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Europeans considering universal basic income and job guarantees

UBI wouldn't cost as much as opponents like to say. About 75 million citizens are underage and therefore ineligible. Anyone accepting the UBI offer would be ineligible for welfare and other social programs, which not only cost a lot but have additional administrative costs and are far more vulnerable to fraud than flat out unconditional payments. Recipients would be better able to care for themselves and avoid emergency rooms, jails and associated costs which currently run over 1trillion/year (est). There are many possible social benefits that are hard to quantify as dollar amounts without actually trying it.

Looking closely at the proposal, it looks quite feasible even assuming minimal effects like the above mentioned. I'd expect it to drive a YUUUGE economic boom and improve the standard of living even for the "rich". But only trying it would tell the story.
 
Look at what even a low UBI payment would cost, compare it to the federal budget.

UBI can be completely budget neutral. You can fund it with progressive taxation.

The comparison that tells you whether you can afford it isn't with the budget; It's with the highest level of tax revenue that can reasonably be implemented (assuming that you don't want it to be even slightly inflationary - if you can tolerate a small amount of additional inflation, then you could go bigger still, and right now inflation certainly isn't at risk of running away; But that's a different discussion).

Reality: Historical data shows the actual tax take is basically flat despite major change to the tax code. You can't just go raising that kind of money.
 
The notion of "affordability" of an UBI is an interesting one. First, it depends on the projected amount. Second, it depends on the proposed effective (not legislated) tax rates and tax code.

Interestingly, no one every seems to question whether or not this country can afford
1) an actual war,
2) disaster relief (there is always a real disaster somewhere in the USA), or
3) tax expenditures or tax loopholes.

There are roughly 330 million people in the USA. If everyone received an annual check of $20,000, that would mean an annual expenditure (before taxes) of $6.6 trillion dollars.

It is estimated that there are about 125 million households in the USA. So an UBI of $20,000 per household would mean an annual expenditure (before taxes) of about $2.5 trillion.

That does not factor in that a portion of the UBI recipients would pay taxes on their UBI (perhaps the entire amount) or that a large portion of income support programs could be significantly reduced or eliminated.

Current estimated US GDP is $20.5 trillion, so the USA has the productive capacity to institute an UBI. Since current federal tax revenue is around $3.5 to $3.8 billion in a normal year, it would most likely require a significant change in our tax codes.

The real issue is not the fiscal capability but the political will.
 
t is estimated that there are about 125 million households in the USA. So an UBI of $20,000 per household would mean an annual expenditure (before taxes) of about $2.5 trillion.

Isn't that about the same amount as the Trump tax cut prior to the pandemic?
 
UBI wouldn't cost as much as opponents like to say. About 75 million citizens are underage and therefore ineligible. Anyone accepting the UBI offer would be ineligible for welfare and other social programs, which not only cost a lot but have additional administrative costs and are far more vulnerable to fraud than flat out unconditional payments. Recipients would be better able to care for themselves and avoid emergency rooms, jails and associated costs which currently run over 1trillion/year (est). There are many possible social benefits that are hard to quantify as dollar amounts without actually trying it.

Looking closely at the proposal, it looks quite feasible even assuming minimal effects like the above mentioned. I'd expect it to drive a YUUUGE economic boom and improve the standard of living even for the "rich". But only trying it would tell the story.

You just moved a whole bunch of people from Medicaid to normal health insurance and premiums explode.

And why would the economy boom? You would have fewer people working, the economy would shrink!
 
t is estimated that there are about 125 million households in the USA. So an UBI of $20,000 per household would mean an annual expenditure (before taxes) of about $2.5 trillion.

Isn't that about the same amount as the Trump tax cut prior to the pandemic?

Reality check: That $2.5T was over IIRC 10 years. It's not over one year.
 
Look at what even a low UBI payment would cost, compare it to the federal budget.

UBI can be completely budget neutral. You can fund it with progressive taxation.

The comparison that tells you whether you can afford it isn't with the budget; It's with the highest level of tax revenue that can reasonably be implemented (assuming that you don't want it to be even slightly inflationary - if you can tolerate a small amount of additional inflation, then you could go bigger still, and right now inflation certainly isn't at risk of running away; But that's a different discussion).

Reality: Historical data shows the actual tax take is basically flat despite major change to the tax code. You can't just go raising that kind of money.

Reality: Prefacing your dubious opinions with the word 'reality' doesn't make them so.

And federal taxes aren't about raising money; They are about destroying excess money created by government spending that would otherwise be inflationary.

As spending preceeds taxation, rather than following it, there's no problem 'raising' that money - if it's in circulation, you can tax it out (and if it's not, you don't need to, because money that's not circulating isn't adding to inflation).
 
UBI wouldn't cost as much as opponents like to say. About 75 million citizens are underage and therefore ineligible. Anyone accepting the UBI offer would be ineligible for welfare and other social programs, which not only cost a lot but have additional administrative costs and are far more vulnerable to fraud than flat out unconditional payments. Recipients would be better able to care for themselves and avoid emergency rooms, jails and associated costs which currently run over 1trillion/year (est). There are many possible social benefits that are hard to quantify as dollar amounts without actually trying it.

Looking closely at the proposal, it looks quite feasible even assuming minimal effects like the above mentioned. I'd expect it to drive a YUUUGE economic boom and improve the standard of living even for the "rich". But only trying it would tell the story.

You just moved a whole bunch of people from Medicaid to normal health insurance and premiums explode.

No. And there are NOT 330 million ELIGIBLE people in the US. I explained that earlier. You need to read the ACTUAL proposal instead of the right wing rationalizations against it.

And why would the economy boom?

Because the rock bottom foundation of the real economy is consumer confidence.

You would have fewer people working, the economy would shrink!

No, you wouldn't have fewer people working, you'd have fewer people begging and fewer people starving.
 
No. And there are NOT 330 million ELIGIBLE people in the US. I explained that earlier. You need to read the ACTUAL proposal instead of the right wing rationalizations against it.

And why would the economy boom?

Because the rock bottom foundation of the real economy is consumer confidence.

You would have fewer people working, the economy would shrink!

No, you wouldn't have fewer people working, you'd have fewer people begging and fewer people starving.

Also, there's nothing "normal" about health insurance as practiced by the USA. That your healthcare funding model is obviously and stupidly broken is a separate but no less serious problem that you need to address, along with the problem of widespread needless poverty in the world's wealthiest nation.

Both are indictments of your system, and both have the developed world unsure whether to laugh or cry at your ineptitude, cruelty, and inability to learn from the clear example of others.
 
LP, I ran the numbers on this a couple years ago. I think I based it on the following figures (2017-2018 time frame):

1. $25k/year for every adult (starting when one turns 18). This would be adjusted to $30k now.
2. $6k/year for everyone under 18, it goes to their parents, and I think is equivalent to a tax credit/exemption for a minor at the time.
3. Raise the highest tax bracket to 80%, which is lower than it was in the 50s. I think this bracket started around $2 million income.
4. Eliminate the SS Medicare cap and implement UHC. (I "only" assumed a cost slightly higher than the highest current Euro country that has UHC, I don't remember which that was at the time, cuz Murka).
5. I did not take into account any of the projected tax benefits due to the increased consumerism this would entail.

So if you want to prove it wrong, you do the math. Put up or SHUT THE FUCK UP.
 
Reality: Historical data shows the actual tax take is basically flat despite major change to the tax code. You can't just go raising that kind of money.

Reality: Prefacing your dubious opinions with the word 'reality' doesn't make them so.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S

And federal taxes aren't about raising money; They are about destroying excess money created by government spending that would otherwise be inflationary.

Two sides of the same coin.
 
LP, I ran the numbers on this a couple years ago. I think I based it on the following figures (2017-2018 time frame):

1. $25k/year for every adult (starting when one turns 18). This would be adjusted to $30k now.
2. $6k/year for everyone under 18, it goes to their parents, and I think is equivalent to a tax credit/exemption for a minor at the time.

Ok, a reasonable starting point. A quick google search for the demographics of the US gave me $6.7T, but then I realized the population numbers were old and scaled them to the current population for a total of $7.8T. This amounts to nearly 1/3 of GDP and far more than the current federal budget.

3. Raise the highest tax bracket to 80%, which is lower than it was in the 50s. I think this bracket started around $2 million income.

It didn't work then, it won't work now. Note that chart I just posted showing the tax take that resulted.

4. Eliminate the SS Medicare cap and implement UHC. (I "only" assumed a cost slightly higher than the highest current Euro country that has UHC, I don't remember which that was at the time, cuz Murka).

Not relevant to this proposal, but now you have the federal tax take at nearly 2/3 of the GDP and once you add state taxes (I'm assuming nothing changed) you're over 80% of GDP. We would be royally fucked.

5. I did not take into account any of the projected tax benefits due to the increased consumerism this would entail.

So if you want to prove it wrong, you do the math. Put up or SHUT THE FUCK UP.

Obviously you didn't.
 
I think all discussion of initiatives like UBI or of other safety net or welfare schemes founder on the same fundamental problem: What is the victory condition?

How do you define one society as better (or worse) than another? Whether that's an assessment of the past vs the present vs a hoped-for (or to be guarded against) future; Or a comparison between contemporary societies in different places, we all seem to be able to point to extreme examples of societies we don't want to emulate, but it seems that nobody agrees on what we actually want to achieve.

Personally, I would happily sacrifice the ease of obtaining extraordinary wealth, if it allowed us to dramatically reduce poverty, homelessness, and lack of access to food, shelter, healthcare, education, and infrastructure.

But it seems that many people (*cough*Loren Pechtel*cough*) see the absence of freeloaders as more important than the universal availability of those things.

I suspect that there's a fundamental disagreement on what money does. We agree that it's a way to 'keep score' - that (in principle) the more you provide, the more money you should end up with. Indeed, wealth can reasonably be thought of as the debt society owes its holder.

The disagreement comes in the details. It's obvious to me (but apparently not to others) that there's an 'aggregating problem'. A person who invents a 'must have' widget, that almost everyone wants to own, and is prepared to pay $10 for, has perhaps provided $10 of value to each of a hundred million customers; But that doesn't imply that the inventor is owed $1billion by society. We currently use that very simple arithmetic equality, but even then we recognise that a portion of the $1bn 'earned' in this way should simply cease to exist (ie be taxed, which is one of the simplest ways for a currency issuing government to destroy money). Nevertheless, some people become insanely wealthy. Nobody's owed a third private jet because of the tiny value placed on their work by a huge number of people. Certainly not while there are people without sufficient food.

Equally, we accept that money should be created (via government spending), in pursuit of the building of infrastructure, and the provision of certain basics to people who are in need, but unable to provide for themselves. But there are HUGE disagreements as to the degree to which these things should occur, and the degree to which they should be interlinked.

To resolve these disagreements, we first need to decide what we want to achieve. What does a better society look like? What are the distinguishing features that separate a better society from a worse one? What features need to be compromised or traded off, and where are the optimal trade-offs to be found? (A classic example is a trade-off between freedom and security, which apparently are antithetical to each other).

What, in short, are we trying to achieve?

A slightly different form of the question I have repeatedly asked, what is the purpose of the economy?

The only answer to this question I have received from a neoliberal here is that the economy has no purpose. Which is a ridiculous response, the same as saying that there is no reason for the economy to exist.

The purpose of the economy is to provide for the members of the society, subsistence, shelter, health care, clothing, etc, and it should do it in a way that is stable and sustainable, where the economy renews itself by educating the children and maintaining and improving the infrastructure.

The requirements for stability and sustainability would be best met by making sure that the rewards of the economy are fairly distributed to the members of the society, not necessarily in equal parts, but enough to each that the vast majority are invested in the success of the economy.

We are a long way from this in the US where the economy is largely working for the already rich and the professional class.

We have unprecedented income inequality because we are operating our economy under the libertarian delusion illusion that we have a self-regulating free market including a labor market that pays workers what they are worth. That government is the problem, not the solution.

Absolutely none of this is true. Wages are not largely set by the demand for labor for the vast majority of workers who aren't new hires, who continue to work for the same company. Their wages are determined by the companies and the workers' relative negotiating strength. Absent collective bargaining provided by a union the companies have by far the stronger negotiating strength. Especially when the companies force their workers to compete with low wage countries like China and India while the companies themselves operate in a market with reduced competition from corporate consolidation.

And the pandemic re-enforces the need we have not only for the government in general but for a strong and competent government. Which obviously is not one formed by conservatives with libertarian principles.
 
Really the only thing we have to do to achieve well being for all humans is to genuinely want that for all humans. Poverty is not essential for others to have enough or for some stupid idea of "balance." Even billionaires do better if everyone else does better. It's really just what's in our heads that prevents a better world for everyone, and too many people are too in love with their belief in "deserving" and other such ignorant, inhumane irrelevancies.

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvskMHn0sqQ[/YOUTUBE]
 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S

And federal taxes aren't about raising money; They are about destroying excess money created by government spending that would otherwise be inflationary.

Two sides of the same coin.

No, because (as you snipped when quoting me):

As spending preceeds taxation, rather than following it, there's no problem 'raising' that money - if it's in circulation, you can tax it out (and if it's not, you don't need to, because money that's not circulating isn't adding to inflation).

Ignoring the bits of counterarguments which you have trouble refuting is a great way to feel like you are right; But it's a shithouse way to actually BE right.
 
It didn't work then, it won't work now. Note that chart I just posted showing the tax take that resulted.
Your chart uses the data embodies all the tax loopholes in effect. There is no reason to assume that any progressive tax schedule enacted now would have the same loopholes. So your chart is truly irrelevant.
 
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S

And federal taxes aren't about raising money; They are about destroying excess money created by government spending that would otherwise be inflationary.

Two sides of the same coin.

No, because (as you snipped when quoting me):

As spending preceeds taxation, rather than following it, there's no problem 'raising' that money - if it's in circulation, you can tax it out (and if it's not, you don't need to, because money that's not circulating isn't adding to inflation).

Ignoring the bits of counterarguments which you have trouble refuting is a great way to feel like you are right; But it's a shithouse way to actually BE right.

I ignored it because it wasn't relevant to my point--even big changes in the tax code don't have that big an effect on tax take as a percent of GDP. The left keeps citing the supposed glory years of 90%+ tax rates--but note that that didn't produce much effect.
 
No, because (as you snipped when quoting me):

As spending preceeds taxation, rather than following it, there's no problem 'raising' that money - if it's in circulation, you can tax it out (and if it's not, you don't need to, because money that's not circulating isn't adding to inflation).

Ignoring the bits of counterarguments which you have trouble refuting is a great way to feel like you are right; But it's a shithouse way to actually BE right.

I ignored it because it wasn't relevant to my point--even big changes in the tax code don't have that big an effect on tax take as a percent of GDP. The left keeps citing the supposed glory years of 90%+ tax rates--but note that that didn't produce much effect.

You appear to be assuming constant (or near constant) GDP.

Is that a reasonable assumption? Would it be a reasonable assumption in the event that a UBI were introduced? The answer may surprise you...
 
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