Are we headed to WW3?

[Loren Pechtel]

A successful launch would not be known to carry WMDs (barring other intelligence sources) until they were deployed - but when deployed, there would be no hiding who is responsible.

Disagree. Launch an interplanetary science mission. Two stage motor for the interplanetary burn, the first stage just barely makes escape. The bomb is riding on the first stage, it's now in something approximating Earth orbit, uses only plasma for stationkeeping. Doesn't take much stealthing for it to hide when it's that far out. Do a flyby when you want to attack.

In hindsight it will be possible to figure out how it got there but nobody's going to be able to prove what it was ridesharing with.

For that matter, you could do this with a moon mission. Main mission never reaches escape, but the bomb flies a slightly different trajectory and is ejected.

You still have the big question of reliability, though, as well as the issue of a failed launch. Although if you'll spend some extra mass I don't think even that's insurmountable. The RTG generators on outer planet missions are packed so they'll remain intact even if the booster goes boom. The hard part is believable numbers at launch.

 

[Elixir]

You still have the big question of reliability, though, as well as the issue of a failed launch. Although if you'll spend some extra mass I don't think even that's insurmountable.

No problemo - let AI take over design parameters, parts inspections analysis, performance monitoring and decision making at launch or actuation - what could possibly go wrong?

 

[aupmanyav]

"Are we headed to WW3?"

Elon Musk is angling for his presidency. Might be good rather than the current madman.

 

[bilby]

The RTG generators on outer planet missions are packed so they'll remain intact even if the booster goes boom. The hard part is believable numbers at launch.

An RTG is basically just a big lump of Plutonium.

A nuclear bomb is a lump of Plutonium wrapped in a lot of powerful explosive charges.

Sure, it's really hard to get those charges to accidentally detonate with the exquisite timing needed to get a fission explosion; But it's also really hard to stop them from fragmenting the pit to the point where enough Pu dust is spread around as to make it very clear what you were up to.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

"Are we headed to WW3?"

Elon Musk is angling for his presidency. Might be good rather than the current madman.

He's an outright white supremacist. So... no.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The RTG generators on outer planet missions are packed so they'll remain intact even if the booster goes boom. The hard part is believable numbers at launch.

An RTG is basically just a big lump of Plutonium.

A nuclear bomb is a lump of Plutonium wrapped in a lot of powerful explosive charges.

Sure, it's really hard to get those charges to accidentally detonate with the exquisite timing needed to get a fission explosion; But it's also really hard to stop them from fragmenting the pit to the point where enough Pu dust is spread around as to make it very clear what you were up to.

Depends on how you build your device.

Yes, it's normally assembled in the factory. That doesn't make it impossible for the device to launch in multiple parts with the plutonium well separated from the explosives. You will pay a reliability penalty for that but it's not impossible. And note that while the fusion stage contains plutonium it contains no explosives.

 

[bilby]

Depends on how you build your device.

Yes, it's normally assembled in the factory. That doesn't make it impossible for the device to launch in multiple parts with the plutonium well separated from the explosives. You will pay a reliability penalty for that but it's not impossible.

Yeah, it's functionally impossible. The tolerances required in assembly are extremely tight. No way are you building a satellite that can do it automatically in orbit.

If it were easy, then the Manhattan Project would have taken a few months and cost a couple of million bucks, rather than a couple of billion.

 

[bilby]

And note that while the fusion stage contains plutonium it contains no explosives.

It is contained within the fission stage, which is contained within a shell of chemical explosives. It is doubly irrelevant to the question at hand.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Depends on how you build your device.

Yes, it's normally assembled in the factory. That doesn't make it impossible for the device to launch in multiple parts with the plutonium well separated from the explosives. You will pay a reliability penalty for that but it's not impossible.

Yeah, it's functionally impossible. The tolerances required in assembly are extremely tight. No way are you building a satellite that can do it automatically in orbit.

If it were easy, then the Manhattan Project would have taken a few months and cost a couple of million bucks, rather than a couple of billion.

There's exactly one serious hard step in building an atomic bomb: getting the materials. Neither sufficiently pure U-235, nor sufficiently pure Pu-239 are obtainable without billions in equipment. Little Boy is trivial, two engineers with no nuclear knowledge managed a simulated Fat Man in IIRC 1967.

And if the assembly is truly that problematic, Little Boy. Small chance of a fizzle, but the tolerances are very loose. And a fusion stage cares only about the energy, it cares nothing about the mechanics of the previous stage. It doesn't even care that the previous stage actually be fission--a fusion stage can be fired by another fusion stage.

Consider the main mirror of the Webb. A bunch of segments that had to be deployed while in space and require extremely tight tolerances. Couldn't even truly test the deployment system on Earth.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And note that while the fusion stage contains plutonium it contains no explosives.

It is contained within the fission stage, which is contained within a shell of chemical explosives. It is doubly irrelevant to the question at hand.

Look up Teller-Ulam. The fusion stage is not contained within the fission stage. You're thinking of a boosted fission device.

 

[aupmanyav]

He's an outright white supremacist. So... no.

No for you, but perhaps yes for many. Who knows?