Democrats 2020

[Jimmy Higgins]

View attachment 27561

We saw these back in 2016 too. I'm leery of trusting the polls too much. We need turnout, turnout, turnout. We need this motherfucker to lose Texas.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

I don't recall the exact way they calculated it

Here it is: Who will win the presidency?

Screenshot of the chances calculated for what ended up happening:



Link to methodology.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

We need this motherfucker to lose Texas.

Looks like that may actually happen. Note the trend thanks in no small part, no doubt, to his gross incompetence in handling the Trump virus and the completely unnecessary tanking of the economy he could have easily avoided and/or easily fix now by increasing stimulus to those who actually need it (and would in turn infuse into the economy, thus boosting it back up):

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

We need this motherfucker to lose Texas.

Looks like that may actually happen. Note the trend thanks in no small part, no doubt, to his gross incompetence in handling the Trump virus and the completely unnecessary tanking of the economy he could have easily avoided and/or easily fix now by increasing stimulus to those who actually need it (and would in turn infuse into the economy, thus boosting it back up):

Not the economy as much as the oil crash, of which he kind of didn't notice.

 

[blastula]

New York Must Hold Democratic Presidential Primary, Judge Rules - The New York Times - "The primary in June, which had been canceled over concerns about the coronavirus, should still be held, with all qualifying candidates restored to the ballot, a federal judge ruled."

The order, filed by Judge Analisa Torres of United States District Court, came in response to a lawsuit filed last week by the former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang. He sought to undo the New York State Board of Elections’ decision in late April to cancel the June 23 contest, a move it attributed to health and safety worries and the fact that the results would not change the primary’s outcome.

On Tuesday night, Douglas A. Kellner, a co-chair of the New York Board of Elections, said the board was “reviewing the decision and preparing an appeal.” And speaking on CNN, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said the presidential primary would proceed per the court’s ruling at least for the time being, but he noted the potential for an appeal.

So they're not giving up. Good Grief.

Andrew Yang������������������ on Twitter: "My statement on today’s federal ruling reinstating New York’s Democratic presidential primary: https://t.co/htrUJlTKP8" / Twitter

Judge orders Sanders, others to be reinstated on New York primary ballot | TheHill

I wouldn't give up if I were a candidate. Biden could still withdraw or get covided. I wonder if he's had it already though, every time I see him he's coughing (and into his hand).

 

[lpetrich]

Democrats file appeal to stop state’s presidential primary

Eek.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Democrats file appeal to stop state’s presidential primary

Eek.

From the article:

The Democratic members of the State’s Board of Elections voted last week to cancel the presidential primary, even though congressional and state-level primaries would continue.

That's the thing about primaries, they actually involve different races of candidates for different positions. Why would they want to cancel one race out of the whole primary but leave all the other races in there? Or more to the point, if the claim is they are basing this on principles of safety being more important than a primary election, then why are they saying the other primary elections are more important than safety? ESPECIALLY when the additional claim is that by June 23rd things will be settled enough for safe primaries in other races.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

dup

 

[lpetrich]

What Happened to Bernie’s Revolution? | Adam Lee

He starts out with "I’m going to vote for Joe Biden in November to save this country from fascism and kleptocracy, but I’m not thrilled about it." Much like AOC, I'm sure. I'm not very enthusiastic about him either.

AL's first choice was Elizabeth Warren, but he can live with Bernie Sanders. I also prefer EW - she seems like someone who can get things done.

His theory was that BS depended on these three factors:

1. A multiracial coalition of progressive young people who’d be his core voting bloc;
2. Blue-collar white voters who are socially conservative but economically liberal and would be attracted to Sanders’ kitchen-table populism, siphoning off votes from Republicans;
3. An influx of new voters who were disaffected and cynical about politics and didn’t participate in the past, but would see that Sanders was unlike other politicians and would enter the race to support him.

But that he failed with all three.

1. People between 18 and 44 didn't show up in any great numbers, despite preferring him.

2. Many of those blue-collar white voters likely voted for BS in 2016 because he was not a woman. That factor was absent for Joe Biden. Why is Bernie losing? Because he's not running against a woman | Salon.com by Amanda Marcotte

3.

There was no surge of new voters. This is the fact I found the most personally surprising. Democratic turnout is up compared to 2016, but it’s benefiting Biden. I didn’t see that coming at all.

It’s worth noting that this result disproves “accelerationist” theories, bandied about in 2016 by irresponsible people, that Donald Trump’s election would be a good thing because it would intensify people’s suffering to the point where it was unbearable and would bring the revolution that much sooner. They were only half right: Trump’s election has caused enormous suffering and hardship, but it hasn’t brought a surge of new voters or made the people who do vote significantly more progressive.

The "accelerationist" theory is believed by certain people in the far left. It fails because regimes that increase misery often make it difficult to rebel against them.

A hard truth that I think we progressives need to face is that there’s no huge reservoir of democracy-curious voters who could be activated by the right candidate. There are millions of Americans who don’t vote, but the reason isn’t that they’re waiting for a candidate who’s not like those other politicians to swoop in and sweep them off their feet. They don’t vote because they genuinely don’t care about politics, no matter what views a candidate advocates. There is voter suppression, and that can make a difference in a close race – but for the most part, everyone who wants to vote already does.

 

[lpetrich]

Adam Lee continues with how the Bernie Sanders / Elizabeth Warren wing of the Democratic Party is likely only 1/3 of it. He then compares a candidate's voter appeal to Hollywood's way of judging movie appeal, its quadrant system. Hollywood's movie assessors judge audience appeal by dividing the movie audience into four quadrants: men < 25 years old, women < 25, men > 25, and women > 25. Hollywood's producers only like to produce a movie if it appeals to at least two quadrants of the audience - a four-quadrant movie is one that appeals to all the audience.

In that sense, Barack Obama was the four-quadrant Democratic candidate. He inspired a huge coalition that included young voters, older black voters, mostly white white-collar professionals, and mostly white blue-collar workers. That coalition propelled him to a landslide victory in 2008 and a narrower but still decisive win in 2012.

Sanders, for all that I like him, is a two-quadrant candidate. He appealed to a subset of the Democratic electorate, mostly younger voters and white-collar professionals (again, like me). Unfortunately, his strongest demographics also tend to be lower-turnout and numerically smaller, and he was blown out among older black voters and blue-collar whites.

AL has a theory on why this isn't more broadly recognized. BS's fans are more active online than his non-fans.

To his credit, Sanders devoted considerable effort on outreach to black voters this time around, but he didn’t succeed in convincing them. ...

It probably didn’t help that Sanders made a habit of attacking “the Democratic establishment” ...

While this tactic fired up his most loyal supporters, it may have turned off a bloc of loyal voters, especially black voters, who consider themselves to be part of the Democratic establishment. To them, it sounded like an outsider plotting to swoop in and take over the coalition that they supported and helped to build. ...

AL notes that all the candidates, even JB, are running well to the left of how Barack Obama governed. JB proposes a public option, a sort of Medicare buy-in.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

These cancelled presidential primaries are much more important than some realize. After all, Biden is the presumptive nominee, but he doesn't have the delegate lock.

That means if the Democratic Party actually decides that a pedophile sex offender with dementia is not who they want as their candidate, all the states that cancelled their primaries have delegates not bound and can vote for someone else.

 

[Harry Bosch]

These cancelled presidential primaries are much more important than some realize. After all, Biden is the presumptive nominee, but he doesn't have the delegate lock.

That means if the Democratic Party actually decides that a pedophile sex offender with dementia is not who they want as their candidate, all the states that cancelled their primaries have delegates not bound and can vote for someone else.

Holy cow. You really think that he's that? I didn't think that you'd be on the republican cool aide drinkers!

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

These cancelled presidential primaries are much more important than some realize. After all, Biden is the presumptive nominee, but he doesn't have the delegate lock.

That means if the Democratic Party actually decides that a pedophile sex offender with dementia is not who they want as their candidate, all the states that cancelled their primaries have delegates not bound and can vote for someone else.

Holy cow. You really think that he's that? I didn't think that you'd be on the republican cool aide drinkers!

I hate them both, which means I hate your guy, which means I hate only one side and love the other.

 

[Harry Bosch]

These cancelled presidential primaries are much more important than some realize. After all, Biden is the presumptive nominee, but he doesn't have the delegate lock.

That means if the Democratic Party actually decides that a pedophile sex offender with dementia is not who they want as their candidate, all the states that cancelled their primaries have delegates not bound and can vote for someone else.

Holy cow. You really think that he's that? I didn't think that you'd be on the republican cool aide drinkers!

I hate them both, which means I hate your guy, which means I hate only one side and love the other.

Hate's a powerful emotion. Roughly, republicans represent 1/3 the country, democrats a little more than 1/3, then independents the rest. Do you honestly hate 2/3 the country?

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

I hate them both, which means I hate your guy, which means I hate only one side and love the other.

Hate's a powerful emotion. Roughly, republicans represent 1/3 the country, democrats a little more than 1/3, then independents the rest. Do you honestly hate 2/3 the country?

So roughly 2/3 of the country are active meeting-attending dues-paying convention-attending party members, who do activities like debate the party platform and party bylaws. I did not know that.

Of course that is a way to avoid addressing how my premise of hating them both leads to your conclusion that I only hate one side and love the other.

 

[southernhybrid]

These cancelled presidential primaries are much more important than some realize. After all, Biden is the presumptive nominee, but he doesn't have the delegate lock.

That means if the Democratic Party actually decides that a pedophile sex offender with dementia is not who they want as their candidate, all the states that cancelled their primaries have delegates not bound and can vote for someone else.

It's fine if you don't like him, but if you're referring to Biden, he's not the one who has obvious symptoms of dementia, and there is no evidence that he ever molested or said inappropriate things about a teenage girl. There was a time in recent decades when showing gentle affection to children wasn't equated with molestation. One woman, who from what I've read about her, seems a bit delusional has made one claim that Biden denies. Since what she claims happened 27 years ago, and you can't prove a negative, I see no reason to take her claim as truth. Plus, Biden was heavily and painstakingly vetted before Obama chose him as his VP. I take that as better evidence of his decent character than the claim of one woman who has contradictory evidence to back up her claim.

If you're referring to the claims that he made inappropriate comments about a young girl's breasts, the fact is that he wasn't even in attendance at the conference where the far right liars claims he made those remarks. Do you get your information from people like Alex Jones or that insane rag known as "Outraged Patriot" or maybe Facebook? I ask because what you have posted sounds like the nonsense that come from people and places like that.

I think Biden, unlike Trump, will choose qualified people for his cabinet, and he will listen to his advisors. Considering the alternative, the only decent thing to do is support him. And, who cares if you like or dislike a particular candidate. It's not supposed to a popularity contest about who is more likable. It's about who is best qualified to be president. I've voted for many candidates that I didn't like, but were better qualified than their opponent. It's what grown ups do.

If anyone has symptoms of mental illness, and possible early signs of dementia, as well as a long history of abusing women and saying inappropriate remarks about teenage girls, including when he entered the dressing room of some at a beauty pageant, it's the other candidate. Considering that I spent at least half of my career caring for and evaluating people who suffer from dementia, I tend to think I'm a bit more qualified than you to notice early symptoms. Don't confuse a person who has a long history of stuttering or mixing up his words, with a person who is suffering from dementia.

So, go ahead and vote for Justin. He seems totally unprepared to be president and he has no chance of winning. But, like many in 2016 who wouldn't vote for Clinton because they hated her, I imagine that's not important to you.

 

[lpetrich]

Biden Campaign Is Secretly Building a Republican Group - reaching out to "Never Trump" Republicans.

Appearing in an Instagram live chat with soccer star Megan Rapinoe on April 30, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden made a spontaneous, vague statement about how he’s been “speaking to a lot of Republicans,” including “former colleagues, who are calling and saying Joe, if you win, we’re gonna help.”

Then he showed his hand: “Matter of fact, there’s some major Republicans who are already forming ‘Republicans for Biden,’” the former vice president said. “Major officeholders.”

...
Interviews with several of the most prominent NeverTrump Republicans reveal that for now, the nascent effort is loosely defined and could ultimately take a variety of forms. But preliminary talks about messaging, engagement, leadership, and roll out are starting to be broadly sketched out, according to sources directly familiar with the matter. And the talks have happened more frequently as Biden moves solidly into general election mode.

This is sort of like Barack Obama having some Republican supporters:  Republican and conservative support for Barack Obama in 2008 I recall a bit of that for Bill Clinton, though my memory is hazy on details.

Biden Quiet on Nationwide Vote by Mail. That’s on Purpose

“Joe Biden throwing his support behind any specific legislation to expand vote-by-mail is as good as drawing a target on it in red ink,” said one person familiar with the campaign’s thinking.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

The more people who dump Trump and rejoin the sane world the better.

 

[Jarhyn]

These cancelled presidential primaries are much more important than some realize. After all, Biden is the presumptive nominee, but he doesn't have the delegate lock.

That means if the Democratic Party actually decides that a pedophile sex offender with dementia is not who they want as their candidate, all the states that cancelled their primaries have delegates not bound and can vote for someone else.

Holy cow. You really think that he's that? I didn't think that you'd be on the republican cool aide drinkers!

They really have to step it up to deflect from their own actual pedophile sex offender. You know, the Russian stooge.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Only Democrats give a shit if someone is a sexual predator. Republicans ARE all sexual predators so they’re just voting for their next Grand Wizard and line up their own wives to get fucked by him while they pathetically pull at their impotent dicks watching from the closet.