Covid-19 miscellany

[Loren Pechtel]

Herd immunity requires 100 * (1- 1/R0)% immune.

A minimum value of the R0 of Delta is 5. 100 * (1 - 1/5) = 80%, just barely enough if everyone is vaccinated. They're not.

Where do you get the minimum value of R0 for the Delta variant?

And that 5 is only for non-immunized people.

It is less for immunized people.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57431420

If the vaccine were perfect protection then you would need 80% immune to get herd immunity if the R0 were 5. At 8 (the upper end of the range) herd immunity requires 88% immune. Note that in reality the vaccine doesn't even provide 88% protection against Delta, let alone 100%.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

We have a pretty high vaccination rate in my area, so it is a bit of a mystery why pretty much 100% of people I saw in the stores were wearing masks. People still driving around by themselves in their car wearing masks as well.

The vaccine can't stop Delta, sensible people are still wearing masks.

As for masks when in the car by themselves--you don't understand why people do this. Of course there's no danger in the car, but there are two reasons not to remove it:

1) Convenience. You're going to A and then a short distance away B. Why bother to remove it between?

2) Removal safety. While in theory you should not be touching your mask to remove it the practicality is another matter. I can perfectly well remove mine only touching the straps--but there's a decent chance I snap a strap in the process. Since we don't have the level of supply that permits treating them as single use I'm forced to remove it by lifting the mask off and up--which means I'm touching my face in the process. I only do that after I have cleaned my hands, either by washing or with hand sanitizer.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

There are some annoyances about wearing a mask. One of my big ones is parking in a store parking lot, walking to the entrance (sometimes a long way), then forgetting that I didn't put on the mask or forgot to bring it. So, I got to make the long trudge back to my truck to get my mask. That has probably happened to me a few dozen times, though less often these last few months as it gets ingrained in my head. The other thing for me personally is that I'm 60 years old now, and I have a job where I'm on my feet all day long, doing physically demanding work at times. It gets hard to breathe sometimes (especially when its 100 deg outside) and it fogs up your reading glasses.

My mask and a backup lives in the car. I've had to go back for it once since this blew up.

I do agree working hard outside in 100 degree weather would make a mask unpleasant.

 

[untermensche]

Herd immunity requires 100 * (1- 1/R0)% immune.

A minimum value of the R0 of Delta is 5. 100 * (1 - 1/5) = 80%, just barely enough if everyone is vaccinated. They're not.

Where do you get the minimum value of R0 for the Delta variant?

And that 5 is only for non-immunized people.

It is less for immunized people.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57431420

If the vaccine were perfect protection then you would need 80% immune to get herd immunity if the R0 were 5. At 8 (the upper end of the range) herd immunity requires 88% immune. Note that in reality the vaccine doesn't even provide 88% protection against Delta, let alone 100%.

Wrong.

That only holds true in a population that has no protection from a vaccine.

Your numbers are garbage.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Vaccination has picked up the pace to some extent over here, and now I got a turn to get my first jab next Wednesday.

Even a month ago, it looked like it was going to take a lot longer, but some of the logistical and political roadblocks with AZ have been significantly lessened, and they bought more doses of the Sinopharm vaccine. Now while they won't tell me which vaccine I'll be getting until right after I get the jab, based on the news of recent shipments, it seems I've been unlucky: I will very probably get a shot of Sinopharm, which has turned out to be far less effective in real world local conditions than either AZ or Sputnik, and which seems to be one of the two worst vaccines in use in the world (the other one is Sinovac).

Oh well, it's better than nothing. Maybe I'll get lucky and develop a reasonably good degree of immunity, but I'm not counting on it.

In other news, the final part of the production of Sputnik V has begun here (though awaiting the green light both locally and from Gamaleya), though the vaccine is still sent from Russia in bulk, then separated here. Full local production is only scheduled for next year, but still, partial local production will further increase vaccination rate.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57431420

If the vaccine were perfect protection then you would need 80% immune to get herd immunity if the R0 were 5. At 8 (the upper end of the range) herd immunity requires 88% immune. Note that in reality the vaccine doesn't even provide 88% protection against Delta, let alone 100%.

Wrong.

That only holds true in a population that has no protection from a vaccine.

Your numbers are garbage.

Is that true? There is a formula that was used when no one was vaccinated. Let's say it gave an answer of 70% for herd immunity at the time. It sounds like you are saying one month from then if 10% had been vaccinated, they'd have to rerun the numbers with ~4.5 instead of 5...but then they'd get something less than 70% of _total_ population needing vaccine.

Needless to say you do have to do something complicated and it IS because of the past but it's both taking into account which vaccinations and strain transmissibility. Right now alpha is predominant--worse than original- but gamma was growing faster and more transmissible than alpha. It was at 20% of the population days ago. Delta is even more transmissible than gamma and perhaps at 13% by now. I bet by 2 weeks they will both be at 30% of virus population. The transmissibility jumps are big, like on the order of relative 50% each time.

The last statistic I have for Georgia which is from days ago was 35% double dosed and 8% single dosed. To put this in perspective, not 50% of the population in Georgia is vaccinated but the transmissibility has grown by ~50% let's say twice so we are being conservative.

I will add again that when you have that many people running around unvaccinated plus 8% 1-dosers running around all maskless, you are creating a giant petri dish with selection pressure to beat the vaccine.

 

[TSwizzle]

Took a trip to the supermarket today. The majority of people were wearing masks but there were quite a few people not wearing masks. No high fives from the non maskers but eye contact and a smile from a few. Another week or so and I expect the maskers will be the minority.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Vaccination has picked up the pace to some extent over here, and now I got a turn to get my first jab next Wednesday.

Even a month ago, it looked like it was going to take a lot longer, but some of the logistical and political roadblocks with AZ have been significantly lessened, and they bought more doses of the Sinopharm vaccine. Now while they won't tell me which vaccine I'll be getting until right after I get the jab, based on the news of recent shipments, it seems I've been unlucky: I will very probably get a shot of Sinopharm, which has turned out to be far less effective in real world local conditions than either AZ or Sputnik, and which seems to be one of the two worst vaccines in use in the world (the other one is Sinovac).

Oh well, it's better than nothing. Maybe I'll get lucky and develop a reasonably good degree of immunity, but I'm not counting on it.

In other news, the final part of the production of Sputnik V has begun here (though awaiting the green light both locally and from Gamaleya), though the vaccine is still sent from Russia in bulk, then separated here. Full local production is only scheduled for next year, but still, partial local production will further increase vaccination rate.

AZ is not good. That is probably why Biden held off on it. Pfizer is the best.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Took a trip to the supermarket today. The majority of people were wearing masks but there were quite a few people not wearing masks. No high fives from the non maskers but eye contact and a smile from a few. Another week or so and I expect the maskers will be the minority.

I developed symptoms on Thursday. I had a sore throat. Next day lump in my throat. Coughing. Saturday coughing, runny nose, and tonight chills. I really felt like shit. I was fatigued. Chills went away, cough decreased a little but I think I have a fever.

10 days ago from now I was getting my 13 year old vaccinated at a pharmacy. There were unvaccinated people in line and around the store. Since they were doing vaccinations all day, there were probably clouds and droplets about at a relatively high concentration. After my son got the shot, the Vaccinator said to stay close by for 15 minutes, like in the store shopping. I had not thought of that customer acquisition gimmick, nor was I thinking to go to the car. I was just thinking instinctively to keep my son close to medical professionals.

Unvaccinated people shopping were not all socially distancing. One kid and his father passed us 4 times. The kid and father were not wearing the masks on their noses. Both my son and I were wearing masks even though I am 2xvaccinated.

Both my son and I got symptoms Thursday. Mine have become way worse. His are going away.

I isolate a lot. I have high blood pressure and chronic respiratory issues requiring a pneumonia shot. I have sleep apnea and sometimes get less than 3 hours of sleep a night. My sleep study said I get lower oxygen and 106 events per hour. So my 3 hours is more like 1 hour quality sleep. The CPAP doesn't work for me. Needless to say, my immune system is probably not great.

Now, the pharmacy was 1 of 3 places I went last 3 weeks. It was the only place I went with my son. So it is plausible I got it there and plausible the "it" is covid. Had I been my normally risk averse self, I would have gone to the car for 15 minutes, then left. Everyone was telling me it was safe now, so I started loosening up.

I might get emergency tested tomorrow unless it is significantly better in the morning.

 

[barbos]

Don2, are you saying you got infected even after being vaccinated?
What vaccine did you have and when?
Your symptoms suggest Delta, it is reportedly similar to common cold in terms of symptoms.
Ordinary masks are even more useless against maskless people with Delta than ordinary C19.
You need N95 type.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Don2, are you saying you got infected even after being vaccinated?

It seems very plausible.

What vaccine did you have and when?

Pfizer. I am two-dosed. I have been two-dosed for weeks. I can't remember, but the window of 2 weeks after dose 2 has definitely been exceeded some time.

Your symptoms suggest Delta, it is reportedly similar to common cold in terms of symptoms.

Yes.

Ordinary masks are even more useless against maskless people with Delta than ordinary C19.

Yes, both ordinary masks and social distancing at 6 feet were always meager. You really need this and a proper ventilation system; or N95 masks; or stay 30 feet away for 3 hours in space-time which is impracticable in societies with our population densities and dependencies.

You need N95 type.

I used to use an N95 mask but then the elastics broke. I have another spare one I forgot about.

So I will start using that one. Thanks for reminding me.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Vaccination has picked up the pace to some extent over here, and now I got a turn to get my first jab next Wednesday.

Even a month ago, it looked like it was going to take a lot longer, but some of the logistical and political roadblocks with AZ have been significantly lessened, and they bought more doses of the Sinopharm vaccine. Now while they won't tell me which vaccine I'll be getting until right after I get the jab, based on the news of recent shipments, it seems I've been unlucky: I will very probably get a shot of Sinopharm, which has turned out to be far less effective in real world local conditions than either AZ or Sputnik, and which seems to be one of the two worst vaccines in use in the world (the other one is Sinovac).

Oh well, it's better than nothing. Maybe I'll get lucky and develop a reasonably good degree of immunity, but I'm not counting on it.

In other news, the final part of the production of Sputnik V has begun here (though awaiting the green light both locally and from Gamaleya), though the vaccine is still sent from Russia in bulk, then separated here. Full local production is only scheduled for next year, but still, partial local production will further increase vaccination rate.

AZ is not good. That is probably why Biden held off on it. Pfizer is the best.

What is your evidence that it is not good?

Results clearly indicate it is. Moderna and Pfizer are excellent. I'm not sure which one is best, but one of those two. AZ and Sputnik are alright. Sinovac and Sinopharm are much worse (look at Bahrain, EUA, Chile , etc.).

And Biden choose a course of action that predictably resulted in many more fatalities (I'm not sure how many, but a lot) and many, many more seriously ill people, by not allowing people to use tens of millions of doses of AZ, which he could either release in the US (he probably has the authority to do that regardless of the FDA), or else give it to other countries that already use it, and could have saved a lot of people from infection, serious illness or death. I'm not sure why he would do that. I definitely would prefer AZ or Sputnik to Sinopharm. But probably I will get Sinopharm, though there is a slim chance I might get one of the other two.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Took a trip to the supermarket today. The majority of people were wearing masks but there were quite a few people not wearing masks. No high fives from the non maskers but eye contact and a smile from a few. Another week or so and I expect the maskers will be the minority.

I developed symptoms on Thursday. I had a sore throat. Next day lump in my throat. Coughing. Saturday coughing, runny nose, and tonight chills. I really felt like shit. I was fatigued. Chills went away, cough decreased a little but I think I have a fever.

10 days ago from now I was getting my 13 year old vaccinated at a pharmacy. There were unvaccinated people in line and around the store. Since they were doing vaccinations all day, there were probably clouds and droplets about at a relatively high concentration. After my son got the shot, the Vaccinator said to stay close by for 15 minutes, like in the store shopping. I had not thought of that customer acquisition gimmick, nor was I thinking to go to the car. I was just thinking instinctively to keep my son close to medical professionals.

Unvaccinated people shopping were not all socially distancing. One kid and his father passed us 4 times. The kid and father were not wearing the masks on their noses. Both my son and I were wearing masks even though I am 2xvaccinated.

Both my son and I got symptoms Thursday. Mine have become way worse. His are going away.

I isolate a lot. I have high blood pressure and chronic respiratory issues requiring a pneumonia shot. I have sleep apnea and sometimes get less than 3 hours of sleep a night. My sleep study said I get lower oxygen and 106 events per hour. So my 3 hours is more like 1 hour quality sleep. The CPAP doesn't work for me. Needless to say, my immune system is probably not great.

Now, the pharmacy was 1 of 3 places I went last 3 weeks. It was the only place I went with my son. So it is plausible I got it there and plausible the "it" is covid. Had I been my normally risk averse self, I would have gone to the car for 15 minutes, then left. Everyone was telling me it was safe now, so I started loosening up.

I might get emergency tested tomorrow unless it is significantly better in the morning.

Sorry, I hadn't read this post when I replied to the previous one. Sorry that you're feeling sick. I hope you get better. We can always debate stuff some other time.

 

[barbos]

Sinovac/Sinopharm I understand are pretty primitive - just chopped up viruses. Results are not great.
All normal (Moderna/Pfizer/AZ/Sputhik) vaccines target specific parts of the virus which are considered stable and don't mutate. They are much more effective.
AZ does cause some reaction and death in some people. The rest does not seem to have data which suggest severe reaction/death.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Vaccination has picked up the pace to some extent over here, and now I got a turn to get my first jab next Wednesday.

Even a month ago, it looked like it was going to take a lot longer, but some of the logistical and political roadblocks with AZ have been significantly lessened, and they bought more doses of the Sinopharm vaccine. Now while they won't tell me which vaccine I'll be getting until right after I get the jab, based on the news of recent shipments, it seems I've been unlucky: I will very probably get a shot of Sinopharm, which has turned out to be far less effective in real world local conditions than either AZ or Sputnik, and which seems to be one of the two worst vaccines in use in the world (the other one is Sinovac).

Oh well, it's better than nothing. Maybe I'll get lucky and develop a reasonably good degree of immunity, but I'm not counting on it.

In other news, the final part of the production of Sputnik V has begun here (though awaiting the green light both locally and from Gamaleya), though the vaccine is still sent from Russia in bulk, then separated here. Full local production is only scheduled for next year, but still, partial local production will further increase vaccination rate.

AZ is not good. That is probably why Biden held off on it. Pfizer is the best.

What is your evidence that it is not good?

It was already discussed in thread. The numbers for effectiveness are worse than Pfizer/Moderna. Here is an article:

The Public Health England study looked at health data from 1,054 people of different ages and ethnicities in April and May.

The study said the Pfizer vaccine was 88% effective against the B.1.617.2 variant, first found in India, 2 weeks after the second dose. The Pfizer vaccine was 93% effective against the variant found in the U.K., known as B.1.1.7, two weeks after the second dose.

Two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine were 60% effective against the B.1.617.2 variant and 66% effective against B.1.1.7, the study said.

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covi...zer-astrazeneca-vaccines-indian-variant-study

Results clearly indicate it is. Moderna and Pfizer are excellent. I'm not sure which one is best, but one of those two. AZ and Sputnik are alright. Sinovac and Sinopharm are much worse (look at Bahrain, EUA, Chile , etc.).

I agree that AZ _was_ alright, but now with the rapid non-linear growth of variant Delta, AZ is not good. It is 60% effective at 2 doses.

And Biden choose a course of action that predictably resulted in many more fatalities ...

Well, hold on here. It may have made sense to assess the situation, let studies complete on effectiveness of AZ against Delta, check spread and check which countries may be good at stopping Delta without the vaccine. I mean, if he sent it to a country with high Gamma rate or high Alpha rate instead of Delta that might be best but he may not have known that or which specific places to send it to. The other thing is that there is a limit on supply and so people are not going to be triple or qadruple dosed anytime soon (boosters or more than one vaccine). So once you tell people to take the less effective AZ, they are locked in for some time. So you want to make sure it will benefit them.

Sorry, I hadn't read this post when I replied to the previous one. Sorry that you're feeling sick. I hope you get better.

Thanks man.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Sinovac/Sinopharm I understand are pretty primitive - just chopped up viruses. Results are not great.
All normal (Moderna/Pfizer/AZ/Sputhik) vaccines target specific parts of the virus which are considered stable and don't mutate. They are much more effective.
AZ does cause some reaction and death in some people. The rest does not seem to have data which suggest severe reaction/death.

True (well, J&J also might cause something like that, it seems), but it's a very tiny fraction of people, and most survive. Overall, it's safer than the risk of covid, and helps protect others as well. Just comparing countries that use mostly AZ vs. Sinovac or Sinopharm show very different outcomes, and the number of people dying of blood clots remains very low as far as I know.

 

[barbos]

I am surprised to see AZ is only 66% against "normal" british variant.
Even then, GB was doing pretty great with their AZ until recent spike.
Delta is just more transmissible and vaccinations alone is not enough. This shit will continue for this year

 

[barbos]

I used to use an N95 mask but then the elastics broke. I have another spare one I forgot about.

I started fixing mine. Even though I have a bunch of them. I just hope they are effective even after long use.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

I am surprised to see AZ is only 66% against "normal" british variant.
Even then, GB was doing pretty great with their AZ until recent spike.
Delta is just more transmissible and vaccinations alone is not enough. This shit will continue for this year

That's effectiveness against illness, not against serious illness or death though.

 

[barbos]

I am surprised to see AZ is only 66% against "normal" british variant.
Even then, GB was doing pretty great with their AZ until recent spike.
Delta is just more transmissible and vaccinations alone is not enough. This shit will continue for this year

That's effectiveness against illness, not against serious illness or death though.

Well, pfizer is ~90-92% effective against illness then. And they were all 100% effective against death. Not sure how it is now. I suspect with large statistics, we have now, some people did die even after being fully vaccinated.