maybe you might be right.

 

[Jarhyn]

Funny, I've seen that prediction happen every four years. Who makes it depends on the party in office, but it is predicted every four years. What if Clinton doesn't leave office ('96 and '00). What if Bush doesn't leave office ('04 and '08). What if Obama doesn't leave office ('12 and '16). What if Trump doesn't leave office ('20).

What makes this prediction right the seventh time it is made? Are you hoping if you predict it enough you can claim great political predictive wisdom? I know you didn't make that prediction in '96, '00, '12, or '16, because fearmongering in those years doesn't help your tribe. It only helps the other tribe. Still, I wish the archives were available to see if you made that prediction in '04 or '08. You did predict that Trump would skip the '16 debates.

Maybe if you predict doom often enough, then eventually maybe you might be right.

The difference is, Trump has expressed repeatedly, and made every overture of actually doing what we expect him to.

Also, put up or shut up.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Funny, I've seen that prediction happen every four years. Who makes it depends on the party in office, but it is predicted every four years. What if Clinton doesn't leave office ('96 and '00). What if Bush doesn't leave office ('04 and '08). What if Obama doesn't leave office ('12 and '16). What if Trump doesn't leave office ('20).

What makes this prediction right the seventh time it is made? Are you hoping if you predict it enough you can claim great political predictive wisdom? I know you didn't make that prediction in '96, '00, '12, or '16, because fearmongering in those years doesn't help your tribe. It only helps the other tribe. Still, I wish the archives were available to see if you made that prediction in '04 or '08. You did predict that Trump would skip the '16 debates.

Maybe if you predict doom often enough, then eventually maybe you might be right.

The difference is, Trump has expressed repeatedly, and made every overture of actually doing what we expect him to.

Also, put up or shut up.

You need to put up or shut up on "every overture of actually doing what we expect him to". For me to "put up", I need a time machine to see what he does when his term is over.

If he does leave office when he is supposed to, what will you say to that? Will you admit you were wrong? Will you start telling other people in your political tribe to stop with the doom and gloom predictions ever time it gets close to the end of the term of a president of the other tribe?

No, you won't.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Trump has done enough to corrupt the election process already to warrant suspicion and alarm. Name the other presidents who've held meetings with the Russkies, strong-armed other heads of state to produce dirt on their opponents, and threatened to shut down the p.o. if a "fraudulent" system of mail-in votes is pursued. That he's hare-brained doesn't make him any less toxic. He's got a united party behind him that endorses everything he says and does.

 

[Elixir]

Funny, I've seen that prediction happen every four years.

That speaks to the company you keep. I never heard that abut Carter, Reagan or either Bush. I heard it about Clinton and Obama of course, coming from the usual crackpot republitards.

Maybe if you predict doom often enough, then eventually maybe you might be right.

This being my first time, my record for that prediction is spotless. I never even suspected that Nixon would try to pull a stunt like what Trump is doing in broad daylight. I never even accused Bush of trying to do away with democracy, even when he got a corrupt win from the SCOTUS.
Trump's not subtle or anything... when some jackass career criminal announces out of the gate that he will only accept election results that show him to be the winner and "jokes" twenty seven times about being "president for life" or extending the two term limit... it's kind of a giveaway. What was not clear at the point when he started hinting at it that has become more clear now, is that he's making a credible effort to assemble the means to retain power in the event of an electoral loss.
The fact that his own party elders, his ex chiefs of staff, ex cabinet members, retired military generals etc. are all warning of it is also unprecedented, just FYI.

The fact that your head is two feet deep in the sand and you can't see a thing wrong, is hardly reassuring. You are unable to take issue with a single factual point in that article, or even the specific opinion, other than to weakly assert that people have said that about every president (citation for Carter, please).

 

[Elixir]

Trump has done enough to corrupt the election process already to warrant suspicion and alarm. Name the other presidents who've held meetings with the Russkies, strong-armed other heads of state to produce dirt on their opponents, and threatened to shut down the p.o. if a "fraudulent" system of mail-in votes is pursued. That he's hare-brained doesn't make him any less toxic. He's got a united party behind him that endorses everything he says and does.

No worries - Jason has seen it every four years...

 

[Keith&Co.]

Trump has done enough to corrupt the election process already to warrant suspicion and alarm. Name the other presidents who've held meetings with the Russkies, strong-armed other heads of state to produce dirt on their opponents, and threatened to shut down the p.o. if a "fraudulent" system of mail-in votes is pursued. That he's hare-brained doesn't make him any less toxic. He's got a united party behind him that endorses everything he says and does.

No worries - Jason has seen it every four years...

From different people, for different reasons, out of different fears based on discrete acts by each individual in question. But, sure, lump them collectively and the Orange Scandal Pisstol's cheating is no more likely than, say, any actual career politician who was not facing arrest and prosecution the instant his tenure stops.
Sure.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Trump has done enough to corrupt the election process already to warrant suspicion and alarm. Name the other presidents who've held meetings with the Russkies, strong-armed other heads of state to produce dirt on their opponents, and threatened to shut down the p.o. if a "fraudulent" system of mail-in votes is pursued. That he's hare-brained doesn't make him any less toxic. He's got a united party behind him that endorses everything he says and does.

No worries - Jason has seen it every four years...

From different people, for different reasons, out of different fears based on discrete acts by each individual in question. But, sure, lump them collectively and the Orange Scandal Pisstol's cheating is no more likely than, say, any actual career politician who was not facing arrest and prosecution the instant his tenure stops.
Sure.

From different people, for different reasons, yes. Democrats have nothing to gain by scaremongering about if a Democrat doesn't leave office. Republicans have nothing to gain by scaremongering if a Republican doesn't leave office. Yet I did hear the scaremongering, from different sides, in '96, '00, '04, '08, '12, and '16. Now I'm hearing it in '20.

And every two years I hear "this is the most important election ever so you just can't vote 3rd party". That I heard in '92, '94, '96, '98, '00, '02, '04, '06, '08, '10, '12, '14, '16, and '18. Now I'm hearing it in '20.

 

[Jarhyn]

From different people, for different reasons, out of different fears based on discrete acts by each individual in question. But, sure, lump them collectively and the Orange Scandal Pisstol's cheating is no more likely than, say, any actual career politician who was not facing arrest and prosecution the instant his tenure stops.
Sure.

From different people, for different reasons, yes. Democrats have nothing to gain by scaremongering about if a Democrat doesn't leave office. Republicans have nothing to gain by scaremongering if a Republican doesn't leave office. Yet I did hear the scaremongering, from different sides, in '96, '00, '04, '08, '12, and '16. Now I'm hearing it in '20.

And every two years I hear "this is the most important election ever so you just can't vote 3rd party". That I heard in '92, '94, '96, '98, '00, '02, '04, '06, '08, '10, '12, '14, '16, and '18. Now I'm hearing it in '20.

Prove it. Show us the scaremongering. Put up or shut up.

Although I do find it fairly hilarious that you were unable to parse my previous post and I am here having to dumb it down even more.

Trump himself has repeatedly "joked" about stealing elections, about getting extra terms, about questioning the results of the election. He even attempted questioning the results of the election he did "win" with a minority of votes, and lying about those results.

 

[SLD]

I don’t recall anyone saying such a thing about Clinton or Bush. I recall a few things said about Obama in 2016, but nothing like the talk going around now about Trump. And remember we haven’t had a sitting President defeated since 1992. We are in some strange new land here, and it is getting scarier by the minute.

And now there’s this: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/do...ll-watchers-fight-voter-fraud-no-can-n1217391

While there’ve always been poll watchers, this could indeed be far more ominous, these kind of tactics were used by the Nazis in the 1932 German elections. Let’s just hope we don’t see anything like that happening.