Do you think that American relations with European countries can be restored post-Trump?

[Politesse]

Europeans will celebrate when Trump is gone, just like we will.

I certainly hope so. But Europe has a long history and Europeans have long memories. They will remain mindful of the fact that in any given election cycle, Americans are capable of electing another Hitler wannabe.
It will take centuries for them to stop worrying about the next fraudulent warmongering fascist idiot rapist the ‘Murkins might elect.
Americans’ epic stupidity will be fixed in legend after the current debacle.

I think there is an aspect of Viktor Orban's beating that is lost on many. He was the first populist to be elected in the 21st century and he went out in spectacular fashion. People were fed up. They came out and they voted. Harbinger.

And how is that populist movement Brexit doing? From what I read, not so popular these days.

Finally, how is Trump doing with those who voted him into office? Inflation, military adventurism, iron-fisted immigration. Is this what they voted for? Not from the polling I've seen.

Funny thing about populist and their movements is the disheartening reality of getting what you wish for.

Reality is a motherfucker.

Now it may sound as if I'm going off track but add to this AI. Already I'm reading stories of graduates with degree in hand who cannot get entry level jobs in their field because of AI or LLMs (I've yet to fully differentiate between the two but I feel I'm close). I also read the trades are experiencing a surge in applicants. How much worse is it going to be for college graduates by November 2028? These are not people who are likely to cling to some populist movement. I would suggest these unemployed/underemployed college graduates are more likely to swing toward a socialist who might promise robust government support programs. The very opposite of this MAGA rugged individualism bullshit.

It could be we are seeing peak populism and might see a generation of a push to the left.

Not sure Europe as a whole will be quick to forgive the UK or Hungary, either.

 

[Elixir]

How much worse is it going to be for college graduates by November 2028?

I think about that a lot. How much “worse” is probably the wrong question. Maybe the thing that needs examination is “what options remain” for a person with x,y or z educational background.
As a high school dropout I’m skeptical of the idea that formal education and professional options are inextricably linked.
Not to sound too trite, but I think (most) people need to “find themselves” before they decide to pursue a career, and that has become more important than ever.
I’ve heard about highly educated people being left out in the cold lately … It always sounds to me like they went into a selected educational path because they expected it to be lucrative rather than because of love of a profession.
Things change too fast to make those bets any more. You might get rich quicker by being the starving artist until you succeed, instead of becoming an expert programmer whose phenomenal expertise is 99% replaceable by the latest AI.
So if you like playing in paint or mud, DO IT. The worst that’s going to happen is you starve. And that is just as likely if you pursue a no-longer-high-demand job.

Of course none of that applies if you’re a born oligarch

 

[Patooka]

And how is that populist movement Brexit doing? From what I read, not so popular these days.

It's been rebranded as the Reform Party, and unfortunately they're doing better than they have any right to be.

 

[crazyfingers]

And how is that populist movement Brexit doing? From what I read, not so popular these days.

It's been rebranded as the Reform Party, and unfortunately they're doing better than they have any right to be.

So are you saying that British voters might be only slightly smarter that the US voters?

 

[Patooka]

And how is that populist movement Brexit doing? From what I read, not so popular these days.

It's been rebranded as the Reform Party, and unfortunately they're doing better than they have any right to be.

So are you saying that British voters might be only slightly smarter that the US voters?

Absolutley not. Pretty much like every other western democracy you can see a distinct correlation between a rise of far right candidates and an increase in apathy and lack of engagement amongst voters. It's not an original story.

 

[Tammuz]

All of us equal and unique, with all of our concerns and needs being addressed on equal footing. I’m fine if the US provides more militarily for a while although in my ideal world, the need for a military would be greatly reduced or non-existent because we’d be better at settling differences and incentivizing bullies to behave. More carrots fewer sticks.

We all do better when we all do better.

This works among liberal democratic countries. It does not work with belligerent countries like Russia that think they have the right to dominate other countries (and are willing to use military force to achieve that aim) that in turn don't want to be dominated by them.

 

[Toni]

All of us equal and unique, with all of our concerns and needs being addressed on equal footing. I’m fine if the US provides more militarily for a while although in my ideal world, the need for a military would be greatly reduced or non-existent because we’d be better at settling differences and incentivizing bullies to behave. More carrots fewer sticks.

We all do better when we all do better.

This works among liberal democratic countries. It does not work with belligerent countries like Russia that think they have the right to dominate other countries (and are willing to use military force to achieve that aim) that in turn don't want to be dominated by them.

Yep. Which is why the non-belligerent countries need to stand together against aggression towards anyone.

I definitely include the US currently as among the belligerent countries.

 

[Tammuz]

Europeans will celebrate when Trump is gone, just like we will.

I certainly hope so. But Europe has a long history and Europeans have long memories. They will remain mindful of the fact that in any given election cycle, Americans are capable of electing another Hitler wannabe.
It will take centuries for them to stop worrying about the next fraudulent warmongering fascist idiot rapist the ‘Murkins might elect.
Americans’ epic stupidity will be fixed in legend after the current debacle.

I think there is an aspect of Viktor Orban's beating that is lost on many. He was the first populist to be elected in the 21st century and he went out in spectacular fashion. People were fed up. They came out and they voted. Harbinger.

And how is that populist movement Brexit doing? From what I read, not so popular these days.

Finally, how is Trump doing with those who voted him into office? Inflation, military adventurism, iron-fisted immigration. Is this what they voted for? Not from the polling I've seen.

Funny thing about populist and their movements is the disheartening reality of getting what you wish for.

Reality is a motherfucker.

Now it may sound as if I'm going off track but add to this AI. Already I'm reading stories of graduates with degree in hand who cannot get entry level jobs in their field because of AI or LLMs (I've yet to fully differentiate between the two but I feel I'm close). I also read the trades are experiencing a surge in applicants. How much worse is it going to be for college graduates by November 2028? These are not people who are likely to cling to some populist movement. I would suggest these unemployed/underemployed college graduates are more likely to swing toward a socialist who might promise robust government support programs. The very opposite of this MAGA rugged individualism bullshit.

It could be we are seeing peak populism and might see a generation of a push to the left.

Not sure Europe as a whole will be quick to forgive the UK or Hungary, either.

The UK these days at least tries to have cordial relations with the EU and has been staunchly pro-Ukraine, both under Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer. Hungary is a different beast altogether.

As for Brexit, I think it hurts the Brits more than the remaining EU countries.

 

[laughing dog]

And how is that populist movement Brexit doing? From what I read, not so popular these days.

It's been rebranded as the Reform Party, and unfortunately they're doing better than they have any right to be.

So are you saying that British voters might be only slightly smarter that the US voters?

Certainly Brexit, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss are not suggestive of that. On the otherhand, we did re-elect Trump. So, I'm not so sure.

 

[Politesse]

Europeans will celebrate when Trump is gone, just like we will.

I certainly hope so. But Europe has a long history and Europeans have long memories. They will remain mindful of the fact that in any given election cycle, Americans are capable of electing another Hitler wannabe.
It will take centuries for them to stop worrying about the next fraudulent warmongering fascist idiot rapist the ‘Murkins might elect.
Americans’ epic stupidity will be fixed in legend after the current debacle.

I think there is an aspect of Viktor Orban's beating that is lost on many. He was the first populist to be elected in the 21st century and he went out in spectacular fashion. People were fed up. They came out and they voted. Harbinger.

And how is that populist movement Brexit doing? From what I read, not so popular these days.

Finally, how is Trump doing with those who voted him into office? Inflation, military adventurism, iron-fisted immigration. Is this what they voted for? Not from the polling I've seen.

Funny thing about populist and their movements is the disheartening reality of getting what you wish for.

Reality is a motherfucker.

Now it may sound as if I'm going off track but add to this AI. Already I'm reading stories of graduates with degree in hand who cannot get entry level jobs in their field because of AI or LLMs (I've yet to fully differentiate between the two but I feel I'm close). I also read the trades are experiencing a surge in applicants. How much worse is it going to be for college graduates by November 2028? These are not people who are likely to cling to some populist movement. I would suggest these unemployed/underemployed college graduates are more likely to swing toward a socialist who might promise robust government support programs. The very opposite of this MAGA rugged individualism bullshit.

It could be we are seeing peak populism and might see a generation of a push to the left.

Not sure Europe as a whole will be quick to forgive the UK or Hungary, either.

The UK these days at least tries to have cordial relations with the EU and has been staunchly pro-Ukraine, both under Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer. Hungary is a different beast altogether.

As for Brexit, I think it hurts the Brits more than the remaining EU countries.

The question was whether our situation in global politics could be restored to what it was before our hard turn to the isolationist far Right. It cannot, for some of the same reasons the UK will never again have the kind of influence in western and central Europe that they enjoyed before they repudiated Union. One risk of storming out and slammimg the door is always the possibility that those still inside the room will realize how little they needed your cooperation to begin with.

 

[Terrell]

Partially perhaps. Plenty of this depends on who we elect in the next few Presidential elections. If we avoid Trump like candidates w/r/t foreign affairs, we'll probably be better in a few terms.

 

[barbos]

Last time I checked Biden was a president when NS was bombed.
And during "Fuck the EU" Obama was the president.
So not all of the credit goes to the Orange.

 

[Toni]

Nations don't have friends, they have interests.

It was in the interest of the NATO nations to rely on the US for defense, and it was in the interest of the US to provide that defense.

Trump has not only abjectly failed to recognise the second part of that, he has also made denial of it into a mainstream political opinion in the US electorate.

The US paid for the armed forces to protect the rest of NATO, and all she got in return was the geopolitical clout to dominate the entire world and to shape international commerce to the massive benefit of America.

Isolationism made the USA a footnote in world affairs, before her involvement in two world wars made her into a hegemonic superpower, and her involvement in the Cold War, with the willing cooperation of NATO, then made her the world's ONLY superpower.

And with typical simpletonism, Trump and his MAGA morons have looked at one side of that ledger, and utterly failed to see the other. NATO cost the US Trillions - but she got in return the entire world. It was the bargain of the (twentieth) century.

There's no way to rebuild that. It was a one-time offer, from a world broken by two world wars, and terrified of Soviet invasion of Europe.

Europe is now far more politically and economically united than it was during the Cold War. The USA were able to use their dominance to make the rest of NATO buy American weapons systems, that no individual European state could have afforded to develop for themselves. But the EU can afford this stuff, as a united economic bloc. And that ability to pay was a potential threat to the US.

Trump has turned that potential threat to US dominance, into an actual EU opportunity to take a slice of the cake back. Something that US Presidents since Eisenhower have worked hard to avoid, because it will cost America her world domination.

It's not coming back.

Like Brexit, the Trump Doctrine of an American exit from NATO is irreversable. The egg can't be unscrambled. There's no going back, no matter how awful the consequences. NATO was, above all, built on the rock-solid certainty that Article 5 meant unflinching US protection - up to and including the nuclear annihilation of the aggressor - for any member who was attacked. The slightest hint that the US might not hold up her end of that, is inevitably and irreversably fatal to the alliance - or at least to the US role as its dominant member.

Europe now has to defend herself. So, why would she allow a foreign power, such as the US, to maintain bases in her territory?

The US went it alone (well, with only Israel as an ally) in her attack on Iran - but it would have been a very different, and much more expensive, war had the US been denied the use of airfields in the UK, Germany, and Diego Garcia (the latter being a UK colonial posession). And it's not just European bases the US depends upon for power projection. US bases in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE exist because those nations were prepared to help the US to project world-dominating power, in exchange for US protection against any attacker.

America can bomb Iran, because the USAF can re-stock and refuel at bases around the world. Without those bases, her ability is sharply curtailed. Bombing Tehran is still possible directly from the Continental USA, but only with long and complex mid-air refuelling routes. If denied overflight rights by intervening nations, these become longer still (bombers from UK bases often had to fly around France and Spain during the recent campaign). And if any intervening nation was not only uncooperative, but actively opposed to such US action, the whole exercise becomes extremely hazardous.

She can use aircraft carriers to mitigate this to some extent, but you can't operate big bombers from aircraft carriers. And without friendly overseas resupply ports, deployments become long and painful when trying to project power tens of thousands of miles.

The US traded reliability for hegemony. Now that she has shredded her reliability, why would the world allow her to keep her hegemonic position?

There was always a "Yankees Go Home!" undercurrent in every nation where Americans have overseas military bases. Now the people who were opposing that anti-US sentiment, by pointing to the value Uncle Sam brought as a gaurantor of overwhelming military force against any invader, are no longer able to support US military presence with a straight face.

It will take a while for the longstanding defensive situation to be un-picked and rebuilt without US involvement; And that time will be a dangerous one. But it's endpoint (if WWIII doesn't intervene) will be a far stronger Europe, and a weakened and impoverished USA.

I suspect that the long term winners here will be Ukraine. They have the military technology and skills that will be needed for the next war, while the USA has only the technology and skills that were needed for the Cold War. The switch to exchanging EU cash for Ukrainian skills and technologies, rather than exchanging European military bases for American skills and technologies, will be a difficult transition, but massively beneficial to both EU and Ukraine.

The USA will be left with a huge debt, that once paid for a massive military (rendered obsolete by the loss of her overseas bases), which had allowed her to dominate the globe both economically and politically, but which now achieves nothing.

The key thing is it WAS in the best interests of the US and our allies for the US to carry the greater military expense/risk/power.

The disdain with which you hold the ‘US isolationism’ is indicative of one of the downsides. We have been your useful big brother who will carry a big stick to warn off the bullies. But we are also seen as merely the big stick.

I don’t think Australia has any high ground over the US re: isolationism. We are both nations separated from Europe and Asia by large distances: we are, in fact, isolated. Yes, you have New Zealand and we have Canada and Mexico. The closest we have to a hostile neighbor is Cuba.You have closer ties to Great Britain, legally and culturally than we do, and you are more aligned with British interests. We are deliberately a nation of immigrants with the advantages and difficulties that brings. Australia is hardly enlightened with respect to immigration, particularly from some of the more dark skinned and less Church of England affiliated countries.

I certainly do hope that Ukraine comes out something like a winner in the current conflict. Mostly I hope that Russia loses very badly. That will be the greatest benefit, although then we must deal with China and India. I think that you are underestimating the US’s capacity for more than Cold War technology re: war. Increased isolation from the rest of the world is hurting us and will continue to hurt us—and the rest of the world.

Yes, the US will be bearing an enormous burden of debt further this foolish conflict in the Middle East, and indeed, all of Trump’s policies and morass. Unfortunately, so will the rest of the world. So have we now, and so have you all now.