steve_bank
Diabetic retinopathy and poor eyesight. Typos ...
The takeaway is that there is a slight shift in power if republicans get the house, but we remain a pretty much 50/50 political split.
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2022 Midterm Elections - Results and Post Mortem
- Thread starter Derec
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If republicans were really stupid enough to make Trump speaker it would be a spectral to behold. When he wasn't golfing or watching TV Trump would be on a vendetta against members of his own party. You could even see some moderates become democrats to get rid of him.
Derec
Contributor
Moreover, even at coin toss 50-50, probability of getting 219 or more drops to 5%. Which means even in the unlikely case Dems hold the House, they will be unlikely to have any wiggle room.
GOP is also only likely to have a thin margin. Working from the same numbers for called races as above, and assuming coin tosses, GOP has 88% to have at least 218, 76% to have at least 219, still 60% to have at least 220, but 41% to have at least 221 and only 24% for 222 or more.
Imagine if someone like Pete Buttigieg said on FOX news it would be a terrible idea if the Republicans elected Trump as Speaker, followed by a few tweets from The Squad saying it would be the end of America...
Then they would elect Trump in a disasterously self-destructive move to own the libs.
Are there 10 moderate republicans left in the House who would switch sides, or at least become independent, to get rid of Trump?
repoman
Contributor
What I don't get about Kari Lake is that to guarantee a high turnout of rabid MAGA she needed to only lay it on to a small degree and then pretend (wink wink for the MAGA base) to not be that extreme to the general non MAGA electorate.
This would have still gotten most of the MAGAs to vote for her, the tacit understanding that she is a smart MAGA (oxymoron?) riding the line til in power. I am sure most here are happy she seems not to know how to dog whistle.
I still think my joke about her doing testosterone and cocaine might be true. Being that roid raging and grandiose is interesting in small doses, but she got way too one note - only Trump could get away that in 2016 and by 2020 it was old. And she dragged down the Repubs for the senate as well.
This would have still gotten most of the MAGAs to vote for her, the tacit understanding that she is a smart MAGA (oxymoron?) riding the line til in power. I am sure most here are happy she seems not to know how to dog whistle.
I still think my joke about her doing testosterone and cocaine might be true. Being that roid raging and grandiose is interesting in small doses, but she got way too one note - only Trump could get away that in 2016 and by 2020 it was old. And she dragged down the Repubs for the senate as well.
Swammerdami
Squadron Leader
I'm undecided. If the Speaker vote is between Pelosi and Trump, should we hope a few Rs defect and make Nancy Speaker again?
Or would it be better for the Ds to throw all their support behind Trump, make him Speaker, and let the Orange Laughingstock be on full display for all the world to laugh at?
Or would it be better for the Ds to throw all their support behind Trump, make him Speaker, and let the Orange Laughingstock be on full display for all the world to laugh at?
Swammerdami
Squadron Leader
"Slight change"??
The J6 Committee uncovered and published details of a major plot of treason and sedition.
If the House changes hands — putting some of those very traitors in a position of power — much of the J6 work will be undone. Instead expect the House to focus on trumped-up "scandals" and the impeachment of Joe Biden. There may even be more hearings on Benghazi.
And the Rs will use devices like the Debt Ceiling to hold the country hostage.
The "Big Red Wave" didn't happen, but loss of the House is still disastrous. (Fivethirtyeight.com isn't updating its Election results. What is the present status of the 18 undecided House seats?)
blastula
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Over in CO-03, they're back counting today. Frisch has had an excellent ballot curing operation going, and Boebert's lead of 1100 has been cut 550, but it looks like he's going to run out of ballots soon. It is close enough to go to an automatic recount, but will be too much to make up that way.
Meanwhile, Pelosi announced that she won't be running for leader.
Meanwhile, Pelosi announced that she won't be running for leader.
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Nailed it.
"Slight change"??
The J6 Committee uncovered and published details of a major plot of treason and sedition.
If the House changes hands — putting some of those very traitors in a position of power — much of the J6 work will be undone. Instead expect the House to focus on trumped-up "scandals" and the impeachment of Joe Biden. There may even be more hearings on Benghazi.
And the Rs will use devices like the Debt Ceiling to hold the country hostage.
The "Big Red Wave" didn't happen, but loss of the House is still disastrous. (Fivethirtyeight.com isn't updating its Election results. What is the present status of the 18 undecided House seats?)
Nailed it.
"Slight change"??
The J6 Committee uncovered and published details of a major plot of treason and sedition.
If the House changes hands — putting some of those very traitors in a position of power — much of the J6 work will be undone. Instead expect the House to focus on trumped-up "scandals" and the impeachment of Joe Biden. There may even be more hearings on Benghazi.
And the Rs will use devices like the Debt Ceiling to hold the country hostage.
The "Big Red Wave" didn't happen, but loss of the House is still disastrous. (Fivethirtyeight.com isn't updating its Election results. What is the present status of the 18 undecided House seats?)
TSwizzle must have a gigantic boner about Hunter's laptop about now.
Derec
Contributor
As good as Selina Meyer's?
(first 30s of the clip)
Long overdue. I wonder who will be the Minority Leader. After 20 years of San Francisco, I think maybe not another big coastal city.
Derec
Contributor
Biden is still president. SCOTUS is still 6-3. Senate will be either 50-50 or 51-49, and the House goes from a small Dem majority to a small GOP majority."Slight change"??
Yes, slight change.
Did it involve gunpowder? Never mind, that was the N5 Committee.
There has been more than enough incessant talk about January 6th over the last almost two years. What I would like to see is an investigation into lenient treatment of the 2020 rioters/terrorists like Colinford Mattis, Urooj Rahman and Montez Lee.
It's 218-212 now. So five races still to be called. So it could go from 218-217 to 223-212. Under the coin toss model, there is a 62.5% chance that it will end up either 220-215 or 221-214.
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Derec
Contributor
It does not work like that. It's not like a runoff or a World Cup final where one of the two must win.
A candidate must win the majority of members of the House, and if he or she doesn't they vote and vote until a candidate gets the majority and there is white smoke rising from the rotunda dome. OK, I made that last part up.
But the point stands - it will not be between Trump and Pelosi or more realistically between McCarthy and Jeffries. It will be: can McCarthy get 218? (he may) Can Jeffries? (he can't) If McCarthy can't get the votes, Reps must find somebody who can.
That would not only be incredibly petty, it could also backfire spectacularly since the Speaker is right after Veep in the line of succession.
Derec
Contributor
They don't need to change parties. They just don't have to vote for Trump as Speaker. Since a vote for Speaker needs 218 votes (if all are present), he would need almost all Republicans to vote for him. Unless some Dems would like to play a very risky version of Operation Chaos.
lpetrich
Contributor
I've been following the New York Times on the vote counts, even though the NYT is paywalled.
Currently, the Republicans are at 218 House seats and the Democrats 212.
Frisch concedes race against Boebert as it goes to recount | AP News
That's Adam Frisch and Lauren Boebert. "With nearly all votes counted, the incumbent Boebert leads Frisch by about 0.17 percentage points, or 554 votes out of over 327,000 votes counted."
Of the others, in CA-13, the R is ahead of the D with by 0.69% with 95% counted, in CA-22, 5% with 86% counted, and in CA-03, 4%, with 71% counted. The remaining undecided seat is AK-01, where Democrat Mary Peltola is at 49%, Sarah Palin at 26%, and Nick Begich at 23%. Unless almost all NB's voters want SP as their second choice, MP will win.
The likely final score: R 222, D 213. Meaning that the R's will be saddled with the problem that the D's had over the last two years with the Senate.
For the Senate in Alaska, the D has 10% of the votes, and the two R's are neck-and-neck, incumbent Lisa Murkowski and challenger Kelly Tshibaka. So one of the R's is likely to be elected. For that state, results will be announced later this month, since they want to collect all the ballots before going ahead with the next round of instant runoff. Alaska now uses a top-four system, where the top four candidates continue from the primaries to an instant-runoff general election. This is sometimes called ranked-choice voting, but strictly speaking, that's how the ballots work.
Currently, the Republicans are at 218 House seats and the Democrats 212.
Frisch concedes race against Boebert as it goes to recount | AP News
That's Adam Frisch and Lauren Boebert. "With nearly all votes counted, the incumbent Boebert leads Frisch by about 0.17 percentage points, or 554 votes out of over 327,000 votes counted."
Of the others, in CA-13, the R is ahead of the D with by 0.69% with 95% counted, in CA-22, 5% with 86% counted, and in CA-03, 4%, with 71% counted. The remaining undecided seat is AK-01, where Democrat Mary Peltola is at 49%, Sarah Palin at 26%, and Nick Begich at 23%. Unless almost all NB's voters want SP as their second choice, MP will win.
The likely final score: R 222, D 213. Meaning that the R's will be saddled with the problem that the D's had over the last two years with the Senate.
For the Senate in Alaska, the D has 10% of the votes, and the two R's are neck-and-neck, incumbent Lisa Murkowski and challenger Kelly Tshibaka. So one of the R's is likely to be elected. For that state, results will be announced later this month, since they want to collect all the ballots before going ahead with the next round of instant runoff. Alaska now uses a top-four system, where the top four candidates continue from the primaries to an instant-runoff general election. This is sometimes called ranked-choice voting, but strictly speaking, that's how the ballots work.
lpetrich
Contributor
Election results, 2022: State government trifectas - Ballotpedia
- D trifecta - 17 - CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NM, NJ, NY, OR, RI, WA
- R trifecta - 21 - AL, AR, FL, GA, IA, ID, IN, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY
- D gov R leg - 6 - AZ, KS, KY, LA, NC, WI
- R gov D leg - 2 - NV, VT
- D gov, R SS, D SH - 1 - PA
- R gov, D SS, R SH - 1 - VA
- Undecided - 2 - AK, NH
Charlie Baker could have won again if he had wanted to. He's possibly the most moderate Republican I can point to. In some ways he's a liberal. Frequently bashing heads with Trump and MAGAshits. The Republicans chose a hard core crazy MAGAshit election Liar in the primaries to run against the Democrat. A popular Attorney General going for Governor. Mass now has it's first Female and first openly lesbian Governor who won in a landslide.
I wonder what Baker will do. He probably wishes that there was a role for him bringing the Republicans back to something that is not far right crazy but anywhere outside of Massachusetts he'd be seen as a Democrat and I don't think any Republics outside of New England would give him a second of their time.
Jayjay
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I think this is a dumb way to count the ballots. They should instead tabulate all the combinations of the ranked-choice votes separately, and update the results in real-time. But I guess it's still such a new system that they want to keep it "simple" (which is actually more complex, but more familiar from previous elections).