Meanwhile there was the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) conference held this week, in Vladivostol Russia. And both Korea’s were there along with Putin who had just finished hanging out with Pres. Xi Jinping. And Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Yang, the point person for China’s Belt and Road Initiative, also attended the EEF meeting. I thought there were 2 interesting quotes from the below article:
http://www.atimes.com/article/trump-tweets-putin-steals-march-north-korea/
When talking to the media in Xiamen on Tuesday following the BRICS summit, Putin had done some plain speaking regarding North Korea. Notably, he said:
“Everyone remembers well what happened to Iraq and Saddam Hussein. Hussein abandoned the production of weapons of mass destruction. Nonetheless… Saddam Hussein himself and his family were killed… Even children died back then. His grandson, I believe, was shot to death. The country was destroyed… North Koreans are also aware of it and remember it. Do you think that following the adoption of some sanctions, North Korea will abandon its course on creating weapons of mass destruction? “Certainly, the North Koreans will not forget it. Sanctions of any kind are useless and ineffective in this case. As I said to one of my colleagues yesterday, they will eat grass, but they will not abandon this program unless they feel safe.”
<snip>
Significantly, Moon said at his press conference with Putin on Wednesday:
“Mr. President and I have also agreed to build up the basis for the implementation of trilateral projects with participation of the two Koreas and Russia, which will connect the Korean Peninsula and the Russian Far East… We have decided to give priority to the projects that can be implemented in the near future, primarily in the Far East. The development of the Far East will promote the prosperity of our two countries and will also help change North Korea and create the basis for the implementation of the trilateral agreements. We will be working hard on this.”
People have to decide if Kim Jong-un nuclear weapons drive is about regime survival, or some sort master plan (yes some people think along these lines) to drive the US out of the peninsula so they can re-unite Korea by force.
Meanwhile, is the US message about nuclear weapons, or regime change, or both?
http://www.atimes.com/article/north-korea-us-playing-dangerous-game-chicken/
To bring today’s crisis to a peaceful conclusion, Kim will have to tone down his aggression. But for that to happen, the Trump administration needs to demonstrate clearly that its goal is not regime change, but policy change – that is, denuclearization – in North Korea.
Unfortunately, the signals coming out of the US are still mixed. While Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s recent remarks on the crisis focused on diplomacy, Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo has mentioned regime change, and National Security Adviser General H R McMaster has raised the possibility of a preventive war.
<snip>
Neither Trump nor Kim seems to have sufficient political capital to spearhead a shift from military threats to diplomatic solutions. Given the far-reaching risks posed by this rapidly escalating crisis, it may well be up to other stakeholders to take the lead. Will China act as the regional stabilizer it so often proclaims itself to be? President Xi Jinping is being tested in this crisis as much as Trump and Kim.
Anyway one looks at the issue, it is hard to get around the reality that the US has a lot of hot pokers out there and we may have to put a couple in the cold water barrel if NK is the really important one. We need Russia’s and China’s cooperation on NK to get anywhere. Meanwhile our (re)actions have driven Russia to ever greater cooperation with China. The only thing I can think of that might get China to work towards a non-nuclear NK is some sort of agreement for the US military to leave the peninsula as part of a final solution. And that is something that would cause our neocons nuts to fall off…stalemate.
