Covid-19 miscellany

[Angra Mainyu]

The emergence of this variant displaces a more deadly variant, and it is resulting in fewer hospitalisations and deaths.

Why do you believe that an additional variant displaces one?
I'm no virologist, but I'm pretty sure that new variants are in addition to the previous ones. That is, having some level of immunity to the old one doesn't give you protection from the new one.

Australia masked, distanced and was at 90% vaccination level when omicron emerged.

Australia has a 90% vaccination rate? Here in the USA, I'm not sure 90% of the population is approved for vaccination.
I'm finding that claim implausible.

Tom

I don't know about Australia, but Argentina has 85.5% of the total population (i.e., counting even those not eligible) with at least one dose, though only 73.2% with at least two, and only 11.3 with at least three. In my city, it's 90.2% with at least one dose, and 84.8% with at least two. Better numbers for a developed country would not be so surprising - though after a google check, one can find out that they're not counting everyone: https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-29-december-2021 It's 91.2% with at least two doses, but counting only people over 16.

 

[Metaphor]

The emergence of this variant displaces a more deadly variant, and it is resulting in fewer hospitalisations and deaths.

Why do you believe that an additional variant displaces one?

Because of the evidence that omicron is displacing delta. I have already provided multiple links that explain this.

I'm no virologist, but I'm pretty sure that new variants are in addition to the previous ones. That is, having some level of immunity to the old one doesn't give you protection from the new one.

Good news. Getting omicron gives you protection against delta.

Australia masked, distanced and was at 90% vaccination level when omicron emerged.

Australia has a 90% vaccination rate? Here in the USA, I'm not sure 90% of the population is approved for vaccination.
I'm finding that claim implausible.

91.2% of people 16 and over are double-vaxxed.

Vaccination numbers and statistics

This page contains data about Australia's COVID-19 vaccine rollout. We update this page every day with the latest information.

www.health.gov.au

 

[Metaphor]

A video showing how omicron is displacing delta:

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Not available most of the time, and is gone quickly when it is available. I am just isolating myself for the time being, ordering everything online and delivered with no contact. Since I work supporting commercial accounting software I am not usually out much this time of year anyway so it isn't a big deal. I would just like to get it taken care of so I don't worry so much even though I know I am pretty safe here alone.

Ruth

Availability around here is just the opposite. Around here a person can walk into any pharmacy and get the booster.

Around here it's appointments required but both of us got next-day appointments. I don't mind it being appointments required because that reduces the number of wasted shots.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Omicron has displaced Delta, and while Omicron is more transmissible, it is significantly less deadly. If omicron developed in unvaccinated people, then that is a positive outcome.

Are you sure about this?

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has admitted a serious error in calculating the prevalence of the Omicron variant in the US, overblowing the figure by as much as 50 percentage points, sowing confusion as the nation breaks records for new cases. The agency released a revised chart on Tuesday showing that the new variant accounted for 23 percent of all COVID-19 cases for the week ending on December 18, as opposed to the 73 percent it originally reported.

Daily Mail

While they did fuck up the projection somehow (I haven't seen a good explanation for what went wrong yet) Omicron is showing exponential growth--it's going to displace Delta.

However, that doesn't mean Delta isn't still out there. And prior infection doesn't seem to offer a lot of protection against Omicron (so quit bleating "herd immunity!") so Omicron probably doesn't offer much protection against Delta, either. Omicron swamping Delta won't get rid of Delta.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Satan called one of his agents home!

MSN

 

[Jarhyn]

Omicron has displaced Delta, and while Omicron is more transmissible, it is significantly less deadly. If omicron developed in unvaccinated people, then that is a positive outcome.

Are you sure about this?

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has admitted a serious error in calculating the prevalence of the Omicron variant in the US, overblowing the figure by as much as 50 percentage points, sowing confusion as the nation breaks records for new cases. The agency released a revised chart on Tuesday showing that the new variant accounted for 23 percent of all COVID-19 cases for the week ending on December 18, as opposed to the 73 percent it originally reported.

Daily Mail

While they did fuck up the projection somehow (I haven't seen a good explanation for what went wrong yet) Omicron is showing exponential growth--it's going to displace Delta.

However, that doesn't mean Delta isn't still out there. And prior infection doesn't seem to offer a lot of protection against Omicron (so quit bleating "herd immunity!") so Omicron probably doesn't offer much protection against Delta, either. Omicron swamping Delta won't get rid of Delta.

It really just doubled the number of problems we have.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I usually don't try to get too excited about a near half million possible peak in daily cares in the US.

Also, Delta and Omicron are currently spending the holidays together in the Northeast and Midwest United States. That doesn't mean it has to have a kid, but it does provide an avenue for it.

So eggs and chicks and all.

I admit it's early on in omicron's life. But everything I've read, including those of expert epidemiologists, have said the emergence of this variant is good news.

But as I told Tom, I'm not here to force you to feel good about good news.

The term is cautiously optimistic. This is the first step in hopefully it going into a state of a general cold virus. Not the last. And whatever happens in its development is totally up to chance. So I'm not exactly dancing around yet.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The emergence of this variant displaces a more deadly variant, and it is resulting in fewer hospitalisations and deaths.

Why do you believe that an additional variant displaces one?

Because of the evidence that omicron is displacing delta. I have already provided multiple links that explain this.

I'm no virologist, but I'm pretty sure that new variants are in addition to the previous ones. That is, having some level of immunity to the old one doesn't give you protection from the new one.

Good news. Getting omicron gives you protection against delta.

The virus has been around for a month, and you can say that definitively?

 

[Metaphor]

Omicron has displaced Delta, and while Omicron is more transmissible, it is significantly less deadly. If omicron developed in unvaccinated people, then that is a positive outcome.

Are you sure about this?

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has admitted a serious error in calculating the prevalence of the Omicron variant in the US, overblowing the figure by as much as 50 percentage points, sowing confusion as the nation breaks records for new cases. The agency released a revised chart on Tuesday showing that the new variant accounted for 23 percent of all COVID-19 cases for the week ending on December 18, as opposed to the 73 percent it originally reported.

Daily Mail

While they did fuck up the projection somehow (I haven't seen a good explanation for what went wrong yet) Omicron is showing exponential growth--it's going to displace Delta.

However, that doesn't mean Delta isn't still out there. And prior infection doesn't seem to offer a lot of protection against Omicron (so quit bleating "herd immunity!") so Omicron probably doesn't offer much protection against Delta, either. Omicron swamping Delta won't get rid of Delta.

It really just doubled the number of problems we have.

It fucking has not. It fucking has not. Read any of the recent news about omicron.

Getting omicron offers protection against delta. Omicron is displacing delta. Fewer people are getting hospitalised with omicron. When people with omicron are hospitalised, they stay in hospital for less time. Far, far fewer people in total are dying from omicron, even though it is twice as transmissible.

 

[Metaphor]

The emergence of this variant displaces a more deadly variant, and it is resulting in fewer hospitalisations and deaths.

Why do you believe that an additional variant displaces one?

Because of the evidence that omicron is displacing delta. I have already provided multiple links that explain this.

I'm no virologist, but I'm pretty sure that new variants are in addition to the previous ones. That is, having some level of immunity to the old one doesn't give you protection from the new one.

Good news. Getting omicron gives you protection against delta.

The virus has been around for a month, and you can say that definitively?

The protective effect of omicron against delta is based on one small study in South Africa, but all major news outlets have reported it. However, unlike the seeming attitudes of some on this board, I hope getting omicron has a protective effect against delta and the results of the study are confirmed.

But the fact that omicron is displacing delta is something I am far more confident in saying. The evidence for this is that omicron is displacing delta. I have provided multiple links that explain this.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I picked up a bug a week ago, probably omicron. Wife wanted me to get tested. Why? I'm not dying, feels like a crappy cold. No fever. Just one of those things you have to ride out if your healthy and not panic prone. But get the vaccines and the boosters and be intelligent.

 

[Metaphor]

I usually don't try to get too excited about a near half million possible peak in daily cares in the US.

Also, Delta and Omicron are currently spending the holidays together in the Northeast and Midwest United States. That doesn't mean it has to have a kid, but it does provide an avenue for it.

So eggs and chicks and all.

I admit it's early on in omicron's life. But everything I've read, including those of expert epidemiologists, have said the emergence of this variant is good news.

But as I told Tom, I'm not here to force you to feel good about good news.

The term is cautiously optimistic. This is the first step in hopefully it going into a state of a general cold virus. Not the last. And whatever happens in its development is totally up to chance. So I'm not exactly dancing around yet.

I said the emergence of this variant with the properties it has is good news. To reiterate
* It is more infectious than delta, so it is displacing delta (this is not good news on its own, obviously)
* AND the chances of getting very ill and dying are significantly lower per infection
* AND it looks promising that despite the increased transmissibility, the total number of deaths will be lower than it would have been had omicron not emerged and delta remained dominant
* AND early results show that having had omicron has a protective effect against delta.

There appears to me to be a kind of insanity among some board members, like they want more bad news so they can get some kind of smug self satisfaction, like a reverse "own the libs".

 

[TomC]

But the fact that omicron is displacing delta is something I am far more confident in saying. The evidence for this is that omicron is displacing delta. I have provided multiple links that explain this.

Omicron is displacing delta in the news?
Is that what you're saying? That's what it sounds like.
Tom

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Not available most of the time, and is gone quickly when it is available. I am just isolating myself for the time being, ordering everything online and delivered with no contact. Since I work supporting commercial accounting software I am not usually out much this time of year anyway so it isn't a big deal. I would just like to get it taken care of so I don't worry so much even though I know I am pretty safe here alone.

Ruth

Availability around here is just the opposite. Around here a person can walk into any pharmacy and get the booster.

Around here it's appointments required but both of us got next-day appointments. I don't mind it being appointments required because that reduces the number of wasted shots.

Around here I'm still waiting: it's been 4 months since my second dose, and I'm still a month away from eligibility for the third one, despite the fact that the government sits on millions of doses, waiting for the reluctant to come forward while the willing but who have already two keep waiting. ETA: and just an hour after I said that, I read the headlines: in my city, booster will be after 4 months, which is a significant improvement. When it gets implemented (probably a few days), I will be eligible, so that's good. Hopefully, it won't be AZ again, as I already may have defenses against the viral vector.

 

[Metaphor]

But the fact that omicron is displacing delta is something I am far more confident in saying. The evidence for this is that omicron is displacing delta. I have provided multiple links that explain this.

Omicron is displacing delta in the news?
Is that what you're saying? That's what it sounds like.
Tom

No. If you think that's what I'm saying, then you have a comprehension problem. But I don't believe you think that's what I am saying.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

I picked up a bug a week ago, probably omicron. Wife wanted me to get tested. Why? I'm not dying, feels like a crappy cold. No fever. Just one of those things you have to ride out if your healthy and not panic prone. But get the vaccines and the boosters and be intelligent.

Why? So that you know you ought to isolate. (unless, of course, you isolated anyway, just in case it was covid - then again, perhaps one should isolate for any such bugs, if possible).
But yeah, do not panic, get vaccines and boosters, be intelligent, I agree with all of that.

 

[Ruth Harris]

I picked up a bug a week ago, probably omicron. Wife wanted me to get tested. Why? I'm not dying, feels like a crappy cold. No fever. Just one of those things you have to ride out if your healthy and not panic prone. But get the vaccines and the boosters and be intelligent.

Why? So that you know you ought to isolate. (unless, of course, you isolated anyway, just in case it was covid).

Actually, my opinion is that if you think you have it you should be tested so that the statistics are reported more accurately to the public. Yes, isolating is important but quality statistics can have a big impact on a lot of people.

Ruth

 

[Angra Mainyu]

I picked up a bug a week ago, probably omicron. Wife wanted me to get tested. Why? I'm not dying, feels like a crappy cold. No fever. Just one of those things you have to ride out if your healthy and not panic prone. But get the vaccines and the boosters and be intelligent.

Why? So that you know you ought to isolate. (unless, of course, you isolated anyway, just in case it was covid).

Actually, my opinion is that if you think you have it you should be tested so that the statistics are reported more accurately to the public. Yes, isolating is important but quality statistics can have a big impact on a lot of people.

Ruth

True, that is also a relevant factor to keep in mind. But while a single reported case probably won't make a big difference, a non-isolated person has a considerably higher chance of passing on the virus. Then again, isolation is less important with Omicron than Delta (but without a test and given that both variants are circulating in the US, there seems to be no way of telling which one it is.), and generally much less important than before due to a much lower mortality rate due to both vaccinations and previous infections.

Still, it is understandable that people may want not to get tested, given it can be pretty painful (and last for days), and the isolation measures can be somewhat draconian - I'm not sure what they are over there. Still, I think one should get tested regardless, if one suspects one has covid.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Community spread omicron was detected in Russia.
I wonder if we get 200K a day like GB

Or a lot more, given that the Russian population is much larger and less vaccinated. Fortunately, it appears deaths are not rising where Omicron spreads, afaik.