NYTime/Siena will be looking to exit the polling business if their last set is terribly off. The NY Times exit polling has been extraordinarily accurate in 2020, 2022. Of course, that isn't the same as pre-exit polling. There are tea leaves for everyone here. Personally, I think the latest (last?) salvo of polls are blue biased. I want to be extremely wrong.
Kansas
Who is leading? Democrat up 49 to 44.
What matters in this poll? 9% of Trump voters are switching party for the Senate vote, with "only" 86% of Trump voters supporting the incumbent.
However? 2024 vote is 48 to 40 in those polled which is well shy of 2024 outcome. About 10% of likely voters didn't vote in 2024, which seems like a high number. Half of them support Hamilton and the Democrat for Governor.
Ohio
Who is leading? Democrat up 49 to 44.
What matters in this poll? 6% of Trump voters are switching party for the Senate vote, with "only" 85% of Trump voters supporting the incumbent.
However? 2024 vote is 47 to 42 in those polled which is also well shy of 2024 outcome. About 8% of likely voters didn't vote in 2024, which seems like a high number. 60% support Brown and Acton.
And? 8% of Trump voters in 2024 either don't know or refused to answer.
Texas
Who is leading? Democrat up 50 to 43.
What matters in this poll? 7% of Trump voters are switching party for the Senate vote, with "only" 89% of Trump voters supporting the incumbent.
However? 2024 vote is 46 to 37 in those polled which is closer but still well short of the 2024 outcome. About 12% of likely voters didn't vote in 2024, which continues to seem like a high number. In excess of 55% support the Democrats for Governor and Senate. Trafagler is +12% Republican, which is closer, and have Paxton just barely leading. There is a notable swing in minority support as well between the two.
Good news
Democrats are up in almost every battleground state.
NY Times / Siena poll implying enhanced turnout of new voters in the mid-terms and they are heavily in favor of the Democrats.
Musk has spent $250 million-ish in Texas, that's a red flag for the GOP any way you cut it. So it is at least going to be very close.
Trump/Vance campaigning in Kansas. Another red flag.
Hints of younger voters who voted Trump feeling bamboozled.
Bad News
Numbers look too good. The percentages of polled partisan groups generally shy of the 2024 outcome, meaning polls may be showing a bias in Democrat's favor that doesn't exist.
Trump has an uncanny way of getting his supporters to show up.
Never rely on the youth vote to win elections!