Will China Invade Taiwan?

[bilby]

Angra Mainyu, destroying GPS is an act of War against US and really the whole World.

And at this point it's pointless anyway, because they would have to destroy russian and EU system as well, They can ask Russia to turn it off of course. Taiwan is not worth nuclear war. China has no way get it back without US willingly letting it happen.

I think jamming/spoofing/temporarily blinding GPS is more likely as long as the US stays out of the war (though I wouldn't rule out taking them out and attacking the US by surprise). But China attacks Taiwan but not the US and the US fights back, I'm pretty sure GPS and generally US satellites would be targeted with many missiles.

(and yes, they would have to block the EU system, or destroy their satellites too; I think Russia would probably turn it off as you suggest).

As for nuclear war, I do not think that the US would respond with nuclear weapons to a conventional attack by China (probably).

The GPS signal strength at the Earth's surface is pretty weak (the signal is broadcast at a power of about 45W, and the minimum range to a satellite directly overhead is in the order of 20 000km). Jamming it locally shouldn't pose a big technical challenge for any military force. Physically damaging the satellites would be expensive, difficult, inviting of retaliation, and (most importantly) unnecessary.

 

[barbos]

The GPS signal strength at the Earth's surface is pretty weak (the signal is broadcast at a power of about 45W, and the minimum range to a satellite directly overhead is in the order of 20 000km). Jamming it locally shouldn't pose a big technical challenge for any military force.

These numbers are misleading and jamming is not that easy.
GPS signal is spread spectrum and is already being jammed by natural noise. That is GPS signal is below noise level. Nevertheless it works, because it's spread spectrum. Also as a result of this design, ordinary receivers are easily jammable because they have low dynamic range.
Millitary handheld receivers most certainly have higher dynamic range. Also large vehicles (aircrafts, ships, cars) can have directional/phase antennas, good luck jamming these. Armies who rely on jamming are for nasty surprise.
US may have separate GPS receivers or even higher power level/different band/modulation in GPS sats for real war (that is with China or Russia) I mean, we know they actually have military signal now, it's just they may have another one which is not turned on yet.

And shooting satellites down is pretty much a prelude to a Nuclear War.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Angra Mainyu, destroying GPS is an act of War against US and really the whole World.

And at this point it's pointless anyway, because they would have to destroy russian and EU system as well, They can ask Russia to turn it off of course. Taiwan is not worth nuclear war. China has no way get it back without US willingly letting it happen.

I think jamming/spoofing/temporarily blinding GPS is more likely as long as the US stays out of the war (though I wouldn't rule out taking them out and attacking the US by surprise). But China attacks Taiwan but not the US and the US fights back, I'm pretty sure GPS and generally US satellites would be targeted with many missiles.

(and yes, they would have to block the EU system, or destroy their satellites too; I think Russia would probably turn it off as you suggest).

As for nuclear war, I do not think that the US would respond with nuclear weapons to a conventional attack by China (probably).

The GPS signal strength at the Earth's surface is pretty weak (the signal is broadcast at a power of about 45W, and the minimum range to a satellite directly overhead is in the order of 20 000km). Jamming it locally shouldn't pose a big technical challenge for any military force. Physically damaging the satellites would be expensive, difficult, inviting of retaliation, and (most importantly) unnecessary.

Alright, then they'll just jam it.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

The GPS signal strength at the Earth's surface is pretty weak (the signal is broadcast at a power of about 45W, and the minimum range to a satellite directly overhead is in the order of 20 000km). Jamming it locally shouldn't pose a big technical challenge for any military force.

These numbers are misleading and jamming is not that easy.
GPS signal is spread spectrum and is already being jammed by natural noise. That is GPS signal is below noise level. Nevertheless it works, because it's spread spectrum. Also as a result of this design, ordinary receivers are easily jammable because they have low dynamic range.
Millitary handheld receivers most certainly have higher dynamic range. Also large vehicles (aircrafts, ships, cars) can have directional/phase antennas, good luck jamming these. Armies who rely on jamming are for nasty surprise.
US may have separate GPS receivers or even higher power level/different band/modulation in GPS sats for real war (that is with China or Russia) I mean, we know they actually have military signal now, it's just they may have another one which is not turned on yet.

And shooting satellites down is pretty much a prelude to a Nuclear War.

Okay, then they might not jam it. But I do not believe the US would respond with nuclear weapons if the attack does not use them.

 

[barbos]

By the way, I just recalled that new GPS sats actually have capability to increase power in selected regions.
So, jamming won't be easy.

 

[none]

By the way, I just recalled that new GPS sats actually have capability to increase power in selected regions.
So, that won't be easy.

sub-centimeter?

 

[barbos]

I hate giving Chinese President ideas but the only way to get Taiwan is do it slowly in very small steps by pushing and pushing their Navy around Taiwan. Of course Taiwan could simply at certain point start a war with China. But that's all I have. it's all up to US, as long as US is strong and behind Taiwan it's not gonna happen.

 

[barbos]

By the way, I just recalled that new GPS sats actually have capability to increase power in selected regions.
So, that won't be easy.

sub-centimeter?

What do you mean?

 

[none]

I hate giving Chinese President ideas but the only way to get Taiwan is do it slowly in very small steps by pushing and pushing their Navy around Taiwan. Of course Taiwan could simply at certain point start a war with China. But that's all I have. it's all up to US, as long as US is strong and behind Taiwan it's not gonna happen.

my Samsung agrees.

 

[funinspace]

Ah, like the US didn't stay neutral in the Ukraine? It is really hard to say IMPOV what the US would do, as the military risks are very high. This is not some sort of Iraq dust up. This would be real war with real casualties. And if the US directly went into combat against Chinese warplanes, where does the battle lines stop? Just around Taiwan? Does it bleed to the Chinese mainland? Does China leave SK alone? Even in the Vietnam war we left China alone. This is in their back yard, and much more personal than just fucking with the US over Vietnam...

The US did not have an agreement to defend Ukraine, as it does Taiwan, it seems to me.

If we (the US) have some sort of defense agreement/pact with Taiwan, I'd like to see evidence of it...cuz that would be news to me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-... the context of Cold,the Chinese Civil War on

The Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty, formally Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States of America and the Republic of China, was a defense pact between the United States of America and the Republic of China effective from 1955 to 1980.
<snip>
Although the treaty had no time limit, Article 10 of the treaty stipulated that either party can terminate the treaty one year after notifying the other party. Accordingly, the treaty came to an end on January 1st, 1980, one year after the United States established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China on January 1st, 1979.

Shortly after the United States' recognition of the People's Republic of China, the U.S. Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act. Some of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty's content survives in the Act; for example the definition of "Taiwan". It falls short of promising Taiwan direct military assistance in case of an invasion, however

As far as the discussion on jamming GPS goes...that is kind of over the top IMPOV. Taiwan doesn't have ground launched Harpoons, and won't until 2024 at this point. Even if they had a few (a la Macgyver magic), China does have doppler radar on their AWACs to mitigate the issue. Taiwan's air launched Harpoon missiles will be destroyed or useless within 48 hours. So again, this is a whole lot of what ifs, about nothing.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The GPS signal strength at the Earth's surface is pretty weak (the signal is broadcast at a power of about 45W, and the minimum range to a satellite directly overhead is in the order of 20 000km). Jamming it locally shouldn't pose a big technical challenge for any military force.

These numbers are misleading and jamming is not that easy.
GPS signal is spread spectrum and is already being jammed by natural noise. That is GPS signal is below noise level. Nevertheless it works, because it's spread spectrum. Also as a result of this design, ordinary receivers are easily jammable because they have low dynamic range.
Millitary handheld receivers most certainly have higher dynamic range. Also large vehicles (aircrafts, ships, cars) can have directional/phase antennas, good luck jamming these. Armies who rely on jamming are for nasty surprise.
US may have separate GPS receivers or even higher power level/different band/modulation in GPS sats for real war (that is with China or Russia) I mean, we know they actually have military signal now, it's just they may have another one which is not turned on yet.

And shooting satellites down is pretty much a prelude to a Nuclear War.

This. GPS is easy to jam if you are overhead. Otherwise a directional antenna will defeat your jammer.

And note that jammers make juicy targets for missiles set to home on jamming. You really want to operate a jammer aircraft in the engagement envelope of a Patriot battery??? They won't need to light up their radar to engage so you have no warning until the missile lifts off and you have to find the launch vehicle, you can't just flip an antiradiation missile at it.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

If we (the US) have some sort of defense agreement/pact with Taiwan, I'd like to see evidence of it...cuz that would be news to me.

It seems to me there is some kind of a defense agreement, but not a strong one (see for example https://www.lawfareblog.com/taiwans-us-defense-guarantee-not-strong-it-isnt-weak-either ). At any rate, there seems to be more here than it the case of Ukraine.

As far as the discussion on jamming GPS goes...that is kind of over the top IMPOV. Taiwan doesn't have ground launched Harpoons, and won't until 2024 at this point. Even if they had a few (a la Macgyver magic), China does have doppler radar on their AWACs to mitigate the issue. Taiwan's air launched Harpoon missiles will be destroyed or useless within 48 hours. So again, this is a whole lot of what ifs, about nothing.

As I mentioned, I think a Chinese attack is probably in the second half of this decade, which begins in 2026, so the ground-based Harpoons are probably in. Additionally, they have submarine-launched Harpoons, which probably will be operational for longer - though as I argued, China will deploy ships, planes and drones with advanced anti-submarine capabilities to protect the Type 75 if they go for an invasion instead of blockade first.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

The GPS signal strength at the Earth's surface is pretty weak (the signal is broadcast at a power of about 45W, and the minimum range to a satellite directly overhead is in the order of 20 000km). Jamming it locally shouldn't pose a big technical challenge for any military force.

These numbers are misleading and jamming is not that easy.
GPS signal is spread spectrum and is already being jammed by natural noise. That is GPS signal is below noise level. Nevertheless it works, because it's spread spectrum. Also as a result of this design, ordinary receivers are easily jammable because they have low dynamic range.
Millitary handheld receivers most certainly have higher dynamic range. Also large vehicles (aircrafts, ships, cars) can have directional/phase antennas, good luck jamming these. Armies who rely on jamming are for nasty surprise.
US may have separate GPS receivers or even higher power level/different band/modulation in GPS sats for real war (that is with China or Russia) I mean, we know they actually have military signal now, it's just they may have another one which is not turned on yet.

And shooting satellites down is pretty much a prelude to a Nuclear War.

This. GPS is easy to jam if you are overhead. Otherwise a directional antenna will defeat your jammer.

And note that jammers make juicy targets for missiles set to home on jamming. You really want to operate a jammer aircraft in the engagement envelope of a Patriot battery??? They won't need to light up their radar to engage so you have no warning until the missile lifts off and you have to find the launch vehicle, you can't just flip an antiradiation missile at it.

China can do as follows (for example; there are several options).

First, destroy Patriot batteries and any similar hardware or relevant anti-aircraft capability with a massive missile attack.

Second, deploy like a gazillion large drones to do the jamming. If a drone gets targeted and destroyed, go after whatever targeted and destroyed it, and have plenty of backup drones.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

I hate giving Chinese President ideas but the only way to get Taiwan is do it slowly in very small steps by pushing and pushing their Navy around Taiwan.

That would be a strategy for the CPC if they were playing the very long game, looking beyond the current chairman. They did that before. Now it seems to me it's Xi Jinping playing a shorter game, though still longer than a US POTUS can manage.

 

[barbos]

And note that jammers make juicy targets for missiles set to home on jamming. You really want to operate a jammer aircraft in the engagement envelope of a Patriot battery??? They won't need to light up their radar to engage so you have no warning until the missile lifts off and you have to find the launch vehicle, you can't just flip an antiradiation missile at it.

Jammer could be on geostantionary orbit. Not easy to shoot.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Nice. China is now threatening to nuke Japan if it aides Taiwan:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/...t/news-story/d9af14dc6b90628082e79ab4c77629e1

China is a greatest threat to peace today. They are willing to destroy the planet in order to safe face.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Nice. China is now threatening to nuke Japan if it aides Taiwan:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/...t/news-story/d9af14dc6b90628082e79ab4c77629e1

China is a greatest threat to peace today. They are willing to destroy the planet in order to safe face.

Sure. But how isn't this just a war of words? China is testing Japanese conviction to stay allied to USA in defence of Taiwan. Japan said that it is. End of story, start of words.

Yes, China is the biggest threat to world peace right now. Because it's got the biggest army. That's a fixable problem.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Nice. China is now threatening to nuke Japan if it aides Taiwan:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/...t/news-story/d9af14dc6b90628082e79ab4c77629e1

China is a greatest threat to peace today. They are willing to destroy the planet in order to safe face.

China seems rather sensitive about any supportive comment toward Taiwan. There always seems to be an outsized response. This and China’s actions against their own tech companies (Didi IPO) works to create a negative investment atmosphere in China.
A capitalist economic system operating within an authoritarian government. This will likely reach an inflection point resulting in a severe economic downturn for China or China lashing out militarily. I suppose it is the goal of US and friends to shoot for the former.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Nice. China is now threatening to nuke Japan if it aides Taiwan:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/...t/news-story/d9af14dc6b90628082e79ab4c77629e1

China is a greatest threat to peace today. They are willing to destroy the planet in order to safe face.

China seems rather sensitive about any supportive comment toward Taiwan. There always seems to be an outsized response. This and China’s actions against their own tech companies (Didi IPO) works to create a negative investment atmosphere in China.
A capitalist economic system operating within an authoritarian government. This will likely reach an inflection point resulting in a severe economic downturn for China or China lashing out militarily. I suppose it is the goal of US and friends to shoot for the former.

It's not good for the US and the world to have China go into a severe economic downturn. But certainly, it's much better for world to slow down China's expansion plans via hurting their economy than confronting China militarily.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Nice. China is now threatening to nuke Japan if it aides Taiwan:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/...t/news-story/d9af14dc6b90628082e79ab4c77629e1

China is a greatest threat to peace today. They are willing to destroy the planet in order to safe face.

China seems rather sensitive about any supportive comment toward Taiwan. There always seems to be an outsized response. This and China’s actions against their own tech companies (Didi IPO) works to create a negative investment atmosphere in China.
A capitalist economic system operating within an authoritarian government. This will likely reach an inflection point resulting in a severe economic downturn for China or China lashing out militarily. I suppose it is the goal of US and friends to shoot for the former.

It's not good for the US and the world to have China go into a severe economic downturn. But certainly, it's much better for world to slow down China's expansion plans via hurting their economy than confronting China militarily.

I think it works like this.

As long as the communist party sits secure in China and trade keeps working out for China it'll be business as usual. No invasion of Taiwan. Money keeps flowing. The Chinese are happy. Chinese happiness is what this is all about. The moment the Chinese people stop being happy, the government position gets precarious. That's when they might go to war in the tried and tested method of dictators distracting their unhappy population with an external enemy.

There's not going to be a war right now. That might change rapidly. Who knows how much China groans and creaks within. But as it looks now, it's pretty cool.