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Biden loses by 5 to Trump while an unnamed, generic Democrat beats Trump by 8

Elixir

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Biden loses by 5 to Trump while an unnamed, generic Democrat beats Trump by 8

Not to discount the value of a candidate being unnamed and generic - an obvious benefit due to lack of negatives, no baggage etc. - but this augurs very well for Teh Donald if Sleepy Joe stays in the race. The UGD beats Joe by 13 points?
We’re fucked.

Dems really really really need to come up with someone who has not been thoroughly processed through the Republican propaganda machine; their patented Hillarization procedure has effectively turned one of the most effective Presidents ever into a drooling, decrepit, senile, stuttering mess.

The problem is, we DON'T HAVE "Mr. Unnamed Generic Democrat" to replace him with.
(Someone should name themself that and get in the race.)
 
their patented Hillarization procedure has effectively turned one of the most effective Presidents ever into a drooling, decrepit, senile, stuttering mess

I mean, even if they were aware of his effectiveness, that would hardly improve Republican opinions of his administration. Republicans are partisan traitors, not bureaucrats; if they cannot establish direct control of "the government", then their next goal is to topple it and replace it with a government that they are in control of. Having a government that is effective, but does not answer to them or their current leader, is not even a secondary or tertiary goal, it's exactly what they are trying to prevent from happening by their various manipulations of the vote.

So it's just the "undecided middle" we're talking about, and Democrats are always losing the rhetorical war. Aside from the occasional scandal, they are incapable of being interesting at all to someone who votes but "doesn't pay much attention to politics".
 
Dems really really really need to come up with someone who has not been thoroughly processed through the Republican propaganda machine; their patented Hillarization procedure has effectively turned one of the most effective Presidents ever into a drooling, decrepit, senile, stuttering mess.
I think it is worth pointing out that in 2020, the Republican propaganda machine was already selling Biden as a drooling, decrepit, senile stuttering mess who was campaigning from his basement and was so lame he didn't even hold rallies.

Actually, the Republican propaganda machine started from the moment he announced his candidacy, and the drooling, decrepit, senile stuttering mess that was actually the fucking President at the time tried to use the power of the White House to kneecap Biden. He was actually impeached for using his office to attempt to strong arm the President of Ukraine into launching an investigation of Biden. (side note...the fact that Trump actually thought he could bully Volodimir Zelenskyy is kinda hilarious in retrospect, isn't it?)

Anyway, after all of that, "Sleepy Joe" Biden won by a wide margin.

Is Biden a lock for 2024? No, and we shouldn't treat it as such. Yet the election is still a year off. The polling is not something I'd put a lot of stock in at this point. Will Trump be the nominee? That's almost a guarantee. He's very confident. So confident, in fact, that he spent his morning throwing a very public temper tantrum in his fraud trial. In between now and next year he's going to have at least one more trial (Cannon seems open to moving hers past the election, Chutkin is not) and that will no doubt have an impact.

Should the Democrats kick Biden to the curb and start all over again? No. In fact I'd argue they can't. Biden is - if anything - more of a sure thing for the nomination than Trump at this point. Should he be out there on the campaign trail taking credit for everything good that has happened in the past couple of years? Yes, but the Democrats seem to have decided that his effectiveness is self-evident and they don't need to sell it.
 
Democrats are always losing the rhetorical war.
… unless they are unnamed and generic, apparently.
Well, see, that's the trouble. You get real candidate in there, and they're bound to open their mouth eventually and attempt to give a speech. That's where the principle trouble begins.
 
I will say again what I've been saying for some time. The problem is the economy. Costs are way up. This has been going on a long time with a rise. Something should have been done and more still can be done. If nothing gets done about it, Biden will lose.
 
(side note...the fact that Trump actually thought he could bully Volodimir Zelenskyy is kinda hilarious in retrospect, isn't it?)
Putin thought the same thing, and 520,000 people have died to prove them both wrong. Just about the entire world underestimated Volodomir Zelenskyy. Actors who turn to politics often prove to be far, far more dangerous than people expected them to be.
 
I will say again what I've been saying for some time. The problem is the economy. Costs are way up. This has been going on a long time with a rise. Something should have been done and more still can be done. If nothing gets done about it, Biden will lose.
And if anyone thinks that voting Trump back into office will bring prices back down, then I've got a box of Trump Steaks and a degree from Trump University I'd like to sell them.

Thing is, aside from the elevated prices, the economy is actually doing pretty well. With the exception of inflation (which is coming down), almost every single economic indicator is head and shoulders above what it was when Fragilego Mussolini was escorted out of the White House. Stock market, job market, wage growth, GDP...it's all going pretty well. In fact, the Federal Reserve has only just stopped raising interest rates because they think the economy was growing too fast for their liking.

Somehow, the Democrats and the Biden administration have utterly failed to communicate these facts, and folks still seem to be convinced that we're in a doomsday scenario recession that only a "successful businessman" can rescue us from. Propaganda is a helluva thing.
 
I will say again what I've been saying for some time. The problem is the economy. Costs are way up. This has been going on a long time with a rise. Something should have been done and more still can be done. If nothing gets done about it, Biden will lose.
And if anyone thinks that voting Trump back into office will bring prices back down, then I've got a box of Trump Steaks and a degree from Trump University I'd like to sell them.

Thing is, aside from the elevated prices, the economy is actually doing pretty well. With the exception of inflation (which is coming down), almost every single economic indicator is head and shoulders above what it was when Fragilego Mussolini was escorted out of the White House. Stock market, job market, wage growth, GDP...it's all going pretty well. In fact, the Federal Reserve has only just stopped raising interest rates because they think the economy was growing too fast for their liking.

Somehow, the Democrats and the Biden administration have utterly failed to communicate these facts, and folks still seem to be convinced that we're in a doomsday scenario recession that only a "successful businessman" can rescue us from. Propaganda is a helluva thing.

It isn't just propaganda, though. It's also looking at correlations, whether valid or not. People observe that when Trump was President prices were considerably less. They observe that now that Biden is President, prices are much higher. You can talk about indicators and other things, but people observe directly everyday the prices of goods and services, like groceries etc. We know from reading that much of that is unnecessarily high profit margins and oil/gas has also produced some effect, but the vast majority of voters are not educated in nuance. I bet if you look at what is going on in swing states, the number one concern is economics. This would be consistent with previous polling, too. Biden's people need to take this very seriously.

Trump is in this to win. He will do absolutely anything to win. One reason is it will help him to avoid prison. And if he does win, he'll probably die in office because he is so old and unhealthy. He probably won't mind that legacy as long as he doesn't go to prison and his loyal foot soldiers talk about how he was the bestest President in the Universe.
 
Democrats seem to have decided that his effectiveness is self-evident
Uh huh, and Republicans have decided that Trump’s economy was better. So have most independents and some democrats, if those polls mean anything. Despite the facts, it’s not even close.

For me, it’s not Biden’s number that I find troubling, it’s the “unnamed generic democrat” who fares 13 points better than Biden that bothers me. Would an “unnamed generic Republican” beat Trump by 13 points? No way.

It’s not panic time yet, but this is a hint about the hill Dems have to climb.
 
I will say again what I've been saying for some time. The problem is the economy. Costs are way up. This has been going on a long time with a rise. Something should have been done and more still can be done. If nothing gets done about it, Biden will lose.
And if anyone thinks that voting Trump back into office will bring prices back down, then I've got a box of Trump Steaks and a degree from Trump University I'd like to sell them.

Thing is, aside from the elevated prices, the economy is actually doing pretty well. With the exception of inflation (which is coming down), almost every single economic indicator is head and shoulders above what it was when Fragilego Mussolini was escorted out of the White House. Stock market, job market, wage growth, GDP...it's all going pretty well. In fact, the Federal Reserve has only just stopped raising interest rates because they think the economy was growing too fast for their liking.

Somehow, the Democrats and the Biden administration have utterly failed to communicate these facts, and folks still seem to be convinced that we're in a doomsday scenario recession that only a "successful businessman" can rescue us from. Propaganda is a helluva thing.

It isn't just propaganda, though. It's also looking at correlations, whether valid or not. People observe that when Trump was President prices were considerably less. They observe that now that Biden is President, prices are much higher. You can talk about indicators and other things, but people observe directly everyday the prices of goods and services, like groceries etc. We know from reading that much of that is unnecessarily high profit margins and oil/gas has also produced some effect, but the vast majority of voters are not educated in nuance. I bet if you look at what is going on in swing states, the number one concern is economics. This would be consistent with previous polling, too. Biden's people need to take this very seriously.

Trump is in this to win. He will do absolutely anything to win. One reason is it will help him to avoid prison. And if he does win, he'll probably die in office because he is so old and unhealthy. He probably won't mind that legacy as long as he doesn't go to prison and his loyal foot soldiers talk about how he was the bestest President in the Universe.

I would argue that it is just propaganda. Or rather, messaging/marketing. For the longest time the GOP has been frankly a lot better and messaging than the Democrats. From the 90s until very recently, they were relentless. Find a message, unite behind it, and hammer it over and over again. I know a little bit about this, since I used to make ads for a living. Find something that resonates, and repeat it over and over again.

The Democrats seem genetically incapable of taking credit for anything. Carville figured it out over 30 years ago: "It's the economy, stupid." But they never seem to be able to put 2 and 2 together. Yes, Clinton presided over a booming economy, but Gore utterly failed to capitalize on it. Bush II trashed the economy, and Obama rebuilt it, but at the end of his time people figured "hey, maybe we should try that GOP thing again?" Biden has presided over a recovery that should have been impossible, but he can't seem to sell it as a good thing. It's maddening. And if by some chance he falls down and hits his head, the Democrats will line up behind Harris as the next big thing. Will they sell her as the steady hand who was in office when the economy came back after a national disaster? Nope. They don't have the imagination to do that.


But if there is one thing that Trump has (maybe) done, it's that he has fractured the once "lockstep" Republican Party. Some of the "cooler heads" in the GOP seem to realize that he's not good for their future. He lost the popular vote in 2016, lost "bigly" to Biden in 2020, and for the next year his legal troubles are going to be front and center. He is the albatross around their party's neck. The only question that remains is whether or not he will take down the ship before it arrives at a safe harbor.
 
I will say again what I've been saying for some time. The problem is the economy. Costs are way up. This has been going on a long time with a rise. Something should have been done and more still can be done. If nothing gets done about it, Biden will lose.
No. The problem is that people are extremely ignorant when it comes to economics. Inflation has dropped significantly since Biden took office and inflation has been a global problem, due to many circumstances, that the president has no control over. Inflation is now down to a little over 3%, but prices are unlikely to ever go back to where they were 3 or 4 years ago. Ignorant people blame presidents for all kinds of things they have no control over. It works both ways. Gas prices were unusually low during part of the Trump presidency. A lot of it had to do with the pandemic. People weren't driving that much, so they weren't buying as much gas. But, people don't seem to understand the basic principle of supply and demand. A president has little control over most things related to the economy. I've heard people say, that prices were so much lower when Trump was president. But, prices haven't been going up much lately and some things like eggs, milk and gas have dropped recently. I just filled up the car with gas for 2.89/gallon. I remember when gas was as high as 4.50 a gallon, back in the 80s for awhile. The Fed controls interest rates, not the president. In fact, I read an article the other day that suggested that the Fed might be inadvertently helping Trump win and should they be concerned. The Fed is supposed to be apolitical, so I doubt anything will change.

Another problem is that those on the right tell insane lies about Biden and other Democrats. For example, referring to Biden as a criminal, when Trump is an actual criminal. Trump said this weekend that Biden is letting in people from prisons and mental hospitals. He said it as if Biden was standing on the Mexican border asking Mexico to release their prisoners so they could come here. Sadly, too many people believe these lies, insane as they are. Trump constantly projects his own weaknesses and crimes on others.

Richard Engle made a good point this morning when Joe Scarborough asked him why people like Trump win elections. He said it was all about charisma. While we don't see it, lots of people see Trump as having a strong charismatic personality, so they prefer him over someone who is simply a decent, hard working person who is doing his best for the country. Biden is just too boring for some people. They want excitement and controversy and they get it from Trump.

One positive thing I read this morning is that a lot of the Trump supporters said, while they don't care about the inditement, if Trump is found guilty of a crime, they won't vote for him, So, let's go Fanni Wallis and Jack Smith. Let's get his guy convicted ASAP. Of moue

Trump pretends to be a Christian and he also pretends to care about poor white people. Too many of these people have been suckered into the cult. They probably won't change their vote, but there are a lot who are just pissed off right now for a lot of reasons. For example, they are blaming Biden for what Bibi is doing, despite the fact that Biden and his administration have been trying to reason with Bibi. But, Bibi is a far right maniac, who can't be reasoned with. These people act as if Biden started the invasion of Gaza and he fully supports the maniacal attacks on the citizens of Gaza. Nothing could be further from the truth. Biden is between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the madness going on over there and it's not easy to try to support a long time ally, while also condemning the actions of the leader of that country.

Trump is obviously exhibiting symptoms of mental illness, including early dementia. He's almost the same age as Biden, but more than half of Americans think Biden is too old, but Trump is not, despite the fact that Trump can't even remember who he ran against in 2020 etc. He's a pathological liar, yet people don't seem to believe that. It's crazy, but I guess it's how other insane autocrats came to power and I guess Americans are too dumb to understand that they are helping destroy what's left of our democratic system.

Biden's team needs to get more aggressive when it comes to this campaign. Republicans have been doing this shit since Reagan. There's a reason why the Dems are sometimes called bleeding heart liberals. They are too nice to do what must be done if they want to defeat Trump. Enough ranting for now.
 
For the longest time the GOP has been frankly a lot better and messaging than the Democrats
They're just a lot more comfortable lying.

In any world where we all tell the truth about political goals, the Republicans fail miserably.

The problem is that if you can impress your dimwitted sycophants with lies, that doesn't matter.
 
So democrats are crap communicators, and Republicans are master orators.

THAT is why IMO they’re in trouble, and why we need someone who can speak with clarity and force, NOT with intelligence, nuance and insight. Americans are too stupid to respond to such things unless they’re just an ingredient in a big fat emotional sandwich they can gulp down mindlessly, like what Obama offered them. His excellent ideas and leadership were secondary to his ability to inspire. The inspiration came from his delivery, not from doing a great job or having great ideas.
Now we have Trump whose simple minded stupid ideas, cruelty and shallowness are secondary to his ability to inspire stupidity, cruelty and shallowness - the only necessary ingredients for a fascist takeover. If we can’t do better, we’re fucked.
 
The US political system has been in decline for twenty years at least; it's only a matter of time before it breaks down.

The question in my mind is what the US political system will become afterwards.
 
These polls don't matter. Biden is underwater. So were Obama and W as well (and Clinton wasn't that high either). And unlike Trump, Biden actually has a record to run on. And with Kansas and Ohio voting on abortion as they have, there is a message to run with. Biden doesn't have a cake walk, but after 2016, no one is taking Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin for granted again.

Trump barely won in 2016. Biden was able to correct errors made in 2016. Those 2016 errors will not be made again.
 
I think Biden will lose big time.

Biden is using the old democrat cliches. Pro union and his obvious pandering by showng up at a strike.
 
I think Biden will lose big time.

Biden is using the old democrat cliches. Pro union and his obvious pandering by showng up at a strike.
If abortion is on the ballot in Arizona, how does Trump win Arizona? He won't lose by much, but he'll lose.

Without Arizona, he needs Georgia and two of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. And with abortion, Georgia is not a freebie for Trump, even without a ballot measure.
 
If abortion is on the ballot in Arizona, how does Trump win Arizona?
If Dems fail to saddle Trump with the title “RvW Killer”, the deserve to lose. Not just in AZ, but EVERYWHERE.
Don't have to saddle Trump with anything. The GOP needs to be saddled 105% with it. Roberts, Alito, Thomas, the GOP started this in the 80s. and W pushed through Roberts and Alito, and then McConnell stole a seat that went to Gorsich. Fuck Trump, this is about the entire right-wing. None of them can be trusted.
 
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