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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

It is about Putin, but not the way you think.

By the way, from your link:
Crimea was a particular chunk of territory that pretty much every Russian, whether they love or hate Putin, thought was rightfully Russian. It was Russian until the 1950s when it was transferred to Ukrainian control. But that was a one-off. Everyone thought that [annexing Crimea] was right and proper. Frankly, most Crimeans actually genuinely wanted to become part of Russia.
I could not find that quote in the article that Moogly linked to, but it is worth noting that Crimea was not a part of the Russian Federation after 1921 until Stalin removed its status as an autonomous republic within the Soviet Union and downgraded to an oblast of the Russian Federation in 1946. Then, in 1954, Khrushchev shifted the oblast into Ukraine and restored some of its former autonomy. Prior to the Soviet Union, Crimea, like Ukraine, Belarus, and part of Poland, had been incorporated into the Russian Empire. It had been at least nominally under Ottoman control before that. Most Russians think of it as Russian, because that is what they are taught in school. When Stalin removed its status as an autonomous republic, he deported the entire population of  Crimean Tatars (roughly 240,000 people) mainly to Uzbekistan and moved more Russians and Ukrainians into the peninsula. Russians are taught a very different history, but their version of history was filtered through the Tsarist and Soviet periods, when Russian nationalists were writing the history books used to teach children.
 
We are now at a very dangerous stage, as Putin's buildup seems to leave little hope that he will refrain from invading. Mass casualties are expected. Millie has predicted that they could possibly seize Kyiv in 72 hours of the start. A token force of US troops have started arriving in Eastern Europe.

U.S. says Russia has amassed about 75% of the troops it would need to invade Ukraine

Yes, very dangerous time. Will be interesting to see if Russia becomes the first country to violate the Olympics peace requirement. Macron is working hard; shuttling back and forth from Europe to Russia trying to find a compromise. America is trying to find a compromise by encouraging more transparency about missile deployment in Eastern Europe and a call for reciprocal commitments by both the United States and Russia to refrain from deploying missiles or troops in Ukraine. Putin has rejected the American response to his demands as inadequate. Good luck to the government officials trying to figure out what would kind of compromise would satisfy Putin.
 
I think it's safe to say that nothing is going to satisfy Putin. The question on the minds of all peace loving free people is what will deter Putin and all the Putins and Trumps that come along in history. The ultimate answer is democratic governments across the globe, as Putin could never do what he is doing within a league of democratic states.

At this point I think we have to contain things like Putin and be willing to suffer any costs. Is Putin willing to invade Ukraine? If he is than western democracies have to be willing to oppose him. The ball is clearly in his court.
 
As Putin continues to build up his invasion force, Biden has now warned Americans to leave the country. President Macron of France had been talking about measures that Europe could take to appease Putin, but now he sounds pessimistic. It now looks like Putin could move to take Kyiv quickly to install a puppet regime and significantly degrade the Ukrainian military's ability to coordinate a defense. This is going to be a real slaughter, if he goes through with it.

Biden advises Americans in Ukraine to leave the country
 
It is about Putin, but not the way you think.

By the way, from your link:
Crimea was a particular chunk of territory that pretty much every Russian, whether they love or hate Putin, thought was rightfully Russian. It was Russian until the 1950s when it was transferred to Ukrainian control. But that was a one-off. Everyone thought that [annexing Crimea] was right and proper. Frankly, most Crimeans actually genuinely wanted to become part of Russia.

What Russians think about the status of Ukraine is absolutely irrelevant to the issue.
 
It is about Putin, but not the way you think.

By the way, from your link:
Crimea was a particular chunk of territory that pretty much every Russian, whether they love or hate Putin, thought was rightfully Russian. It was Russian until the 1950s when it was transferred to Ukrainian control. But that was a one-off. Everyone thought that [annexing Crimea] was right and proper. Frankly, most Crimeans actually genuinely wanted to become part of Russia.

What Russians think about the status of Ukraine is absolutely irrelevant to the issue.
I discussed this back in 2014 with Barbos too. If people in Crimea wanted to live in Russia, they had the opportunity to move there, legally.

If I walk into your house with my family, invited or not, it doesn't matter if we "win" a "democratic vote" on whether your house belongs to my family now. Taking your house is still a violation and illegal.
 
What Russians think about the status of Ukraine is absolutely irrelevant to the issue.
And what people living in Crimea want is also absolutely irrelevant. Putin was never going to hold a referendum that he could lose. The people who had counted votes in Crimea prior to the Russian invasion were suddenly replaced by new people. Then the referendum took place.
 
It is about Putin, but not the way you think.

By the way, from your link:
Crimea was a particular chunk of territory that pretty much every Russian, whether they love or hate Putin, thought was rightfully Russian. It was Russian until the 1950s when it was transferred to Ukrainian control. But that was a one-off. Everyone thought that [annexing Crimea] was right and proper. Frankly, most Crimeans actually genuinely wanted to become part of Russia.

What Russians think about the status of Ukraine is absolutely irrelevant to the issue.
Yep. A ski buddy of mine told me about cousins of his that live in Kiev. He talked with them last Sunday. They are scared. New father and mother with a two kids under the age of 4. He's an accountant, she's a stay-at-home mom. She bakes cookies for nervous neighbors. Lots of civilians are going to die when Russia invades. At this point, I agree with you, I don't care what Russians think the status of Ukraine should be.
 
The west is covering likely excuses Putin might use to start a war. Whether it’s based on intelligence that cannot be revealed to the press or assumptions of likely scenarios is neither here nor there as far as I’m concerned.
Democracy is lying and you are not concerned.
Democracy lied about Georgia, you were not concerned.
Democracy lied about about Ukrainian coup, you were not concerned.
Democracy lied about WMD in Iraq, you were not concerned.
And therefore it’s acceptable for Russia to invade Ukraine. You’re a broken record, Barbos. You’ve said a hundred things and not one of them justifies Russia invading Ukraine.
 
I see that Putin and Xi (not Russia and China) just signed a pact opposing democracy. Excellent! Kinda reminds me of the Stalin/Hitler pact to divide Poland. I wonder if Putin has is sights on reclaiming Alaska in the name of Putinist manifest destiny.
 
The west is covering likely excuses Putin might use to start a war. Whether it’s based on intelligence that cannot be revealed to the press or assumptions of likely scenarios is neither here nor there as far as I’m concerned.
Democracy is lying and you are not concerned.
Democracy lied about Georgia, you were not concerned.
Democracy lied about about Ukrainian coup, you were not concerned.
Democracy lied about WMD in Iraq, you were not concerned.
And therefore it’s acceptable for Russia to invade Ukraine. You’re a broken record, Barbos. You’ve said a hundred things and not one of them justifies Russia invading Ukraine.
For Barbos, “democracy” has become a fully embodied malevolent entity that speaks and lies.
That delusion alone is sufficient to allow dismissal of any possible truth value of his spiel. What remains is a somewhat interesting artifact of the propaganda conditioned mode of thought.
I doubt that anyone so effected allows that level of delusion to bleed into other aspects of their life, or we’d see lots of Russians running around naked in the snow, screaming insanities about unseen demons.
 
Well, it turns out that the Paris summit between Macron and Putin didn't lead to any breakthroughs, although Putin supposedly claimed that he would not further escalate the situation. However, Putin has been claiming all along that he had no intention of invading and that Ukraine was behaving provocatively. So I don't see a change of tone there. Putin has lied before about his actions in Ukraine, so his word has no value.

Ironically, Putin claims that the only way to make progress is through the  Minsk Protocol, which was initially violated by his Donetsk proxies and then renegotiated. Poroshenko signed it, but it had requirements that turned out to be quite impossible--for example, passing laws that the president had no power to enact by decree. Nevertheless, it was the only way to establish a ceasefire. Peskov has ironically claimed that Ukraine should honor a commitment made by a previous president. Reporters apparently did not think to ask him why Putin did not honor the commitment made by Yeltsin in the Budapest Memo. I remember that Barbos took the position that Russia never made any binding commitment, so I suppose that Ukraine has the same excuse here.

The most interesting thing to come out of the Macron-Putin summit is that Putin's well-known misogyny and contempt for Ukraine's sovereign status came out clearly. Of Ukraine, he said that "she" should just "endure it"--a veiled reference to raping a woman. IOW, if she's going to be raped, she should just resolve to take it. Doubtless, he felt that this was an amusing way of expressing what he intended for Ukraine.

See: Putin's use of crude language reveals a lot about his worldview
 
Well, it turns out that the Paris summit between Macron and Putin didn't lead to any breakthroughs, although Putin supposedly claimed that he would not further escalate the situation. However, Putin has been claiming all along that he had no intention of invading and that Ukraine was behaving provocatively. So I don't see a change of tone there. Putin has lied before about his actions in Ukraine, so his word has no value.

Ironically, Putin claims that the only way to make progress is through the  Minsk Protocol, which was initially violated by his Donetsk proxies and then renegotiated. Poroshenko signed it, but it had requirements that turned out to be quite impossible--for example, passing laws that the president had no power to enact by decree. Nevertheless, it was the only way to establish a ceasefire. Peskov has ironically claimed that Ukraine should honor a commitment made by a previous president. Reporters apparently did not think to ask him why Putin did not honor the commitment made by Yeltsin in the Budapest Memo. I remember that Barbos took the position that Russia never made any binding commitment, so I suppose that Ukraine has the same excuse here.

The most interesting thing to come out of the Macron-Putin summit is that Putin's well-known misogyny and contempt for Ukraine's sovereign status came out clearly. Of Ukraine, he said that "she" should just "endure it"--a veiled reference to raping a woman. IOW, if she's going to be raped, she should just resolve to take it. Doubtless, he felt that this was an amusing way of expressing what he intended for Ukraine.

See: Putin's use of crude language reveals a lot about his worldview
Yeah, I read that comment and was stunned. Putin’s misogyny is well known. Any US politician saying that would be crucified. Except for his puppet, tRump.
 
Yep. A ski buddy of mine told me about cousins of his that live in Kiev. He talked with them last Sunday. They are scared. New father and mother with a two kids under the age of 4. He's an accountant, she's a stay-at-home mom. She bakes cookies for nervous neighbors. Lots of civilians are going to die when Russia invades. At this point, I agree with you, I don't care what Russians think the status of Ukraine should be.

I don't think there's any "at this point" about it--the only time outsiders have any say in what leader a country chooses is when said country chooses the path of war or harming citizens of other countries without declared hostilities. (Note: "chooses"--many leaders got there by the barrel of a gun, not by the ballot box. Thus things like Vietnam removing the Khmer Rouge from Cambodia because of internal atrocities I find acceptable.)
 
It's been anticipated by experts that if Russia invades, that it would wait until after the Olympics. But before the great spring thaw. However, it appears that global warming is starting to melt the Ukranian ice. This might force Putin's hand earlier. China won't be happy. It's not that the mud will slow down Russia. But the Russian tanks and support vehicles will more need to drive down roads. The roads are more predictable and easier for the smaller anti-tank personnel to hide, and take them out. Muddy conditions should help the defenders, slow down the invaders.
 
It's been anticipated by experts that if Russia invades, that it would wait until after the Olympics. But before the great spring thaw. However, it appears that global warming is starting to melt the Ukranian ice. This might force Putin's hand earlier. China won't be happy. It's not that the mud will slow down Russia. But the Russian tanks and support vehicles will more need to drive down roads. The roads are more predictable and easier for the smaller anti-tank personnel to hide, and take them out. Muddy conditions should help the defenders, slow down the invaders.
That's hard to say, given the ability of modern equipment to deal with such conditions. At least, that's what I've heard--that the mud would have been more of a serious barrier for older equipment. However, I'm far from being an expert in military tactics and equipment. The Russians will have the advantage of overwhelming air support, and I don't think that the light defensive weapons that the Ukrainians have will be very effective against an invasion force of the size that rings Ukraine. A lot of Russians will die in the fighting, but Ukrainians will be slaughtered by a combined air and ground operation. Russia has started its "training exercises" with Belarus, which can be a pretense for gearing up to invade. The real challenge for Russia will be during the occupation.
 
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