How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Loren Pechtel]

How about we tell Ukraine to not attack Russian targets inside Russia once Russia stops attacking Ukrainians inside of Ukraine? That’s a win win for all!

This war can end only in two ways. 1. WWIII, or 2. Ukraine and Russia agree to cease fire.
NATO's supply of more armaments is not going to stop the war. China and North Korea will support Russia.
Does Zelenskiy not understand this? Why does he want Ukraine to be destroyed completely?

3. The Russian army returns to Russia. Ukraine isn't going to pursue.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Capitulation to expansionist dictators isn't a more palatable option now.

Russia is not going to leave Donetsk, Luhansk or Crimea. So, you think WWIII is the only option?

You realize Russia would by far fare the worst in WWIII?

 

[aupmanyav]

3. The Russian army returns to Russia. Ukraine isn't going to pursue.

Army does what the leaders of nations (if they are in control) demand.
As a tangent, will the Israeli army return and leave Gaza?
Armies are given tasks. They stop only after the task is completed. Their duty (dharma) demands it.

"hato vā prāpsyasi svargam, jitvā vā bhokṣyase mahīm;
tasmād uttiṣṭha Kaunteya, yuddhāya kṛta-niścayaḥ." Bhaqwad Gita 2.37

Either you will be killed on the battlefield and attain heaven, or you will conquer and enjoy the earthly kingdom. Therefore, O son of Kuntī, get up with determination and fight.

 

[aupmanyav]

You realize Russia would by far fare the worst in WWIII?

I do not know who all will be affected in WWIII and how they will fare in the war or after.
Nations have upward of 6,000 nuclear bombs on each side.

 

[bilby]

How about we tell Ukraine to not attack Russian targets inside Russia once Russia stops attacking Ukrainians inside of Ukraine? That’s a win win for all!

This war can end only in two ways. 1. WWIII, or 2. Ukraine and Russia agree to cease fire.
NATO's supply of more armaments is not going to stop the war. China and North Korea will support Russia.
Does Zelenskiy Putin not understand this? Why does he want Ukraine Russia to be destroyed completely?

FTFY.

 

[bilby]

Armies are given tasks. They stop only after the task is completed.

...or they are defeated.

Napoleon gave his Grand Armée a task. They tried, they failed, and most of them died - of hunger and cold.

If Russian logistics are interdicted before they can reach the invading forces in Ukraine, those forces can retreat to Russia, or they can die.

 

[bilby]

You realize Russia would by far fare the worst in WWIII?

I do not know who all will be affected in WWIII and how they will fare in the war or after.
Nations have upward of 6,000 nuclear bombs on each side.

The Germans (and for that matter, the British) had huge stockpiles of Mustard Gas and other chemical agents available in WWII. Despite their imminent defeat, Germany never deployed those weapons, for fear that their enemies would retailate in kind.

In a WWIII scenario, I doubt that either NATO or Russia would use nuclear weapons. The leaders on both sides are fully aware that to do so would invite disaster for themselves and their nations.

But particularly for themselves personally.

Putin won't do anything that risks Putin's precious hide. And that includes inviting NATO to hit him with a nuke, by using any of his own (if they even work).

 

[barbos]

In other news, Not so great anymore G7 threatens to sanction banks for "not using" SWIFT.
So they kicked out Russia out SWIFT hoping that it will collapse Russia. Then when it did not happen and Russia created their own analog of SWIFT they threaten banks with sanctions for using that. That's Bizarro World for you.

 

[barbos]

You realize Russia would by far fare the worst in WWIII?

Was that what Hitler said before invading USSR?

 

[barbos]

How about we tell Ukraine to not attack Russian targets inside Russia once Russia stops attacking Ukrainians inside of Ukraine? That’s a win win for all!

This war can end only in two ways. 1. WWIII, or 2. Ukraine and Russia agree to cease fire.
NATO's supply of more armaments is not going to stop the war. China and North Korea will support Russia.
Does Zelenskiy Putin not understand this? Why does he want Ukraine Russia to be destroyed completely?

FTFY.

Bulshit "FTFY". FT reports that people (real nazis) around Elensky are worried about state of his mind.
He is having regular meltdowns and tantrums and recently fired few people which were too close to ..... US masters.
Elensky is mad at Biden for not sanctioning strikes deep inside Russia and not coming to his peace conference.
Your clown puppet piano player is mad.

 

[aupmanyav]

...or they are defeated.
Napoleon gave his Grand Armée a task. They tried, they failed, and most of them died - of hunger and cold.
If Russian logistics are interdicted before they can reach the invading forces in Ukraine, those forces can retreat to Russia, or they can die.

Yeah, that is what Krishna says in Gita. Either an army wins or the soldiers go to heaven. In a war, anything can happen.
In the Battle of Ten Kings in RigVeda, River Ravi flooded in face of attack by ten kings and Sudasa won.

Battle of the Ten Kings - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Harry Bosch]

How about we tell Ukraine to not attack Russian targets inside Russia once Russia stops attacking Ukrainians inside of Ukraine? That’s a win win for all!

This war can end only in two ways. 1. WWIII, or 2. Ukraine and Russia agree to cease fire.
NATO's supply of more armaments is not going to stop the war. China and North Korea will support Russia.
Does Zelenskiy not understand this? Why does he want Ukraine to be destroyed completely?

Do you really think that Russia would honor any cease fire? You really think that Russia would be satisfied by only the land that they currently occupy in Ukraine? Puter wants all of Ukraine and probably significantly more in Eastern Europe. The world's best chance to stop Russian imperialism is in Ukraine. The Ukrainians are willing to fight (they have no choice really). I'm sure that Ukraine and Russia have been unofficially talking for many months about a peace agreement. But Russia does not really want peace. Just ask Barbos.

 

[TV and credit cards]

How about we tell Ukraine to not attack Russian targets inside Russia once Russia stops attacking Ukrainians inside of Ukraine? That’s a win win for all!

This war can end only in two ways. 1. WWIII, or 2. Ukraine and Russia agree to cease fire.
NATO's supply of more armaments is not going to stop the war. China and North Korea will support Russia.
Does Zelenskiy not understand this? Why does he want Ukraine to be destroyed completely?

To what degree do you think China will support Russia? The more China supports Russia the more economic pressure will be put on it by Western nations and the more foreign companies will be reluctant to invest further in China. To a certain degree this is happening now, many companies are skittish about further investments in China. Unless Xi isn't looking at this through an economic lens. But its been my observation that China's dealing with other countries has been largely transactional. I don't see where China openly and militarily supporting Russia taking any part of Ukraine is in its interest.
Right now Chinese companies are taking advantage and getting away with selling dual purpose products to Russia. Most major Chinese banks will not process Russian transactions for fear of sanctions from the West.

 

[ZiprHead]

The US and Russian government both have plans for numerous situations.

USSR did not have such plan. And it was not situations. It was your plan to go and simply start nuclear war and the only reason it was not implemented was because USSR got sufficient number of nukes.

Of course they had plans. It would be irresponsible to not do so.

 

[SLD]

With pooty out of the way they will scurry back to Russia quickly.

True. That is why I said NATO should keep praying.

Allow me to state my position. I am neither a Putin admirer nor a Zelenski/NATO admirer. I am non-aligned, being an Indian. Destruction in Ukraine or Russia as well as the travails of soldiers who are fighting the war, pains me equally.

Well, fine. But WADR, your government is one of the primary supporters of Putin and his war machine. You are funding death and destruction in Ukraine.

And being non aligned at a time like this is absurd. It was the failure of nation states to stand up to blatant international aggression that led to WWII and will lead to WWIII.

 

[lpetrich]

How Putin's Police State Leaves Russia Vulnerable To Terrorist Attacks - March 23, 2024 10:54 GMT

The Kremlin casts President Vladimir Putin as something close to a savior, a strong leader who has brought stability and security following the chaos of the Soviet collapse.

The mass-casualty events that have punctuated his nearly 25 years as president or prime minister -- and the recurring images of explosions, flames, and helpless victims desperate to escape harm -- badly undermine that narrative. Instead, analysts say, they tell a story of a leader whose focus on the protection and prolongation of his own power have come at the expense of the security of the people.

Putin’s critics say that more than three decades after the demise of the Soviet Union, Russia remains a country in which the state puts its own interests far above those of its citizens.

and

The government has branded a wide range of peaceful groups and even non-existent organizations “extremists,” from the late opposition leader Aleksei Navalny’s outlawed political and anti-corruption outfits to what the state inaccurately describes as the "international LGBT social movement." It has tried critics on treason charges and sentenced critics of the war in Ukraine to years in prison.

This leaves Russia highly vulnerable to real extremists, analysts say, and to deadly disasters in which corruption, corner-cutting, and negligence cause or exacerbate the effects of avoidable accidents like the fire at the Zimnyaya Vishnya (Winter Cherry) mall in the Siberian city of Kemerovo in March 2018, seven days after Putin was declared the winner of that month's presidential election.

and

Once an attack or a deadly accident has occurred, the strategies and tactics applied by the Russian authorities have frequently exacerbated its effects, leading relatives of victims to accuse Putin’s government of callousness or negligence.

Then mentioning the sinking of nuclear submarine Kursk in the Barents Sea in 2000, and the bungled official responses, responses which caused more casualties, responses to the attack on the Nord-Ost theater in Moscow in 2002, and to the hostage taking in a school in Beslan, North Ossetia in 2004.

The predominance of the priorities of the state and its senior leaders over the interests of citizens is not a new problem: It stretches back to Soviet times and the tsarist era, and it’s a phenomenon that dissidents, rights activists, and opposition politicians say must be reversed if Russia and its people are to thrive.

 

[SLD]

The war can end a lot of different ways. The best way is a pistol to Putin’s brain. By his own hand or otherwise.

I honestly believe Biden and his mad gang is more likely to go out this way.
Russia is going to win, and you are going to lose. That's clear.

Really? How’s that working out for you so far? You’ve been going at it for over two years and the lines haven’t budged much in over a year. Your economy is only doing great in the defense sector. Consumer goods manufactures have suffered.

Your only hope is for a trump victory this fall. Maybe it will happen. But so what if it does? The rest of Europe will continue to supply Ukraine even more, and without US constraints. Even if you do win, What will you gain? Control over some rubble? Genocide and another Holodomor? A Ukrainian guerrilla insurgency? Good luck controlling Ukraine if you do ever manage to get anywhere inside it, but frankly your military incompetence is unlikely to improve anytime soon.

 

[lpetrich]

Putin Boasts Of Russia's Hypersonic Weapons, But A Dozen Scientists In The Field Face Treason Charges

When 75-year-old Russian scientist Anatoly Maslov, a specialist in high-speed aerodynamics, was arrested on treason charges in June 2022, his colleagues were alarmed.

"The persecution of scientists in the field of aviation has become a regular thing in our country," more than 400 of his colleagues wrote in an open letter that has since been deleted.

...
Since 2018, at least 12 specialists in the field of hypersonic aerodynamics have been charged with treason. At least three of the researchers, most of whom are older adults, have died in custody. Like Maslov, many of them have been sentenced to long prison terms, while others have been held for months in pretrial detention.

Is this related to Vladimir Putin's interest in hypersonic weaponry?

"It's a favorite toy of Putin's," Yevgeny Smirnov, a lawyer with the legal-aid organization First Department, which provides defense consulting in cases that allegedly involve state secrets, told RFE/RL. "He has repeatedly announced that only Russia possesses hypersonic weapons."

The cases, all of which are handled by the Moscow headquarters of the Federal Security Service (FSB), have one purpose, Smirnov said: "To demonstrate that all the world's intelligence services are gunning for Russian researchers."

"And our security agencies achieve this goal the only way they know how -- by putting innocent people in prison," he said.

What a theory. Or Vladimir Putin could be suffering from Stalinist paranoia about his underlings.

The accused scientists have all denied revealing classified information, saying their articles and speeches were strictly vetted by in-house security committees at their institutes.

Advocates for the scientists say the FSB simply ignores that fact.

"The FSB operatives arrive at some institute that is connected in some way with hypersonic research and look for researchers who have taken part in international conferences or such programs," lawyer Smirnov said. "Having identified several victims, they prepare allegations that during a conference or international program the scientist supposedly passed on secret information to foreign colleagues who might use it to create weapons for NATO countries."

Many of the cases involve speeches or articles that are at least 10 years old.

The programs involved were often approved by the Russian government during the 2008-12 presidency of Dmitry Medvedev, when Putin was prime minister, Smirnov noted.

Finding these researchers guilty of something that was officially approved?

 

[lpetrich]

'It's All Lies': Supporters Say Petty Politics Lies Behind Treason Conviction Of Ailing Russian Scientist - June 29, 2023 15:57 GMT

Golubkin’s wife, Svetlana Golubkina, wore a T-shirt emblazoned with the words: “Valery Nikolayevich! We Are With You. Truth Is On Our Side.”

“We are going to fight for him. This is 1937 all over again in Russia,” she told journalists after the sentencing, referring to the manufactured treason cases that played a key role in dictator Josef Stalin’s Great Terror. “My husband will not give up and will not [falsely] confess. And we won’t give up either.”

Golubkina said publicity is the family’s only hope of securing her husband’s freedom “before he dies.”

“Only by speaking out!” she said.

Was Zelenskiy Right About Central Asian Leaders 'Fearing' The Kremlin?

Russia Declares Barred Presidential Candidate, Soldiers' Wives Group 'Foreign Agents'

Without naming the countries that they are working for, it seems.

The ministry addded the Put Domoy (The Way Home) movement, which has organized women-led protests in Moscow to bring mobilized men back from Ukraine, to its "foreign agent" list.

The Justice Ministry accused Put Domoy of working to create a "negative image" of Russia and the Russian Army and said it had called for illegal protests.

Wives of Russian men mobilized to fight in Ukraine make up the bulk of the organization's membership.

 

[lpetrich]

Turning to another ex-Soviet Republic, Eurasian Georgia, not the US state, it is having a big kerfluffle over a foreign-agents law.
Georgia parliament overturns veto on foreign agents law

Georgia's MPs have voted to overturn a presidential veto on a contentious “transparency on foreign influence” bill - often dubbed the “foreign agents law” - which has sparked several weeks of protests in the capital Tbilisi.

Under the legislation, media and non-governmental organisations that receive over 20% of their funding from abroad will have to register as “organisations acting in the interest of a foreign power”, submit themselves to stringent audits, or face punitive fines.

The bill was passed in May 14: Civil Georgia | Majority Passes “Foreign Agents” Bill 83-23 in Second Reading - "despite strong opposition from international partners, opposition MPs and politicians, and ongoing massive public protests near the Parliament building." - a "controversial Russian-style" bill.

Back to the BBC. That bill was vetoed by vetoed by pro-Western President Salome Zourabishvili, but that veto was then overridden 84-4 with the opposition abstaining.

Opinion | Georgia foreign agent law threatens path to Europe, away from Russia - The Washington Post - May 2

The future of another former Soviet republic, Georgia, is at a critical moment. As in Ukraine, many citizens, particularly younger people, want closer ties to Europe and freedom from Russian tyranny. But young Georgians confront a government ruled by the Georgian Dream party, founded by former prime minister and oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, which seeks alignment with Russia. This conflict has come to a head, as Georgia’s vibrant civil society groups have filled the streets with protests against a proposed law, borrowed from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, designed to crack down on government opposition.