Democrats 2020

[Treedbear]

Very impressed with Warren's performance at a Manchester, NH rally over the weekend that was televised on C-Span. She's got lots of confidence and a bit of panache, and she interacts extremely well with the audience. I'd be very surprized if she doesn't come out on top in NH. I haven't seen a candidate with her self-assurance in a long time.

ETA - Added link. I mean she just comes across as so natural in a mid-western kind of way.

Funny then that she's been dropping in a recent poll.
Warren nosedives in new nationwide poll

That is disheartening. But I was talking about New Hampshire.

 

[Toni]

You think Eisenhower is hard to say?

No.

How exactly have you heard it mispronounced?

I have not. But it is certainly more remarkable than Bush or Clinton.

Eisenhower is pretty straight forward for most Americans, especially those of a vintage to have voted for Eisenhower who was a very famous general and whose face and name was very, very familiar to virtually all Americans. Pete is the mayor of a small city in flyover country who was heard of by exactly no one outside of his neck of the woods until he decided to run for POTUS.

OTOH, I was and remain extremely proud of the fact that enough Americans voted for a black man with a foreign --and Muslim sounding name to elect Obama. I was actually surprised that he won, because of his name, mostly but also because of his skin. I really never thought I'd live to see the day that a black person could be elected POTUS.

 

[TV and credit cards]

OTOH, I was and remain extremely proud of the fact that enough Americans voted for a black man with a foreign --and Muslim sounding name to elect Obama. I was actually surprised that he won, because of his name, mostly but also because of his skin. I really never thought I'd live to see the day that a black person could be elected POTUS.

Quinnipiac

As the Democratic candidates debate over the direction of the party, only 14 percent of Democrats and independent voters who lean Democratic say that President Obama was “not liberal enough,” while 80 percent say he was “about right.”

I guess enough of us do not look at skin color. I hope the same can be said for sexual orientation. For me, in a candidate, be just liberal enough, intelligent, and well spoken. Obama was that candidate. After that I just hope what sits in the Oval Office is something close to what I heard campaigning.

Medicare for All has grown increasingly unpopular among all American voters, as 36 percent say it is a good idea and 52 percent say it is a bad idea. In a March 26, 2019 poll, 43 percent said good idea, while 45 percent said bad idea. The highest support came in an August 3, 2017 poll when voters said it was a good idea 51–38 percent.

Will Warren tack toward the center?

 

[Derec]

That is disheartening. But I was talking about New Hampshire.

Oh, I think it is heartening.

 

[angelo]

Nice Write Up in the Associated Press

He may not make it in 2020 but he'll be President Pete one of these days.

He would need to change his surname. Who would vote for some guy that they can't even spell his name correctly.

You think he should have taken his husband’s name?

Which is? [I had no idea he's gay]

 

[angelo]

The state of play in the Dems side of politics. Unless Bloomberg's figure rise considerably, you Trump haters had better prepare for the worst!

https://gellerreport.com/2019/11/commie-bernie-tax-the-poor.html/

 

[Patooka]

You think he should have taken his husband’s name?

Which is? [I had no idea he's gay]

Never before have I seen the Dunning–Kruger effect illustrated so perfectly. But please continue with your insightful comments on the US Presidential election.

 

[angelo]

You think he should have taken his husband’s name?

Which is? [I had no idea he's gay]

Never before have I seen the Dunning–Kruger effect illustrated so perfectly. But please continue with your insightful comments on the US Presidential election.

Even sarcasm is taken seriously by seriously deluded leftist Democrats!

 

[ZiprHead]

Never before have I seen the Dunning–Kruger effect illustrated so perfectly. But please continue with your insightful comments on the US Presidential election.

Even sarcasm is taken seriously by seriously deluded leftist Democrats!

Your posts are always a welcome addition to the forum. They're always so full of facts and so well sourced that it is with a great amount of difficulty to refute them.

Now THAT'S sarcasm.

 

[angelo]

Never before have I seen the Dunning–Kruger effect illustrated so perfectly. But please continue with your insightful comments on the US Presidential election.

Even sarcasm is taken seriously by seriously deluded leftist Democrats!

Your posts are always a welcome addition to the forum. They're always so full of facts and so well sourced that it is with a great amount of difficulty to refute them.

Now THAT'S sarcasm.

Sarcasm is also that this forum is a neutral forum for open discussion by all ideologies and not a mainly left leaning socialist talk fest. Now that's true sarcasm!

This Quora blog explains why the Dems have turned sharp left and destined to spend at least the next 5-10 years licking their self inflicted wounds.

https://www.quora.com/Why-do-the-De...-in-defeating-Donald-Trump/answer/Paul-Noel-5

 

[ZiprHead]

Your posts are always a welcome addition to the forum. They're always so full of facts and so well sourced that it is with a great amount of difficulty to refute them.

Now THAT'S sarcasm.

Sarcasm is also that this forum is a neutral forum for open discussion by all ideologies and not a mainly left leaning socialist talk fest. Now that's true sarcasm!

This Quora blog explains why the Dems have turned sharp left and destined to spend at least the next 5-10 years licking their self inflicted wounds.

https://www.quora.com/Why-do-the-De...-in-defeating-Donald-Trump/answer/Paul-Noel-5

"Hillary Clinton for example is and always was a Maoist. (Yes a communist of the worst order) "

 

[southernhybrid]

My sister and I were discussing the Democratic candidates this morning. She told me that a lot of Sanders supporters won't vote for Biden if he becomes the nominee, and I told her that a lot of Biden supporters won't vote for Sanders if he were to become the nominee. That's how divisive the Democratic Party has become. I'm among the group that says they will vote for anyone but Trump.

It's also interesting that the majority of Buttigieg supporters are over 65. At least according to an article that I read last night. He reminds them of a well mannered son, plus he has come out with something that I think is called the "Gray New Deal". I'll have to look it up but I think part of it is promising older adults that long term care will be paid by Medicare. Long term care is the one thing that eats up older adults savings more than anything else. Maybe that will be a winner for Pete, since people over 65 are the most reliable primary voters. But, Pete still has gained hardly any support among black voters, who are a very important part of the Democratic base. I"m not sure that he will be able to convince enough black primary voters that he's the man they need.

 

[southernhybrid]

Warren's wealth tax has wide support

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/29/business/economy/economy-politics-survey.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Senator Elizabeth Warren’s plan to tax the assets of America’s wealthiest individuals continues to draw broad support from voters, across party, gender and educational lines. Only one slice of the electorate opposes it staunchly: Republican men with college degrees.

Not surprisingly, that is also the profile of many who’d be hit by Ms. Warren’s so-called wealth tax, which has emerged as the breakout economic proposal in the Democratic presidential primary race.

From what I've read, wealth taxes usually don't work very well as it's hard to assess assets on a yearly basis and easy to hide such assets. Still, according to the link, the wealth tax is a more popular tax increase than others. I'm highly skeptical that it would ever become law, myself. I guess it sounds good, but I doubt many people have seriously thought about the details of such tax plans.

I would prefer a more progressive tax on those who most benefit from our laws and infrastructure. In other words, tax the wealthiest a higher percentage of income tax than what they currently pay. That would, imo, be a lot simpler than a wealth tax. Get rid of loopholes that benefit the ultra wealthy. Most of the other candidates support that, including the billionaires who are running. ( No, I don't think ether of them will become the nominee )

 

[TV and credit cards]

My sister and I were discussing the Democratic candidates this morning. She told me that a lot of Sanders supporters won't vote for Biden if he becomes the nominee, and I told her that a lot of Biden supporters won't vote for Sanders if he were to become the nominee. That's how divisive the Democratic Party has become. I'm among the group that says they will vote for anyone but Trump.

It's also interesting that the majority of Buttigieg supporters are over 65. At least according to an article that I read last night. He reminds them of a well mannered son, plus he has come out with something that I think is called the "Gray New Deal". I'll have to look it up but I think part of it is promising older adults that long term care will be paid by Medicare. Long term care is the one thing that eats up older adults savings more than anything else. Maybe that will be a winner for Pete, since people over 65 are the most reliable primary voters. But, Pete still has gained hardly any support among black voters, who are a very important part of the Democratic base. I"m not sure that he will be able to convince enough black primary voters that he's the man they need.

Sounds like the NYT article, O.K., Mayor: Why 37-Year-Old Pete Buttigieg Is Attracting Boomers. It would help if the guy looked like he was 37 and not 27.

Buttigieg theorized that he was attracting older Americans because they might have “a more generous understanding of what experience means.” “Every older person was a younger person once,” he said. “And maybe it demystifies a little bit the extent to which age represents readiness.”

Asked in the interview why he was having more trouble connecting with younger voters, he pointed to their “strong sense of impatience about the changes that need to come and the extent to which it feels like they’ve grown up in an America that just tolerates the intolerable.”

 

[Elixir]

My sister and I were discussing the Democratic candidates this morning. She told me that a lot of Sanders supporters won't vote for Biden if he becomes the nominee, and I told her that a lot of Biden supporters won't vote for Sanders if he were to become the nominee. That's how divisive the Democratic Party has become. I'm among the group that says they will vote for anyone but Trump.

It's also interesting that the majority of Buttigieg supporters are over 65. At least according to an article that I read last night. He reminds them of a well mannered son, plus he has come out with something that I think is called the "Gray New Deal". I'll have to look it up but I think part of it is promising older adults that long term care will be paid by Medicare. Long term care is the one thing that eats up older adults savings more than anything else. Maybe that will be a winner for Pete, since people over 65 are the most reliable primary voters. But, Pete still has gained hardly any support among black voters, who are a very important part of the Democratic base. I"m not sure that he will be able to convince enough black primary voters that he's the man they need.

A boon for tax lawyers, then? Steal from billionaires, give it to multimillionaires...
Of well, I suppose it would soften the income curve just a bit on the extreme high end...

 

[lpetrich]

Sounds like the NYT article, O.K., Mayor: Why 37-Year-Old Pete Buttigieg Is Attracting Boomers. It would help if the guy looked like he was 37 and not 27.

Does he seem like some male bimbo?


It looks like Kamala Harris's campaign is falling apart, and she may not make it to Iowa or New Hampshire.

How Kamala Harris’s Campaign Unraveled - The New York Times

Ms. Harris is the only 2020 Democrat who has fallen hard out of the top tier of candidates. She has proved to be an uneven campaigner who changes her message and tactics to little effect and has a staff torn into factions.

She's now polling 3-4% (RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination)

Yet, even to some Harris allies, her decline is more predictable than surprising. In one instance after another, Ms. Harris and her closest advisers made flawed decisions about which states to focus on, issues to emphasize and opponents to target, all the while refusing to make difficult personnel choices to impose order on an unwieldy campaign, according to more than 50 current and former campaign staff members and allies, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose private conversations and assessments involving the candidate.

Many of her own advisers are now pointing a finger directly at Ms. Harris. In interviews several of them criticized her for going on the offensive against rivals, only to retreat, and for not firmly choosing a side in the party’s ideological feud between liberals and moderates. She also created an organization with a campaign chairwoman, Maya Harris, who goes unchallenged in part because she is Ms. Harris’s sister, and a manager, Mr. Rodriguez, who could not be replaced without likely triggering the resignations of the candidate’s consulting team. Even at this late date, aides said it’s unclear who’s in charge of the campaign.

She had won previous races, so why is she in so much trouble now?

Kamala Harris' 2020 campaign falling apart from inside: report

In an excoriating resignation letter obtained by the Times, Harris’ outgoing state operations director Kelly Mehlenbacher accused the campaign of treating staff appallingly and having no plan to win.

“This is my third presidential campaign and I have never seen an organization treat its staff so poorly,” Mehlenbacher wrote in the Nov. 11 letter.

According to a Politico report published Wednesday, Mehlenbacher, a former staffer for Hillary’s Clinton campaign, has already accepted a role in rival Michael Bloomberg’s camp.

Seems like KH's campaign organization is disintegrating.

 

[Derec]

She had won previous races, so why is she in so much trouble now?

I think her downfall started with her attack on Biden over busing in the 70s. The "I was that girl" campaign in particular and her "blacker than thou" (even though she is mixed six ways to Sunday and should have embraced that) positioning backfired in the end.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Discusses these theories:

1. 2020 was never going to be her year in the first place
2. Biden and Warren are just really strong candidates
3. Harris has not run a good campaign
4. She’s a woman of color in a party wary of nominating someone who it feels won’t connect with white voters in the Midwest in the general election

All of the above could be true. The first three definitely are. She isn't as well known as either Biden or Warren. Biden is there on name recognition alone, and Warren is there because she is seen as pushing progressive policy. KH is just another wannabe with nothing of substance. She clearly wants to be president because she wants to be president, and not to implement any particular policy. She has close ties to the Clintons and that would have been her only path forward (insider Democrat maneuvering) but Biden, and then Buttigieg are already ahead of her and she has no path. She can't go to the left as Bernie and Warren are already there. She has no unique ideas like Yang. She never had a chance really, especially after Tulsi took her down and exposed her.

As for her race and gender, yes that may be a factor. But let's not pretend Obama, a more black looking black man was president and Hillary took the nomination previously and Warren is polling near the top right now.

What AOC has called "saltine cracker" centrism: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Talks Centrism on Pod Save America

“[The political establishment] thinks that running to the center, moderating our policies, being as close to a Saltine cracker as possible is what’s going to make us win elections... and I don’t think that that’s the case,” she said. “I think what animates non-voters is feeling like someone is really fighting for them.”

Absolutely. AOC hit this square on the head.

I do hear a lot of people wishing to play it safe and make sure the nominee is someone who will beat trump. IMO, that’s the broad appeal of Biden.

That's his pitch, but it isn't true. He is actually one of the most likely to lose to Trump. With Biden's frequent gaffes, Trump would have a field day with him. The three polling as most likely to beat Trump are Bernie, Tulsi, and Yang, because they can strip away his supporters (each for different reasons).

This is a pretty awful thing to say, but IMO, the Democrats’ best hope is if Bernie suffers another heart attack, this one fatal. He and Biden are just plain too old no matter how much anyone might like them or their political stances.

If they are both too old, why are you only wishing death on one of them?

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Let me point out clearly - I LIKE the idea of universal government healthcare. I WANT it. I would support it with additional private health care add-ons for those who are wealthy - I’m fine with a two-tier system, as long as the first tier is as good as it should be.

It won't be. A second tier will ensure that. Doctors will go where the money is. If they can make more in the private system, that is where they will go, leaving substandard care for the rest of you. I say this as a Canadian who has been fighting here to keep this from happening here. No 2nd tier. It will hurt everyone.

As for Hillary (your post mentioned her early history of championing universal single payer), you have a good point. She WAS all for it. And she did get raked over the coals for it by the Republicans. But unlike you, who thinks she's still for it but has been beaten down into wanting slow incremental change, I think she's come away with the experience thinking it cant be done and that she sold out somewhere along the line. I think a fresh and more modern take on it, from someone who hasn't been beaten down like that is in order. The public opinion on health care , as shown in poll after poll aftee poll has moved to support Universal single payer. You CAN have it now... If you will push for it.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

Mods, can we add an "ok boomer" emoji please?



Counterpoint: Clinton and her ilk failed to pass health care reform they wanted and assumed their failure meant it was impossible for anyone to do. What you go on to refer to as "numbers" is, predictably, the number of political officials who support the thing you want, not the number of people in the country who want it and are willing to fight for it. That's the difference between Clinton's approach (and Warren's, and Biden's, and Castro's, and Obama's, etc.) and Sanders' approach: the latter knows that Washington politicians are currently a lost cause and doesn't waste time trying to get them to buy into his plans. If they do, great. If not, his focus is on building a popular movement that will pressure them until they do, through withholding their votes or their labor. Mass mobilization of the public has always been the only effective means of change in society, and only one candidate in the race is aware of this.


We are not on the same side, and I hate be the one to break that to you. And the side I'm on is larger than you think, and is growing. Your side believes the system works, and that the way to make people's lives better is to elect the right representatives into office to inch forward a legislative agenda. I believe the system does not work--or works as intended, but for the ruling class--and the way to make people's lives better is to empower them to subvert, disrupt, overpower, and eventually transform the system to one that isn't broken and serves us all. And you know what? Even if my side isn't the majority yet, I'm not foolish enough to think that the goal of politics is to channel a set of policies into an existing demographic, it's to channel a demographic into championing the right policies. The most insidious lie of the centrist liberal is that "the voting public" is a static entity that can't be altered, only appeased as it currently is.

You're talking about the things that have been tried as if, time and again, it was not exactly the kind of message you are pushing--gradual, accommodating, inclusive, stage-managed focus group bullshit--that has repeatedly handed the levers of government to the opposition. Was 2016 just a confusing fever dream from start to finish for you people? Clinton was the very embodiment of all the things you're advocating, and she lost! So did Kerry, and so did Gore.

But not Obama, who didn't say much about incremental steps but instead gave speeches (however phony they turned out to be) about grassroots, bottom-up political realignment. Sound familiar?

You still have yet to acknowledge that more of Clinton's supporters snubbed Obama in 2008 than Sanders' supporters snubbed Clinton in 2016, but in Obama's case it did not matter because he had a popular movement built primarily by small donors and organizers... sound familiar yet?

It seems to me that part of the Trump/Russian propaganda effort involves influencing those who would prefer a total health care tear-down and rebuild, to reject anything short of that stance. I'm sure the Internet Research Agency motto would be "divide et livorem superem" if Russian was a Romance rather than a Cyrillic language. If they can get PH to stay home if Mayor Pete gets the nomination, or make someone vote third party if Liz Warren gets nominated, their work is done. The false myth that Hillary was against universal health care is a great tool in that effort.

This is what you've become. There's a chance right here and now to actually move the needle in a fundamental way, and you're still going on about Russians. It's the ultimate get-out-of-thought-free card for you.

Excellent post. Hit the nail directly on the head. How can people not learn from history? Obama did go with dreams of hope and change and big moves, and he won. A positive bold vision wins elections for liberals. And the whole country is done with the status quo politics, as shown by even Trump being able to win o that strategy.