Alien Megastructure... or just something we haven't thought of yet?

[fromderinside]

With the exception of a bit of Helium, plus the minuscule amount of stuff we turned into space probes, plus a few radioactive materials that disappeared long before humans evolved, every single resource the Earth started out with is still here.

We are not running out of anything (except perhaps Helium). Anything we want, we can make - given enough energy. And we are parked 1AU from an energy source we have hardly started to tap, that is good for a few eons at least.

The idea that we are running out of anything is insane.

Yeah, sure. .... and the next time humans curb their collisions with disaster will be the first time. We're on course, given our mastery of energy, to producing several trillion humans on earth at one time in less than 500 years. So what is available today won't be available very soon in cosmic time. We already understand it is easier to mine exposed asteroids than it is to descent very much further into earth's mantle. So the 'I can touch it I can have it' approach suggests the asteroid belt is where we're going.

Still my point was sending signals across a 400 million mile radius is a lot easier to detect than it is to detect a signals from a point source revolving around the same huge noise source.

We've very different views on the effects of man in use and production equations I see.

 

[skepticalbip]

Not compared to an asteroid they aren't.

They almost are.

It depends on what you mean by almost.

Humans do work in those deep mines. It is hot and uncomfortable but they survive. The temperature is survivable, there is air to breathe,

On or in an asteroid, an unprotected human would die in less than a minuet. There is no air to breathe. It is cold as shit, colder than -100 C. But assuming that the human lives in a heated suit with air supply then the microgravity does bad things to the body for long term exposure. On the surface of an asteroid there is cosmic radiation that would kill them with prolonged exposure - the reason people working in space limit the time spent on their EVAs.

 

[Bomb#20]

With the exception of a bit of Helium, plus the minuscule amount of stuff we turned into space probes, plus a few radioactive materials that disappeared long before humans evolved, every single resource the Earth started out with is still here.

We are not running out of anything (except perhaps Helium). Anything we want, we can make - given enough energy. And we are parked 1AU from an energy source we have hardly started to tap, that is good for a few eons at least.

The idea that we are running out of anything is insane.

Well, let's not overstate the case. There are a lot of things we really are running out of. For instance, here's a list of 25 resources we're almost out of.

 

[dystopian]

This argument against alien civilizations in our milky way galaxy really only applies if you're talking about von-neumann probes. It doesn't quite work otherwise because there's simply too many variables that could slow/interrupt/reverse colonial expansion otherwise. The argument only works when you can assume stable behaviors.

I'm not assuming stable behaviors--I'm assuming there would be some with the pioneer spirit, not that any large numbers have it.

No, you're still going to have to assume stable behaviors for the argument to work; because the argument only works if x number of aliens colonize and take x years before x number of aliens from the colony will go on to colonize again. Even if you factor in random changes in the rate at which this happens over time, you're *still* assuming stable behavior. The argument falls apart once we start considering the vast range of variables that could lead biological entities to stop, reverse, or never engage in this behavior in the first place, because at that point we become unable to make predictions. War, alien plagues, religions/political/cultural changes, cosmic disasters, economics, these are just a fraction of the variables we can come up with our limited human understanding. The argument only becomes a serious argument against the existence of alien life if we replace biological aliens (whose behavior we can not predict), with automated self-replicating colonizer probes; otherwise there's simply too many unknown variables to account for.

Not to mention that there are many perfectly plausible arguments against the notion that aliens dont exist because they'd have colonized us by now or we'd have found evidence already; most of which do not involve us as being the only intelligent life out there. So while the Fermi paradox is an interesting thought experiment... that's *all* it is.

 

[dystopian]

I was addressing your view that "At that rate they will have colonized any part of the galaxy they want (but not the surrounding globular clusters) in 30 million years.", also considering that you said that "anybody doing mega engineering in space has the ability to do an interstellar trip" (which indicates the aliens doing the mega engineering are the ones planning the trip).

The new scenario (i.e., smaller groups of colonists) faces (at least) the following difficulties/assumptions.

1. It assumes that there are millions of aliens. That may not be so. For example, it may be one or a few AI that remain after an earlier civilization with greater numbers. Or it may be the cyborgs (resulting from merging between machines and biological organisms) that won a war against others, and see no good reason for increasing their numbers.

That's a dead species.

That is a very human view, and one that is neither neccessarily shared by other species, nor neccessarily true. An increase in numbers is not a particular survival advantage once you reach a certain level of technology and spread (it might even be a disadvantage). Really the only thing you need to avoid becoming a dead species is to have enough numbers to sustain genetic viability (and that's assuming this is even relevant, which it might not be for a civilization that has digitized itself, otherwise modified itself in ways we might not even be able to imagine, or simply doesn't reproduce in a manner that requires it); and a large enough spread to avoid sudden extinction from cosmic disasters. The former doesn't require much, the latter... also doesn't really require a lot. Spreading out over a handful of star systems that are sufficiently far removed from one another (so that if a supernova or a gamma ray burst or something equivalent happens only a part of the species would get wiped out) would be more than enough to ensure long-term survival.

As time goes on the group that can accomplish something gets smaller and smaller. 50 years ago space was the province of governments. Now orbital launches by private corporations are commonplace and a group of amateurs has attempted to send a rocket to the edge of space. (The flight was terminated soon after launch and didn't make it.)

There will come a point when the group of prospective pioneers can do it out of their own resources.

This is once again a very human view. You know nothing of how alien cultures would think or behave, but somehow feel confident enough to say that their development will follow our own path? We have no reason to make any assumptions about the motivations of an alien culture as a whole or as individuals. For all we know they exist as a hive mind where it is impossible for individuals to even exist in any meaningful form. We simply don't know enough to make accurate predictions and arguments upon which to base a view of ourselves as either being alone or sharing the galaxy with others.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Stop staring at that patch of sky. Haven't you people seen the movie "Prince of Darkness?" Scared the shit out of me.

 

[untermensche]

Not one shred of evidence of any "mega structure".

Just something that looks like debris.

Maybe the advanced civilization blew their planet apart.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Not one shred of evidence of any "mega structure".

Just something that looks like debris.

Maybe the advanced civilization blew their planet apart.

Or, even worse, a different advanced civilization blew their planet apart.

I'm not saying it's quite time to start panicking, but it's definitely time to start panicking.

 

[bilby]

Not one shred of evidence of any "mega structure".

Just something that looks like debris.

Maybe the advanced civilization blew their planet apart.

Or, even worse, a different advanced civilization blew their planet apart.

I'm not saying it's quite time to start panicking, but it's definitely time to start panicking.

http://whatever.scalzi.com/2014/11/11/the-big-idea-liu-cixin/

We must immediately take steps to destroy this star and everything in orbit about it.

 

[DBT]

Not one shred of evidence of any "mega structure".

Just something that looks like debris.

It's the implied size of some of the objects which are blocking sunlight to that degree that is puzzling, far in excess of Jupiter size objects...yet with little in the way of red shift that would indicate the presence of a lot of dust and debris.

 

[untermensche]

Not one shred of evidence of any "mega structure".

Just something that looks like debris.

It's the implied size of some of the objects which are blocking sunlight to that degree that is puzzling, far in excess of Jupiter size objects...yet with little in the way of red shift that would indicate the presence of a lot of dust and debris.

Not a shred of evidence of a "mega structure".

Structure implies something built by something with intelligence.

There is no evidence of that. Only the wild imagination of a few people based on the tiniest bit of evidence.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It's the implied size of some of the objects which are blocking sunlight to that degree that is puzzling, far in excess of Jupiter size objects...yet with little in the way of red shift that would indicate the presence of a lot of dust and debris.

Not a shred of evidence of a "mega structure".

Structure implies something built by something with intelligence.

There is no evidence of that. Only the wild imagination of a few people based on the tiniest bit of evidence.

Correct, but in general, there is no consensus by even them that it definitely is a megastructure, only that it could be a possibility. Which it could be, though much more likely to be something natural.

 

[braces_for_impact]

 

[skepticalbip]

It's the implied size of some of the objects which are blocking sunlight to that degree that is puzzling, far in excess of Jupiter size objects...yet with little in the way of red shift that would indicate the presence of a lot of dust and debris.

Not a shred of evidence of a "mega structure".

Structure implies something built by something with intelligence.

There is no evidence of that. Only the wild imagination of a few people based on the tiniest bit of evidence.

At least that is what creationists tell us.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Not a shred of evidence of a "mega structure".

Structure implies something built by something with intelligence.

There is no evidence of that. Only the wild imagination of a few people based on the tiniest bit of evidence.

At least that is what creationists tell us.

Well I never saw a watch laying on the beach and thought it was naturally created. Of course, I've never seen a watch just laying on the beach either. But I have seen a beach! And the tides... the tides... no one can explain those things. They go out and come in, go out and come in. Completely unexplainable... therefore god!

 

[fromderinside]

At least that is what creationists tell us.

Well I never saw a watch laying on the beach and thought it was naturally created. Of course, I've never seen a watch just laying on the beach either. But I have seen a beach! And the tides... the tides... no one can explain those things. They go out and come in, go out and come in. Completely unexplainable... therefore god!

Uh, that would be gods. Like the sun god the moon god...... and princes - the Prince of Tides - ...... and dragons; How else can one explain the stink pots in Yellowstone? too far, too soon?

 

[bilby]

A 'Structure' is simply something that resists changes to its shape when subjected to forces.

A structure that is more or less homogeneous on a macroscopic scale is called a 'Material'.

The arched roof of a limestone cave is properly called a structure, despite its completely natural origin; the lack of symmetry in the Kepler data suggests irregular shapes for the occluding objects, which given the tendency of large accumulations of matter to form spheres, implies structure. But that doesn't necessarily imply design.

 

[fromderinside]

A 'Structure' is simply something that resists changes to its shape when subjected to forces.

A structure that is more or less homogeneous on a macroscopic scale is called a 'Material'.

The arched roof of a limestone cave is properly called a structure, despite its completely natural origin; the lack of symmetry in the Kepler data suggests irregular shapes for the occluding objects, which given the tendency of large accumulations of matter to form spheres, implies structure. But that doesn't necessarily imply design.

 Rosetta (spacecraft)

Comet Churyumov–Gerasimenko

 

[bilby]

A 'Structure' is simply something that resists changes to its shape when subjected to forces.

A structure that is more or less homogeneous on a macroscopic scale is called a 'Material'.

The arched roof of a limestone cave is properly called a structure, despite its completely natural origin; the lack of symmetry in the Kepler data suggests irregular shapes for the occluding objects, which given the tendency of large accumulations of matter to form spheres, implies structure. But that doesn't necessarily imply design.

 Rosetta (spacecraft)

Comet Churyumov–Gerasimenko

I said large accumulations. That's tiny. But it's certainly a structure.

Still, swarms of comets are quite a good candidate as an explanation for this Kepler data - there is another star nearby that might have disturbed the system's equivalent to an Oort Cloud, and what Kepler is seeing could be conditions similar to our own system's Late Heavy Bombardment.

 

[untermensche]

Not a shred of evidence of a "mega structure".

Structure implies something built by something with intelligence.

There is no evidence of that. Only the wild imagination of a few people based on the tiniest bit of evidence.

At least that is what creationists tell us.

OK, I won't disagree.

But speculation of an alien built structure is nothing more than an improbable and wild guess based on absolutely nothing.