Election Day Is Here!

[Jimmy Higgins]

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Who the fuck are voting Green?!

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Agreed, but with a vote this close, it doesn't hurt to wait until all the votes are verified. Afterall, maybe the Republicans registered voters from a cemetary or employed voters to vote twice. All of this should be checked out.

Ya, but it's checked out ... by Kemp. I'm fairly certain he's not going to find out anything which will affect the results.

How does Kemp know how many fraudulent votes were cast?

Actually, it'd be the voters who were fraudulently not allowed to vote.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So, effectively, Dems did OK. Not anywhere near a blue wave. They did poorly in the senate (losing several seats). Florida and Georgia decided to stick with Republicians. Looks like Kemp's strategy of fear and voter suppression worked as planned. They got about what was expected in the house. They'll have about a 20 seat majority.

It was a wave, just not a tsunami that the Republicans had in 2010 when the Dems dared to pass Health Care reform.

If I really wanted to spin this, this is a devastating loss for the Republicans as they lost control of House while the economy is doing decently. But the truth is, this was a 1-1 draw away leg for the Democrats. They have a good deal to be happy with (House, Governorship gains, a few more trifecta states, took away trifectas from Republicans in states, and primarily only lost in Red states), but they still took some bumps.

 

[Ford]

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There's a slim chance this could change. According to news reports this morning, there's at least 300,000 ballots yet to be counted, and most of them are from Maricopa County, which encompasses the Phoenix metro. If those ballots break for Sinema, she might eek out a win.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Also, good job by the Greens!

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

View attachment 18660

There's a slim chance this could change. According to news reports this morning, there's at least 300,000 ballots yet to be counted, and most of them are from Maricopa County, which encompasses the Phoenix metro. If those ballots break for Sinema, she might eek out a win.

I read about that and it made no sense (CNN says 99% reporting). Exit polling indicates a too close to call.

The extremely tight race between Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Krysten Sinema is too close to call.

The two were separated early Wednesday by a small fraction of the votes tabulated, with hundreds of thousands of uncounted ballots still outstanding.

Most Arizona voters cast their ballots early by mail. Those who receive early ballots but then drop them off in person at polling stations on or close to Election Day can jam up the system.

That's because the state's most populous county, Maricopa, can take days to count those ballots while they simultaneously tabulate Election Day votes.

The so-called "late earlies" may not be counted until Thursday by the county.

link


That sounds so Florida. But yeah, if this is mainly Maricopa County, this election isn't over.

 

[skepticalbip]

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There's a slim chance this could change. According to news reports this morning, there's at least 300,000 ballots yet to be counted, and most of them are from Maricopa County, which encompasses the Phoenix metro. If those ballots break for Sinema, she might eek out a win.

That is rather confusing. Is it the case that the Associated Press report is wrong or the report that there are 300,000 is wrong? The AP indicates the 99% reporting with a total of 1,684,178 votes counted. If there are 300,000 votes not yet counted then there is less than 90% of votes counted. If there are 99% counted then there is less than 20,000 votes not yet counted.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

View attachment 18660

There's a slim chance this could change. According to news reports this morning, there's at least 300,000 ballots yet to be counted, and most of them are from Maricopa County, which encompasses the Phoenix metro. If those ballots break for Sinema, she might eek out a win.

That is rather confusing. Is it the case that the Associated Press report is wrong or the report that there are 300,000 is wrong? The AP indicates the 99% reporting with a total of 1,684,178 votes. If there are 300,000 votes not yet counted then there is less than 90% of votes counted. If there are 99% counted then there is less than 20,000 votes not yet counted.

Maricopa in 2014 had about 800,000 votes for Governor. They have surpassed that this year. It seems hard to believe that there are 300,000 more votes! Now the odd thing is Maricopa reports at 99%, but the state is 75%. So based on the numbers provided, it'd seem the state is done counting. Also, note, AP is who reported about the 300,000 extra votes. I've got to think that is a typo and should be 30,000, which is not irrelevant and can still turn the tide.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

That is rather confusing. Is it the case that the Associated Press report is wrong or the report that there are 300,000 is wrong? The AP indicates the 99% reporting with a total of 1,684,178 votes counted. If there are 300,000 votes not yet counted then there is less than 90% of votes counted. If there are 99% counted then there is less than 20,000 votes not yet counted.

Votes from illegal immigrants and dead people only count in the final totals, not in the percentages of districts reporting, which causes a skew when comparing the numbers. The reasons behind this have to do with the technical details of what's needed to get fraudulent votes entered into the system.

 

[skepticalbip]

That is rather confusing. Is it the case that the Associated Press report is wrong or the report that there are 300,000 is wrong? The AP indicates the 99% reporting with a total of 1,684,178 votes counted. If there are 300,000 votes not yet counted then there is less than 90% of votes counted. If there are 99% counted then there is less than 20,000 votes not yet counted.

Votes from illegal immigrants and dead people only count in the final totals, not in the percentages of districts reporting, which causes a skew when comparing the numbers. The reasons behind this have to do with the technical details of what's needed to get fraudulent votes entered into the system.

Now that I can understand. It would have made sense if they had said from the start that there are unknown % of votes counted and the number of uncounted votes remaining is whatever we need to swing the election to what we want the results to be. Their giving hard numbers is just confusing.

 

[Gun Nut]

Also, good job by the Greens!

yup.. they won it for the Reps as usual.

 

[blastula]

There are a lot of early votes yet to be counted for AZ senate.

Official: McSally-Sinema Senate winner might not be decided for days

“We’re expecting approximately 500,000 to 600,000 (early ballots to be counted), most of them being in Maricopa County,” Garrett Archer, senior analyst with the Arizona Secretary of State’s office, told KTAR News 92.3 FM. It could take the rest of the week or longer.

 

[skepticalbip]

So what happens next? Can the House Republicans somehow use their remaining time to sabotage the dems, for example by reverting the rules about subpoena powers?

Any rules this house makes can be reversed by the next house. Sorta like Trump reversed several of Obama's executive orders.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There are a lot of early votes yet to be counted for AZ senate.

Official: McSally-Sinema Senate winner might not be decided for days

“We’re expecting approximately 500,000 to 600,000 (early ballots to be counted), most of them being in Maricopa County,” Garrett Archer, senior analyst with the Arizona Secretary of State’s office, told KTAR News 92.3 FM. It could take the rest of the week or longer.

According to the Maricopa website, they already counted around 600,000+ early ballots. In fact, only about 110,000 paper ballots were voted on the actual election day. They itemize the day of voting ballots with the early submitted ballots.

 

[blastula]

Sinema is ahead now in AZ.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0

 

[bilby]

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There's a slim chance this could change. According to news reports this morning, there's at least 300,000 ballots yet to be counted, and most of them are from Maricopa County, which encompasses the Phoenix metro. If those ballots break for Sinema, she might eek out a win.

That is rather confusing. Is it the case that the Associated Press report is wrong or the report that there are 300,000 is wrong? The AP indicates the 99% reporting with a total of 1,684,178 votes counted. If there are 300,000 votes not yet counted then there is less than 90% of votes counted. If there are 99% counted then there is less than 20,000 votes not yet counted.

My understanding is that the % reporting is % of precincts, not % of votes cast.

In a rural area, the number of votes cast at a precinct might be tiny, while in an urban area, there presumably could be a single precinct that gets 10% of all votes cast at it. And you would expect the smaller precincts to report sooner than the big ones.

Unless someone is counting the number of ballots issued, I don't see how they can know what % of votes have been counted.

ETA it seems I was right - at least in some locations, the "% of precincts reporting" can be WILDLY different from the % of votes counted:

The precincts reporting number only provides a very rough estimate of the progress of counting of total ballots for a couple of reasons. First, it only reports on ballots cast at polling places on Election Day. It does not take into account any Vote-by-Mail ballot totals. Second, it is simply a snapshot of how many precincts have had their Election Day ballots run through the ballot scanners. It does not take into account the number of ballots in a precinct. Some precincts have hundreds of ballots and other precincts have no ballots at all! So, there is not always a direct correlation between the number of precincts reporting and the number of ballots counted.

...

The reason is that there are many precincts that have zero voters and in our software program precincts with zero voters aren’t reported until all other precincts have reported their results. So on Election Night it is possible that the percentage of precincts reporting can suddenly rise to 100 percent without a drastic change in the number in the vote count.

To give some perspective to this issue, there are 1,609 precincts in San Bernardino County. Of those, many precincts are located in remote areas of the County and have very few registered voters residing in them. In fact, 438 precincts have no registered voters in them at all.

(source)(my bold)

It seems that these numbers are pretty much useless.