Climate Change(d)?

[steve_bank]

TWSwizzel's wit is so brilliant I need sunglasses to read his posts.

He is so dazzling I need sunscreen to keep from getting sunburned.

He is so profound the history of human thought pales in comparison.

He is truly a wonder of the modern age.

 

[TSwizzle]

Well, it's that time of the year again;

From March 2000, 25 years ago!

Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent.

News

From a couple of weeks ago

The first snow of the season has fallen in London as an Arctic blast sweeps across the capital. Londoners took to social media to share their excitement after snow and sleet fell for around an hour on Wednesday morning, posting pictures and videos from Twickenham to Cricklewood.

News

 

[bilby]

Well, it's that time of the year again;

From March 2000, 25 years ago!

Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent.

News

From a couple of weeks ago

The first snow of the season has fallen in London as an Arctic blast sweeps across the capital. Londoners took to social media to share their excitement after snow and sleet fell for around an hour on Wednesday morning, posting pictures and videos from Twickenham to Cricklewood.

News

So, they reacted to snow as though it were a "very rare and exciting event", and you consider that to be evidence that the prediction within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event" was wrong?

That's an interesting conclusion you are drawing.

 

[steve_bank]

Well, it's that time of the year again;

From March 2000, 25 years ago!

Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent.

News

From a couple of weeks ago

The first snow of the season has fallen in London as an Arctic blast sweeps across the capital. Londoners took to social media to share their excitement after snow and sleet fell for around an hour on Wednesday morning, posting pictures and videos from Twickenham to Cricklewood.

News

Yes, it is still cold and snows in winter. Does not change anything. Glbal armng is about avergae temperature rise in the oceans.

Lake effect snow, Great Lakes border states known for it.Warmer lake temperature, more evaporation,more snow.

Buffalo Bills football games have had some heavy snowfall.

2014 "Snowvember":
A double dose of lake-effect snow hit Western New York from November 17–20, 2014, with some communities receiving over 7 feet of snow.

Lake-effect snow is intense, localized snowfall caused by cold, dry air moving over warmer lake water (like the Great Lakes), picking up moisture, rising, forming clouds, and then dropping heavy snow on downwind shores when the air hits land, creating huge snowfalls in narrow bands, often with extreme rates of several inches per hour. Key ingredients are a large unfrozen lake, a significant temperature difference between lake and air (around 23°F), and light winds, typically occurring from late fall to early winter.

Global warming is creating a paradox for lake-effect snow: warmer, ice-free Great Lakes fuel more intense but potentially shorter and later snow seasons in the near term, with more rain events possible, but eventually, warmer air might reduce snowfall overall as temperatures become too warm for snow, leading to more rain or mixed precipitation. The key is that warmer lakes provide more moisture, but colder air masses are needed for snow, so the balance shifts, causing extreme snow bands (like Buffalo's) while also delaying the season and potentially bringing rain instead of snow to southern areas.

In the long term snow fall will diminish as waters get warmer changing torain and mixed snow-rain,

As to London, ocean temperature does affect the jet stream. Lojndon snow paradoxically makes the case for global warming,

The current forecast for London involves a shift in the jet stream, moving the UK to its colder side, bringing a chance of snow/sleet, especially with cold air pushing south, though models show fluctuating patterns with potential for significant winter weather like a "Beast from the East" if high pressure stalls over Scandinavia, creating bitterly cold easterly winds and heavy snow, with some forecasts hinting at this extreme event for January, though details remain uncertain and dependent on jet stream behavior.

Lake-effect snow - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Lake-effect snow is produced during cooler atmospheric conditions when a cold air mass moves across long expanses of warmer lake water. The lower layer of air, heated by the lake water, picks up water vapor from the lake and rises through colder air. The vapor then freezes and is deposited on the leeward (downwind) shores.[1]
The same effect also occurs over bodies of saline water, when it is termed ocean-effect or bay-effect snow. The effect is enhanced when the moving air mass is uplifted by the orographic influence of higher elevations on the downwind shores. This uplifting can produce narrow but very intense bands of precipitation, which deposit at a rate of many inches of snow each hour, often resulting in a large amount of total snowfall.

Again, what is the cause for global rise in sea levels affecting as I posted coastal Santa Monica?and the entire west coast?

Dazzle me with logic and reason. Where on Earth could water be cumming form raising sea levels?

Bubbling up from deep in the Earth?
Raining down from outer space?
Water leaking through a hole in space time fabric from anther dimension?

Could it be melting glaciers and polar ice?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

From Teh Gruaniad in 2004, almost a quarter of a century ago.

Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters.. A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.
Already, according to Randall and Schwartz, the planet is carrying a higher population than it can sustain. By 2020 ‘catastrophic’ shortages of water and energy supply will become increasingly harder to overcome, plunging the planet into war. Randall added that it was already possibly too late to prevent a disaster happening. ‘We don’t know exactly where we are in the process. It could start tomorrow and we would not know for another five years,’ he said. Symons, who left the EPA in protest at political interference, said that the suppression of the report was a further instance of the White House trying to bury evidence of climate change.

Teh Gruaniad

The Guardian has never been a good source. So, they got something wrong. Water is wet. It's not like they are actually climate scientists.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

And I have previously agreed with you that a fair amount of the alarmism is unwarranted and actually detrimental to the goals of combating climate change.

In what way is the alarmism detrimental to the battle against climate change?

1) False predictions make people disregard the scientific stuff.

2) The alarmism directs efforts to the wrong places.

You think of the sea level rise as tiny--but many places are spending even 11 figures on storm surge defenses. Because the only alternative is building a whole new port and walling off the old one. The basic problem is that ports are almost always placed on big, flat areas. And tiny changes in the average result in big changes at the extremes--places that used to be safe now flood when big storms drive water against the port. And that's before you consider problems like Katrina where there were large areas of reclaimed land without adequate defenses.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Evidence that doesn’t exist according to some:

Radware Bot Manager Captcha

Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change​

By Richter et al.

In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and may dominate the observed spatial patterns of regional sea-level change. Model simulations of regional sea-level change associated with sterodynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass change, and ice-sheet surface mass balance changes are combined with observations of groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice-sheet mass changes. The resulting total geocentric regional sea-level change is then compared to independent measurements from satellite altimeter observations. The detectability of the climate-forced signal is assessed by comparing the model ensemble mean of the ‘historical’ simulations with the characteristics of sea-level variability in pre-industrial control simulations. To further minimize the impact of internal variability, zonal averages were produced. We find that, in all ocean basins, zonally averaged simulated sea-level changes are consistent with observations within sampling uncertainties associated with simulated internal variability of the sterodynamic component. Furthermore, the simulated zonally averaged sea-level change cannot be explained by internal variability alone—thus we conclude that the observations include a forced contribution that is detectable at basin scales.

 

[Shadowy Man]

See also https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061356
For some discussion of attribution.

If one accepts the conclusions of climate scientists that the climate varies naturally one should also accept their further conclusions of attribution to anthropogenic causes. Else one is in conspiracy theory land.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Truly, I can’t be arsed with your bs.

You cheer denialism that gets reported. You mock idiots who made crazy predictions not supported by the science. I have yet to see you address the actual science.

 

[Shadowy Man]

The rate of global sea level rise doubled during the past three decades - Communications Earth & Environment

Global mean sea level rise amounted to 4.5 mm per year as a result of warming oceans and melting land ice, more than twice the rate of 2.1 mm/year observed at the start of satellite data in 1993, based on a sea-level trajectory from altimeter data.

www.nature.com

The rate of global sea level rise doubled during the past three decades​

Hamlington et al. 2024

The rise in globally averaged sea level—or global mean sea level—is one of the most unambiguous indicators of climate change. Over the past three decades, satellites have provided continuous, accurate measurements of sea level on near-global scales. Here, we show that since satellites began observing sea surface heights in 1993 until the end of 2023, global mean sea level has risen by 111 mm. In addition, the rate of global mean sea level rise over those three decades has increased from ~2.1 mm/year in 1993 to ~4.5 mm/year in 2023. If this trajectory of sea level rise continues over the next three decades, sea levels will increase by an additional 169 mm globally, comparable to mid-range sea level projections from the IPCC AR6.

The two main causes of the increase in GMSL are indeed both connected closely to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting planetary warming. The ocean has absorbed about 90% of the extra heat trapped by the atmosphere, leading to an expansion in ocean waters as it warms. Additionally, the warmer ocean and atmosphere surrounding ice sheets and glaciers has led to the loss of ice on land that has increased the mass of water in the ocean. Both processes are now well-measured with modern observing systems, with the Argo profiling floats measuring ocean warming and thermal expansion, the series of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On satellites measuring ice and water mass redistribution at Earth’s surface, and missions like Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) helping us quantify the link between the warming oceans and disappearing land ice.

 

[steve_bank]

Arsed is right TSwizzle. You lack initiative to understand. Lazy.

Meaning of arsed in English

If you cannot be arsed to do something, you do not want to make the effort to do it: [ + to infinitive ] I can't be arsed to go shopping this afternoon. Unwilling and reluctant.

Meaning of arsed in English
arsed
adjective
UK informal
us
/ɑːrst/ uk
/ɑːst/
not be arsed
Add to word list
If you cannot be arsed to do something, you do not want to make the effort to do it:

Learned my new word for the day.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Arsed is right TSwizzle. You lack initiative to understand. Lazy.

Meaning of arsed in English

If you cannot be arsed to do something, you do not want to make the effort to do it: [ + to infinitive ] I can't be arsed to go shopping this afternoon. Unwilling and reluctant.

Meaning of arsed in English
arsed
adjective
UK informal
us
/ɑːrst/ uk
/ɑːst/
not be arsed
Add to word list
If you cannot be arsed to do something, you do not want to make the effort to do it:

Learned my new word for the day.

Must be Santa Monica slang.

 

[steve_bank]

An oldie but a goodie.

TSwizzle does not know 'shit from shinola'.

 

[steve_bank]

I forgot about thermal expansion of water.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I forgot about thermal expansion of water.

And note that there's a huge inertial effect here. The ocean, especially the deep ocean, does not warm as fast as the air. Bring warming to a screeching halt and the sea will continue to rise for a long time.

 

[steve_bank]

Ok TSwizzle, how do you explain rising sea levels, or do you deny it is happening?

This is where the rubber meets the road TSwizzle.

When the going gets tough the tough get going, are you going to get going and answer the question?

Or will you wimp out.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Lake-effect snow is intense, localized snowfall caused by cold, dry air moving over warmer lake water (like the Great Lakes), picking up moisture, rising, forming clouds, and then dropping heavy snow on downwind shores when the air hits land, creating huge snowfalls in narrow bands, often with extreme rates of several inches per hour. Key ingredients are a large unfrozen lake, a significant temperature difference between lake and air (around 23°F), and light winds, typically occurring from late fall to early winter.

Global warming is creating a paradox for lake-effect snow: warmer, ice-free Great Lakes fuel more intense but potentially shorter and later snow seasons in the near term, with more rain events possible, but eventually, warmer air might reduce snowfall overall as temperatures become too warm for snow, leading to more rain or mixed precipitation. The key is that warmer lakes provide more moisture, but colder air masses are needed for snow, so the balance shifts, causing extreme snow bands (like Buffalo's) while also delaying the season and potentially bringing rain instead of snow to southern areas.

Not too certain about this one. Lake Effect is generally cause by warm enough lakes with cold winds blowing over it, including polar vortex. It will take a while for northern Canada to become warm enough to prohibit Lake Effect events. Lake Effect is happening later than it usually did, due to lack of frozen lakes. Erie, being the shallowest, freezes quickly. But it takes more time, generally when October is warmer than it used to be.

Dazzle me with logic and reason. Where on Earth could water be cumming form raising sea levels?

Well a couple reasons. The more important one for the SE USA is that the conveyor is slowing down, and that is making the sea level rise a lot quicker than melting ice.

 

[steve_bank]

As I said I forgot thermal expansion of sea water.

Also the Atlantic currents off Europe are thought to be slowing down. It moderates temperature, weather, and churns nutrients for sea life. Keeps water oxygenated.

From a show on climate the currents start at the poles with cold water sinking due to polar ice.

Atlantic currents (part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC) do start with polar ice formation; as sea ice forms in the frigid North Atlantic, it leaves salt behind, making the water denser, causing it to sink and drive the deep ocean conveyor belt, a crucial part of Earth's climate system, though melting ice from Greenland could disrupt this process by adding fresh, lighter water.

Things are looking like there will be major future disruptions.

From the links on lake effect in the short term snow will increase, then as temperatures rise it will become more rain. As wintericediminishes on the Great Lakess heirr will be more evaporation and more snow in the short term.

As to logic and reason I was talking to TSwizzle....

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Atlantic currents (part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC) do start with polar ice formation; as sea ice forms in the frigid North Atlantic, it leaves salt behind, making the water denser, causing it to sink and drive the deep ocean conveyor belt, a crucial part of Earth's climate system, though melting ice from Greenland could disrupt this process by adding fresh, lighter water.

Things are looking like there will be major future disruptions.

From the links on lake effect in the short term snow will increase, then as temperatures rise it will become more rain. As wintericediminishes on the Great Lakess heirr will be more evaporation and more snow in the short term.

I'd say that is looking a bit too far out on the timeline. In the short term, there will be snow. But there has been lake effect snow. When it falls is shifting, but until cold air patterns stop dropping or existing in Canada, Lake Effect will occur. What matters for Lake Effect are the delta on the air temp to water temp, ice cover of the lake(s), and wind direction. I don't think this is stopping any time soon. It'll last longer into winter, but the cold air masses will clip into the region. The more notable issue would be polar vortex descensions into the Upper Midwest to Great Lake region and whether warming temps make that more common. 2014 was a brutal winter, but that over a decade ago now.

As to logic and reason I was talking to TSwizzle....

Well that'd be your first mistake.

 

[Elixir]

As I said I forgot thermal expansion of sea water.

A significant factor. A 1 °C increase in the mean temperature of the entire ocean*, would raise global mean sea level by over thre quarters of a meter! Of course there are thermally stratified areas of ocean that would mix at different speeds, and Santa Monica will probably be ok well past the lifetime of its only resident that matters.

* afaik that would mean several degrees of warming in the "hot spots", while the depths are barely effected. But the influence on weather is mainly driven by surface temps, so... bad news will likely precede any such sea-level rise.