Election Predictions and LiveBlog

[Rhea]

Here it is, first Tuesday in November.

What do you think will happen - and what will come of it?

I really didn't think the bankrupt Republican ideas could take the senate, but the prognosticators tell me it will. Which makes me sad.

So will it really? And what will happen when it does? Work stoppage, for one thing. A workout for the veto pen. Nothing gets done at all. For two years. Aack.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

Total bloodbath. If you are in America, you should stay in you bunker and await instructions.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Total bloodbath. If you are in America, you should stay in you bunker and await instructions.

Especially if you're a Republican in a state with a close election race. Then you should definitely go into your bunker and stay there all day.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Here it is, first Tuesday in November.

What do you think will happen - and what will come of it?

I really didn't think the bankrupt Republican ideas could take the senate, but the prognosticators tell me it will. Which makes me sad.

Isn't that something? The Republican strategy of Party First, Country Second worked. I thought the power of incumbancy was going to win out, but it looks dark for the Democrats, who will be a minority, and if they get lucky, will be stripped of the filibuster power because the Republicans feel that it is "time to get to work and stop all this partisan bickering".

I was depressed voting today.

 

[ksen]

It's just another election day in America where all we really do is shift around the seats without touching the direction the country is headed.

Mazel tov!

 

[ksen]

I voted!

All the poll workers at my polling place were active duty military guys from our local air force base. Nothing says "Freedom!" like having the military run your local polling station.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Looks like the Republicans will win 50 or 51 seats today and will battle it out for Louisiana and Georgia in runoffs.

Biggest losers are King (ME) and Manchin (WV) who's bargaining powers with the Dark Side have diminished greatly. Though Manchin would be well off to switch now as a Democrat won't win reelection in WV. WV hates Obama for killing coal... which ironically they probably called their senators to kill off by supporting fracking, the bigger killer of coal.

The first six years weren't exactly fruitful, but they'll likely be amazingly productive compared to the upcoming two years, aka the Republican's Mission "Operation 2016... The White House or Send the Nation Straight to Hell".

Should have tried the W Admin and put them in prison. The whole, lay back, wait to gain power and do good plan of Dean failed because the Republicans don't fucking care about the nation.

 

[maxparrish]

Here it is, first Tuesday in November.

What do you think will happen - and what will come of it?

I really didn't think the bankrupt Republican ideas could take the senate, but the prognosticators tell me it will. Which makes me sad.

So will it really? And what will happen when it does? Work stoppage, for one thing. A workout for the veto pen. Nothing gets done at all. For two years. Aack.

Please, don't promise that the Congress and President might do nothing at all, could we be so blessed? "Work stoppage" of the political class would be the most productive two years in the last decade - the damage they wrought is endless.

PS - Nothing will change EXCEPT Obama's court packing, and use of the AG office as a form of lawfare. And...perhaps...with the cooperation of the Senate the appointment of long over due special prosecutors to uncover the corruption of the IRS (etc.). Oh, and the Republic might actually get a budget out of the Senate.

And the knives will come out and Reid will become "Ceasarized", as desired by his own ranks.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And to think... the idea of investigating the loss of tens of billions in Iraq was viewed by some as treason. Ten thousand American soldiers dead of maimed. 100+k dead Iraqis. $750 billion dollars spent. The Katrina response. Anthrax deaths. Severe illnesses for 9/11 first responders not getting health care support from Republicans. 3,000 die on 9/11. Americans were being paid by Hussein to protest an Iraqi War.

Now, if some office at the IRS delayed the tax exempt status of a number of new "educational" Tea Party groups, that is Watergate level scandal. Or you don't hear the end of Solyndra and the $100 million lost. Two Americans get Ebola and it is the worst pandemic in history. Tragedy of Benghazi that led to 4 deaths worse attack in American history. American protests against President Obama start being planned less than a month into his Presidency.

The nation has gone Moore-Coulter on us.

 

[ksen]

Personally I can't wait to finally get to the bottom of Benghazi.

 

[braces_for_impact]

Basic agenda if Repubs win big: Lots of "hearings" on Obama's "abuse of power". A big fat, wet, circle jerk sure to leave us all less than intrigued.

Rick Wiles says that Obama is just waiting for the election to be over so he can bring Ebola victims from Africa to here to be treated at...VA Hospitals! Then they'll set up an emergency Ebola hotline, where citizens are supposed to call if say, your neighbor shows signs of a fever or something. Then a SWAT team shows up, arrests you, and you get shuffled off to an Ebola re-education center, and when you come out, you're a "zombie". No, I did not make this shit up.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Not involved in this Election cycle? The outing of the NSA surveillance program and the gross unconstitutionality of it.

 

[Derec]

Mark Pryor losing. Mark Warner on the ropes as is Charlie Crist.
Tom Wolf defeating Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania and Shaheen and Hagan holding steady in NH and NC respectively.

 

[maxparrish]

Mark Pryor losing. Mark Warner on the ropes as is Charlie Crist.

Mark Warner will squeak through. Pryor is toast. You are correct, Scott looks like a winner.

Georgia looks good for GOP.
NH and NC looks good for Democrats.

So far, Higgins and Parrish predictions right on track.

 

[Ford]

Here it is, first Tuesday in November.

What do you think will happen - and what will come of it?

I really didn't think the bankrupt Republican ideas could take the senate, but the prognosticators tell me it will. Which makes me sad.

So will it really? And what will happen when it does? Work stoppage, for one thing. A workout for the veto pen. Nothing gets done at all. For two years. Aack.

Well it looks to be that the GOP will probably turn the Senate into a smaller, more deliberative version of the House, or as I like to call it, the Permanent Committee on Defeating Obama.

If you thought 50 votes in the House to repeal Obamacare weren't enough, then you'll enjoy the Senate's race to have even more. If you thought Benghazi hadn't been investigated enough, prepare for Benghazi Gate II, Electric Boogaloo.

I'd say it is about a 50/50 proposition that sometime in the next two years there will be an impeachment vote in the House.


If you are a judge or some other person awaiting Senate approval for your post, don't buy a house in DC. Don't even rent, because you're not going to get the gig. Obama could nominate Ted Nugent to be Secretary of the Interior and it would get shot down.



As far as the soon to be Democratic minority in the Senate? I'm pretty sure they've been taking notes over the past few years, and their strategy can be summed up with a paraphrased quote from "Patton":



McConnell... you magnificent bastard, I read your book!

 

[boneyard bill]

Personally I can't wait to finally get to the bottom of Benghazi.

Do you seriously think that we're going to get to the bottom of Benghazi. Republicans will milk it for what it's worth, but they don't dare to really investigate what was going on. It smells of another nefarious affair that goes well beyond some foul up or neglect. When the government admits incompetence, it's just their way of covering up a crime.

Or do you seriously believe that Fast 'n Furious was really about a gun-running sting that went wrong? If you do, come down here to Florida and I'll sell some really great swampland.

 

[maxparrish]

Mark Pryor losing. Mark Warner on the ropes as is Charlie Crist.

Mark Warner will squeak through. Pryor is toast. You are correct, Scott looks like a winner.

Georgia looks good for GOP.
NH and NC looks good for Democrats.

So far, Higgins and Parrish predictions right on track.

As expected, Colorado was just called for Cory Gardnier (R). This is a particularly 'sweet' win for the GOP because Colorado is a purple state, and Udall is intensely disliked by the State's rightwingers - the GOP get out the early vote effort massively helped the GOP (a 100,000 vote lead in early voting).

Anyway, at this point, there is the GOP has gained five seats.

Montana - GOP
South Dakota - GOP
Colorado - GOP
Arkansas - GOP
West Virginia - GOP

Alaska (likely GOP)
Georgia - Looks Likely to Go GOP, without runoff

Louisiana - Looks to go to Runoff, with GOP projected winner

Iowa - Too early but Dem leads substantially with 20 percent of vote in
NC - all the numbers geeks say Hagan will still win, but with 75 percent of the vote in it is still very tight...moments ago Tillis took a 2 percent lead.

NH - Stays Dem.
Virginia - So far an unexpectedly tight race. But still VERY likely to stay Dem because Fairfax county intentionally holds back reporting votes till it "sees" state trends.

Kansas - Tossup - tight race but at this point Roberts is slightly ahead.

Current Prognostication

Current route to Democrats retaining control - Win Kansas, Force Georgia to Runoff, keep Iowa and NC.

Should Roberts win Kansas or Enzi Iowa or NC to GOP, game over.

Governor Races - Democrats biggest target was Walker, who just trounced Mary Burke in a deep blue state. Looks like they will have to double their lawfare efforts.

Florida - Charlie Crist, the most loathed by the GOP in this year's races, is likely to loss.

 

[boneyard bill]

Mark Pryor losing. Mark Warner on the ropes as is Charlie Crist.

Mark Warner will squeak through. Pryor is toast. You are correct, Scott looks like a winner.

Georgia looks good for GOP.
NH and NC looks good for Democrats.

So far, Higgins and Parrish predictions right on track.

Politico is projecting Gardner the winner in Colorado. That goes along with Danes in Montana, Rounds in South Dakota, Caputo in W. Va., Cotton in Arkansas and McConnell in Ky. On Democrat side its Peters in Michigan and Shaheen in New Hampshire. All of this is exactly as I predicted in early October. However, Gillespie is still clinging to small lead in Virginia with only 4% of the vote outstanding. No way I picked that one. But it could turn around even now. Tillis is leading Hagan in NC where I predicted Hagan but there's still plenty of voting to go. Braley leads Ernst in Iowa but few votes have been cast. Roberts leads Orman in Kansas but again, it's early.

 

[Ford]

Do you seriously think that we're going to get to the bottom of Benghazi.

I think we got to the bottom of it 2 years ago. Libya descended into chaos and among the thousands of people killed in that conflict were 4 Americans.

The idea that it is somehow a "scandal" that must be investigated over and over again is pure, unadulterated political bullshit. What we really need to get to the bottom of is why the Republicans in Congress have spent the bulk of the last 2 years trying to figure out how they can blame Obama for four deaths in Libya instead of trying to figure out why we planted literally one thousand times as many Americans in Iraq.

 

[bilby]

I voted!

All the poll workers at my polling place were active duty military guys from our local air force base. Nothing says "Freedom!" like having the military run your local polling station.

If you saw that on TV coverage of elections in Russia, your first thought would be "That's not really democracy at all, is it?".

When I see it on TV coverage of elections in the USA, that's what I think too.