Afghan "train, advise and assist" 1984 style

[funinspace]

The Neocons want it both ways in the preparation for the post occupation blame game. A pathetic article of splaining...

https://breakingdefense.com/2021/04/afghanistan-the-long-painful-retreat/

Despite the rhetoric of a mission accomplished, however, Biden’s address was notable for what was not said. The U.S. military effort in Afghanistan has dwindled to a few thousand U.S. troops working mostly in the background to advise and assist Afghan soldiers willing to fight and risk death for their country, while suffering four troops killed in action in 2020, the lowest number of U.S. combat deaths in the country in a calendar year since the war began. Far more troops were killed in training accidents during that time.

Earlier in the article it mentions the 15,000 contractors that will also be leaving. The author also leaves out that this impressive low soldier count and 'background' effort, has come with significant losses of governmental control of areas of the country, so no it isn't working. I guess thousands of bombing runs is now 'background' work... In the last few years we substituted bombs for boots on the ground.

In a recent classified intelligence assessment, the U.S. Intelligence Community reportedly told the Biden administration that if U.S. troops leave before a power-sharing agreement is reached between the Taliban and the Afghan government, the Islamist extremist group could once again impose their iron grip and totalitarian ideology on the Afghan people within two or three years.

Thus would history repeat itself. “There are a lot of details about the nature and magnitude of our continued commitment to Afghanistan and in the region that are still unknown, but I do fear that we will look back on this withdrawal decision a couple of years from now and regret it,” David Petraeus, former director of the CIA and commander of all U.S. and allied forces in both Afghanistan and Iraq, told Breaking Defense in an interview. Security has already eroded over the past two years as the U.S. has reduced forces and critical enablers, he noted, and without that support he worries that the Afghan Security Forces may crumble.

“At that point you could see a return to the kind of civil war that followed the collapse of the post-Soviet government and the likely exodus of international aid organizations and Afghans who have an option to leave,” said Petraeus. “In a worst case scenario, it could start to resemble Saigon in 1975.”

Is the author so stupid that he thinks the Taliban would honor some piece of paper called a 'power-sharing agreement'? It will crumble about the same with such a contrived agreement, just like in Vietnam...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

One point you raised I think is that the low troop numbers can only be sustained with occasional higher troop deployments, and the deaths that come from the temporary (couple years) increase.

 

[funinspace]

One point you raised I think is that the low troop numbers can only be sustained with occasional higher troop deployments, and the deaths that come from the temporary (couple years) increase.

I'd say it depends on the goals. If just keeping Afghanistan from getting worse (and not better), I'd say 10-15k soldiers (never mind the 15k contractors) is the bare minimum. With that, the Afghan government seemed to be able to have a semblance of firm control of 50-60% of the country.

To actually give Afghanistan a chance at a decent future, I think it would take something on the order of 50k soldiers for a decade along with securing the super rugged border with Pakistan, and that is only after something like the Pres. Obama surge of 100k soldiers that lasted just over 2 years. And this is something that I don't think any president would be able to convince Americans to support, other than just maybe when it first began... For one thing, the price tag would jump to $100B - $150 billion a year.

 

[Rhea]

In a recent classified intelligence assessment, the U.S. Intelligence Community reportedly told the Biden administration that if U.S. troops leave before a power-sharing agreement is reached between the Taliban and the Afghan government, the Islamist extremist group could once again impose their iron grip and totalitarian ideology on the Afghan people within two or three years.

Thus would history repeat itself. “There are a lot of details about the nature and magnitude of our continued commitment to Afghanistan and in the region that are still unknown, but I do fear that we will look back on this withdrawal decision a couple of years from now and regret it,” David Petraeus, former director of the CIA and commander of all U.S. and allied forces in both Afghanistan and Iraq, told Breaking Defense in an interview. Security has already eroded over the past two years as the U.S. has reduced forces and critical enablers, he noted, and without that support he worries that the Afghan Security Forces may crumble.

“At that point you could see a return to the kind of civil war that followed the collapse of the post-Soviet government and the likely exodus of international aid organizations and Afghans who have an option to leave,” said Petraeus. “In a worst case scenario, it could start to resemble Saigon in 1975.”

Is the author so stupid that he thinks the Taliban would honor some piece of paper called a 'power-sharing agreement'? It will crumble about the same with such a contrived agreement, just like in Vietnam...

And I wonder if we would welcome the refugees fleeing the thing we stopped protecting them from.

 

[J842P]

I think the pull out date to be September 11 to be...ill advised. watch all the MAGAcunts lose their collective shit and bleat about appeasement or some crap. Entertaining to be sure, but ultimately unproductive. Also, when have arbitrary deadlines ever produced a positive result? Unless this is showboating and Biden actually pulls troops out earlier than 9/11, this is borderline Trumpesque stupidity.

I mean, not sure if MAGA will take that stance. Remember, Trump famously was all for pulling out of Iraq and Afghanistan. He tried to do it during his own term. One of his big appeals was this stance.

 

[repoman]

I think the pull out date to be September 11 to be...ill advised. watch all the MAGAcunts lose their collective shit and bleat about appeasement or some crap. Entertaining to be sure, but ultimately unproductive. Also, when have arbitrary deadlines ever produced a positive result? Unless this is showboating and Biden actually pulls troops out earlier than 9/11, this is borderline Trumpesque stupidity.

I mean, not sure if MAGA will take that stance. Remember, Trump famously was all for pulling out of Iraq and Afghanistan. He tried to do it during his own term. One of his big appeals was this stance.

No mention of military contractors?

Are you that much of a dupe?

 

[J842P]

I think the pull out date to be September 11 to be...ill advised. watch all the MAGAcunts lose their collective shit and bleat about appeasement or some crap. Entertaining to be sure, but ultimately unproductive. Also, when have arbitrary deadlines ever produced a positive result? Unless this is showboating and Biden actually pulls troops out earlier than 9/11, this is borderline Trumpesque stupidity.

I mean, not sure if MAGA will take that stance. Remember, Trump famously was all for pulling out of Iraq and Afghanistan. He tried to do it during his own term. One of his big appeals was this stance.

No mention of military contractors?

Are you that much of a dupe?

I'm not sure I follow your point.

 

[Patooka]

I think the pull out date to be September 11 to be...ill advised. watch all the MAGAcunts lose their collective shit and bleat about appeasement or some crap. Entertaining to be sure, but ultimately unproductive. Also, when have arbitrary deadlines ever produced a positive result? Unless this is showboating and Biden actually pulls troops out earlier than 9/11, this is borderline Trumpesque stupidity.

I mean, not sure if MAGA will take that stance.

You're searching for consistency amongst people who consider it a character flaw.

Remember, Trump famously was all for pulling out of Iraq and Afghanistan. He tried to do it during his own term. One of his big appeals was this stance.

I do. And I am certain the same MAGAcunts blindly supported Bush for those invasions to occur. It's not about policy because Trump didn't have any. It's all about "owning the libs" even if it means cutting off one's nose. How else can you explain throwing the Kurds under the bus, killing an Iranian General only to have him be replaced by someone far, far worse and supplying Saudi Arabia with all the weapons they want? That is not a coherent strategy by anyone's definition.

On topic: Here is an editorial that describes some consequences of leaving Afghanistan. Some key points.

- A lot of NGOs that do real beneficial work would have to leave Afghanistan if foreign troops pull out.

- The consensus amongst most Afghans is that human rights will erode the second troops leave.

- Afghanistan is a vital intelligence hub for Five Eyes nations.

An indefinite deployment won't happen. That is political suicide. Unilateral withdrawal will lead to some very unfavourable results. I suspect to smart play would be a re-evaluation of goals and increased international involvement. I don't know Biden could achieve that however - US credibility around the world is fucked and we all know why. And yet Biden's strategy looks like an attempt to do something out of fear of doing nothing and that is never a good enough reason to do so.

 

[J842P]

On topic: Here is an editorial that describes some consequences of leaving Afghanistan. Some key points.

- A lot of NGOs that do real beneficial work would have to leave Afghanistan if foreign troops pull out.

- The consensus amongst most Afghans is that human rights will erode the second troops leave.

- Afghanistan is a vital intelligence hub for Five Eyes nations.

An indefinite deployment won't happen. That is political suicide. Unilateral withdrawal will lead to some very unfavourable results. I suspect to smart play would be a re-evaluation of goals and increased international involvement. I don't know Biden could achieve that however - US credibility around the world is fucked and we all know why. And yet Biden's strategy looks like an attempt to do something out of fear of doing nothing and that is never a good enough reason to do so.

I'm sorry, none of those are America's problem. The US should leave, it is not in her interest to stay engaged in Afghanistan. If you feel strongly about it, I suggest you petition the Australian government to occupy Afghanistan.

 

[funinspace]

In a recent classified intelligence assessment, the U.S. Intelligence Community reportedly told the Biden administration that if U.S. troops leave before a power-sharing agreement is reached between the Taliban and the Afghan government, the Islamist extremist group could once again impose their iron grip and totalitarian ideology on the Afghan people within two or three years.

Thus would history repeat itself. “There are a lot of details about the nature and magnitude of our continued commitment to Afghanistan and in the region that are still unknown, but I do fear that we will look back on this withdrawal decision a couple of years from now and regret it,” David Petraeus, former director of the CIA and commander of all U.S. and allied forces in both Afghanistan and Iraq, told Breaking Defense in an interview. Security has already eroded over the past two years as the U.S. has reduced forces and critical enablers, he noted, and without that support he worries that the Afghan Security Forces may crumble.

“At that point you could see a return to the kind of civil war that followed the collapse of the post-Soviet government and the likely exodus of international aid organizations and Afghans who have an option to leave,” said Petraeus. “In a worst case scenario, it could start to resemble Saigon in 1975.”

Is the author so stupid that he thinks the Taliban would honor some piece of paper called a 'power-sharing agreement'? It will crumble about the same with such a contrived agreement, just like in Vietnam...

And I wonder if we would welcome the refugees fleeing the thing we stopped protecting them from.

We won't. Hell, the Biden administration is already struggling with all the people (could be 17,000ish) seeking to leave due to having worked for the US government in various roles within their country, and now feel endangered by the likely return of the Taliban.

A good representation of the situation, and a worthy quote of the times from Biden's own lips:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/03/we-cant-abandon-afghans-who-helped-us/618416/

“I do not believe the United States has an obligation, moral or otherwise, to evacuate foreign nationals” other than diplomats of third countries, Biden said. “The United States has no obligation to evacuate one, or 100,001,

Show

South Vietnamese

.”

 

[repoman]

https://thegrayzone.com/2021/04/16/biden-afghanistan-war-privatizing-contractors/

Biden isn’t ending the Afghanistan War, he’s privatizing it: Special Forces, Pentagon contractors, intelligence operatives will remain

I am not even saying this is wrong or right. But at least let's have a accurate discussion of what is happening.

 

[bilby]

On topic: Here is an editorial that describes some consequences of leaving Afghanistan. Some key points.

- A lot of NGOs that do real beneficial work would have to leave Afghanistan if foreign troops pull out.

- The consensus amongst most Afghans is that human rights will erode the second troops leave.

- Afghanistan is a vital intelligence hub for Five Eyes nations.

An indefinite deployment won't happen. That is political suicide. Unilateral withdrawal will lead to some very unfavourable results. I suspect to smart play would be a re-evaluation of goals and increased international involvement. I don't know Biden could achieve that however - US credibility around the world is fucked and we all know why. And yet Biden's strategy looks like an attempt to do something out of fear of doing nothing and that is never a good enough reason to do so.

I'm sorry, none of those are America's problem. The US should leave, it is not in her interest to stay engaged in Afghanistan. If you feel strongly about it, I suggest you petition the Australian government to occupy Afghanistan.

Australia has had troops in Afghanistan since 2001, when the US requested their presence under the terms of the ANZUS treaty.

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/1011/MilitaryInvolvementAfghanistan

There are still Australian military forces deployed there as part of Operation Highroad

https://www1.defence.gov.au/operations/highroad

I don't know why we bother, because the Seppos never seem to even notice, but Australia has provided military forces alongside her ally, the USA, in pretty much every conflict the US has engaged in since WWII. The sizeable Australian contribution in the Vietnam War marked the first departure from a previous policy of supporting British military actions, in favour of supporting US actions where Britain had declined to do so.

Most Americans appear to be completely unaware that Australian troops were involved in the Vietnam War, so I guess it's no shock that they're also unaware of Australia's involvement in Afghanistan.

 

[Patooka]

I'm sorry, none of those are America's problem. The US should leave, it is not in her interest to stay engaged in Afghanistan. If you feel strongly about it, I suggest you petition the Australian government to occupy Afghanistan.

I'm not interested in conquest, and Australia is just as culpable as the US in the way a power vacuum was created in Afghanistan and then given lip service for nearly a decade because Iraq was the big bad for...reasons I don't fucking know. I also stopped believing in goodies and baddies on the international stage and nations capable of acting altruistically a very fucking long time ago. I will point out the attitude you have towards Afghanistan is exactly the same one the US had in 1989 and that turned out to be unproductive to say the least. To put it bluntly, America does benefit if Afghanistan doesn't devolve back into the land of raging thundercunts and Biden's strategy looks very much like short term gain for long term pain.

Incidentally, the first and third callout I made are very much America's problem. Unless one is of the opinion that Russia and China are not risks to the US.

Australia has had troops in Afghanistan since 2001, when the US requested their presence under the terms of the ANZUS treaty.

I was under the impression that the ANZUS treaty only obligates the nations involved to provide moral support if asked, which is why New Zealand was within its rights to not help in the clusterfuck otherwise known as Iraq. I know it's not as binding as NATO, for example.

 

[funinspace]

https://thegrayzone.com/2021/04/16/biden-afghanistan-war-privatizing-contractors/

Biden isn’t ending the Afghanistan War, he’s privatizing it: Special Forces, Pentagon contractors, intelligence operatives will remain

I am not even saying this is wrong or right. But at least let's have a accurate discussion of what is happening.

Though some of what the linked article says seems on point, it seems to exaggerate and conflate a few things...

At the same time, of course the US domination game will refuse to leave region. We have special teams/operatives across most all of north Africa. The difficulty for the military-complex will be how to keep such tools at hand in a land locked country with few, if any, US friendly nations on the Afghan border to house our toys and players. Our drones can fly in, but there aren't many good routes. And they won't have long operational time if they have to spend hours flying in and out. I doubt that US many US citizen operatives will stay behind (not considering extended Embassy operations). Even if the Afghan government allows a quiet/secret drone base to remain behind, that will only last until the government collapses...Fall of Kabul. Then we will be largely back to trying to bribe one of the *stan countries to host our toys or allow fly over.

Another article that discussing what might happen:
https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/big-caveats-to-us-exit-from-afghanistan/

The report said that although NATO forces would formally withdraw, Turkey, a member of the alliance, “is leaving troops behind who could help the CIA collect intelligence.” Besides, some of the Pentagon contractors (mercenaries), who include 6,000 American personnel, could also be redeployed.

 

[bilby]

Though some of what the linked article says seems on point, it seems to exaggerate and conflate a few things...

At the same time, of course the US domination game will refuse to leave region. We have special teams/operatives across most all of north Africa. The difficulty for the military-complex will be how to keep such tools at hand in a land locked country with few, if any, US friendly nations on the Afghan border to house our toys and players. Our drones can fly in, but there aren't many good routes. And they won't have long operational time if they have to spend hours flying in and out. I doubt that US many US citizen operatives will stay behind (not considering extended Embassy operations). Even if the Afghan government allows a quiet/secret drone base to remain behind, that will only last until the government collapses...Fall of Kabul. Then we will be largely back to trying to bribe one of the *stan countries to host our toys or allow fly over.

Another article that discussing what might happen:
https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/big-caveats-to-us-exit-from-afghanistan/

The report said that although NATO forces would formally withdraw, Turkey, a member of the alliance, “is leaving troops behind who could help the CIA collect intelligence.” Besides, some of the Pentagon contractors (mercenaries), who include 6,000 American personnel, could also be redeployed.

What does north Africa have to do with anything? Afghanistan is about 3,000km (1,800 miles) from Africa.

 

[funinspace]

Though some of what the linked article says seems on point, it seems to exaggerate and conflate a few things...

At the same time, of course the US domination game will refuse to leave region. We have special teams/operatives across most all of north Africa. The difficulty for the military-complex will be how to keep such tools at hand in a land locked country with few, if any, US friendly nations on the Afghan border to house our toys and players. Our drones can fly in, but there aren't many good routes. And they won't have long operational time if they have to spend hours flying in and out. I doubt that US many US citizen operatives will stay behind (not considering extended Embassy operations). Even if the Afghan government allows a quiet/secret drone base to remain behind, that will only last until the government collapses...Fall of Kabul. Then we will be largely back to trying to bribe one of the *stan countries to host our toys or allow fly over.

Another article that discussing what might happen:
https://asiatimes.com/2021/04/big-caveats-to-us-exit-from-afghanistan/

The report said that although NATO forces would formally withdraw, Turkey, a member of the alliance, “is leaving troops behind who could help the CIA collect intelligence.” Besides, some of the Pentagon contractors (mercenaries), who include 6,000 American personnel, could also be redeployed.

What does north Africa have to do with anything? Afghanistan is about 3,000km (1,800 miles) from Africa.

I was responding to repoman's post, about the US intentions in Afghanistan post withdrawal, and mentioning north Africa as an example of how the US is likely to try and redeploy special forces/operations as part of the official US military withdrawal from Afghanistan.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

What does north Africa have to do with anything? Afghanistan is about 3,000km (1,800 miles) from Africa.

I was responding to repoman's post, about the US intentions in Afghanistan post withdrawal, and mentioning north Africa as an example of how the US is likely to try and redeploy special forces/operations as part of the official US military withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is surrounded by unfriendlies. It is one of the main reasons Clinton didn't have a second go at bin Laden.

 

[funinspace]

Well, it seems that the Afghan government isn't holding up very well at all as US forces bugged out, minus some number, maybe 450ish. Evidently, we are keeping a small force there to make sure the airport will stay operational while western embassies try to remain open. Evidently, we are working with Turkey for them to try and manage it...maybe.

It seems that the Afghan air force willingness or capacity to support operations is already collapsing:
https://asiatimes.com/2021/06/help-never-arrived-for-betrayed-afghan-troops/

The group of 50 elite Afghanistan special forces were to be backed up by 170 troops from the army, police and intelligence agency, who would follow up to secure it and fend off counterattacks, Stars & Stripes reported.
<snip>
he trapped soldiers called for ground and air support, but neither materialized.

Most of the 170 troops who were supposed to back up the elite fighters stayed put out of fear that the operation had been leaked to the Taliban, the report said.

“The army did not come, police did not come, NDS did not come,” said the official, who asked to remain anonymous.

The west had 20 years to help prepare the Afghan government to be self-reliant. And it sounds like the air force will be pretty much non-operational within weeks.
https://thehill.com/opinion/nationa...afghan-air-force-when-buy-american-goes-wrong

Recent reports warn that the Afghan Air Force may be grounded once all U.S. forces and contractors leave Afghanistan. This comes as no surprise given the Afghan Air Force’s reliance on U.S. contractors to maintain aircraft (to be fair, the U.S. Air Force also relies heavily on contractors for aircraft maintenance). However, it didn’t have to be this way.

The collapse seems to be happening at a tremendous pace, with more districts falling without a fight, than with a fight. The Taliban seems to now control more of the country than the govenment.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/arch...f-controlled-afghan-districts-since-may-1.php

The Taliban has taken control of more than 80 districts in the two months since launching its offensive against the Afghan government after President Joe Biden announced the U.S. would withdraw its forces from the country by September.

In many cases, Afghan security forces have turned over district centers, abandoned military bases, surrendered to the Taliban and handed over their weapons, vehicles and other war material without a fight. The Taliban’s multi-year strategy of gaining influence in rural districts to then pressure the population centers is paying dividends.

I've read that some US military/security experts give the Afghan government only 6-12 months. And so far it doesn't sound like we have a neighbor host nation to house our Drone warriors, but there could be a secret arrangement. At the current pace, it seems like it may happen even faster. Clearly, the west was not able to get the job done and prepare the Afghan government to run the show after 20 years. The Taliban has already shown off large quantities of formerly governmental military equipment and weapons that they have acquired. I guess when the news reports the closing of embassies in Kabul, we will know the final call is being made...

I have found it ironic that this same media (and the candidates) who ignored Afghanistan thru the last 2 election cycles is now much more worked up about the events there. And hey there was a US general saying that Afghanistan may descend into civil war. WTF, where has this dude been for 2 decades? Maybe West Point had majors in double speak back in the 1990's...

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

We knew leaving would result in this. If we ever had a chance to make this work it was back in '01/'02. And now, well, it's over. Taliban will be back in charge with the agreement they'll not allow al Qaeda back in. Of course, what can we do to stop them from allowing that?

All we can do now is stamping approvals for refuge applications as fast as we can and finding them homes in the US.

 

[Patooka]

China and Pakistan might be stepping in. I'm not sure what to think about that.