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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

T.G.G. Moogly said:
Copernicus said:
Meanwhile, the US is now pulling its military advisors out and most of its embassy staff. If Putin intends to bluff, he is spending an awful lot of money and building up incredible expectations to do it. Zelensky was trying to play down the feeling that Russia was about to invade, but I think that he has stopped that now.
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What would a mob boss do? Putin runs Russia like a mob boss but I guess it depends on the mob boss.
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I see you have been listening to Kasparov :)
My advice - don't
T.G.G. Moogly said:
Earlier I said that Putin is no dummy but neither would anyone call him intellectual. I'm not sure he's in the same league as Khrushchev. The line seems to be that he senses a Europe and an America divided against themselves and is milking the situation for all he can get. I really don't think he expected that his demands about Ukraine and NATO would be so immediately rejected, much like Hitler never thought Britain and France would go to was over Poland.

And that's really the big question. Does the Putinator know what he's signing up for? Does he realize that he cannot have Ukraine like he had the Crimea? Unless he's totally daff an invasion would be like Pearl Harbor, the long term cost something he can neither sustain nor afford. I'd like to be a fly on the wall when Xi is in the room too. What is Xi telling him?
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Bidenator is passing inaccurate information to you.
 
SLD said:
Yeah, I read that comment and was stunned. Putin’s misogyny is well known. Any US politician saying that would be crucified. Except for his puppet, tRump.
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Do you know what us more stunning? The fact that nobody in Russia/Ukraine saw any hints of misogyny in that saying. That until it was translated to english and Psaki started fuming about it.
 
barbos said:
SLD said:
Yeah, I read that comment and was stunned. Putin’s misogyny is well known. Any US politician saying that would be crucified. Except for his puppet, tRump.
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Do you know what us more stunning? The fact that nobody in Russia/Ukraine saw any hints of misogyny in that saying. That until it was translated to english and Psaki started fuming about it.
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Plenty of people in Russia drew the same conclusion--likening Ukraine to a rape victim. The quote was accurate, as I translated it, and Putin's misogyny relates to the new law he passed to make it harder for women to defend themselves in the courts against domestic abuse.
 
ZiprHead said:
I wonder how you know this?
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Because I have access to accurate information.
Ukrainian government itself tried to study opinions of their own army.
And it's not good.
All that MSM talk about how much Ukrainian army improved since 2014 is BS.
Ukrainian army hate Russia, but they hate ukrainian government too. And it should not be surprising considering salaries they get.
 
ZiprHead said:
Provided by the Russian government?
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Ukrainian government. You see, Ukraine does have a freedom of the press. Unfortunately for you it is in ukrainian and ...... russian still.
Plus don't forget, I can and speak to actual ukrainians.
 
barbos said:
ZiprHead said:
Provided by the Russian government?
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Ukrainian government. You see, Ukraine does have a freedom of the press. Unfortunately for you it is in ukrainian and ...... russian still.
Plus don't forget, I can and speak to actual ukrainians.
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So what Ukrainians have you spoken to and do they have some special knowledge about their government the rest of the world doesn't have?
 
barbos said:
ZiprHead said:
Provided by the Russian government?
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Ukrainian government. You see, Ukraine does have a freedom of the press. Unfortunately for you it is in ukrainian and ...... russian still.
Plus don't forget, I can and speak to actual ukrainians.
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So can I and a lot of people in the west. The people I know actually live in Ukraine, not Russia. We can also speak to Russians who disagree with barbos, who lives in Siberia. Ukrainian can be just as easily translated by Google Translate as Russian, but why bother when you can get both Russian and Ukrainian newspapers in English?

Latest Ukraine News in Kyiv Post
 
ZiprHead said:
barbos said:
ZiprHead said:
Provided by the Russian government?
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Ukrainian government. You see, Ukraine does have a freedom of the press. Unfortunately for you it is in ukrainian and ...... russian still.
Plus don't forget, I can and speak to actual ukrainians.
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So what Ukrainians have you spoken to and do they have some special knowledge about their government the rest of the world doesn't have?
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Nothing special, special is what you get from MSM.
 
nationalinterest.org

Why Washington Has Lost Its Mind Over Ukraine

Putin’s stated vision for Russia and Ukraine is not absorption into a common state, but the sort of relationship that exists between the United States and Canada, in which people who share a common ancestry cooperate and profit from their relationship, while still having separate states.
nationalinterest.org nationalinterest.org

Putin must have some kompromat on this observer.

The biggest thing that our imaginative Russia experts miss is that Putin is constrained by Russian public opinion. By repeatedly chanting “autocracy,” they make it seem as if Putin is entirely disjoined from his nation, which is not so. The Russian nation sees the obvious point that the conquest of Ukraine would inevitably come at the expense of the Russian people.
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The cleverest feature of the administration’s approach is that, when there is no war, Biden and Blinken can claim that it was all due to them and their solid statesmanship. Deterrence has been successful! Our firm leadership made it so!
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Very smart, eh?
 
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barbos said:
nationalinterest.org

Why Washington Has Lost Its Mind Over Ukraine

Putin’s stated vision for Russia and Ukraine is not absorption into a common state, but the sort of relationship that exists between the United States and Canada, in which people who share a common ancestry cooperate and profit from their relationship, while still having separate states.
nationalinterest.org nationalinterest.org

Putin must have some kompromat on this observer.
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And if Canada for whatever reason or no reason at all decided it did not want to cooperate with the United States, the United States would not force a relationship upon Canada, take any part of Canada, grant US citizenship to select regions of Canada, or support a separatist movement within Canada.
barbos said:
The biggest thing that our imaginative Russia experts miss is that Putin is constrained by Russian public opinion. By repeatedly chanting “autocracy,” they make it seem as if Putin is entirely disjoined from his nation, which is not so. The Russian nation sees the obvious point that the conquest of Ukraine would inevitably come at the expense of the Russian people.
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Which we know is shaped by Russian media which is largely controlled by the Russian government and has one of the worst rankings for freedom of the press in the world.
barbos said:
The cleverest feature of the administration’s approach is that, when there is no war, Biden and Blinken can claim that it was all due to them and their solid statesmanship. Deterrence has been successful! Our firm leadership made it so!
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Very smart, eh?
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Conjecture.
From the start of Putin’s latest petulance, the MSM here has painted a picture of this being an EU problem and the US will play its role within NATO.

One certainty is Putin has strengthened NATO and made more countries concerned about Russian military aggression.
Let’s see if Poland strengthens its military. I know they’ve been slow walking their military modernization. Vlad the Aggressor may have accomplished what Poland’s government could not.
 
TV and credit cards said:
And if Canada for whatever reason or no reason at all decided it did not want to cooperate with the United States, the United States would not force a relationship upon Canada, take any part of Canada, grant US citizenship to select regions of Canada, or support a separatist movement within Canada.
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Great, I think Putin should send his people to help these truckers in their Maidan.
With some effort Trudeau will be overthrown and Russia will have access to US bases in Canada.
 
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TV and credit cards said:
Which we know is shaped by Russian media which is largely controlled by the Russian government and has one of the worst rankings for freedom of the press in the world.
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Actually you don't know that. And I take offence in that. I myself is not an easy target for propaganda. Pozner is not either and he is hardly fan of Putin.
In any case, the guy, who wrote it, is american and he is in US. Same with other people I cited. So what's your excuse for their views?
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Copernicus said:
It looks like Germany's Scholz is ready to accept the end of Nord Stream 2, if Putin invades. He is still balking a little, but Germany would find it very difficult to open the pipeline up after another invasion.

Biden threatens: No gas pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine
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Germany should stop acting like a US colony and assert their own foreign policy.
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Why do you assume that trying to prevent a war isn't good foreign policy for Germany? Germans are manufacturers that export products to other counties. But they also rely on others for many of their raw materials. Yes, their irrational fear of nuclear power has made them venerable. Not wise to rely on a war mongering country for your energy. But at the end of the day, Germany profits greatly during stable peaceful times. Trying to prevent a Ukranian war benefits them.
 
Well, it looks like Germany is finally showing a willingness to take an active military role on behalf of Ukraine, and if they did, then this just might put a period to Putin's compulsive territorial theft. However, I think that Germany was justified, previously, in being hesitant to help Ukraine when it was unclear whether or not the Ukrainian people would be determined to take an active role in their own self-defense. However, it looks like the Ukrainian people are preparing to make a serious go of fighting back against a Russian invasion, so I think it is appropriate that Germany would join them now as an ally. Decisive military action to forcibly rebuff Russia would probably cost less lives than letting Russia get themselves into a prolonged military quagmire, with Ukrainians fighting to throw off such an occupation.

If it does come to blows, in Ukraine, then I think that the US would be justified in joining on the side of NATO forces, assuming that western Europe had a genuine commitment.

It is also extremely rare for me to side with a hawkish policy. It looks to me like Russia is in a process of territorial expansion. They took Crimea because they were hopeful of establishing naval supremacy in the Black Sea. I don't think they have any intention of being satisfied under any circumstances whatsoever. If they were allowed to take Ukraine, then they would go for Lithuania, pulling the same trick of repeatedly putting their thumb on the scale and undermining the country's political stability until the point where they rolled over like a dog. They are already making war. They have already invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine. They have already invaded and occupied parts of the Republic of Georgia. They have succeeded at subverting Belarusian resistance against them, making Belarus effectively a satrap and independent in name only. and they have made threatening gestures toward Lithuania. They are already at war, and I think it's a little bit unhinged to pretend otherwise.

The only question is at which point the US ought to intervene. I would need evidence that the rest of Europe is going to get serious about their own self-defense. I am not really comfortable with the idea of Europe's defense strategy leaning too heavily upon their relationship with the United States. It already causes serious strain, in our international relations, that we have as strong of a role in that relationship as we do. It is hard for the United States to do business with China and other countries because they see us as dangerously imperialistic, and this is not entirely without justification. The more that Europe (meaning current and prospective NATO participants in Europe) shows a willingness to play a leadership role in resisting Russian expansion, the more inclined I am to side with my country lending them support.
 
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