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Evolution Demonstrated In A Laboratory

I have heard it said by some laypersons, as well as (remarkably) even some scientists, that “Einstein proved Newton wrong.”

I basically take issue with the word “wrong” in that sentence and I would say that those who utter this sentence probably don’t have a good enough understanding of the physics involved to make such a comment so definitively.

I think some people believe that for a theory to be truly right it must account for every possible state of affairs, a complete, totalizing theory of everything. I doubt that’s possible. I don’t say that Bomb necessarily believes that, though.
 
I think some people believe that for a theory to be truly right it must account for every possible state of affairs, a complete, totalizing theory of everything. I doubt that’s possible.
That’s why the theory of evolution only explains observations. It does not predict outcomes other than change - which is inevitable, even to a set of inanimate objects, let alone populations of imperfect self replicators.
That’s why it is used to “engineer away” problems that defy solution by human calculation.
 
A mathematical model can be developed with Earth at the center of the unverse. The math may get complicated, but astrononmcal motions can accurately be predicted using the Earth cetnric model.

The old relativity example that may go back to AE.

You are standing on a flat bed train car traveling at constant velocity. There is a transparent wind screen around you. You drop a ball. To you the ball drops straignt down. To an oberver on the ground, relative to his reference point the ball traces a parabolic arc.

Which observation(or theory of motion) is correct?

All or measurements are relative to SI derived and primary units. Arbitrary reference points to quantify observation.

If a measure a voltage it is traceable to a NIST standard cell.

I do not think in general there is any theory that is true in any absolute sense.
 
I think some people believe that for a theory to be truly right it must account for every possible state of affairs, a complete, totalizing theory of everything. I doubt that’s possible.
That’s why the theory of evolution only explains observations. It does not predict outcomes other than change...
Sure it does. As Haldane famously pointed out, it predicts that if you go fossil hunting in Precambrian rock, the outcome will not be you finding a fossil rabbit.
 
No. You don’t. That’s not what “flat earth” is.

This is becoming too distracting a detail of this thread but before you decide what you’ve suggested here is a good line of argument, please go find out what the flat earth model is.
I'm talking about this:


What are you talking about?
I didn’t see anywhere on that page a description like “take a globe earth and set the curvature to zero”.
Oh, come on! Point out the place in Newton's Principia where he says "Take a Riemannian manifold and set the curvature to zero." The old theory falling out of the new theory as a first approximation to it is something that can only be discovered retrospectively.

The conception that the earth was flat wasn’t anything like what we now call a physics theory. As soon as anyone actually started thinking about the quantifiable, observable consequences of any earth geometry model, the flat earth was thrown out.
The conception that 4D spacetime was flat wasn't anything like what we now call a physics theory. Newton adopted it implicitly because non-Euclidian geometry was unknown in his time. As soon as anyone actually started thinking about the quantifiable, observable consequences of any spacetime geometry model, Newtonian space and time were thrown out. Newton assumed Euclidean geometry because no alternative occurred to him. Iron Age sailors assumed the sea followed the familiar land-based Iron Age surveyors' geometry that Euclid would later formalize for their first five hundred years of Iron Age sailing because no alternative occurred to them.

The process was not remotely like what Einstein did with Newton’s theory. If Einstein’s theory didn’t reduce to Newton’s in the non-relativistic regime he would have assumed GR was wrong.
If Eratosthenes' theory didn't reduce to internal angles of a triangle adding to two right angles and parallel lines not meeting in the surveyors' regime, he would have assumed the spherical earth was wrong.

By the time physics was invented there was no flat earth model.
Of course there was. What, you think Galileo invented physics? Why do you think we even call it physics? It's because Aristotle called it physics when he wrote eight books about it. And in Aristotle's day the flat earth model was still widely accepted by many educated Greeks -- the case for a round earth was still being made.


"Aristotelian physics is a correct and non-intuitive approximation of Newtonian physics in the suitable domain (motion in fluids), in the same technical sense in which Newton theory is an approximation of Einstein's theory. Aristotelian physics lasted long not because it became dogma, but because it is a very good empirically grounded theory. The observation suggests some general considerations on inter-theoretical relations."​
 
I just think we are arguing past each other. We probably aren’t far from agreeing in most things.

But I will still contend that calling Newtonian physics as being “grossly contrary to reality” is not a meaningful thing to say. At least I’m confused as to what you mean by this. Perhaps it’s primarily a pedantic argument.


BTW, from your link:

The Physics is a lecture in which he seeks to determine beings that arise on their own, τὰ φύσει ὄντα, with regard to their being. Aristotelian "physics" is different from what we mean today by this word, not only to the extent that it belongs to antiquity whereas the modern physical sciences belong to modernity, rather above all it is different by virtue of the fact that Aristotle's "physics" is philosophy, whereas modern physics is a positive science that presupposes a philosophy.

Remarkably, Aristotelian physics wasn’t taught in any physics class i took.
 
I’ll grant you Ptolemy as there were actual quantifiable predictions that were reasonably accurate once he added enough variables to get everything to work.
That is not a point in the Ptolemaic theory's favor. It could have assumed orbits were square and gotten actual quantifiable predictions that were reasonably accurate once it added enough variables.

And what’s this leads to, in my opinion, is that we shouldn’t get worked up too much about what “reality” is with respect to physical models to represent it. Trying to make qualifiable comparisons to physical theories (like “grossly contrary”) isn’t particularly useful to me. What matters is how much something can work and the better it works the better representation of reality it is. I will concede Bomb’s point about also having simplicity in theories.
Yes, finally!

"The better it works the better representation of reality it is" strikes me as a nihilistic abandonment of the whole point of science, which is not to engineer a prediction algorithm but to search for the truth and maximize our chances of finding the truth by humbly letting the universe teach us rather than arrogantly attempting to force-fit our favorite opinions onto the universe. Bohr's quip to Einstein's "God doesn't throw dice" opinion, "Stop telling God what to do.", captures the essence of the scientific project. "How much something can work" is important not for its own sake but because not working is the universe teaching us that our theory isn't true. Simplicity is important not for its own sake but because too many variables is a red-flag that we're forcing our opinion on the universe by overfitting; simplicity is a sign that we're on the right track because we didn't need to add a lot of variables, so the accuracy of our model would be an improbable coincidence if it weren't on the right track.

And we might consider that modern cosmology may be heading down the road of increasing epicycles with unobservable cosmological characteristics. We will see.
Well said.
 


"The better it works the better representation of reality it is" strikes me as a nihilistic abandonment of the whole point of science, which is not to engineer a prediction algorithm but to search for the truth and maximize our chances of finding the truth by humbly letting the universe teach us rather than arrogantly attempting to force-fit our favorite opinions onto the universe.
but as you have pointed out in all of your responses to me, there have been quite a number of times we have had to revise our “truth” in the face of new observables fit by new models.

You kind of make my point in some of these quotes of physicists proclaiming the truth of their theories. “God doesn’t play dice”, “parallel lines never meet”, “the universe is static thus there’s a cosmological constant”, “electrons orbit the nucleus like little planetary systems”.

To continue to claim that the latest theory is the “truth” because it fits our new data better than the last just seems like it will lead to these “false” proclamations.

You can consider me nihilistic if you want but I think that it just leads to me not worrying about the so-called “truth” of our physics models.

One day we may find a new theory that explains all of our observations better but doesn’t need curved space time and we will then say that GR was “grossly contrary to reality” and think how silly it was we ever considered that space time could curve or that the vast majority of matter was some unknown, invisible substance.

I have always said that the universe itself is the final arbiter and I think you’d agree with that. But the “truth of reality”, whatever that means, may be something that is ever beyond our grasp.
 
I have heard it said by some laypersons, as well as (remarkably) even some scientists, that “Einstein proved Newton wrong.”

I basically take issue with the word “wrong” in that sentence and I would say that those who utter this sentence probably don’t have a good enough understanding of the physics involved to make such a comment so definitively.

I think some people believe that for a theory to be truly right it must account for every possible state of affairs, a complete, totalizing theory of everything. I doubt that’s possible. I don’t say that Bomb necessarily believes that, though.
Not at all; but don't take that as endorsing you guys' apparent instrumentalist conflation of right with accurate and useful. I use plain common-usage English, not some weird philosopherese. To say a theory is wrong is to say it says something that's false. For a theory to be truly right, therefore, it merely needs to not say any false things, to say some true things, and to not say anything that's not-even-wrong. A theory-of-everything is utterly unnecessary for this -- a theory can achieve true rightness simply by the expedient of remaining silent about anything it doesn't know. True rightness is a relatively easy thing for a theory to achieve as long as it's modest about making claims. But that's a tricky thing to achieve in physics because describing the whole universe is the project of physics, so truly right theories are mostly found in other sciences. Elephants and mice share a common ancestor -- that's a truly right theory. New York used to be covered by glaciers -- that's a truly right theory. (And yes, I know some people insist a "theory" has to be a lot more general than that. Who cares? We're analyzing "right" and "wrong" here, not "theory".)

Still, there are truly right physics theories. Case in point: Copernicus's theory that Mars and Jupiter and Saturn reverse in the sky because the Earth is catching up with them. Never mind that when he fleshed it out in more detail with circular orbits and whatnot, he started saying false things and ended up with a more elaborate theory that was no longer truly right. The initial theory was still truly right.

Anyway, I hope that helps you guys understand me.
 
...
So a creator's first job is to separate the waters, to make a bubble of air, and to provide some dry land.

But all of this depends entirely upon the idea that the ocean is infinite in extent.

Which to anyone prior to the Early Middle Ages, was basically obvious. The Mediterranean Bronze and Iron Age seafarers were no slouches. They could sail out of sight of land, and navigate by the stars, and yet, even to them, the Atlantic went on indefinitely. It probably had an edge somewhere, so that the celestial bodies had somewhere to go when they dropped below the horizon. But that edge would, obviously and necessarily, be a waterfall of epic scale.

Nitpick. The notion that the Earth is a finite sphere is attributed to Pythagoras of Samos from the 6th-century BC, long before the Early Middle Ages. Sure, ignorant masses were unaware of or did not accept Pythagoras' teaching . . . but similar confusions apply to the ignorant masses of today.

(Pythagoras' signature does not appear on any document; my mentioning of him may bring ridicule upon myself. Thinking Pythagoras even existed may lump me with those gullible enough to believe Edward de Vere or Jesus of Nazareth existed. However Parmenides of Elea did explicitly write about the Earth's sphericity about a century before the time of Aristotle.)

I just started skimming this thread and am still not sure what it's about! But on the matter of the earliest religions and notions of God, early man had little concern about the Original Creation. Early man was more concerned with questions about whether a particular plant was edible, or why he shouldn't shag his sister.
 
Is Learner going to answer my question on abiogenesis?
What was the question again?

I suspect that Mr. Learner wants to learn whether abiogenesis is even plausible. I'm sure we all agree that Darwinian evolution and random chance could EVENTUALLY produce a bacterium, but was there enough time for this to play out? (Presumably we want the bacterium itself to further evolve into an organism capable of developing nuclear weapons, but this is left as an exercise.)

Assume that it takes a Megadalton of organic material to effect one mutation per minute. (Yes, this will be fuzzy and hand-waving.) Assume that only 20 kilograms of organic material are, on (geometric) average, in the right place for this evolution, and that only 100 million years are available. This gives time for only a trillion trillion trillion mutations, most of which will be disadvantageous. (These are American trillions. Using old-fashioned European nomenclature, only a trillion trillion mutations would be available.)

Are my numbers unreasonable? Would a trillion trillion trillion mutations be enough? Nobody knows. The analysis is far too complicated. (Those who answer "Yes, obviously enough. Life did evolve didn't it?" are assuming that which they seek to prove.)

Scientists aren't even sure whether the earliest proto-life was based on a nucleic acid, or proteins, or a combination.

I asked you if you could consider hypothetically (or philosophically as you mentioned, discussing in that vein) just pondering on the thought... that if a contained field of energy/could become 'consciously aware of its existence' given that there are no limits of time for having its own 'cosmic' evolving processes, nothing to do with the Biblical God. (I gave it a curious thought some years s back...before I became a BA Christian) You responded anyway only about me having a belief

(I'll have to look back at your question my eye sight is not good with limited screen space on this phone.)

Extra credit for all who access message boards on a phone! I couldn't do it; or if I tried would be twenty times slower compared with via laptop.

Speaking of evolution, how long will it take -- assuming humanity and high-tech both survive at all -- for humans to develop thumbs that are narrower and more agile than those of this old fogey?
 
I think some people believe that for a theory to be truly right it must account for every possible state of affairs, a complete, totalizing theory of everything. I doubt that’s possible.
That’s why the theory of evolution only explains observations. It does not predict outcomes other than change...
Sure it does. As Haldane famously pointed out, it predicts that if you go fossil hunting in Precambrian rock, the outcome will not be you finding a fossil rabbit.
That’s not an evolutionary outcome. Sorry I was imprecise.
 
I think some people believe that for a theory to be truly right it must account for every possible state of affairs, a complete, totalizing theory of everything. I doubt that’s possible.
That’s why the theory of evolution only explains observations. It does not predict outcomes other than change...
Sure it does. As Haldane famously pointed out, it predicts that if you go fossil hunting in Precambrian rock, the outcome will not be you finding a fossil rabbit.

That’s not a prediction of evolutionary theory, it’s a retrodiction. The theory cannot predict the future course of evolution.
 
Which, with respect to the above, is an interesting difference among different branches of science. Not all of them use the same methodology (there is no single “scientific method,” as Feyerabend argued) and not all make predictions. Physics and cosmology can make fairly solid predictions about the future course of events in the cosmos, but evolutionary theory can only predict that there will be future change in allele frequencies, with no idea what those changes will produce.
 
evolutionary theory can only predict future change in allele frequencies, with no idea what those changes will produce.
Upon further consideration, there are ways in which B2 is right, but it takes a synthesis of different fields.
For instance, paleontology, geology (plate tectonics) and evolutionary theory all played a part in Neal Shubin's prediction that a "fishapod" should be found in late Devonian (~375myo) rock. This WAS a prediction of ToE, but relied on the accuracy of plate tectonic theory and geological dating methods to "predict" that it would be found on Ellesmere Island. (The fact that Shubin was proven correct is instant death the YEC, as it requires that the age of the earth per the geologic record, the paleontological record and the ToE ALL had to be accurate.)

It was not a prediction about the future of evolution, but a prediction of what should be found if evolutionary theory had been operant in the past.
 
...
So a creator's first job is to separate the waters, to make a bubble of air, and to provide some dry land.

But all of this depends entirely upon the idea that the ocean is infinite in extent.

Which to anyone prior to the Early Middle Ages, was basically obvious. The Mediterranean Bronze and Iron Age seafarers were no slouches. They could sail out of sight of land, and navigate by the stars, and yet, even to them, the Atlantic went on indefinitely. It probably had an edge somewhere, so that the celestial bodies had somewhere to go when they dropped below the horizon. But that edge would, obviously and necessarily, be a waterfall of epic scale.

Nitpick. The notion that the Earth is a finite sphere is attributed to Pythagoras of Samos from the 6th-century BC, long before the Early Middle Ages. Sure, ignorant masses were unaware of or did not accept Pythagoras' teaching . . . but similar confusions apply to the ignorant masses of today.

(Pythagoras' signature does not appear on any document; my mentioning of him may bring ridicule upon myself. Thinking Pythagoras even existed may lump me with those gullible enough to believe Edward de Vere or Jesus of Nazareth existed. However Parmenides of Elea did explicitly write about the Earth's sphericity about a century before the time of Aristotle.)

I just started skimming this thread and am still not sure what it's about! But on the matter of the earliest religions and notions of God, early man had little concern about the Original Creation. Early man was more concerned with questions about whether a particular plant was edible, or why he shouldn't shag his sister.

Early civilizations were keen observers of the skys. Because agriculture demanded knowing the best times to plow, sow, and reap. Get that wrong and people starved to death. Why Stonehenge existed.
 
evolutionary theory can only predict that there will be future change in allele frequencies, with no idea what those changes will produce.
Not so.

Those changes will produce evolutionary fitness.

Gravitational theory cannot predict what side up a coin will land; But it can certainly predict that it will land closer to the floor, and further from the ceiling, than the highest point in its trajectory.
 
Those changes will produce evolutionary fitness.
That’s a fluid value, entirely dependent upon the fitness landscape. No telling what “fitness” is going to look like tomorrow.
 
Those changes will produce evolutionary fitness.
That’s a fluid value, entirely dependent upon the fitness landscape. No telling what “fitness” is going to look like tomorrow.

Well, I think that ‘s the point. The theory predicts gene changes over time, and incorporates already the idea of fitness, but we don’t know what the fitness will produce. As to a coin toss, it’s true that gravitational theory won’t predict the outcome, but that’s because a lot of factors besides gravity are involved: wind speed, air pressure, how hard and at what angle the coin was flipped, the condition of the coin itself, etc. However, physics can predict with a high degree of likliehood what the orbits of the planets will look thousand or even millions of years from now, about when the sun will burn itself out, and many other things that are not affected by outside factors. Evolutionry theory can’t tell you a thing about what life will look like millions or billions of years from now, or even whether it will exist.
 
evolutionary theory can only predict future change in allele frequencies, with no idea what those changes will produce.
Upon further consideration, there are ways in which B2 is right, but it takes a synthesis of different fields.
For instance, paleontology, geology (plate tectonics) and evolutionary theory all played a part in Neal Shubin's prediction that a "fishapod" should be found in late Devonian (~375myo) rock. This WAS a prediction of ToE, but relied on the accuracy of plate tectonic theory and geological dating methods to "predict" that it would be found on Ellesmere Island. (The fact that Shubin was proven correct is instant death the YEC, as it requires that the age of the earth per the geologic record, the paleontological record and the ToE ALL had to be accurate.)

It was not a prediction about the future of evolution, but a prediction of what should be found if evolutionary theory had been operant in the past.

I don‘t say he’s wrong about this as such, but merely that prediction about the past is technically retrodiction. What we’d like to know is if it can make a successful prediction in the usual sense, about the future. It can make some predictions, but certainly not about such concrete things as what species will be around and look like a few million or or even a few tens of thousands of years hence.
 
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