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Democrats 2024

lpetrich said:
tBecause of what such a trip seems like on the surface. Why this odd interest in New Hampshire? Iowa?
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Mayor Pete is obviously feeling out another presidential run.
I doubt he would run against Biden, but if Biden announces he will not seek reelection, it pays to be prepared.
 
southernhybrid said:
Swammerdami said:
Swammerdami said:
Bill Maher turns down the job of Messaging Czar for the Democratic Party. But I do think they should start listening to him.
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That video helps explain why some Ds are their own worst enemy and what they need to change to have a chance in upcoming elections.
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I agree. I'm still watching Maher, even when I don't agree with all of his points. I think he's right about a lot of things.
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Is this the default thread for appreciation of Bill Maher?
This video does a hilarious job of explaining how dreadfully un-woke Hollywood becomes in its quest for extreme wokeism.
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Unless both Biden AND Harris bow out, it will be no contest. Biden if he runs, Harris if he doesn't. Everything else is light speculation.
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If Biden bows out, I do not think it will be a Kamala coronation, and neither should it be. She should prove herself in a competitive primary, something she failed to do in 2020.
 
Derec said:
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Unless both Biden AND Harris bow out, it will be no contest. Biden if he runs, Harris if he doesn't. Everything else is light speculation.
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If Biden bows out, I do not think it will be a Kamala coronation, and neither should it be. She should prove herself in a competitive primary, something she failed to do in 2020.
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I would be surprised if it were not her. She is heir apparent. Yes, she should prove herself in a competitive primary, but if Biden bows out I expect the Harris primary to be as competitive as the Clinton 2016 primary.
 
Democrats adopt Biden’s new 2024 nomination plan - Wapo

Democratic leaders voted Friday to adopt the transformative early 2024 presidential nominating schedule proposed by President Biden, giving South Carolina the leadoff position, followed by a joint primary day for New Hampshire and Nevada, with later primaries by Georgia and Michigan.

The chosen states were given until Jan. 5 to demonstrate that they can hold their primary contests on their assigned dates or risk losing their positions in the calendar.
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Under the adopted rules, South Carolina would vote on Feb. 3, 2024, followed by a joint primary day in New Hampshire and Nevada three days later on Feb. 6. The Georgia primary would be Feb. 13, and the Michigan primary would be Feb. 27. The rest of the country would be free to set primaries between March 5 and June 4.

The calendar is not expected to be adopted by all the affected states, likely forcing further revisions next year before the full Democratic National Committee ratifies the schedule. New Hampshire Democrats have said they will refuse to follow the new calendar, since their state law requires New Hampshire to hold its presidential nominating contest one week before any other state primary. The Georgia secretary of state, a Republican, has not yet said he will allow the Democratic primary to move earlier.
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So surprising that Biden wants the first state he won to be first. But it'd be better than Iowa/NH.
 
blastula said:
So surprising that Biden wants the first state he won to be first.
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Yeah. It's pretty on the nose. It would also help his Veep Kamala in either 2024 or 2028.
But it'd be better than Iowa/NH.
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Why? Iowa/NH are better suited for retail politics. NH (1M) because it is small, and Iowa (3M) (being bigger than NH but still smaller than either mean (6.6M) or median (4.5M) state population) has the more participatory caucus which reduces the advantage better known and heeled candidates have in a primary system. It is no coincidence Obama and Bernie outdid uninspiring establishment candidate Hillary in the states that had cauci.
The currently proposed schedule Dem leadership does away with this tradition of retail politics, favoring establishment favorites. I do not think either Bill Clinton or Obama would have been nominated using this calendar. There would be even more uninspiring candidates like John Kerry and Hillary.

I think making SC first, and following it up with largeish states like GA and MI is a horrible idea on multiple levels.

I know the selling point of South Carolina is that it has a lot of black people. The idea being that more black people --> better, no matter what, which is just racist nonsense of course. While "only" about 1/4 of South Carolinians are black, more than half of all the Democrats are. That makes SC very lopsided compared to nationwide electorate that any candidate must appeal to in the general election. Democratic electorate is more black than general election electorate, obviously, so a candidate having support among SC primary voters is not telling you that much. Contrast that with Iowa, which is ~5% black, which would put Iowa Democrats at ~10% black or close to that. That is not far off from ~13% black share of US population. So Iowa is much better reflection of the overall electorate than SC.
At least for Democrats. Republicans are the opposite. They should want states with many blacks to go early, because then their early primary voter pool would closer resemble national electorate than if states like Iowa and NH go first. I.e. the wrong party is making this move.

SC is also a very Republican state. Trump carried the state with 55% both times and last time the state was carried by a Dem was 1976. There is also only one Dem in their congressional delegation - Jim Clyburn - for whose support it seems Biden is still making payments.

Another thing - Obama barely winning Iowa and coming very close in NH showed everybody that he is a viable general election candidate and that his race would not be a detriment. If SC went first, I do not think he would have won that state, and even if he did it would not have sent the message it did simply because how vastly different SC Dem electorate is from US demographics at large.
 
Most candidacy announcements were made in the first half of the year before, though there were some stragglers that announced over the second half of that year. The two parties are not much different in their candidates' announcement timings.

From Politico:
Yet Biden has repeatedly declined to say he’s running for reelection. That’s because, yes, he doesn’t want to trigger the Federal Election Committee, which may require him to file organizational paperwork if he was to say definitively he’s running. There’s also the more delicate matter of Biden continuing to say he’s “a respecter of fate” when asked about his plans.

The president has vented to allies about how often his age is mentioned in the press — “You think I don’t know how fucking old I am?” he said to one earlier this year. But who knows what the fates have in store for someone who just turned 80 a few weeks ago (Sorry, Mr. President!).
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What does he expect?
It’s not only the midterms that have chilled discussion about a contested primary. It’s the lingering threat of Trump and all he represents to Democrats that enforce party discipline.

“We’re all scared to death of letting our idiosyncrasies open the door to an authoritarian movement,” said Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Particularly for those eager to run if Biden doesn’t, the smarter politics is now to pledge support to the president if he runs, demonstrate you’re a team player and only make an explicit move if and when the president decides to retire.
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They likely remember the vote splitting by Ralph Nader in 2000 and Jill Stein in 2016.
 
Who might be running if Joe Biden does not run or cannot run?

Sen. Cory Booker and several Democratic governors: Gretchen Whitmer MI, Wes Moore MD, Josh Shapiro PA, Gavin Newsom CA, Jared Polis CO, J.B. Pritzker IL, and Phil Murphy NJ, though Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, J.B. Pritzker, and Jared Polis have stated that they don't intend to run.

Also rumored is Marianne Williamson.

In polling, Michelle Obama does the best as an alternative to Joe Biden, with Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders being tied behind her.

Without JB, KH and MO are tied as frontrunners, with Bernie Sanders behind them and a bit ahead of Pete Buttigieg.
 
Elixir said:
I think Wes Moore would mop up the field.
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His wikipedia page is impressive. This guy reads like a black Buttigieg. Then I hit the part about him not paying his bills. Eighteen months of sewer and water, delinquent property taxes before that, and he maintains a heated outdoor swimming pool in Baltimore; wasteful. No self-respecting liberal should have an outdoor swimming pool. These are character issues that may beat your average Republican but hardly meet my standards for the highest office in the land.
 
TV and credit cards said:
Elixir said:
I think Wes Moore would mop up the field.
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His wikipedia page is impressive. This guy reads like a black Buttigieg. Then I hit the part about him not paying his bills. Eighteen months of sewer and water, delinquent property taxes before that, and he maintains a heated outdoor swimming pool in Baltimore; wasteful. No self-respecting liberal should have an outdoor swimming pool. These are character issues that may beat your average Republican but hardly meet my standards for the highest office in the land.
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Agree that Wes Moore is impressive.
 
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While we wait to see how nothing or not-nothing burger the Biden doc situation is, have to wonder if that impacts his sticking around in 2024. Obviously, the worse it looks, the more likely to drop. Based on the in-house view of Biden's chances in 2024, I wonder if the Dems push a little harder on the doc issue.
Derec said:
blastula said:
So surprising that Biden wants the first state he won to be first.
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Yeah. It's pretty on the nose. It would also help his Veep Kamala in either 2024 or 2028.
But it'd be better than Iowa/NH.
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Why? Iowa/NH are better suited for retail politics. NH (1M) because it is small, and Iowa (3M) (being bigger than NH but still smaller than either mean (6.6M) or median (4.5M) state population) has the more participatory caucus which reduces the advantage better known and heeled candidates have in a primary system. It is no coincidence Obama and Bernie outdid uninspiring establishment candidate Hillary in the states that had cauci.
The currently proposed schedule Dem leadership does away with this tradition of retail politics, favoring establishment favorites. I do not think either Bill Clinton or Obama would have been nominated using this calendar. There would be even more uninspiring candidates like John Kerry and Hillary.

I think making SC first, and following it up with largeish states like GA and MI is a horrible idea on multiple levels.
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Other than Biden beating Trump? That was South Carolina that did that!
 
TV and credit cards said:
Elixir said:
I think Wes Moore would mop up the field.
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His wikipedia page is impressive. This guy reads like a black Buttigieg. Then I hit the part about him not paying his bills. Eighteen months of sewer and water, delinquent property taxes before that, and he maintains a heated outdoor swimming pool in Baltimore; wasteful. No self-respecting liberal should have an outdoor swimming pool. These are character issues that may beat your average Republican but hardly meet my standards for the highest office in the land.
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We won't get an average republican. We'll get an extremist Right Wing nut case. The front runners are Trump, DeSantis, and maybe Abbott. Choices so bracing no liberal or moderate can avoid fighting for any Dem who wins the nomination and runs.
 
2024 is going to be interesting. Early polling is all over the place, but Trump seems to be in trouble. Ins8ders are claiming Faux Noise is getting ready to move on from Trump. DeSatan and Trump promise to a vicious, low down race to the bottom of the civility barrel. Meanwhile, hordes of Republicans are attacking DeSatan. Apparently he is going to be painted as too radical to win a general election. The upcoming scorched earth games from the GOP controlled House will put any 2024 GOP candidate behind an eightball. Do GOP candidates fight the crazy, or start leading the crazies to 2024 defeat? If it gets bad enough, Sponge Bob Squarepants could beat the GOP primary winner. Biden, Harris or anybody not Republican.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
The upcoming scorched earth games from the GOP controlled House will put any 2024 GOP candidate behind an eightball.
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That's putting it mildly. No question that the House clowns will be an undying embarrassment that will almost certainly prevent any kind of Republican gains in 2024, given via free and fair elections. But let's not forget -
The wackadoodles controlling the House have no interest in appearing rational in order to garner favor from rational people. Their plans don't include getting votes anyhow - it's about doing away with democratic processes altogether. Their plan is:
* Trump runs,
* Trump wins (hahaha) OR - (more likely by far)
* Trump gets blown out, but the military does the "right thing" and prevents Trump's opponent from taking power, so
* Trump assumes the throne, and
* MTG, Matty Gaetz, Bobblehead, Jordan, Santos and the rest of the ratpack all become fat oligarchs in the New Order, and
* Live happily ever after.
 
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