A thought on Afghanistan

[TomC]

I'm pretty sure ISIS was as much a surprise to Ayman al-Zawahiri and Osama Bin-Laden as everybody else.

I doubt this is true.

I knew some Muslims here in southern Indiana who predicted ISIS before the invasion. Along with a lot of other things that happened during the invasion. The fact that a small batch of people from Indiana University could so accurately predict the results of the invasion left me believing that the Bush II administration and similar war mongers knew full well what would happen.

Makes their lies even more insidious and horrible.
Tom

 

[Keith&Co.]

left me believing that the Bush II administration and similar war mongers knew full well what would happen.

Unlikely. This requires that they:
1. Identify experts in the needed fields
2. Reveal plans to experts
3. Give experts time to evaluate plans
4. Listen to experts' brief on the probable outcomes
5. Review the full report after the expert leaves
6. Discuss
7. Adjust expectations accordingly and/or lie as necessary

I think it's far more likely, they
1. Identify desired goals
2. Identify preferred actions to reach those goals
3. Dictate requirements to designated experts
4. Experts produce reports coincidentally saying 'If we do Step 2, we'll get Step 1'
5. Step 2 already in progress
6. Shit.
7. Shit. Shit. Shit. That wasn't supposed to happen.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

left me believing that the Bush II administration and similar war mongers knew full well what would happen.

Unlikely. This requires that they:
1. Identify experts in the needed fields
2. Reveal plans to experts
3. Give experts time to evaluate plans
4. Listen to experts' brief on the probable outcomes
5. Review the full report after the expert leaves
6. Discuss
7. Adjust expectations accordingly and/or lie as necessary

I think it's far more likely, they
1. Identify desired goals
2. Identify preferred actions to reach those goals
3. Dictate requirements to designated experts
4. Experts produce reports coincidentally saying 'If we do Step 2, we'll get Step 1'
5. Step 2 already in progress
6. Shit.
7. Shit. Shit. Shit. That wasn't supposed to happen.

From what has been written, the problem with the Neocons is just like the issue with Trump supporters. They live in a bubble and only saw things through their worldview. Afghanistan would be a year, Iraq a year, piece of cake, you just capture the flag and that's that. There is a reason Neocons were against nation building. They sucked at it, they didn't understand it.

 

[TomC]

left me believing that the Bush II administration and similar war mongers knew full well what would happen.

Unlikely. This requires that they:
1. Identify experts in the needed fields
2. Reveal plans to experts
3. Give experts time to evaluate plans
4. Listen to experts' brief on the probable outcomes
5. Review the full report after the expert leaves
6. Discuss
7. Adjust expectations accordingly and/or lie as necessary

I think it's far more likely, they
1. Identify desired goals
2. Identify preferred actions to reach those goals
3. Dictate requirements to designated experts
4. Experts produce reports coincidentally saying 'If we do Step 2, we'll get Step 1'
5. Step 2 already in progress
6. Shit.
7. Shit. Shit. Shit. That wasn't supposed to happen.

You clipped of a good deal of my post.

Maybe I'll start a thread about the Muslims who accurately predicted the outcomes of the invasion. Probably not, since I'm kinda lazy and already catch flak around here for having unpopular opinions.

I firmly believe that the Bush II administration wasn't as ill-informed as they pretended to be. They were vicious and greedy and didn't care about all the death and destruction their "crusade" would cause. They didn't even care about how much damage it would do to American security.
They wanted control of the Gulf oilfields no matter what else happened.
Tom

 

[Keith&Co.]

I firmly believe that the Bush II administration wasn't as ill-informed as they pretended to be.

I don't. I don't think they cared. The GOP has never really been interested in reality. Probably best exemplified by C. Everett Koop's resignation. He was directed to produce a report on how Abortion made women suicidal. He couldn't find any credible research that supported the claim. He was told to write the report anyway. He quit instead.
I really think that Bush II et al just skipped over anything outside their immediate desires.

 

[TomC]

I firmly believe that the Bush II administration wasn't as ill-informed as they pretended to be.

I don't. I don't think they cared. The GOP has never really been interested in reality. Probably best exemplified by C. Everett Koop's resignation. He was directed to produce a report on how Abortion made women suicidal. He couldn't find any credible research that supported the claim. He was told to write the report anyway. He quit instead.
I really think that Bush II et al just skipped over anything outside their immediate desires.

Leaving out the abortion derailment, that's pretty much what I said. But you started with "I don't."

Perhaps our differences are about whether the Bush administration was supported by the American people as a whole? I think it was.

If it wasn't that, I don't know what your post was about.
Tom

 

[Keith&Co.]

If it wasn't that, I don't know what your post was about.

You're saying the information was available, so the administration must have known.
I'm saying there was an air gap between the knowledge and the administration. They were not open to such information as it was neither desired nor required for their operational plan.

 

[TomC]

If it wasn't that, I don't know what your post was about.

You're saying the information was available, so the administration must have known.
I'm saying there was an air gap between the knowledge and the administration. They were not open to such information as it was neither desired nor required for their operational plan.

I'm saying that the Bush administration had the information available to them.

The "air gap" you are referring to is entirely the result of Faith. Believing things that you wish were true, even though the evidence against is strong.

I guess when you combine Christian Faith with avarice, greed for wealth and power, you get the last few centuries of history. From popes to presidents, there's always another crusade in the Christian world just waiting to happen...
Tom

 

[DrZoidberg]

I'm pretty sure ISIS was as much a surprise to Ayman al-Zawahiri and Osama Bin-Laden as everybody else.

I doubt this is true.

I knew some Muslims here in southern Indiana who predicted ISIS before the invasion. Along with a lot of other things that happened during the invasion. The fact that a small batch of people from Indiana University could so accurately predict the results of the invasion left me believing that the Bush II administration and similar war mongers knew full well what would happen.

Makes their lies even more insidious and horrible.
Tom

Are you sure they weren't talking about Syria specifically? I have a friend who has worked in most countries in the Middle-East. When the Arab spring happened his only comment was that he hoped democracy wouldn't come to Syria as it would lead to the rise of an aggressive Caliphate. He was so sure and so accurate that I doubt he was the only one with that opinion. He didn't say that about any other country in the Middle East.

But then again, nobody could predict the Arab spring. That was pretty random

 

[TomC]

Are you sure they weren't talking about Syria specifically?

Yes.
I'm absolutely sure they weren't talking about Syria.

Syria wasn't even much of a talking point 20 years ago.
Tom

 

[RVonse]

Just imagine the corrupt mess the US supported government in Afghanistan must have been if the Afghani's prefer the Taleban over democracy. It's Vietnam all over again. The US population caring more about labels than reality. And then when the band-aid is ripped off reality hits them in the face with a vengeance.

Failed state building!

Its not really about Bush's war on terror or failed state building though.

The US exit of Afghanistan is of huge benefit to China and their silk road initiative through the middle east. Of all the world players who benefit the most, it is China that wanted this. And Biden really really likes China....mostly due to his personal financial connections the media will not cover. But the simplest explanation is always the best explanation.

 

[TomC]

Just imagine the corrupt mess the US supported government in Afghanistan must have been if the Afghani's prefer the Taleban over democracy. It's Vietnam all over again. The US population caring more about labels than reality. And then when the band-aid is ripped off reality hits them in the face with a vengeance.

Failed state building!

Its not really about Bush's war on terror or failed state building though.

The US exit of Afghanistan is of huge benefit to China and their silk road initiative through the middle east. Of all the world players who benefit the most, it is China that wanted this. And Biden really really likes China....mostly due to his personal financial connections the media will not cover. But the simplest explanation is always the best explanation.

You really think that Biden has more financial ties to foreign governments than Trump?

I can't imagine why, other than your Faith in Trump.
Tom

 

[RVonse]

Just imagine the corrupt mess the US supported government in Afghanistan must have been if the Afghani's prefer the Taleban over democracy. It's Vietnam all over again. The US population caring more about labels than reality. And then when the band-aid is ripped off reality hits them in the face with a vengeance.

Failed state building!

Its not really about Bush's war on terror or failed state building though.

The US exit of Afghanistan is of huge benefit to China and their silk road initiative through the middle east. Of all the world players who benefit the most, it is China that wanted this. And Biden really really likes China....mostly due to his personal financial connections the media will not cover. But the simplest explanation is always the best explanation.

You really think that Biden has more financial ties to foreign governments than Trump?

Tom

Yes. Furthermore his corruption spans a much longer history than Trump's short political career.

You can not possibly blame Trump for helping China into the WTO and the outsourcing of the industrial base which created rust belt America. All that corruption happened during Biden's senate leadership many years ago. Trump was not even in government during those years.

Biden has been very successful helping some people though....just not Americans or Afghans.

 

[TomC]

Yes. Furthermore his corruption spans a much longer history than Trump's short political career.

Yes I can.

Trump has been rich, deceitful, and connected for decades.

Yes I definitely can blame him for what's happened in the last 50 years. He wasn't even an elected official, he could lie his ass off and not expect any repercussions. When a few hit, he could buy his way out of it.

Tom

 

[RVonse]

Yes. Furthermore his corruption spans a much longer history than Trump's short political career.

Yes I can.

Trump has been rich, deceitful, and connected for decades.

Yes I definitely can blame him for what's happened in the last 50 years. He wasn't even an elected official, he could lie his ass off and not expect any repercussions. When a few hit, he could buy his way out of it.

Tom

But if you are not in government, you technically have no direct power over the management of this country. At best, Trump could only lobby or persuade someone else in power. Similar to Jeff Bezos today, Trump would have no direct link to congress like Biden did.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The white supremacist terrorism is on a smaller scale, but there's enough of it that it kills more.

They'd have to do a lot of killing to make up for 9/11 alone, and they'd have to kill a 200,000 to make up for 9/11 on a per-capita basis. I have not seen anything even approaching these numbers.
This claim was always a political one, not factual. It's "white people bad, m'kay" type of thing so popular in certain circles these days.

The claim didn't involve per capita and we don't know the capita to be per, anyway.

Covid-19 has killed at least 200 times (20,000 percent) more people in the US than the Muslim terrorists killed in 2001, in part due to the criminal negligence and outright dishonesty of our former Christian president. And that number continues to grow.

Elixir made a specific claim that Christians are responsible for "more and worse" terrorism than his Islamists. Conflating that with pandemics is not even just shifting goalposts, it's carrying them right out of the stadium!

His Flatulence deliberately ignored Covid thinking it was mainly a blue state problem. That's a form of terrorism.

 

[Elixir]

Tom,
Do you know of anyone - ANYONE - who ever paid a price for underestimating what Bushbaby was aware of?

 

[Gospel]

Yes. Furthermore his corruption spans a much longer history than Trump's short political career.

Yes I can.

Trump has been rich, deceitful, and connected for decades.

Yes I definitely can blame him for what's happened in the last 50 years. He wasn't even an elected official, he could lie his ass off and not expect any repercussions. When a few hit, he could buy his way out of it.

Tom

But if you are not in government, you technically have no direct power over the management of this country. At best, Trump could only lobby or persuade someone else in power. Similar to Jeff Bezos today, Trump would have no direct link to congress like Biden did.

What courts decide in Trump's court cases affects laws moving forward. Sometimes I wish Black people set more precedents in court rulings regarding property, taxes, debt, & etc because people like Trump would get away with way less shit.

 

[Patooka]

You really think that Biden has more financial ties to foreign governments than Trump?

Tom

Yes. Furthermore his corruption spans a much longer history than Trump's short political career.

I love how you casually dismiss the decades long well documented non-political history of Trump's corruption. Or that in Trump's short political career (which arguably has spanned for decades) Trump was more bent than a fucking paper clip.

Biden could grift all day, every day from now to the end of his Presidency and still wouldn't reach the levels of depravity Trump accomplished, your bullshit QAnon rhetoric notwithstanding.

 

[Elixir]

his corruption spans a much longer history than Trump's short political career

You know not whereof you speak. There are no credible corruption allegations against Biden. Just the usual conspiracy "theories" ginned up by Q-ball krazies and their ilk.

I know firsthand that Trump was stiffing small business contractors in 1984.

He has been laundering rubles for decades, (common knowledge, and by his own son's inadvertent admission) dealing with Azerbajan, Saudi Arabia and virtually every other corrupt autocratic regime in the world ever since since he blew the entire $400,000,000 Daddy gave him. Nobody has greater corruption than The Donald. It's incredible corruption. The greatest.