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Fallout - The Trump Shutdown

Too lazy to start a poll, but wanted to ask -
What will the fallout of the Trump Shutdown look like?
Helps one party or another?
Helps or hurts Trump?

Bonus question: How long will De Gummint be shut down?

The short lived shut down is only a first step. The latest reopening is temporary and then we go through this again. So it is too early to be making predictions how this will play out. DACA must be renewed in March. All of this will play out over the next few months. Louisiana representitive Steve Scalise is now saying tha helping dreamers would anger the GOP base. Not doing so will anger the base of pro-Dreamer supporters. So just as the election season starts up, all of this will become real issues. DACA and a budget deal are now intertwined so it's going to be a bitter fight to settle this. We are only in Act One so far. And we have no idea how el Trumo will go as this all heats up. Trumpo is bellowing that the "Democrats have caved!" What they really did was left the GOP with an issue that gives them a choice. Cave in and anger their base, fail to help the Dreamers and piss everybody else off.

For us political junkie types, this is going to be an interesting year. But so far, the GOP is setting itself on fire.

What politics have you been watching over the past 20 years? The Dems are guaranteed to be more harmed by this and snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory yet again.
While optics of the resuming o government business is not positive for the Democrats, I don't exactly see where the Dems had victory in sight. America is for DACA by majority. But America was against the shutdown being used to push DACA into law. Schumer was in a bad situation of pushing for a majority supported position via the only maneuver available to him... and the same people supporting DACA were against that maneuver. The Dems didn't fail, the people (and their inability to understand how Congress is run at this time) did.

So Schumer pulled out. It doesn't look great, but it is hardly a victory for Republicans as presented, as all they managed to do was Stopgap Bill again. They own the Government and can barely get a Stopgap Bill through, forget about a budget.

In general, the future of the Dems is far more bleak than the GOP. The Dems used to win by depending on the Union vote. Unions are dying and soon to be extinct. Lack of the Union vote for Dems is the #1 reason Trump won. The Dem's reliable base is comprised mostly of aging traditional liberals who think (rightly) that supporting a moderate party capable of limiting the power of rightist extremists is a better strategy than trying to appeal to a more extreme left base that doesn't vote and doesn't have enough money or organization to support a viable campaign.
The union people I've been working around recently have been pretty pro-Trump. I tried to explain the irony to them, but their minds have been warped badly by so many years of propaganda to get it.

The Democrats have problems mainly because of 30 years of propaganda that has successfully manipulated opinion and misinformed people. Despite 8 years of a relatively successful Obama Administration... people voted for the party that handed Obama the worst economy since the Great Depression. These people thought we were still in recession at the end of Obama's Presidency, but now use the same economic numbers to prove Trump's plan is working.

Now, there is hope, based on the turnout we have seen in small off season elections. But that turnout has to be seen in November.
 
...even born here to people who entered illegally and then considering them merely "undocumented immigrants" IS a problem...

People born in the U.S.A. are U.S. citizens; not "undocumented immigrants".

Yes, they are. However, they are guilty of the crime of being Hispanic - you know, like that judge whom Cheato deemed unqualified because he was born in Indiana... but his parents weren't.
 
What politics have you been watching over the past 20 years? The Dems are guaranteed to be more harmed by this and snatch defeat from the Jaws of victory yet again.
While optics of the resuming o government business is not positive for the Democrats, I don't exactly see where the Dems had victory in sight. America is for DACA by majority. But America was against the shutdown being used to push DACA into law. Schumer was in a bad situation of pushing for a majority supported position via the only maneuver available to him... and the same people supporting DACA were against that maneuver. The Dems didn't fail, the people (and their inability to understand how Congress is run at this time) did.

So Schumer pulled out. It doesn't look great, but it is hardly a victory for Republicans as presented, as all they managed to do was Stopgap Bill again. They own the Government and can barely get a Stopgap Bill through, forget about a budget.

I wasn't referring to "victory" specifically related to DACA, but victory in the the 2018 and 2020 elections. Dems are great at finding ways to lose elections they should, and lose PR battles. I'm not saying Schumer did anything wrong here, but it's likely that the Dems will screw up in fighting the PR battle over this.

In general, the future of the Dems is far more bleak than the GOP. The Dems used to win by depending on the Union vote. Unions are dying and soon to be extinct. Lack of the Union vote for Dems is the #1 reason Trump won. The Dem's reliable base is comprised mostly of aging traditional liberals who think (rightly) that supporting a moderate party capable of limiting the power of rightist extremists is a better strategy than trying to appeal to a more extreme left base that doesn't vote and doesn't have enough money or organization to support a viable campaign.
The union people I've been working around recently have been pretty pro-Trump. I tried to explain the irony to them, but their minds have been warped badly by so many years of propaganda to get it.

That's just it. The Unions are dying and Dems are not (and cannot) do much to save them. This has led to the few Union people that are left to lose their only reason for voting Dem in the past. On average, Union workers have been prone to xenophobic racism and conservative social values. So, the fact that Dems are no longer seen as the reliable salvation of Union jobs, combined with Trump's courting of xenophobic racists (unlike anything in the modern West since about 1933), led to Trump get more of the Union vote than any Republican in 32 years. It is what won him WI, MI, PA, and thus the election.


The Democrats have problems mainly because of 30 years of propaganda that has successfully manipulated opinion and misinformed people. Despite 8 years of a relatively successful Obama Administration... people voted for the party that handed Obama the worst economy since the Great Depression. These people thought we were still in recession at the end of Obama's Presidency, but now use the same economic numbers to prove Trump's plan is working.

Yeah, this is part of what I was referring to by saying the Dems are good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Hell, Obama should have won by 20 points, but probably wouldn't even have won in 2008, if the collapse of Lehman Brothers had come 2 months later.
They suck at messaging and controlling the narrative. They allow themselves to get sucked into debates that focus on race, gender, sexuality, etc., completely ignoring the greater concerns of the majority of people most likely to actually vote for them. Then there are the vocal left that overtly dismiss the problems of those potential voters because they are too white, straight, and cis-gendered (aka "privileged") to have real problems. The Dems are not taking issue with that racist nonsense coming from the left, so they lose moderates to the rightwing candidates that do. Meanwhile the leftists that want the conversation to be myopically focused on those disenfranchised groups don't bother to vote.

The Dems are being forced to choose between having at least minimal appeal to moderates and independents that actually vote and to companies that have $ to fund viable campaigns versus appeal only to the most extreme elements of an uncompromising myopic left that doesn't vote anyway and has no money.
 
There is no such 'anchor baby' loophole.

That's a fiction?

If you come to the USA illegally and have a baby on US soil, does that baby not get automatic US citizenship? I have heard they do. If so, why? What is the justification for that? Can that person then be used to help the parents and other relatives in to the country? That's what I understood the "anchor baby" thing to be.
I understand how it works. I said it's not a "loophole" as you put it.

- - - Updated - - -

...even born here to people who entered illegally and then considering them merely "undocumented immigrants" IS a problem...

People born in the U.S.A. are U.S. citizens; not "undocumented immigrants".

Yes, they are. However, they are guilty of the crime of being Hispanic - you know, like that judge whom Cheato deemed unqualified because he was born in Indiana... but his parents weren't.
Kind of like Marco Rubio.....oh wait.....
 
There is no such 'anchor baby' loophole.

That's a fiction?

If you come to the USA illegally and have a baby on US soil, does that baby not get automatic US citizenship? I have heard they do. If so, why?
The USA confers birthright citizehshil or  Jus_soli) like many other countries.
Can that person then be used to help the parents and other relatives in to the country? That's what I understood the "anchor baby" thing to be.
It is not a very successful defense from deportation or towards citizenship - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/20/the-myth-of-the-anchor-baby-deportation-defense/?utm_term=.1cdc5d920307
 
In general, the future of the Dems is far more bleak than the GOP. The Dems used to win by depending on the Union vote. Unions are dying and soon to be extinct. Lack of the Union vote for Dems is the #1 reason Trump won.

If things were "normal" I'd tend to agree. But at this point I'd be pleased to see both parties and their whole apparatus go the way of the dinosaur. Dems' traditional base has basically disappeared, and they're left with "...but better than the other guys". On the other side, the Republican party is now beholden to the racists and Nazis among us, and I don't see them even trying to find a way to rehabilitate their brand, which is now "The Party of Racists, Nazis, Pedophiles and Oligarchs".
Should things continue this way, there might even be an historic opening for a centrist third party or independent candidate in 2020. More likely though, a third party or independent candidate could enable the re-election of the most corrupt and stupid "president" in the history of the US - maybe the world.
 
Kind of like Marco Rubio.....oh wait.....

Lol! ya mean "Little Marco"?
Oh - no, you're referring to The Great Trumpsucker Senator Marco Rubio.
That's always a ticket to forgiveness in this administration. He will even forgive a black person (e.g. what's his name... Carson), as long as gets his dick sucked.
 
In general, the future of the Dems is far more bleak than the GOP. The Dems used to win by depending on the Union vote. Unions are dying and soon to be extinct. Lack of the Union vote for Dems is the #1 reason Trump won.

If things were "normal" I'd tend to agree. But at this point I'd be pleased to see both parties and their whole apparatus go the way of the dinosaur. Dems' traditional base has basically disappeared, and they're left with "...but better than the other guys". On the other side, the Republican party is now beholden to the racists and Nazis among us, and I don't see them even trying to find a way to rehabilitate their brand, which is now "The Party of Racists, Nazis, Pedophiles and Oligarchs".
Should things continue this way, there might even be an historic opening for a centrist third party or independent candidate in 2020. More likely though, a third party or independent candidate could enable the re-election of the most corrupt and stupid "president" in the history of the US - maybe the world.


Money controlled politics is here to stay. The fact that most political influence now occurs via the internet makes that more of a certainty than ever, because money will always control the dominant narratives, memes, and discourse on the internet. The GOP has most of the 1%, corporate America, organized religion, and nefarious foreign governments bankrolling them. That is why the Dems or any party can only beat them by having a platform that appeals to at least some people with money but also enough of a conscience to vote for something other than lowering their own their taxes.

The only realistic hope of defeating Trump in 2020 (or the GOP generally in the next decades) is for the Dems to be that centrist party. And a moderate Dem party can only win if the growing number of leftist ideologues grow up and realize that the only winners in a democracy are those that compromise. So, if leftists who didn't vote for a "just as bad" Hillary continue to refuse to compromise with moderate liberals giving us a government where progress occurs at a slow but not coercive forced rate, then we will all lose to an alliance between moderate conservatives and the far-right, resulting in what we have now and worse.
 
And a moderate Dem party can only win if the growing number of leftist ideologues grow up and realize that the only winners in a democracy are those that compromise. So, if leftists who didn't vote for a "just as bad" Hillary continue to refuse to compromise with moderate liberals giving us a government where progress occurs at a slow but not coercive forced rate, then we will all lose to an alliance between moderate conservatives and the far-right, resulting in what we have now and worse.

Tried that. It didn't work. What else you got?
 
In general, the future of the Dems is far more bleak than the GOP. The Dems used to win by depending on the Union vote. Unions are dying and soon to be extinct. Lack of the Union vote for Dems is the #1 reason Trump won.

If things were "normal" I'd tend to agree. But at this point I'd be pleased to see both parties and their whole apparatus go the way of the dinosaur. Dems' traditional base has basically disappeared, and they're left with "...but better than the other guys". On the other side, the Republican party is now beholden to the racists and Nazis among us, and I don't see them even trying to find a way to rehabilitate their brand, which is now "The Party of Racists, Nazis, Pedophiles and Oligarchs".
Should things continue this way, there might even be an historic opening for a centrist third party or independent candidate in 2020. More likely though, a third party or independent candidate could enable the re-election of the most corrupt and stupid "president" in the history of the US - maybe the world.


Money controlled politics is here to stay. The fact that most political influence now occurs via the internet makes that more of a certainty than ever, because money will always control the dominant narratives, memes, and discourse on the internet. The GOP has most of the 1%, corporate America, organized religion, and nefarious foreign governments bankrolling them. That is why the Dems or any party can only beat them by having a platform that appeals to at least some people with money but also enough of a conscience to vote for something other than lowering their own their taxes.

The only realistic hope of defeating Trump in 2020 (or the GOP generally in the next decades) is for the Dems to be that centrist party. And a moderate Dem party can only win if the growing number of leftist ideologues grow up and realize that the only winners in a democracy are those that compromise. So, if leftists who didn't vote for a "just as bad" Hillary continue to refuse to compromise with moderate liberals giving us a government where progress occurs at a slow but not coercive forced rate, then we will all lose to an alliance between moderate conservatives and the far-right, resulting in what we have now and worse.

I'm afraid you're right about all of that. If I had to bet, I'd say that if Trump can make it through 2019, he's a shoo-in. Even if he can't, all the GOP needs is someone who looks good on TV. I am assuming that there will be a flood of independent candidates crowding both the moderate left and the moderate right in 2020. But the rethuglicans have their 30-35% unthinking base who might as well cast their vote right now, since they'll check off whoever has the "R" next to their name. Dems have no such thing.
 
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