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2020 Election Predictions

SLD said:
... Republican voter suppression tactics are very carefully targeted to African American voting precincts. The demographics are used to ensure that long lines will form in their regions and not in predominantly white areas. Say thank you to the Supreme Court for gutting the Voting Rights Act.
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RBG was still on the Court while the Voting Rights Act was being gutted 5-4. John Roberts is a malicious Republican hack of the Karl Rove ilk, who pretends to be a hominid only when the GOP doesn't need his vote.

SCOTUS has to be packed to size 13; packing to just 11 will do no good, at least in the near term.
 
Betfair showed Biden at 67% yesterday, but now he's fallen to 65.4%

Just a noise blip perhaps, but enough to make me even more fearful than usual.
 
WL Election Index for this year - has tabs for the Electoral College and the Senate and House races. Nice work of getting all that data in one place.

538's predictions are "final and no longer updating."

I checked the other forecasting sites, and they give a bit more to the Republicans than what I'd posted yesterday. But not much. Typically a fraction of a percent.

Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter | FiveThirtyEight - Trump has a 10% chance of winning, and 10% is not 0%.

Final Forecast: Democrats Have A 3-In-4 Chance Of Flipping The Senate | FiveThirtyEight

From 538's estimated probabilities, the Democrats have a chance of flipping an average of 5.6 Republican-held seats. Conversely, the Republicans have a chance of flipping an average of 1.15 Democratic-held seats. The Democrats thus gain 4.45 seats, giving them a predicted seat count of 51.45.

Final Forecast: Democrats Are Clear Favorites To Maintain Control Of The House | FiveThirtyEight - 97% chance of them doing so.
 
 
And America again calls on its minorities to save itself from stupid white people that yearn for the good ole days that never actually existed.

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Florida is a toss-up. With the Covid-19 cases lower is Arizona, they don't seem as upset with Trump now, but Biden can still take the state on the coat tails of Mark Kelly. FL, NC can help end this quickly! I think Ohio is a lost cause.
 
I like the prediction of this staunch conservative, who thinks Biden will win and the Dems will take back the Senate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/11/02/henry-olsen-2020-president-congress-election-predictions/?arc404=true


Democrats need not fear. This, my sixth published biennial election prediction essay, is perhaps my easiest: Former vice president Joe Biden will win comfortably unless we experience the greatest polling failure in modern history. Democrats will also gain control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House. While not the landslide that some hope for, Democrats will simultaneously control the presidency and both houses of Congress for only the third time since Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980. That alone is a historic achievement that will give them the upper hand to determine the next stage of our ongoing national crisis.
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Trump’s job approval ratings show this. Historically, presidents who run for reelection receive a share of the popular vote that is remarkably close to their final job approval rating. The RealClearPolitics polling average has tracked Trump’s job approval throughout his presidency. He is the first president to have never received a 50 percent rating; indeed, he has never come close. Trump’s highest marks came this year between March 26 and April 2, when he topped 47 percent. As of Sunday morning, his job approval stood at 45 percent in the RealClearPolitics average. Given that there won’t be as much third-party voting this time around, that just won’t be good enough to win.
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Despite all of these obstacles, Trump still had an outside shot in late September. His job approval ratings had been steadily climbing from their mid-July nadir and stood at roughly 45 percent on the eve of the first presidential debate. His task was difficult but clear: make the case that he deserved a second term despite all that had happened, and raise doubts about Biden’s ability to do better. Most political analysts believe that if Trump loses the popular vote by three points or less, he could still win the electoral college. To do that, he needed to get his approval rating above 47 percent. Instead, at that Sept. 29 debate, Trump displayed a level of boorishness that was shocking even for him. His rise halted, and his approval ratings dropped back. Trump’s second debate performance was more measured, but the damage was done.
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He gives a lot more details in the articles but I think the primary point is that no president has ever won a second term with ratings as low as Trump's. Hope he's right!

He also predicts that the Dems will increase their numbers in the House.

If Biden wins by eight or more points nationally, Democrats should carry both of those Republican-held Senate seats. Biden should very narrowly carry Georgia if he wins by seven overall, but Georgia requires senators to win at least 50 percent of the vote to win the seat in November. If no one does that, a runoff is held in January between the top two finishers. Georgia is holding two Senate elections on Tuesday, one of which is a special election with multiple candidates, and I think both races will go to a runoff. In the other race, if Biden wins nationally by nine points or more, Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff should capture his seat outright. If Biden wins by six or less, Trump is likely to carry Georgia and Republican incumbent David Perdue should prevail.

House races strongly favor the Democrats because of the overall national climate. House Democrats carried the national vote in 2018 by roughly eight points, and Biden should win almost all of the 40 seats they gained from Republicans in that election. The former vice president is also likely to win many of the House districts Republicans kept but that Trump won narrowly in 2016. There are a few heavily Republican or GOP-leaning seats that Republicans will take back, but the number will pale next to the total Democrats pick up. As with the national race, most of the seats Democrats will gain are in suburban areas with large numbers of college-educated voters who are abandoning Trump’s GOP in droves.
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The link is very long and of course, this prediction could be wrong, but I have to give a little credit to a Republican who admits that the election will most likely go to the Dems.
 
Damn it! Looking at the Minnesota polling data, of which there isn't too much, it looks too much like 2016.

And then that gives us this, another 269 tie: Which means if Biden loses Minnesota, he needs Arizona or North Carolina or Georgia or Florida. This is where the Nebraska district would become huge, assuming no faithless electors.

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As no "November surprise" presents itself, Biden's chance is creeping up, according to Betfair. Several hours ago it was down to 63%, but is now fluctuating between 68% and 69%.

This is about the same chance Betfair shows for victory in Pennsylvania, which remains key to a Biden victory. If Biden loses PA, he needs to make up for it with AZ (55%), NC (50%) or FL (40%).

(If Biden loses TWO of the non-Ohio Rust Belt swing states — say PA and MI — bend over and kiss your ass good-bye.)
 
Don2 (Don1 Revised) said:
The Republicans have a lot of structural advantages: gerrymandering, electoral college takeover, higher frequency of disqualified Democrat votes, higher frequency of purging Democrat voters, an amazing propaganda machine that hasn't peaked yet, foreign intervention, hypocrites willing to cheat, conservative justice courts at all levels, an electoral federal map that is biased toward low population states, a sensationalist for-profit media willing to call states for Trump first but urban voting takes longer and people leave after media declarations, and we don't even know yet all the changes that are afoot...

So Trump 272.
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I still stand by this post.

Also, after hearing Trump say he is going to the Supreme Court to stop counting, this just reinforces what I wrote re hypocrisy, cheating, propaganda and courts. I bet they stole some ballots, they will be found, and the courts will block them or a similar scenario.

Anyway, he declared victory. He is pushing the center so what he ends up doing will be normalized.
 
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