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Election predictions

Jolly_Penguin said:
What happens if Hillary is found guilty and is sentenced to jail, but also wins the presidency. Can she pardon herself?
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Might depend on the offense. So far ll we have is "lock her up" sans any rationale for doing so.
 
Jolly_Penguin said:
What happens if Hillary is found guilty and is sentenced to jail, but also wins the presidency. Can she pardon herself?

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Elixir said:
At the South Pole? Penguins getting restless?
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http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/11/homewrecker-penguin-mate-fight-video/
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That's disturbing. Not the domestic squabble so much as the way that all the other penguins refuse to intercede to stop the violence. Bunch of soulless bastards...
 
Warpoet said:
fromderinside said:
Polls have been relatively close in Mississippi and they really don't like being told that women are objects.
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Where are you getting that from? Polls there on average have him leading her by double digits. And Montana? Texas has a better chance of going blue than either of those two.
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I'm getting Mississippi poll numbers from from places like this: http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/mississippi/

Montana is an independent state, becoming more wealthy because of shale and fracking, that hates big business and big government equally. It's my family's ancestral home of 200 years and I just wanted to include it in my chart.
 
fromderinside said:
Warpoet said:
Where are you getting that from? Polls there on average have him leading her by double digits. And Montana? Texas has a better chance of going blue than either of those two.
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I'm getting Mississippi poll numbers from from places like this: http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/mississippi/

Montana is an independent state, becoming more wealthy because of shale and fracking, that hates big business and big government equally. It's my family's ancestral home of 200 years and I just wanted to include it in my chart.
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Wow. If places like Mississippi are within a couple of percent, instead of blowouts like they were last time, that could actually spell huge trouble for the GOP holding the House. I don't know how the gerrymandering works down there, but I assume that the Dem votes tend to be concentrated and a much higher proportion like that could flip a few more seats unexpectedly.
 
fromderinside said:
Warpoet said:
Where are you getting that from? Polls there on average have him leading her by double digits. And Montana? Texas has a better chance of going blue than either of those two.
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I'm getting Mississippi poll numbers from from places like this: http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/mississippi/
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But that site shows Trump taking MS. It shows two polls, one with Trump winning by 46% to 43% and the other showing Trump winning by 52% to 39%.
Montana is an independent state, becoming more wealthy because of shale and fracking, that hates big business and big government equally. It's my family's ancestral home of 200 years and I just wanted to include it in my chart.
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;)
Ah, I see. More a hope than a prediction.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
skepticalbip said:
But that site shows Trump taking MS. It shows two polls, one with Trump winning by 46% to 43% and the other showing Trump winning by 52% to 39%.
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It also shows dates on those polls and therefore documents movement in the numbers over time.
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Those polls were for this election. The long term trend shows that MS may become a swing state for 2020 and possibly blue for 2024.
 
This was my map from October 26th. I had predicted a 4.5 to 5.0% victory and 341 to 191 to 6 EV haul. Tracking so far seem to indicate my map is dead on.

upload_2016-10-26_12-42-54-png.121463
 
Qm2VP.png

Popular vote margin: 6.5
Senate: 51 D 49 R
House: 206 D 229 R

I'm hoping I'm wrong and Clinton gets more than this. I think she has decent chances in NC and OH, but I'm guessing voter suppression will hurt her there.

P.S. Fuck James Comey with Weiner's laptop.
 
blastula said:
Popular vote margin: 6.5
Senate: 51 D 49 R
House: 206 D 229 R

I'm hoping I'm wrong and Clinton gets more than this. I think she has decent chances in NC and OH, but I'm guessing voter suppression will hurt her there.

P.S. Fuck James Comey with Weiner's laptop.
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Is the 6.5 million or 6.5%, because the 6.5% seems high for your EC layout.
 
%, could be high, but counting on doing extra better in her states.

Let me add a tiebreaker prediction: Trump concedes, but with a 45+ minute speech.
 
I predict I will break my rule about not drinking alone tonight.

ETA: Prediction turned out to be true. Ensconced at home, Beethoven's 9th playing, bottle of wine open, waiting for results.
 
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Been watching the Predictit.org site today, because it has been the best forecasting resource for me for almost a year.
Today (early) it was Clinton $.79, Trump $.22
Now it's Clinton $.84, Trump $.20

Oddly, "Will the next elected President be a woman?" is 81/19... wtf are they expecting?
 
Being elected and becoming President are two different things. That difference might be the odds they give her of being elected and not being inaugerated.

ETA: The BBC has a very nice results tracker. I may stick with that. What sites are you guys watching?
 
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