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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

It's been anticipated by experts that if Russia invades, that it would wait until after the Olympics. But before the great spring thaw. However, it appears that global warming is starting to melt the Ukranian ice. This might force Putin's hand earlier. China won't be happy. It's not that the mud will slow down Russia. But the Russian tanks and support vehicles will more need to drive down roads. The roads are more predictable and easier for the smaller anti-tank personnel to hide, and take them out. Muddy conditions should help the defenders, slow down the invaders.
That's hard to say, given the ability of modern equipment to deal with such conditions. At least, that's what I've heard--that the mud would have been more of a serious barrier for older equipment. However, I'm far from being an expert in military tactics and equipment. The Russians will have the advantage of overwhelming air support, and I don't think that the light defensive weapons that the Ukrainians have will be very effective against an invasion force of the size that rings Ukraine. A lot of Russians will die in the fighting, but Ukrainians will be slaughtered by a combined air and ground operation. Russia has started its "training exercises" with Belarus, which can be a pretense for gearing up to invade. The real challenge for Russia will be during the occupation.
I wonder to what extent the lowlands between Ukraine and Belarus come into play. Mud is one thing. Marsh is something else. It may be a matter of being too much for wheeled/tracked vehicles and too little for any watercraft of weight.
 
Here is a piece of ominous news. Putin had his massive superyacht undergoing renovations in Germany. He pulled it out of the shipyard abruptly to send it into Russian waters, where it will not be subject to sanctions during a sudden invasion of Ukraine. If he is moving to protect his personal assets in this way, that is a sure sign that he is serious about ordering an attack on Ukraine. The renovations on his yacht were not yet completed, but he felt some urgency in getting it out of there. I'm sure that ordinary Russians will take the hint and move their yachts to safe waters as well.

Vladimir Putin’s superyacht the Graceful leaves Germany before sanctions can bite
 
High Ranking Retired Russian General Criticizes Putin

To be clear, Ivashov believes that NATO is a hostile power, but his experience has taught him that the NATO/U.S. threat is under control and no external threat is imminent from the Western powers. The massive buildup of Russian troops on the Ukraine and Belarus borders, therefore, is not to deal with a threat from the West. Rather, it is to divert attention from the internal health, demographic challenges, living-standards collapse and pervasive corruption that the Russian citizenry is suffering under the mismanagement of an incompetent Putin regime.

Nice to see some sanity operating within Putinstan.

And is barbos gone?
 
Barbos is still an active member, so he is probably just monitoring the thread for now.

It looks like the invasion is imminent, so Biden has again warned all Americans to leave the country--now within 24 to 48 hours. I fear for my few Ukrainian friends, because Russia could start with bombs and missiles--mass destruction that kills civilians and soldiers indiscriminately. The internet connections to Ukraine will probably go down quickly when this starts, and there will likely be cyberattacks on western countries, as well. The 82nd Airborne in Poland has been ordered to assist Americans, who may be fleeing across the border. Biden has already said that there will be no attempts to rescue Americans trapped inside of Ukraine. The US Embassy is expecting the worst and has been evacuating as many personnel as possible.

New intel suggests Russia may attack before Olympics end

 
It's been anticipated by experts that if Russia invades, that it would wait until after the Olympics. But before the great spring thaw. However, it appears that global warming is starting to melt the Ukranian ice. This might force Putin's hand earlier. China won't be happy. It's not that the mud will slow down Russia. But the Russian tanks and support vehicles will more need to drive down roads. The roads are more predictable and easier for the smaller anti-tank personnel to hide, and take them out. Muddy conditions should help the defenders, slow down the invaders.
That's hard to say, given the ability of modern equipment to deal with such conditions. At least, that's what I've heard--that the mud would have been more of a serious barrier for older equipment. However, I'm far from being an expert in military tactics and equipment. The Russians will have the advantage of overwhelming air support, and I don't think that the light defensive weapons that the Ukrainians have will be very effective against an invasion force of the size that rings Ukraine. A lot of Russians will die in the fighting, but Ukrainians will be slaughtered by a combined air and ground operation. Russia has started its "training exercises" with Belarus, which can be a pretense for gearing up to invade. The real challenge for Russia will be during the occupation.

In open battle the Ukraine doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. However, that doesn't mean they can't make it incredibly bloody with hit-and-run tactics. It's the same as what happened to them in Afghanistan--the army didn't stand a chance but the continued pinpricks drove them out.
 
@Loren Pechtel I have heard that Ukrainians tend to object to their country being called "the Ukraine," though don't quote me on that. I'm not sure how widely Ukrainians agree with that sentiment.

Personally, I think that Putin has sort of painted himself into a corner. His support, among his own people, is based on a myth he has promulgated, to his people, that he has made Russia into an invincible race of ultra-muscular supermen or something, however he talks about it, and Europe and America, with their democracy and liberalism, have become a bunch of decadent sissies. However, he has not attacked, up until this point, because if NATO forces march in and proceed to black his eye for him, then his illusion will start to break down. Essentially, he is doing the same thing as North Korea's dictators.

However, he is also hopeful that Europe and the US will become complacent enough, in this knowledge, that they will easily let Ukraine go, so he can roll his tanks into a politically divided Ukraine. What he has been trying to do is create areas in Ukraine where his tanks will be greeted with cheering crowds, so he can present it to his own people as evidence of a broader sentiment in Ukraine. He wants to do essentially the same thing to the whole of Ukraine as he did in Crimea, create a sort of sham vote and feed his people and his international supporters a narrative that Ukraine had welcomed him as some sort of a "great liberator" and rescued them from the teeth of a "greedy and expansionist EU."

Therefore, he has left us with basically no choice except to take a strong stance against him and make sure that it would be expensive for him to attempt an invasion. That way, he can continue beating his chest and keeping his people convinced that only his big, heroic Russian superman muscles are the only thing in the world that are stopping the greedy and expansionist European Union from beating up poor, persecuted Russia.

He would rather have NATO on his doorstep than fight a full-fledged war, but he would love to roll some tanks into Ukraine and say "We're here as your great liberators," and have the EU roll over like a dog.

Therefore, there is no way out of this without there being a very real possibility that we actually would unite and lob one right into the men's room at the Kremlin. Without Europe making a show of willingness to protect Ukraine from invasion, pro-EU politicians in Ukraine are at risk of losing the argument that the EU and NATO are going to be there for them.

There is a way out of escalating it into a war but not without making war appear to be inevitable.
 
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I wouldn't worry about barbos, who has been in lurk mode for several days. I monitor RT and other Russian sources lately to get a better sense of what the latest Kremlin line is.

Meanwhile, the US is now pulling its military advisors out and most of its embassy staff. If Putin intends to bluff, he is spending an awful lot of money and building up incredible expectations to do it. Zelensky was trying to play down the feeling that Russia was about to invade, but I think that he has stopped that now.
 
I have heard that Ukrainians tend to object to their country being called "the Ukraine," though don't quote me on that. I'm not sure how widely Ukrainians agree with that sentiment.
That's true, and I have always felt that merely calling the country "Ukraine" was awkward for English speakers. "Ukrainia" would have sounded better, IMO, but those promoting "Ukraine" may have misunderstood how definite articles work in geographical names. I like "Czechia" much better than "The Czech Republic", so I think that the Czechs got it right. Anyway, what's done is done. "Ukraine" it is.
 
"The" is used in nation names that are essentially common names rather than proper names, like "The United States", "The United Kingdom", "The United Arab Emirates", and "The Czech Republic". "Arab" and "Czech" are proper names, but they modify common names in the nations' names, so that's why one uses "the". English speakers sometimes use "the" in nation names, like "The Gambia", but that's not common.

In English, one doesn't use the definite article with proper names, but in Modern Greek, that's common.

Ukrainian itself, like most Slavic languages, does not have a definite article.

 Name of Ukraine - also mentions which preposition to use when saying "in Ukraine" in a Slavic language: either v or na.

Ukraine or the Ukraine: Why do some country names have 'the'? - BBC News
There are many other country names that are habitually referred to with "the", such as Congo, Gambia, Yemen, Lebanon, Sudan, Netherlands, Philippines and Bahamas.

But according to several authoritative sources, such as the CIA World Factbook, the Times Comprehensive Atlas of the World and the US Department of State, only two countries, The Bahamas and The Gambia, should officially be referred to with the article.

The two Congos are officially Democratic Republic of the Congo and Republic of the Congo. And the longer, official name for Netherlands is Kingdom of the Netherlands.

...
"Groups of islands like the Maldives and the Bahamas. You wouldn't say 'I'm going to Maldives, you'd say 'I'm going to the Maldives' because it's a geographical area."

Countries like the United States of America and the United Kingdom also carry the definite article because they are compound nouns with adjectives.

...
"Sometimes country names go back to river names. As late as the mid-20th Century, everyone said The Congo because Congo is the river and named after the river, but no-one says it any more."

He suspects that people once preferred to add the article if the place name related to a geographical feature like a group of islands (Bahamas) a river (Congo), a desert (Sudan) or mountain range (Lebanon).

"Later the phrases were shortened, but the article survived. Hence the arbitrary rule that river names, the names of deserts and mountain ranges need 'the'."

...
"So the Netherlands is 'the low countries'. And as long as the meaning is clear, the article isn't entirely useless. Sometimes it's a relic of the past, for example the [administrative] capital of the Netherlands, The Hague, means 'hedge' or 'haw', hence The Hague with the article has been preserved.
 
Ukraine - Wiktionary -- that site has lots of translations, and I looked for trends in the nation's name.

Slavic languages all have versions of Ukraina, and that is also common elsewhere, like in Finnish, Hungarian, Greek, Turkish, Armenian, Kazakh, Japanese, etc.

German has Ukraine, though the e is pronounced: a schwa or "uh" sound, a common sort of reduced vowel sound, Dutch has Oekraine, Danish Ukraine, and Norwegian, Swedish, and Icelandic Ukraine.

Turning to the Romance languages, French has Ukraine, Catalan Ucraïna, Spanish Ucrania, Portuguese Ucrânia, Italian and Romanian Ucraina.

Most of these are close to the original, except for the French one, which replaces -a with -e and uses a spelling pronunciation: /ükren/. The English one looks borrowed from French and given an English spelling pronunciation: /yukrein/.
 
Meanwhile, the US is now pulling its military advisors out and most of its embassy staff. If Putin intends to bluff, he is spending an awful lot of money and building up incredible expectations to do it. Zelensky was trying to play down the feeling that Russia was about to invade, but I think that he has stopped that now.
What would a mob boss do? Putin runs Russia like a mob boss but I guess it depends on the mob boss.

Earlier I said that Putin is no dummy but neither would anyone call him intellectual. I'm not sure he's in the same league as Khrushchev. The line seems to be that he senses a Europe and an America divided against themselves and is milking the situation for all he can get. I really don't think he expected that his demands about Ukraine and NATO would be so immediately rejected, much like Hitler never thought Britain and France would go to was over Poland.

And that's really the big question. Does the Putinator know what he's signing up for? Does he realize that he cannot have Ukraine like he had the Crimea? Unless he's totally daff an invasion would be like Pearl Harbor, the long term cost something he can neither sustain nor afford. I'd like to be a fly on the wall when Xi is in the room too. What is Xi telling him?
 
"Ukrainia" would be a simple back formation from "Ukrainian". "Ukraina" would not sound much better than "Ukraine". The British have tended to refer to "Argentina" as "The Argentine" in the past. It's really just a matter of convention in geographical names.
 
And that's really the big question. Does the Putinator know what he's signing up for? Does he realize that he cannot have Ukraine like he had the Crimea? Unless he's totally daff an invasion would be like Pearl Harbor, the long term cost something he can neither sustain nor afford. I'd like to be a fly on the wall when Xi is in the room too. What is Xi telling him?
I think that his sanest option now would be to simply not invade, but use the troops in Belarus to cement Russian hegemony there. If he pulls back from an invasion, the Germans would likely fall over themselves to open up Nord Stream 2, and that would be there next time around as a card to play in trying to control EU behavior and divide the western alliance. It's just that he seems to really want to obliterate Ukraine's separation from Russia. He has published his manifesto on Ukraine as the historical heartland of the Russian Empire, so I don't think that he is going to give that dream up.
 
Maybe he is planning for an East Ukraine and West Ukraine. Is that possible? It's not a strategy I've heard talked about but there have been scenarios where he would link up the Crimea with Donbas. In his deluded head he could think about it as invading Russia and not Ukraine. But again, very Hitlerish.
 
That looks very plausible. Eastern and southern Ukraine have a lot of ethnic Russians, while western, central, and northern Ukraine are less Russian.

After the Holodomor, Stalin increased the resettlement of ethnic Russians into mostly Eastern Ukraine. Tymoshenko was a Pro-Europe candidate while Yanukovych was more aligned towards Russia. : MapPorn
That's Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych. YT supports NATO membership and she is known for her crown-braid hairstyle. VY, however, was pro-Russian.

The less-Russian parts of Ukraine were in the furthest extent of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, back in 1619.
 
Maybe he is planning for an East Ukraine and West Ukraine. Is that possible? It's not a strategy I've heard talked about but there have been scenarios where he would link up the Crimea with Donbas. In his deluded head he could think about it as invading Russia and not Ukraine. But again, very Hitlerish.
A divide and conquer strategy would make more sense than a full scale invasion. Putin would infinitely prefer a Yanukovych-style president that would be amenable to aligning with Russian policy in the way that Lukashenko was. If he takes Kyiv and Odessa, that would be a mess to control in the future.
 
That looks very plausible. Eastern and southern Ukraine have a lot of ethnic Russians, while western, central, and northern Ukraine are less Russian.

After the Holodomor, Stalin increased the resettlement of ethnic Russians into mostly Eastern Ukraine. Tymoshenko was a Pro-Europe candidate while Yanukovych was more aligned towards Russia. : MapPorn
That's Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych. YT supports NATO membership and she is known for her crown-braid hairstyle. VY, however, was pro-Russian.

The less-Russian parts of Ukraine were in the furthest extent of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, back in 1619.
But the Donbas region was almost entirely ethnic Ukrainian at the beginning of the Russian occupation. The Cossacks would align with or against Poland, based on what they perceived their interests to be. Ultimately, the Zaporozhians went with the Tsar, but they also occasionally rebelled. They were Orthodox Christians, and the Poles were Catholics. The Russian Tsars used that fact to claim rule over lands to the west and south that had large populations of Orthodox believers. The Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth was at least nominally a secular state, but the Grand Duchy had large numbers of Orthodox Ruthenians and other religious groups, including a large Jewish population. After the Russians took over, they tended to concentrate Jews in Lithuania, requiring special permission for them to live elsewhere.

It's worth considering that language and ethnic background are not the only factors at play here. A lot of ethnic Russians in Ukraine would prefer an alliance with the West and membership in NATO rather than Russian hegemony. Putin is less popular than his supporters would like us to believe, even if he still has the support of the majority of Russians. The same is true of Belarusans. 70% of Belarusans claim Belarussian as their native language, but only about a quarter of the population speaks it regularly. That suggests that most would prefer to stay independent of Russia, but they obviously don't have that option now.
 
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