An interesting bit on the polarization of America

[Loren Pechtel]

People are segregating themselves by political party.

 

[Toni]

Over the many years we’ve lived in this area ( upper Midwest) whenever we’ve considered relocating, especially moving back to one of our home states, politics and weather are usually the biggest impediments. I know the weather thing sounds…counter intuitive but hubby really dislikes hot, humid weather and I’m not much interested in desert living. I really feel more at home in greener landscapes.

Both of us lived in more conservative areas and we have family abs friends in our states of origin. It would be nice to live near by but the politics would kill me..,

 

[Copernicus]

I thought that the main thesis in the report was not well supported, because both families interviewed had moved to Texas because of the job opportunities, not politics per se. They were happy to end up in locations that were more compatible with their politics. I don't doubt the fact that the country is becoming more politically polarized, and it seems reasonable that they would seek to move to more like-minded locations when moving. However, moving is almost never about politics or even taxes. It is usually about economic opportunities or family. It is true that COVID restrictions played a role in the move of the conservative family to Texas, but they probably would never have moved if their business had remained viable in California.

I would really like to know whether those people who move to Texas are making the state redder or bluer. It has been trending blue, but COVID and inflation seem to be working against that trend. So I do expect Texas to remain thoroughly in the red column at least in the near term.

 

[rousseau]

However, moving is almost never about politics or even taxes. It is usually about economic opportunities or family. It is true that COVID restrictions played a role in the move of the conservative family to Texas, but they probably would never have moved if their business had remained viable in California.

Do you have any basis for this belief?

On my paternal side there are 12 cousins. Of those twelve, every single one of them ended up in a region that suited their politics as an adult. Liberals born in a Conservative region all moved to a more Liberal region, Conservatives born in a Conservative region all stayed put. Every single one.

Not a single one crossed political affiliation.

Politics might not always be the primary reason for the move, but it does likely weigh heavily in where someone moves to (or stays).

 

[Bronzeage]

Kind of a click bait headline. "Fleeing to..." sounds like they are being persecuted in their present location. No one "flees" to be more comfortable. They flee to escape hazard or danger and it's seldom something they really wanted to do.

 

[Copernicus]

Politics might not always be the primary reason for the move, but it does likely weigh heavily in where someone moves to (or stays).

But that was essentially my point. When I was hunting for jobs, the politics of the job venue were a factor in choosing where I would try to get employment. However, I had much higher priorities in deciding where I would end up. I expected the article to be making a generalization based on some kind of data, not just interviews with two families in Texas, one conservative and the other liberal. A book on the subject was mentioned, but almost nothing was said about its contents.

 

[rousseau]

Politics might not always be the primary reason for the move, but it does likely weigh heavily in where someone moves to (or stays).

But that was essentially my point. When I was hunting for jobs, the politics of the job venue were a factor in choosing where I would try to get employment. However, I had much higher priorities in deciding where I would end up. I expected the article to be making a generalization based on some kind of data, not just interviews with two families in Texas, one conservative and the other liberal. A book on the subject was mentioned, but almost nothing was said about its contents.

I didn't read the article, but I do question the idea that people don't sort themselves based on political affiliation. That might not always be the consciously stated purpose, but the end-result of the final calculus usually exacerbates polarization. And I think sometimes it is the explicit reason for the move / or not move.

People want to be around like-minded people, and political affiliation plays a huge part in that.

 

[Copernicus]

Politics might not always be the primary reason for the move, but it does likely weigh heavily in where someone moves to (or stays).

But that was essentially my point. When I was hunting for jobs, the politics of the job venue were a factor in choosing where I would try to get employment. However, I had much higher priorities in deciding where I would end up. I expected the article to be making a generalization based on some kind of data, not just interviews with two families in Texas, one conservative and the other liberal. A book on the subject was mentioned, but almost nothing was said about its contents.

I didn't read the article, but I do question the idea that people don't sort themselves based on political affiliation. That might not always be the consciously stated purpose, but the end-result of the final calculus usually exacerbates polarization. And I think sometimes it is the explicit reason for the move / or not move.

People want to be around like-minded people, and political affiliation plays a huge part in that.

I certainly wouldn't dispute that, but you should at least listen to the sound track in the OP. That is what led to my objection to the story headline, and I very much agreed with Bronzeage's reaction to it, as well. It was primarily a puff piece without much of anything to support the title claim that people were baited to click on.

 

[TV and credit cards]

NPR is great at short, low information puff pieces. Aside from the weekend shows, I hardly bother with them anymore.

Well, the grass is always greener somewhere you may have visited for days or even hours than the home you’ve had the time to find all what’s wrong with.
It doesn’t matter though. Go ahead and move to a city with folks of similar political opinion. You could check City-Data. Just saying.
From Democrats and Republicans to liberals and conservatives to group-thinking rugged individualists and argumentative socialists. We’re doomed.

 

[Politesse]

People are segregating themselves by political party.

Gays and other "undesirables" have been doing this for a long time, fleeing the danger and oppression of the Midwest and desert West for New York or San Francisco. It's one of the things that led to a distinct LGBT culture where none might have been otherwise expected. It doesn't entirely surprise me that it would work in the other direction, though it must be a pretty persistent Conservative who cares enough about this nonsense to flee a state that has jobs to get to one that doesn't. Are they actually fleeing to places like Texas with a growing liberal/prosperous sector? Not, like, Mississippi and such?

 

[laughing dog]

This is not really news. People tend to congregate around the like-minded. It does not mean everyone does. I would suspect that it is much more likely to occur within a region (which suburb or town to live in near one's work), but there are hardcore zealots who might move to a completely different region for non-economic or non-family issues.

 

[southernhybrid]

I've lived in over half a dozen different states and the political views of my neighbors never mattered to me. I now live in a neighborhood that is diverse both racially and politically. I like living among people who are a bit different from myself. I think it's healthy. I have read that a lot of people want to live near people who think like them, but I don't think that's healthy.

I've also read that the reason people are moving to places like Texas is due to the lower cost of living. I read a long article about Spokane, Wa. this morning. It's had a huge influx of people from California and other expensive areas, over the past few years, due to the cost of living in Ca. That has driven home prices up about 60%. That's resulted in some people using signs and bumper stickers that say, "Don't move here". Of course real estate prices have increased insanely over the past couple of years. I think part of it is the extremely low interest rates, the fact that a high percentage of homes are being purchased by investors and a lot of people are moving further away from large cities due to the high cost of living in them. Real estate prices have surged in my small city like nothing I've ever seen before. When a home in decent condition goes on the market, it usually sells in 2 or 3 days. If it needs a lot of work, it takes longer. If it's under 150 K and on the less affluent side of town, it's usually sold to an investor, probably to be used as a rental.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Kind of a click bait headline. "Fleeing to..." sounds like they are being persecuted in their present location. No one "flees" to be more comfortable. They flee to escape hazard or danger and it's seldom something they really wanted to do.

You note the blue couple in the article found broken glass in their mailbox?

I'd seriously consider moving if that sort of thing was happening.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Politics might not always be the primary reason for the move, but it does likely weigh heavily in where someone moves to (or stays).

But that was essentially my point. When I was hunting for jobs, the politics of the job venue were a factor in choosing where I would try to get employment. However, I had much higher priorities in deciding where I would end up. I expected the article to be making a generalization based on some kind of data, not just interviews with two families in Texas, one conservative and the other liberal. A book on the subject was mentioned, but almost nothing was said about its contents.

Yeah, that book is on my to-read list.

 

[Copernicus]

Yeah, that book is on my to-read list.

If you read it in the somewhat near future, it would be nice to get your impression of it.

 

[skepticalbip]

The OP makes it sound like the migration is a political decision. People relocate to find better living conditions such as job opportunity, lower taxes, less regulation so better business climate, more personal freedom, lower cost of living, etc.. It just happens that states that have been run by politicians from the right have created conditions that are better for those looking for those things. Politicians from the left that have been running states like more regulations and ever more taxes so have created conditions that those migrating from those states find less satisfactory.

 

[skepticalbip]

People are segregating themselves by political party.

Gays and other "undesirables" have been doing this for a long time, fleeing the danger and oppression of the Midwest and desert West for New York or San Francisco. It's one of the things that led to a distinct LGBT culture where none might have been otherwise expected. It doesn't entirely surprise me that it would work in the other direction, though it must be a pretty persistent Conservative who cares enough about this nonsense to flee a state that has jobs to get to one that doesn't. Are they actually fleeing to places like Texas with a growing liberal/prosperous sector? Not, like, Mississippi and such?

???

Key West, New Orleans, Savannah, etc. (all "southern redneck" areas) have been havens for the gay community since at least the 1960s and likely much earlier.

 

[Politesse]

People are segregating themselves by political party.

Gays and other "undesirables" have been doing this for a long time, fleeing the danger and oppression of the Midwest and desert West for New York or San Francisco. It's one of the things that led to a distinct LGBT culture where none might have been otherwise expected. It doesn't entirely surprise me that it would work in the other direction, though it must be a pretty persistent Conservative who cares enough about this nonsense to flee a state that has jobs to get to one that doesn't. Are they actually fleeing to places like Texas with a growing liberal/prosperous sector? Not, like, Mississippi and such?

???

Key West, New Orleans, Savannah, etc. (all "southern redneck" areas) have been havens for the gay community since at least the 1960s and likely much earlier.

And other major cities, yes. I did not mean to suggest that those two cities were the only places of refuge for LGBT people, though they were the first as far as anyone knows, and became the significant loci of change and activism concerning these issues.

I think the residents of Key West and New Orleans would be deeply surprised to hear themselves described as "rednecks", though. Southern, sure. I note that I didn't say anything about the South, rednecks, or any other racial slurs in my post. Race is not the issue here. Though it is certainly true that it is mostly whites under discussion as political emigrants, I think that is more a reflection of their having the disposable income necessary to effect a voluntary change of state residence than any particular race-based political preference.

 

[lpetrich]

The OP makes it sound like the migration is a political decision. People relocate to find better living conditions such as job opportunity, lower taxes, less regulation so better business climate, more personal freedom, lower cost of living, etc.. It just happens that states that have been run by politicians from the right have created conditions that are better for those looking for those things. Politicians from the left that have been running states like more regulations and ever more taxes so have created conditions that those migrating from those states find less satisfactory.

In effect, people moving to where governments give big handouts to businesses and automatically take the sides of business managements in labor-management disputes, because the only real freedom is the freedom of business managements to do whatever they want regardless of the consequences to anyone and anything else.

Except that the picture is rather different.

2020 Census shows U.S. population grew at slowest pace in history - Washington Post

Here Are the States Americans Don’t Want to Live Anymore in 2022 – Zippia

Although right-wingers gloat about people moving from places like California to places like Texas, which states people move to and which states people move from is a more complicated story. Two states with a lot of people moving away are West Virginia and Mississippi, and those states are supposed to be capitalist utopias.

There are also some blue states that are being moved into, like Washington and Oregon, and purple states like Nevada and Colorado.

 

[lpetrich]

As to where the arrivals move,  Urbanization in the United States gives a clue. To the cities, which trend blue.

Is Population Density the Key to Understanding Voting Behavior? | by Dave Troy | Medium

Has the numbers for the 2012 Obama D - Romney R Presidential race. For density less than 200/mi^2, it's R 60% D 40%. The fractions are equal at 800/mi^2, and reach D 85% R 15% at 36,000/mi^2.

Then numbers for red states vs. blue states as a function of density. The biggest difference was in low-density areas, below about 200/mi^2, but above 700/mi^2, they are very close.

Red States Are Just Underdeveloped Blue States

Historically, one can argue that red states have disproportionately affected election results by delivering a material number of electoral votes — and this is part of our constitutional design. But as cities continue to grow in red states, those cities will become more blue, and ultimately, those states will become more purple, and then blue.

If you follow the red state trend lines, you can clearly see that any dense, fast-growing cities that emerge in red states will be very likely to vote blue. The few that do already exist already vote blue.

Red state voters generally prefer low-density housing, prefer to drive cars, and are sensitive to gas prices. Once population density gets to a certain level, behaviors switch: high-density housing is the norm, public transit becomes more common, and gas use (and price sensitivity) drops. Red state values are incompatible with density.