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2026 Mid-Term Elections

One reason why diesel is disproportionally hit might be the popularity of large trucks, many of them diesels.
A local popularity in the USA is unlikely to be that impactful on global diesel prices.

My understanding is that diesel is disproportionately impacted globally because the feedstocks for diesel were more commonly from the gulf and from Russia, both of which are now fucked up beyond all recovery.

Other sources of crude, and of refining capacity, tended to be more used for lighter (gasoline) fractions, ironically because those were seen as more profitable.

Another effect is the global move towards electric and hybrid cars, which cuts gasoline demand, while having little effect on the demand for diesel. This is also moving auto manufacturing strongly towards China and away from North America.

Large diesel "trucks" (by which I assume you mean Utes or Pickup Trucks used as private vehicles, rather than commercial goods haulage vehicles) were very popular here until recently, but with diesel now pushing A$3/litre, I am increasingly seeing passengers who are telling me that they are first-time bus users, because of the cost of diesel for their utes and fourbies.

The number of hybrid and electric cars (mostly Chinese models such as BYD, but with a strong leavening of Teslas) is far higher now than before March, by my guesstimate as a professional driver who watches traffic all day.

We are currently on a road trip from Queensland to Victoria, and have taken @gmbteach's hybrid Kona (5.3l/100km) rather than my 3 litre V6 Toyota (>10l/100km). Both run on 91RON ULP, which is ~A$2.40/l at the moment; We put just over A$50 in the tank today, after driving from Gunnedah to Parkes, a distance of 391km.
 
Marist poll shows Democrat Turek with 8 point lead in Iowa, at 50% too. If the Democrat won Iowa by 8 pts, the Democrats win 300+ seats in the House. I don't believe the Democrats are going to win 300+ seats in the House.

It does make one wonder if this poll is similar to the infamous Selzer poll last election. Selzer swung and missed in a state she was the gold standard in polling on. Iowa is a diesel state though, so maybe that is entering the chat room.
Poll said:
A plurality of Iowa registered voters (43%) say their congressional vote is mostly a vote against President Trump rather than a vote for him (22%). More than one in three (35%) report Trump is not much of a factor in their vote. Of those who say President Trump is not a factor, a majority approves of his job performance.
43% is very very very bad, though maybe impacted by the polling pool. It would be helpful, however, to keep in mind that people polling in protest may 'hold their nose' while voting. Protest polling is not warrantied on the ballot. But 43% of those polled said they were voting against Trump, which means only 7% or so of the 35% (1/5) who say Trump isn't an issue needs to vote for Turek. That is a low percentage, that is a manageable percentage. Again, if this holds, the Democrats are looking at a potential super-majority in the House. Again, one poll, one possibly outlier poll. Don't get too excited. One thing I'm seeing at a different board are long time conservatives who are relenting that GOP has gone mad, but the Democrats have swung so far to the left. They still have the right-wing false news commentary hooks in their mouths.

Meanwhile in Ohio, Vivek (to be fair Acton too, but she actually benefits more with it being higher) wants Columbus to do a gas tax holiday for 90 days.... you know... because he needs voters not thinking about gasoline prices while voting.

Finally, is the glass ceiling now 60? :oops:

Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Montana are turning lighter shades of red in polling. Unless the Democrats have a magic Blue Dog candidate in Louisiana, I can't imagine LA going blue. Montana wouldn't be going Blue, it'd be going purple for the Independent. If one thought 56 was ridiculous, then 59 would be ludicrous. 52 was ludicrous a while ago, and it might get back to being ludicrous in October. There is a long period of time between now and the election, though mail-in ballots are going out (and being delivered?) already. If gasoline prices temper in October, it might not happen soon enough for Trump.
 
Do YoU CoNdEmn HaMaS!!!!!?????oneoneoneone
You mean to ridicule, but why do you think Hamas should not be condemned?
Not only are they islamofascists who oppress their own people, they are also terrorists who have caused a lot of misery for both Israelis and Palestinians. Especially during the so-called Second Intifada and after they took power in Gaza. And perhaps most importantly, Hamas is responsible for starting this war.

But you islamoleftists love to blame Israel for defending itself.
 
Do YoU CoNdEmn HaMaS!!!!!?????oneoneoneone
You mean to ridicule, but why do you think Hamas should not be condemned?
Not only are they islamofascists who oppress their own people, they are also terrorists who have caused a lot of misery for both Israelis and Palestinians. Especially during the so-called Second Intifada and after they took power in Gaza. And perhaps most importantly, Hamas is responsible for starting this war.

But you islamoleftists love to blame Israel for defending itself.
You don't know what you're talking about. Even a lot of Jewish leaders are condemning what Netanyahu is doing. It's not hatred of Israel or love of Hamas, it's that Nettie is committing war crimes, just like our dear leader.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/jewish-people-and-israel

Prominent Jewish Figures Call On World Leaders to ‘Refuse’ Complicity in Israeli Crimes in Gaza, West Bank​

The United Nations and member states must “use relevant leverage, including targeted sanctions on governmental bodies and individuals responsible for violations of international law,” reads a new letter.​


With the Palestinian news agency in Gaza reporting that Israel has violated the 12-day-old ceasefire agreement with Hamas at least 80 times and killed at least 80 people in the exclave, more than 460prominent Jewish artists, writers, rights advocates, and policymakers on Wednesday called on world leaders—including at the United Nations—to intensify the international pressure that helped push Israel to sign the fragile truce deal.

“It was international pressure that helped to secure this ceasefire, and it must be sustained to guarantee that it endures,” reads a letter organized by Jews Demand Action. “The ceasefire must be the beginning, not the end. The risk of reverting to a political reality of indifference to occupation and permanent conflict is too great. This same pressure must be continued to deliver a new era of peace and justice for all—Palestinians and Israelis alike.”

RECOMMENDED...
Israeli soldiers and settlers in West Bank

Amnesty Warns Israel Is ‘Brazenly Expanding Its Annexation Agenda’ in Occupied West Bank​

World Leaders Speak At The 79th Session Of The United Nations General Assembly In New York

‘Drop the Genocide 20’: Activists Launch Campaign to Exclude Officials Behind Biden Gaza Policy From Democratic Politics​

The letter was initiated by former Israeli Knesset Member Avrum Burg, former Israeli peace negotiator Daniel Levy, Israeli-American activist Libby Lenkinski, Belgian former Member of European Parliament Simone Susskind, US columnist and journalist Peter Beinart, and UK activist Em Hilton.

The signatories said that they “deplore the fact that Israeli leaders have repeatedly taken to the world stage to declare” that their bombardment of Gaza—which has killed more than 68,000 Palestinians and decimated nearly all housing units across the exclave along with hospitals, schools, and other civilian infrastructure—has been “committed in the name of the Jewish people.”

“As Jews and as human beings, we declare: Not in our name,” reads the letter, which was also signed by actor and writer Wallace Shawn, British filmmaker Jonathan Glazer, Israeli journalist Yuval Abraham, and actor Hannah Einbinder. “Not in the name of our heritage, our faith, or our moral tradition. The monumental scale of the killing and destruction, the forced displacement, the deliberate withholding of life-sustaining necessities, and the ongoing criminal actions in the West Bank must end and never be repeated.”

“It is time to do everything possible to definitively end the Israeli government’s collective punishment of the Palestinians and to pursue peace for the sake of both peoples.”

Among the letter’s demands is one calling on UN Secretary-General António Guterres and other world leaders to “refute false accusations of antisemitism that abusively deploy our collective history to tarnish those with whom we stand together in the pursuit of peace and justice.”

Calls to destroy Palestinian life “are not Jewish values nor are they guided by the lessons we draw from our peoples’ history,” they wrote. “Instead we see in many of those standing up for Palestinian rights a reflection of the people who stood with Jews in our times of need. Our solidarity with Palestinians is not a betrayal of Judaism, then, but a fulfillment of it. When our sages taught that to destroy one life is to destroy an entire world, they did not carve exceptions for Palestinians.”

The group called on other Jewish people to sign the letter.


The letter notes that the ceasefire signed on October 10 “makes no reference to the West Bank,” where more than 3,200 Palestinians have been injured in attacks, including by Israeli settlers, this year. Israeli leaders have promoted the creation of the E1 settlement, which would cut off East Jerusalem from the rest of the illegally occupied territory and make it impossible for Palestinians to establish a state with the city as its capital.

Masked settlers in recent days attacked Palestinians civilians who were harvesting olives in the town of Turmus Ayya, with one clubbing a 55-year-old woman named Umm Saleh Abu Alia, who had to be hospitalized.

The letter was addressed to Guterres and other world leaders and representatives of UN member states as the International Court of Justice ruled that Israel must provide for the “basic needs” of Palestinians in Gaza and allow aid into the exclave. In 2024 the ICJ issued a nonbinding opinion saying the occupation was illegal—in keeping with long-established international law—and calling on settlers to leave the West Bank.

The signatories affirmed their “belief in the universality of justice and the fair and equal application of international law,” writing: “We have not forgotten that so many of the laws, charters, and conventions established to safeguard and protect all human life were created in response to the Holocaust. Those safeguards have been relentlessly violated by Israel.”

“Accountability for the Israeli leadership’s grievous violations of international law is necessary,” they wrote. “It is time to do everything possible to definitively end the Israeli government’s collective punishment of the Palestinians and to pursue peace for the sake of both peoples.”

The European Union’s foreign ministers paused sanctions against Israel in response to the ceasefire agreement, a decision that was criticized by rights advocates this week.

“That is the last thing that we should be doing, because this is exactly the moment when you need to keep the pressure on. Because we all know that it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion that this plan will be implemented,” Nathalie Tocci, a former adviser to two EU foreign policy officials, told The Guardian. “I fear that... European governments and institutions will be... reverting back to the sort of old, familiar patterns.”

The letter sent on Wednesday called on the UN and member states to:

  • Respect and abide by the decisions of the International Court of Justice, apply arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court, and resist efforts to unduly pressure and influence and prevent the workings of both courts;
  • To refuse any complicity in continued crimes and violations of international law against Palestinians by Israel, including by ending the provision of arms and other relevant goods and services, and to use relevant leverage, including targeted sanctions on governmental bodies and individuals responsible for violations of international law; and
  • To ensure that humanitarian assistance reaches all Palestinians in Gaza at the scale that is commensurate to their vital need, that the blockade is lifted and materials for reconstruction enter, and that there is a full Israeli military withdrawal.
Al Jazeera reported on Wednesday that Palestinians in Gaza “are still going hungry” despite the ceasefire. In August, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) declared famine in parts of the exclave, and more than 450 people have starved to death as a result of the near-total blockade Israel began imposing in October 2023.

There is now only one entry point open for aid trucks at the Karem Abu Salem crossing, reported Al Jazeera.

“When it comes to the northern part of Gaza, none of the crossings have been opened. For more than 50 days now, the Israeli military has imposed a complete blockade on these crossings, and none of the trucks are coming to this area,” wrote Hani Mahmoud, a correspondent in Gaza City. “It continues to be very difficult for people here, particularly those returning to their homes in Gaza City and the northern areas. Apart from the fact that they are lacking access to water, there’s no access to proper food.

“Whatever is available is from business owners, the traders, who have been given permits from the Israeli military to get commercial items into the Gaza Strip,” Mahmoud reported. “Despite the illusion that aid is ‘pouring’ into Gaza, the reality on the ground is different, and people are still going hungry, unable to access food and water.”

Levy said that “Israel’s actions against Palestinians are antithetical to the Jewish heritage we hold dear.”

“We must end this shame and reclaim a better future for Jews and Palestinians alike,” he said. “We are calling on world leaders to reject complicity in the status quo of occupation, apartheid, and Israel’s genocidal doom-loop towards the Palestinians, and ensure respect for international law and an end to impunity. That is the only path towards hope and sustainable peace.”

The signatories added that despite the ceasefire, they “shall not rest” until the agreement “carries forward into an end of occupation and apartheid.”

“We write in the hope that this initiative further emboldens a moment of renewed Jewish commitment to act with conscience and compassion,” they wrote. “We vow to work urgently to achieve equality, justice, and freedom for Palestinians and Israelis.”
 
Israel is a rogue State with a genocidal leader.
But you know what? The Israeli people are WHITE, not some off color Muzzie towelheads!
Every ignorant racist southerner is cheering them on.
 
Israel is a rogue State with a genocidal leader....
Israel isn't a State of the US and not the topic of this thread. As much as some people have to ram their hobby horses into every thread.
True, but the one who rides his hobby horse was criticizing some candidates who are running in the Midterms so it was related to the thread.

Who cares if some are far left? The Democratic Party has always been a big tent party with people with many different perspectives, unlike the party of sheep who bow to their dear leader. But, it appears as if even a few of the sheep are turning away from their master. Who woulda thunk it?
 
Israel is a rogue State with a genocidal leader....
Israel isn't a State of the US and not the topic of this thread. As much as some people have to ram their hobby horses into every thread.
True, but the one who rides his hobby horse was criticizing some candidates who are running in the Midterms so it was related to the thread.
Understood. It is just that if the Democrats take 55 seats in the Senate this November, it won't be because of *blah blah* Israel or *blah blah* Hamas. Israel might matter for some Americans when it comes to voting, but it niche issue for US politics.
 
Republicans may have gerrymandered their way into a Texas-sized Latino problem.
“The S&P 500 looks great, but our wallets don't.”
They can only gerrymander and be dicks at the same time so much. Pissed off voters are going to come out of some end. It's like Howard Walowitz' mom in the dressing room. Bad shit's gonna come squirting out somewhere.
 
Republicans may have gerrymandered their way into a Texas-sized Latino problem.
“The S&P 500 looks great, but our wallets don't.”
They can only gerrymander and be dicks at the same time so much. Pissed off voters are going to come out of some end. It's like Howard Walowitz' mom in the dressing room. Bad shit's gonna come squirting out somewhere.
I've seen posters on WaPo and/or MSNOW say they plan on voting for Democrats for the first time in their lives. Took them long enough. So, maybe gerrymandering isn't going to help this time. My district is extremely gerrymandered, always has been and it will be amazing if the Dem running, who I met and is very smart and energetic should win. I've lived in my house for almost 30 years and this is the first time I've even thought there might be a chance for a Dem to win my district.
 
if the Democrats take 55 seats in the Senate this November, it won't be because of *blah blah* Israel or *blah blah* Hamas
No, it will be due to all the flying pigs.

If a democratic majority is seated in the House on January 3rd, 2027, it will be no small miracle. Getting 51 Senate seats is a naive hope, though winning that many elections may not be.
I predict that if Dems “win” (get the most votes for) anything in this fall’s election, there will arise an extremely important emergency that requires martial law to “stabilize” things, at least until Trump dies.
 
if the Democrats take 55 seats in the Senate this November, it won't be because of *blah blah* Israel or *blah blah* Hamas
No, it will be due to all the flying pigs.

If a democratic majority is seated in the House on January 3rd, 2027, it will be no small miracle. Getting 51 Senate seats is a naive hope, though winning that many elections may not be.
I predict that if Dems “win” (get the most votes for) anything in this fall’s election, there will arise an extremely important emergency that requires martial law to “stabilize” things, at least until Trump dies.
Missouri does worry me as being a catalyst for those actions. We'll see. At least they GOP is spending money on the elections. So they it is at least worth it to try.
 
So they <believe> it is at least worth it to try.
It’s no biggie for them to blow a few billion. And a few more if that’s not enough. They can get it back from our treasury in most cases, even without the wins. Not one single GOP mega donor is ever going to have to change their lifestyle for lack of whatever they donated.
Their only possible problem might be the increasing ineffectiveness of dollars spent. People feel what they feel no matter how many ads they see blaming it on Obama and immigrants, or worse, telling struggling people they’re thriving.
 
Israel is a rogue State with a genocidal leader.
But you know what? The Israeli people are WHITE, not some off color Muzzie towelheads!
Every ignorant racist southerner is cheering them on.
The Israelis are not as white as many seem to think. We have this image of the wars from 1948 to Yom Kippur War and Israeli soliders looking 'European' but that is not longer the case.
 
It took a while for the gas prices to become more influenced by Trump's actions, but it is here, and it is having a notable impact on polling.
article said:
Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates by 14 points among likely voters in the upcoming midterm elections, according to the latest Economist / YouGov Poll. 52% of likely voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while only 38% would vote for the Republican candidate.

YouGov also puts NC and GA into solid blue territory, both Cooper and Ossoff at 50+% and >10 pt lead. Florida is 45 a piece. The question becomes, is Donalds a bad enough of a candidate to cost Florida the Senate seat.
 
When billionaires stop paying for airtime it will presage the attempt to refuse to seat the winners. J3 might need to be bigger than J6, if not as violent.
 
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