steve_bank
Diabetic retinopathy and poor eyesight. Typos ...
The takeaway is that there is a slight shift in power if republicans get the house, but we remain a pretty much 50/50 political split.
Trump as Speaker? That would be glorious.
Moreover, even at coin toss 50-50, probability of getting 219 or more drops to 5%. Which means even in the unlikely case Dems hold the House, they will be unlikely to have any wiggle room.By "coin-toss" I mean that there is no systemic bias, and the GOP's chance for each of the 18 races is 0.50. If instead the GOP's chance of winning each given race is 53%, then the Demo's chance of keeping the House is only 7.5% as shown in this table:
Imagine if someone like Pete Buttigieg said on FOX news it would be a terrible idea if the Republicans elected Trump as Speaker, followed by a few tweets from The Squad saying it would be the end of America...Trump as Speaker? That would be glorious.
If republicans were really stupid enough to make Trump speaker it would be a spectral to behold. When he wasn't golfing or watching TV Trump would be on a vendetta against members of his own party. You could even see some moderates become democrats to get rid of him.
Imagine if someone like Pete Buttigieg said on FOX news it would be a terrible idea if the Republicans elected Trump as Speaker, followed by a few tweets from The Squad saying it would be the end of America...
The takeaway is that there is a slight shift in power if republicans get the house, but we remain a pretty much 50/50 political split.
Nailed it.The takeaway is that there is a slight shift in power if republicans get the house, but we remain a pretty much 50/50 political split.
"Slight change"??
The J6 Committee uncovered and published details of a major plot of treason and sedition.
If the House changes hands — putting some of those very traitors in a position of power — much of the J6 work will be undone. Instead expect the House to focus on trumped-up "scandals" and the impeachment of Joe Biden. There may even be more hearings on Benghazi.
And the Rs will use devices like the Debt Ceiling to hold the country hostage.
The "Big Red Wave" didn't happen, but loss of the House is still disastrous. (Fivethirtyeight.com isn't updating its Election results. What is the present status of the 18 undecided House seats?)
Nailed it.The takeaway is that there is a slight shift in power if republicans get the house, but we remain a pretty much 50/50 political split.
"Slight change"??
The J6 Committee uncovered and published details of a major plot of treason and sedition.
If the House changes hands — putting some of those very traitors in a position of power — much of the J6 work will be undone. Instead expect the House to focus on trumped-up "scandals" and the impeachment of Joe Biden. There may even be more hearings on Benghazi.
And the Rs will use devices like the Debt Ceiling to hold the country hostage.
The "Big Red Wave" didn't happen, but loss of the House is still disastrous. (Fivethirtyeight.com isn't updating its Election results. What is the present status of the 18 undecided House seats?)
As good as Selina Meyer's?Over in CO-03, they're back counting today. Frisch has had an excellent ballot curing operation going,
Long overdue. I wonder who will be the Minority Leader. After 20 years of San Francisco, I think maybe not another big coastal city.Meanwhile, Pelosi announced that she won't be running for leader.
Biden is still president. SCOTUS is still 6-3. Senate will be either 50-50 or 51-49, and the House goes from a small Dem majority to a small GOP majority."Slight change"??
Did it involve gunpowder? Never mind, that was the N5 Committee.The J6 Committee uncovered and published details of a major plot of treason and sedition.
It's 218-212 now. So five races still to be called. So it could go from 218-217 to 223-212. Under the coin toss model, there is a 62.5% chance that it will end up either 220-215 or 221-214.The "Big Red Wave" didn't happen, but loss of the House is still disastrous. (Fivethirtyeight.com isn't updating its Election results. What is the present status of the 18 undecided House seats?)
It does not work like that. It's not like a runoff or a World Cup final where one of the two must win.I'm undecided. If the Speaker vote is between Pelosi and Trump, should we hope a few Rs defect and make Nancy Speaker again?
That would not only be incredibly petty, it could also backfire spectacularly since the Speaker is right after Veep in the line of succession.Or would it be better for the Ds to throw all their support behind Trump, make him Speaker, and let the Orange Laughingstock be on full display for all the world to laugh at?
They don't need to change parties. They just don't have to vote for Trump as Speaker. Since a vote for Speaker needs 218 votes (if all are present), he would need almost all Republicans to vote for him. Unless some Dems would like to play a very risky version of Operation Chaos.Then they would elect Trump in a disasterously self-destructive move to own the libs.
Are there 10 moderate republicans left in the House who would switch sides, or at least become independent, to get rid of Trump?
As a result of the 2022 elections, there will be 21 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 10 divided governments where neither party had trifecta control. There were two states (Alaska and New Hampshire) where trifecta status remained unclear. Before the election, Alaska had a divided government and New Hampshire had a Republican trifecta.
Trifecta status changed in six states. In Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota, divided governments became Democratic trifectas. In Nevada, the Democratic trifecta became a divided government. In Arizona, the Republican trifecta became a divided government.
In MA and MD, two Republican governors have Democratic successors. In MD, Larry Hogan was term-limited out, while in MA, Charlie Baker decided not to run.
I think this is a dumb way to count the ballots. They should instead tabulate all the combinations of the ranked-choice votes separately, and update the results in real-time. But I guess it's still such a new system that they want to keep it "simple" (which is actually more complex, but more familiar from previous elections).For the Senate in Alaska, the D has 10% of the votes, and the two R's are neck-and-neck, incumbent Lisa Murkowski and challenger Kelly Tshibaka. So one of the R's is likely to be elected. For that state, results will be announced later this month, since they want to collect all the ballots before going ahead with the next round of instant runoff. Alaska now uses a top-four system, where the top four candidates continue from the primaries to an instant-runoff general election. This is sometimes called ranked-choice voting, but strictly speaking, that's how the ballots work.