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2020 Election Results

zorq said:
I suspect that car jackers in a world of universally self driven cars would be less interested in the cars and more interested in the contents of the car.

1. Consider that every single self driving car is GPS enabled and probably linked to the mobile data network making them all essentially LoJacked. It would take some sophisticated equipment or a relatively highly skilled criminal to jam or disable that equipment. This means that there is a high cost of entry into this car theft field of criminal endeavors.
2. Also consider that reconnecting a stolen car like this to the network registered to another driver would be extremely difficult, so the only reason to want the vehicle itself would be for it's value as scrap/parts.
Even if cars in this future world are using more expensive parts like lithium batteries, I don't see a lot of incentive there for actual car theft.

Which means that a jaywalker car-jacker might be more akin to a mugger who only wants the driver's personal effects. One of the biggest advantages that current drivers have which dissuade car-jackers is the fact that they are ALL actively in control of a dangerous weapon. But driverless cars are so safe they are no longer able to be used as weapons. So stopping a car just to demand the wallet becomes much more accessible from the perspective of the criminal.

More likely though, I think driverless delivery vehicles will be the target of choice for a jaywalking car-jacker. Stop the truck by standing in the road while your friends break into the cargo compartment and run off with the goodies.
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Security guards are much cheaper than drivers. Particularly if they're only deployed in a random selection of vehicles as a deterrent.
 
zorq said:
I suspect that car jackers in a world of universally self driven cars would be less interested in the cars and more interested in the contents of the car.

1. Consider that every single self driving car is GPS enabled and probably linked to the mobile data network making them all essentially LoJacked. It would take some sophisticated equipment or a relatively highly skilled criminal to jam or disable that equipment. This means that there is a high cost of entry into this car theft field of criminal endeavors.
2. Also consider that reconnecting a stolen car like this to the network registered to another driver would be extremely difficult, so the only reason to want the vehicle itself would be for it's value as scrap/parts.
Even if cars in this future world are using more expensive parts like lithium batteries, I don't see a lot of incentive there for actual car theft.

Which means that a jaywalker car-jacker might be more akin to a mugger who only wants the driver's personal effects. One of the biggest advantages that current drivers have which dissuade car-jackers is the fact that they are ALL actively in control of a dangerous weapon. But driverless cars are so safe they are no longer able to be used as weapons. So stopping a car just to demand the wallet becomes much more accessible from the perspective of the criminal.

More likely though, I think driverless delivery vehicles will be the target of choice for a jaywalking car-jacker. Stop the truck by standing in the road while your friends break into the cargo compartment and run off with the goodies.
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My driving partner tonight told me the story of how he was robbed while delivering pizzas. He feels much safer testing an autonomous vehicle. Sure, someone could block us in and rob us of our personal possessions, a laptop, and the contents of the vehicle. They'd be on camera from multiple angles, but they could probably pull it off. If they wanted to steal the actual car? Hmm...I cannot tell you precisely how bad that would turn out, but it would be pretty stupid on their part.
 
EXCLUSIVE: Listen to the full 40-minute Rudy Giuliani phone call with a Ukrainian presidential aide

(CNN)Never-before-heard audio, obtained exclusively by CNN, shows how former President Donald Trump's longtime adviser Rudy Giuliani relentlessly pressured and coaxed the Ukrainian government in 2019 to investigate baseless conspiracies about then-candidate Joe Biden.

The audio is of a July 2019 phone call between Giuliani, US diplomat Kurt Volker, and Andriy Yermak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The call was a precursor to Trump's infamous call with Zelensky, and both conversations later became a central part of Trump's first impeachment.
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Full audio available in the link.

Giuliani sounds like a mob boss.
 
2020 Post-Election Analysis - Democratic Party - full.pdf
Our findings:
  1. Voters of color are persuasion voters who need to be convinced
  2. Republican attempts to brand Democrats as "radicals" worked
  3. Polling was a huge problem - even after 2016 adjustments
  4. COVID-19 affected everything
  5. Year-round organizing worked, as did cross-Party collaboration
  6. Our hopes for 2020 were just too high
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About the first one, non-honky voters are far from alike, and they have a sizable range of concerns.

About the second one,
“This election, Republicans tended to reach people and connect at an emotional level and Dems tried to connect with people at an intellectual level.” – National media consultant

“The primary problem with Defund was not Defund, but the lack of an economic message. We became the party of shutting down the economy, the party of wearing masks, the party of taking kids out of school – not the party of solutions and science.” – Major Democratic funder

"Republicans were going to churches and having pastors spread misinformation that Democrats were baby-killers, that we were in favor of killing babies right before a mother was giving birth, they were showing very graphic images... [W]hen you hear it enough times, you start to believe it.” – Former Rep.Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
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Some Republicans opposed Rep. Xochitl Torres Small with the slogan "Say No to Xocialism". Republicans called just about every Democrat a socialist who wanted to defund the police.

About the third one, 'The myth of the "shy Trump voter"' - 'In 2020, pollsters reported that while Trump voters were not "shy", they also did not answer surveys and were consequently massively undercounted'

"In recent months, pollsters and academics have theorized that the COVID-19 pandemic led Democrats to be overrepresented in some polls - because Democrats are more likely to work remotely than Republicans and their anti-Trump energy made them more likely to answer surveys - further exacerbating non-response bias issues"

"Polling misfires in 2020 laid bare a challenge that the survey research industry has feared for decades: there is a systematic difference between people who take surveys and those who do not"

About the fourth one,
  • The decision to stop canvassing and halt most in-person voter contact activities was weathered well by campaigns that were innovative - making the pivot to virtual tactics quickly and later finding ways to be physically present in their districts with socially-distanced events
  • Campaigns that were unable to rely on virtual campaigning to reach voters - either due to broadband constraints, local expectations about in-person outreach, a dearth of creativity, or a combination of factors - concluded the lack of canvassing was a critical factor in their loss or tighter-than-expected margin
  • Vote-by-mail education and ballot chase became an exponentially larger budget priority for independent efforts in particular, with some organizations investing tens of millions of dollars in these efforts
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Even though it was evident by the middle of 2020 that as long as everybody stayed outdoors and were well-masked, they were likely safe.

About the fifth one, "Races that did not have the benefit of longer-term infrastructure investments - voter registration, continual in- person organizing and outreach - suffered most" -- like what AOC said about "campaign malpractice".

About the sixth one,
“Our anchoring assumption is that we should’ve just kept everything that we got in 2018 and that was reinforced by the polls. But if you go down deeper at what seats we lost, we’re basically losing seats we shouldn’t have had.” – Veteran national political strategist

“We always think that if turnout is up, that’s going to be beneficial for us. That’s not the case, Republicans vote too and they’re doing a very good job at it. So, when turnout is up, we need to ask who instead of just being excited about it.” – NC political operative
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Is the first quote saying that some of the 2018 victories were unsustainable?
 
ZiprHead said:
Ford said:
ZiprHead said:
View attachment 33971
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Just an FYI...

We do have woods here. No unicorns to be found, but there's some pretty decent forests.
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But are they foggy? ;)
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Fog is rare in Arizona, not unheard of. I've been in fog in Arizona.

Minus the unicorns the only problem I have with the picture is the road curvature doesn't look right. The woods look perfectly reasonable for the high elevation areas near Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon.
 
Donna Imam on Twitter: "THREAD: The 2020 Democratic Congressional race-loss postmortem that arrived yesterday corroborates our conclusion presented back on 15th Dec. 2020: Democrats lack strong economic solutions for working Americans.

However⬇️is inconsistent with our data: (links)" / Twitter
referring to
'Republican attempts to brand Democrats as "radicals" worked'

The closest thing that the Republicans ever did to that was their "autopsy" of 2013. But Trump disregarded that and he nevertheless won. But his reaction to his loss shows him to be a very sore loser, and those Republicans who want voting restrictions are also showing themselves to be sore losers. Or else they cringe in fear of the Trumpies in their base.

She did an analysis of some 2020 Congressional races in 2020 Texas US Congressional Race Analysis with Donna Imam - YouTube

Donna Imam on Twitter: "I analyzed all 10 targeted Texas US Congressional races to uncover why EVERY SINGLE ONE was LOST, and if we don't do this (link) we could lose our slim majority in the house in 2022. (link)" / Twitter
 
ZiprHead said:
Ford said:
ZiprHead said:
View attachment 33971
Click to expand...

Just an FYI...

We do have woods here. No unicorns to be found, but there's some pretty decent forests.
Click to expand...

But are they foggy? ;)
Click to expand...
I've gone thru a patch of fog thick enough that we debated pulling off the I-10 between Tucson and Phoenix one morning. Instead we cautiously tailed an 18 wheeler. I've seen worse in other place, but it was pretty bad then.

Maybe the horns could be put on Gila Monsters ;)
 
funinspace said:
ZiprHead said:
But are they foggy? ;)
Click to expand...
I've gone thru a patch of fog thick enough that we debated pulling off the I-10 between Tucson and Phoenix one morning. Instead we cautiously tailed an 18 wheeler. I've seen worse in other place, but it was pretty bad then.

Maybe the horns could be put on Gila Monsters ;)
Click to expand...

I have hit fog bad enough to make me take the next exit because nobody knew how to drive--full speed ahead when nothing above 25 would have been safe. Then I couldn't safely get into work because everyone was driving too fast to safely make the left turn into the parking lot. I finally ended up using a bunch of right turns to get back to the office on the other side of the street--this was long before Google and I didn't know any of the streets out there. (Mesa, suburb of Phoenix.)
 
Loren Pechtel said:
funinspace said:
ZiprHead said:
But are they foggy? ;)
Click to expand...
I've gone thru a patch of fog thick enough that we debated pulling off the I-10 between Tucson and Phoenix one morning. Instead we cautiously tailed an 18 wheeler. I've seen worse in other place, but it was pretty bad then.

Maybe the horns could be put on Gila Monsters ;)
Click to expand...

I have hit fog bad enough to make me take the next exit because nobody knew how to drive--full speed ahead when nothing above 25 would have been safe. Then I couldn't safely get into work because everyone was driving too fast to safely make the left turn into the parking lot. I finally ended up using a bunch of right turns to get back to the office on the other side of the street--this was long before Google and I didn't know any of the streets out there. (Mesa, suburb of Phoenix.)
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Well, at least you didn't crash into 24th and E. Van Buren... (AZ State Psychiatric Hospital)
 
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