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Election predictions

blastula said:
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Well, Florida just fell. That a's 58 EV swing right there.

Whatever happens, Trump will have done better than most pundits predicted.
And whatever happens, Hillary will go down as (almost) losing to the oompa-loompa with a tribble on his head. I mean, if you can't beat Trump handily then you really are a poor candidate. Had she won the primaries in 2008, we'd have had McCain until 2016. Think about that.
 
Derec said:
blastula said:
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Well, Florida just fell. That a's 58 EV swing right there.

Whatever happens, Trump will have done better than most pundits predicted.
And whatever happens, Hillary will go down as (almost) losing to the oompa-loompa with a tribble on his head. I mean, if you can't beat Trump handily then you really are a poor candidate. Had she won the primaries in 2008, we'd have had McCain until 2016. Think about that.
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Florida fell?
 
Michigan and Wisconsin look very bad for HRC at this time. Those states are must have for her, without them it's over.
 
Terrell said:
Michigan and Wisconsin look very bad for HRC at this time. Those states are must have for her, without them it's over.
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Wisconsin is lost. Michigan has the rest of Detroit and Washtenaw. PA just tightened up like a spincter.
 
The guy I follow, Sam Wang, said:

...the key point here is that the entire polling industry – public, campaign-associated, aggregators – ended up with data that missed tonight’s results by a very large margin. There is now the question of understanding how a mature industry could have gone so wrong. And of course, most of all, there is the shock of a likely Trump presidency.
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Gee, thanks a lot poll aggregators.
 
And this is simply too big to put on voter suppression. Either there was massive, and I mean 5 million vote fraud, or we just fucking failed to realize the strength of the racist backlash. I can't believe this was fraud. It is just too big. We failed. This is a critical failure of leadership in the democratic party. We had no alternative to this flawed candidate. We had to import one from the independents in order to have a credible primary.

There's hope left, but it is a forlorn hope. She needs to win Michigan, Minnesota Pennsylvania and either Arizona or Wisconsin. She's behind everywhere but Minnesota.

Trump is wrong about everything, except the thing that counts: His support was stronger than anyone thought. He's been right about that all along.
 
Hillary might yet finish 3rd in Utah. What a cherry to put on top of the shit sundae that is her election night.

That said, this shows parties should not select nominees based on whose turn it is, whom they are married to, or how much centenarian women who were born before the 19th amendment want to see a female president before they die. None of these are good selection criteria.
 
Derec said:
Hillary might yet finish 3rd in Utah. What a cherry to put on top of the shit sundae that is her election night.

That said, this shows parties should not select nominees based on whose turn it is, whom they are married to, or how much centenarian women who were born before the 19th amendment want to see a female president before they die. None of these are good selection criteria.
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What a clusterfuck the Dems have created.
 
TSwizzle said:
Derec said:
Hillary might yet finish 3rd in Utah. What a cherry to put on top of the shit sundae that is her election night.

That said, this shows parties should not select nominees based on whose turn it is, whom they are married to, or how much centenarian women who were born before the 19th amendment want to see a female president before they die. None of these are good selection criteria.
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What a clusterfuck the Dems have created.
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Yes, the Republicans nominate a tax evading, draft dodging, sexual harrassing, business man who shipped American jobs overseas and defrauded shareholders... and the Dems are blamed for putting a Senator/Sec. of State as the nominee.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
TSwizzle said:
What a clusterfuck the Dems have created.
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Yes, the Republicans nominate a tax evading, draft dodging, sexual harrassing, business man who shipped American jobs overseas and defrauded shareholders... and the Dems are blamed for putting a Senator/Sec. of State as the nominee.
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There's enough blame to go all around. The GOP and the Dems both missed out on the mood of the country.
 
Derec said:
Hillary might yet finish 3rd in Utah. What a cherry to put on top of the shit sundae that is her election night.

That said, this shows parties should not select nominees based on whose turn it is, whom they are married to, or how much centenarian women who were born before the 19th amendment want to see a female president before they die. None of these are good selection criteria.
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They didnt. That you suggest this show how sexist you are.
 
fromderinside said:
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I think She gets about 362 electoral votes.
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Just wanted to post this to show just how great I am at forecasting.

I wonder why the 538 people never called me? :joy:

I even believed the hand wringers that the DOW was going to drop 800 points this morning ....

Now it's too late to reinvest in BAC because its up 40 cents today. :sadyes:
 
fromderinside said:
fromderinside said:
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I think She gets about 362 electoral votes.
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Just wanted to post this to show just how great I am at forecasting.

I wonder why the 538 people never called me? :joy:

I even believed the hand wringers that the DOW was going to drop 800 points this morning ....

Now it's too late to reinvest in BAC because its up 40 cents today. :sadyes:
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Hey, you at least got Texas right even though the pollsters tried to make us think it could possibly be in play. Sorry your fathers in Montana let you down... that had to hurt.

And that predicted by the media massive DOW drop somehow in reality turned into a new record high.

It has gotten so that I don't really trust anything I hear on the network news outlets until I can check with Al Jezeera. Whoda ever thunk that Al Jezerra would be more reliable than U.S. news outlets?
 
Ah, I forgot that I made a prediction the day before the election while Clinton was a shoe in to win with well over 300 electoral votes.

skepticalbip said:
I predict that, no matter who wins, there will be massive screams, denial, and rants about a stolen election from those supporting the losing candidate.
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skepticalbip said:
Ah, I forgot that I made a prediction the day before the election while Clinton was a shoe in to win with well over 300 electoral votes.

skepticalbip said:
I predict that, no matter who wins, there will be massive screams, denial, and rants about a stolen election from those supporting the losing candidate.
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Yup. I'm certainly no Trump fan, but its kinda funny how in the last debate, Trump hedged a bit when asked whether he would accept the results of the election and was widely mocked for his wishy-washy answer by the media and HRC supporters. Yet here we are now, Trump has won and the HRC supporters have hit the streets complaining ("Not my President!") about the results and wanting a re-do.
 
Derec said:
Juma said:
They didnt. That you suggest this show how sexist you are.
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Just because I think Hillary was a poor candidate who was selected for poor reasons does not mean I am "sexist".
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Were white women sexist against themselves? Maybe this is a case of "Physician, heal thyself"

For months, the image of the Donald Trump’s supporter has been the face of an angry white man. But it was white women who pushed Trump to victory.

Rejecting the candidate who had aimed to be America’s first female president, 53% of white women voted for Trump, according to CNN exit polls.

White women without a college degree supported Trump over Hillary Clinton by nearly a two to one margin. White women with a college degree were more evenly divided, with 45% supporting Trump, compared with 51% supporting Clinton.

“There’s your shy Trump vote,” Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson tweeted on Tuesday night, noting that Trump had only lost white women with college degrees by a narrow margin.
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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/10/white-women-donald-trump-victory
 
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