Snowflakes in action: the actual reality of "snowflakes" in the world and the consequences

[Trausti]

The most impactful inheritance is parental genes for behavior and intelligence. The acorn doesn’t fall far from the tree.

This implies that siblings should be nearly alike in behavior.

That siblings differ shows that it is not about shared environment. (Siblings are not clones.) Adoption studies reveal that adopted children resemble the behavior and cognitive traits of their biological parents. Humans are animals, after all.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

You're the doctor in the ER prescribing a seat belt for a broken arm.

An interesting comparison. There would absolutely, with 100% certainty, be less broken arms in the ER if people consistently wore seatbelts. That's why doctors do, in fact, press for people to wear them. By the time bad driving practice becomes an ER problem, it's already too late to make things entirely right; the patient can't unremember the pain of the incident, and it's likely they have sustained at least some conditions or injuries from that accident that they will never entirely heal from. That's why it is now law in most states to wear seatbelts. At the time, a controversial political project that many social conservatives objected to, but the largest lobbies in favor of seatbelt requirements were... wait for it.... doctors and insurers. Because they saw, day in and day out, what the consequences of inaction looked like.

In short, you're the person who is sitting in the ER talking to the guy with a broken arm saying "don't wear a seatbelt man, seatbelts can't fix your arm" as though that had ever been the point of seat belts.

You misunderstand my point.

You're still trying to prescribe a preventative as a treatment.

Reality: Patient in the ER with a broken arm.

SJW treatment: Provide seat belt. When the arm is still broken obviously they need a better seat belt.

Proper treatment: Set broken arm, apply cast.

CRT is to the wider social problem of racism what epidemiology is to medical science, treating the source of the disease rather than waiting for individual symptoms to appear. No CRT theorist says that you shouldn't prosecute individual cases of race-based hate crimes, but if that's all you do, the epidemic will continue to rage. At some point, you have to ask critical questions about why these things are happening, rather than just waiting and being freshly surprised every time a new incident is added to what is obviously a systemic pattern. Symptom-driven medicine is too inefficient to be a meaningful response to a mass heath problem. And maybe we shouldn't be surprised that the very same people tend to have objections to seat belts, vaccines, and responses to systemic discrimination. Long-range planning and prevention just aren't a shared talent for all of us it seems, or if they are (to take a perhaps fairer read), they may be for social conservatives less important than the ideological principle of independence from the idea of government control.

If there's a mass problem, prove it! I see tons and tons of proof there was a problem, but willful blindness to the fact that the evidence points to the past situation and does not prove anything about the current situation.

 

[Trausti]

If there's a mass problem, prove it! I see tons and tons of proof there was a problem, but willful blindness to the fact that the evidence points to the past situation and does not prove anything about the current situation.

No one denies that there were historical wrongs. But it’s not 1915 anymore. It’s like the past 60 years never happened.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

So your solution is to keep the racism?

Loren and I are arguing to end the racism, at least the institutional, systemic racism.

Your solution is to ramp it up.
Tom

Not at all.

It seems to me that you and Loren are interested in just saying: no more racism without actually ending racism.

Especially if it means that white men are no longer at the front of the line to receive all that is good.

No. We are not convinced that there is still a problem that can be addressed by things like affirmative action. We see innocents being harmed and no corresponding good being done.

While I do not like affirmative action in the first place it was probably the best solution at the time--the path of the lesser evil. A lesser evil is still an evil, though, and should not be used any longer than necessary--and it looks like it's being used far past the point where the benefit is worth the harm. At this point it's perpetuating the problem, not solving it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

That won’t be true until black lives do matter.

Who said they don’t?

Everyone who points out that all lives matter—while ensuring that white lives matter more.

You are basing this on a flawed premise. BLM is protesting a fairly small cause of black deaths based on some bad math.

 

[Toni]

Once again, disparate outcomes being presented as proof of discrimination.

Is this like the redlining where it turns out to be socioeconomic, not racial?

This is a hugely common fallacy employed by racists from both ends of the spectrum.
Confusing correlation with causation.
Tom

And then some delight in Ignoring what conditions created the current "socioeconomic" balance, which then feeds racists and their correlation/causation issue "at each end of the spectrum".

It shifted from being explicit to being "Minnesotan" about it. Which is to say, they do stuff that will get the effect while making it very difficult to reveal their behavior as explicitly linked to that goal.

Of course racism created it, I don't see anyone denying that. That doesn't mean you can fix the problem by removing the racism, or that the continued existence of the problem shows the racism is continuing.

You're the doctor in the ER prescribing a seat belt for a broken arm.

So your solution is to keep the racism?

To me that seems like going to the ER for a heart attack and hearing that it can’t be a heart attack because they’re all full up with heart attack patients.

Everyone is trying to evade my point.

Measuring the results of racism is not proof that racism exists now, it's only proof it existed at some point in the past. The eternal reliance on irrelevant "evidence" is pretty much an admission that there isn't a problem now. If there's good evidence of current racism, present it! Make sure to control for socioeconomic factors--something which almost no such research does.

Racism still exists. I'm really sorry that this is so but it is absolutely true that racism still exists. I hear it frequently in my very nice relatively blue state. It's a fact. I believe you believe what you're writing about racism being over but it isn't. I won't argue with you that what you see as irrelevant 'evidence' is in fact, evidence. You seem to be a data driven person but when it comes to data supporting a conclusion you don't believe in, out come the scare quotes. But let's go along with what you're saying: there is no more racism.

But you seem to accept that today, we are still dealing with the negative effects of racism.

So let's frame it this way: Think of the horrors of racism in all of its forms, from acknowledged enslavement of people who were born in Africa and their descendants, to unacknowledged enslavement of Native Americans and Chinese people who were treated as far less than human and very disposable when imported to work on the railways, the interment of Japanese Americans during WWII which was more about racism and a land grab as it was for 'security' reasons. We'll ignore the way that Hispanic peoples, including those who have lived in what is now the US since well before the US existed as the US, and people who 'look' Arabic or Jewish or Muslim or Sikh or (fill in whatever you like) are treated--as illegals, as terrorists, as not possibly living in this nice neighborhood or being able to afford to shop here or having only earned their spot in an elite college or job or whatever because of affirmative action and not because of their own talents, abilities and hard work. We'll pretend that all stopped and doesn't happen any more.

Data demonstrates that populations of people are still suffering from the effects of such 'past' discrimination. These ill effects include greater incidences of some illnesses, of some mental illnesses, illiteracy, joblessness, poverty, homelessness, crime victimization, just for starters.

Those are all problems we, as a society, still must deal with. Failing to deal with these issues creates a tremendous drag on our economy, for one thing. It hampers the ability of our schools to do their best for children not so burdened by legacies of poverty, and 'past' discrimination.

So your solution is to keep the racism?

Loren and I are arguing to end the racism, at least the institutional, systemic racism.

Your solution is to ramp it up.
Tom

Not at all.

It seems to me that you and Loren are interested in just saying: no more racism without actually ending racism.

Especially if it means that white men are no longer at the front of the line to receive all that is good.

No. We are not convinced that there is still a problem that can be addressed by things like affirmative action. We see innocents being harmed and no corresponding good being done.

While I do not like affirmative action in the first place it was probably the best solution at the time--the path of the lesser evil. A lesser evil is still an evil, though, and should not be used any longer than necessary--and it looks like it's being used far past the point where the benefit is worth the harm. At this point it's perpetuating the problem, not solving it.

I don't see any 'innocents being harmed' except that persons of color and sometimes women are assumed to have earned their places in whatever school/job you care to mention because of affirmative action.

There are no benefits you say? I look around me and see a world that looks a lot different than the one I grew up in because now I see teachers and professors and doctors and lawyers and politicians and architects who are not the same white men I always saw and knew to expect in those jobs.

So do my kids. So do all the generations since I was a kid. Unless they do not realize that it is their own racism and lack of imagination that allows them to see that women and persons of color make fine astronauts, doctors, lawyers, judges, professors, business people, politicians, POTUS and Supreme Court Justices.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The only ones making Black life matter less are the anti-police / abolish police folks who gave us the spike in Black murder victims since the summer of Floyd. What, 3000-4000 excess deaths? Black Lives Murdered. Take a bow.

I find it hard to believe that you are serious - attributing excess deaths to the BLM during covid is breathtakingly ridiculous.

I don't know the numbers but he's right.

Cities with substantial BLM protests have seen a reduction in proactive actions by the police--and thus a surge in violence causing the black violent death rate to go up. The increase in criminals shooting criminals far exceeds the reduction in police shooting people.

 

[Toni]

That won’t be true until black lives do matter.

Who said they don’t?

Everyone who points out that all lives matter—while ensuring that white lives matter more.

You are basing this on a flawed premise. BLM is protesting a fairly small cause of black deaths based on some bad math.

Oh, bullshit. EVERYONE knows that police are not the biggest cause of the death of black people. But anyone who is willing to look at data can see that police kill too many people, period. Too many of those killed are not armed. Disproportionately, they are not white.

Even if you hate black people, you should want police to do a better job avoiding killing people. A bunch of the people they kill are white. The SAME policy and procedures changes that prevent unarmed black people from being killed by police will do the same for white people. We ALL benefit.

We are ALL harmed when we cannot trust our safety or our communities to the protection of police. We are ALL harmed if police are not trained better to avoid shooting at anyone! ALL of us.

 

[Toni]

The only ones making Black life matter less are the anti-police / abolish police folks who gave us the spike in Black murder victims since the summer of Floyd. What, 3000-4000 excess deaths? Black Lives Murdered. Take a bow.

I find it hard to believe that you are serious - attributing excess deaths to the BLM during covid is breathtakingly ridiculous.

I don't know the numbers but he's right.

Cities with substantial BLM protests have seen a reduction in proactive actions by the police--and thus a surge in violence causing the black violent death rate to go up. The increase in criminals shooting criminals far exceeds the reduction in police shooting people.

So what you and Trausti are saying is that police are exacting revenge upon black people because they resent BLM? By not policing? Or by killing more black people? You are saying that police are not acting professionally?

In any case, the trend of police killing citizens has increased annually since before BLM became so prominent.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police-shootings-database/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2

 

[TomC]

Intergenerational wealth transfer is a huge factor, Possibly the biggest.

I vehemently disagree.

My parents were upper middle class. My mom died recently, I know there's a check out there coming my way. They were frugal people. Doug and I could use a cash infusion right now. But I'm still dreading the arrival of the check. It's like cashing out my parents.
Ew.

My real inheritance I've long since gotten.

My parents were huge on education and committed relationship and self reliance and service and family ties and a raft of stuff that can't be deposited in a bank account. That's my real inheritance.

Yeah, they popped for a lot of tuition. And when I started my business, I knew that no matter how badly it went I wouldn't be homeless. (Having to move back in with them and their advice and rules and such was marginally better than couch surfing.) But what they gave me wasn't the money, it was their culture.

Based on media reports, I believe that my parents gave me more than Ivanka Trump's parents gave her.
Tom

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Oh, we are playing conflate correlation with causation. How about
news events you need to know so far for May 2020:

1. Multiple Car Dealerships are Burglarized
2. Coronavirus Updates
3. Murder Hornets Spotted in the US
4. Coronavirus Updates (2)
5. Coronavirus Updates (3)
6. Shooting in Texas
7. State Department Inspector General Fired
8. Shooting in Louisiana
9. Coronavirus Updates (4)
10. Coronavirus Updates (5)
11. Black Lives Matter Protest

Big USA events in May 2020

And let's not forget the prevalence of firearms that aid in those murdered during the spike.

Thus showing your lack of understanding of the problem.

What he's talking about doesn't show up as a big news event. Most criminal on criminal shootings don't even get mentioned in a large-city newspaper. Around here they only get mentioned if they stray into tourist territory or if a drive-by kills a child or innocent teen. Note that this long predates the virus. A quick search turns up this:

The effects of Black Lives Matter protests

Research shows places with BLM protests from 2014 to 2019 saw a reduction in police homicides but an uptick in murders.

www.vox.com

For 2014 to 2019 BLM protests are associated with about 300 fewer police killings--but 1,000-6,000 increased murders.

So, a ballpark estimate is BLM kills 10x as many as they save.

 

[Jarhyn]

Intergenerational wealth transfer is a huge factor, Possibly the biggest.

I vehemently disagree.

My parents were upper middle class. My mom died recently, I know there's a check out there coming my way. They were frugal people. Doug and I could use a cash infusion right now. But I'm still dreading the arrival of the check. It's like cashing out my parents.
Ew.

My real inheritance I've long since gotten.

My parents were huge on education and committed relationship and self reliance and service and family ties and a raft of stuff that can't be deposited in a bank account. That's my real inheritance.

Yeah, they popped for a lot of tuition. And when I started my business, I knew that no matter how badly it went I wouldn't be homeless. (Having to move back in with them and their advice and rules and such was marginally better than couch surfing.) But what they gave me wasn't the money, it was their culture.

Based on media reports, I believe that my parents gave me more than Ivanka Trump's parents gave her.
Tom

Sounds like a lot of intergenerational transfer of wealth. Just because it doesn't happen at the end doesn't mean it doesn't happen.

These are the vector of force that kept you out of the gutter and this has been broken, shattered, and destroyed among populations of black Americans across generations.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

If the fact that the real median household income for blacks has been half that of the real median household income for non-Hispanic whites for at least the past six decades is not due to racism, what is it due to? Something wrong with blacks?

Correlation does not prove causation!

The top line on that chart has no apparent racial cause but has obvious cultural causes. Why do you assume the other lines must be racially caused?

 

[Elixir]

Sounds like a lot of intergenerational transfer of wealth. Just because it doesn't happen at the end doesn't mean it doesn't happen.

And just because it didn't come in cash doesn't mean it didn't happen either.

 

[Elixir]

Correlation does not prove causation!

Unresponsive. The real median household income for blacks has been half that of the real median household income for non-Hispanic whites for at least the past six decades. Why?
(HINT: not because correlation doesn't prove causation)

 

[Trausti]

Sounds like a lot of intergenerational transfer of wealth. Just because it doesn't happen at the end doesn't mean it doesn't happen.

And just because it didn't come in cash doesn't mean it didn't happen either.

Every parent can provide their children with a loving home.

 

[laughing dog]

Oh, we are playing conflate correlation with causation. How about
news events you need to know so far for May 2020:

1. Multiple Car Dealerships are Burglarized
2. Coronavirus Updates
3. Murder Hornets Spotted in the US
4. Coronavirus Updates (2)
5. Coronavirus Updates (3)
6. Shooting in Texas
7. State Department Inspector General Fired
8. Shooting in Louisiana
9. Coronavirus Updates (4)
10. Coronavirus Updates (5)
11. Black Lives Matter Protest

Big USA events in May 2020

And let's not forget the prevalence of firearms that aid in those murdered during the spike.

Thus showing your lack of understanding of the problem.

What he's talking about doesn't show up as a big news event. Most criminal on criminal shootings don't even get mentioned in a large-city newspaper. Around here they only get mentioned if they stray into tourist territory or if a drive-by kills a child or innocent teen. Note that this long predates the virus. A quick search turns up this:

The effects of Black Lives Matter protests

Research shows places with BLM protests from 2014 to 2019 saw a reduction in police homicides but an uptick in murders.

www.vox.com

For 2014 to 2019 BLM protests are associated with about 300 fewer police killings--but 1,000-6,000 increased murders.

So, a ballpark estimate is BLM kills 10x as many as they save.

I understand the difference between correlation and causation.

I note that your own link states

While Campbell’s research does not encompass the events of summer 2020, George Floyd’s killing

which means it literally does not support the Trausti's claim.

I understand the difference between correlation and causation.
Again, from your own link

From 2014 to 2019, Campbell tracked more than 1,600 BLM protests across the country, largely in bigger cities, with nearly 350,000 protesters. His main finding is a 15 to 20 percent reduction in lethal use of force by police officers — roughly 300 fewer police homicides — in census places that saw BLM protests.

Campbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests.

Finally, that study is basically and "event" study - it looks for possible disparate effects by comparing before an event and after the event.
So, why do you think that this disparate effects proves anything when you consistently deny that disparate effects cannot prove discrimination?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

So long as non-whites get advantages in school their credentials will be considered suspect. This is simply a sensible reaction to the situation and not racism. It can only be solved by making school an equal competition.

And yet, white men’s credentials were never considered suspect. For all those years when they were getting unfair advantages. It wasn’t a “sensible reaction” to wonder why only white men were getting into colleges, and whether they were worthy recipients of ther degrees.

It's pretty hard for the majority to be getting unjust credentials. That would simply water down the credential, not make any particular person with it suspect. I note that you didn't address my point about the boss' nephew--different trigger but the same result.

But as has been pointed out, it is clear that the field is still not level, and worthy minority students still have a hard time getting in,, for a variety of systemic reasons. And I know you don’t see it, that you look at the data and conclude that all the bootstraps are equal and no new discrimination is happening anywhere. But wow, the data is so clear.

The data is about as clear as the concrete beneath me. You continue to chant your disparate impact means discrimination mantra--how is the system rigged to benefit Asians?? The evidence says they are discriminated against even now (higher thresholds for admissions), yet they keep coming out on top. Where are the laws rigged to benefit Asians?

And it is so depressing watching you and others proclaim that all discriimination is over and we have nothing to fix. While letting all the white men own their credentials, and denying that to minorities.

Don't blame us, blame yourself. If you didn't push diversity admits and diversity hires the credentials would not be suspect in the first place. You're playing monday morning quarterback--think you can change one thing without there being secondary effects.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Can anyone even imagine a black man or woman running for President with the credentials of Donald Trump?

His Flatulence didn't run on credentials in the first place, the comparison is meaningless.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Now, your explanation about the police not doing their jobs is pretty interesting. Basically, you are saying the police are unprofessional. Frankly, I don't buy what you are selling. I suspect if you thought about what you actual wrote, neither do you.

I see he found the same article I did in looking for data.

The police are simply reacting to the situation they are in. Management is showing them that they'll be thrown under the bus to appease BLM, that being proactive is not desired. Of course they take a far more passive stance!