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Fine-Tuning Argument vs Argument From Miracles

Correction: The Jesus story is religious myth created 2000 years ago. It includes many extraordinary events unsupported by evidence.

Lumpenproletariat uses many words to try to hide the fact that his whole argument revolves around the principle that it's more likely that a man walked on storm-tossed water than that people invented stories that included a man walking on storm-tossed water.

I've said this before, but Lumpenproletariat keeps saying the same debunked things over and over, so I'll simply repeat this simple fact occasionally just as a reminder.
 
So the only possible flaw is in whether it really happened,

Laugh - that’s kind of a big flaw, wouldn’t you say?
And your argument that there is “empirical evidence” is that 40 years later someone was telling that story.

Feels like you’re saying you’ll believe anything.


Otherwise there's no error, or flaw in the logic. The facts are there, in the written accounts from the time,
No, as is quite clear, not “the time,” but rather 40 years later. That’s two generations, you know.

like for any other historical events, except in this case we have much more evidence than required for ordinary events,
You keep saying that. But what you call “evidence,” isn’t evidence.

I mean, I get that it’s enough for you, but it’s not evidence. It would be insufficient to even get FDA approval for a new food.


so the requirement for some extra evidence (for miracle claims) is met,
You keep saying that.
It has not been met. So many people have clarified why not. You turn around and repeat your claim like you’ve never read what anyone wrote.
Like you are unwilling to consider actual evidence.



Atheos is right.
Your whole argument depends on convincing people that a miracle is more likely than a mistake (or a lie)
That’s eye-poppingly bankrupt as an argument.
 
Nightmare solved.

I was stuck at DFW airport this Wednesday waiting for a delayed connection, and I spent about an hour watching the antics of a cockatoo named Mr Max.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtnY5vJ-2SaEIeE1zhA_xxA

Cockatoos are fascinating creatures. They are intelligent, they can learn to mimic the human voice, and some can pick up a vocabulary of over a hundred words. If you follow the youtube link and watch some of the videos, you will find that cockatoos can engage in "conversations" with their owners, a back-and-forth dialog that mimics conversations between humans. They string together the words and sounds they know to make it sound like they are actually communicating using human language. But no matter how smart the bird might appear at first glance, cockatoos do not have nervous systems capable of abstract thought, or the ability to engage in actual conversation with a human.

Lumpy's posting habits bear a strong resemblance to the mimicry of the cockatoo. For over a year now Lumpy had been putting together walls of text using words from the English language, but when you read the text you discover that they say nothing, or very little.

Just like the cockatoo puts together strings of words and sounds that communicate nothing or very little, Lumpy puts together long chains of words that communicate nothing or very little.

You can talk back to the cockatoo and try to explain an idea to it, but the cockatoo will not understand you; it will simply repeat the words and sounds it knows. Likewise, you can talk back to Lumpy and point out why his claims make no sense, and Lumpy will simply repeat what he said before, over and over and over, seemingly incapable of understanding anyone's posts.

The cockatoo will sometimes throw tantrums and make loud noises when it cannot get its way. Likewise, Lumpy will sometime throw tantrums, complaining that others are not willing to accept his claims as presented.

I am not saying that Lumpy's cognitive abilities are the same as the cockatoo's. I am sure that is not the case. However, Lumpy is apparently unable to engage in a rational debate about the historicity of Biblical claims, and his posting habits on the subject for well over a year have demonstrated this fact over and over. I am the fool here for continuing to try, not Lumpy, or the cockatoo.

Anyway, do check out Mr Max on youtube. Fascinating bird!

I'm calling "Fowl!" on this one.

Check the videos -- you'll notice that the birds do almost nothing of what is described here. They do not speak any "vocabulary of over a hundred words" or even 10 words, they do not "engage in 'conversations'" with anyone (squawking and hooting is not "conversation"), they do not do "back-and-forth dialog that mimics conversations between humans," they do not "string together the words and sounds they know to make it sound like they are actually communicating using human language," and they do not put together "strings of words" -- though they do make sounds "that communicate nothing or very little," which is normal for many animals, including humans.

So, before the cockatoos woke him up and confused him, where did atrib really view the above goofy characters who "repeat the words and sounds" and funny squawks and "throw tantrums and make loud noises" and can't "engage in a rational debate"? Maybe it was this show:


 
So The Book stories prove miracles and miracles prove God. And God had a The Book published that prove miracles.
Sound like idolatry to me. Book Worship.
Hey, I understand... it's all ya got.
 
(This is a redo of the previous in case the images at the end didn't work.)


I was stuck at DFW airport this Wednesday waiting for a delayed connection, and I spent about an hour watching the antics of a cockatoo named Mr Max.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtnY5vJ-2SaEIeE1zhA_xxA

Cockatoos are fascinating creatures. They are intelligent, they can learn to mimic the human voice, and some can pick up a vocabulary of over a hundred words. If you follow the youtube link and watch some of the videos, you will find that cockatoos can engage in "conversations" with their owners, a back-and-forth dialog that mimics conversations between humans. They string together the words and sounds they know to make it sound like they are actually communicating using human language. But no matter how smart the bird might appear at first glance, cockatoos do not have nervous systems capable of abstract thought, or the ability to engage in actual conversation with a human.

Lumpy's posting habits bear a strong resemblance to the mimicry of the cockatoo. For over a year now Lumpy had been putting together walls of text using words from the English language, but when you read the text you discover that they say nothing, or very little.

Just like the cockatoo puts together strings of words and sounds that communicate nothing or very little, Lumpy puts together long chains of words that communicate nothing or very little.

You can talk back to the cockatoo and try to explain an idea to it, but the cockatoo will not understand you; it will simply repeat the words and sounds it knows. Likewise, you can talk back to Lumpy and point out why his claims make no sense, and Lumpy will simply repeat what he said before, over and over and over, seemingly incapable of understanding anyone's posts.

The cockatoo will sometimes throw tantrums and make loud noises when it cannot get its way. Likewise, Lumpy will sometime throw tantrums, complaining that others are not willing to accept his claims as presented.

I am not saying that Lumpy's cognitive abilities are the same as the cockatoo's. I am sure that is not the case. However, Lumpy is apparently unable to engage in a rational debate about the historicity of Biblical claims, and his posting habits on the subject for well over a year have demonstrated this fact over and over. I am the fool here for continuing to try, not Lumpy, or the cockatoo.

Anyway, do check out Mr Max on youtube. Fascinating bird!

I'm calling "Fowl!" on this one.

Check the videos -- you'll notice that the birds do almost nothing of what is described here. They do not speak any "vocabulary of over a hundred words" or even 10 words, they do not "engage in 'conversations'" with anyone (squawking and hooting is not "conversation"), they do not do "back-and-forth dialog that mimics conversations between humans," they do not "string together the words and sounds they know to make it sound like they are actually communicating using human language," and they do not put together "strings of words" -- though they do make sounds "that communicate nothing or very little," which is normal for many animals, including humans.

So, before the cockatoos woke him up and confused him, where did atrib really view the above goofy characters who "repeat the words and sounds" and funny squawks and "throw tantrums and make loud noises" and can't "engage in a rational debate"? Maybe it was this show: https://www.ucpublicaffairs.com/hom...andidates-debate-success-by-patrick-a-stewart
 
Inventing your own special facts or definitions cannot erase the Jesus miracles from history.

If a miracle is defined as 'inexplicable', then any event we can explain as having a god as a cause is by definition not a miracle. Either that, or the existence of miracles proves that the concept of god has no explanatory value.

Either way, theism is contraindicated.

Unless you see it from the angle that the word "miracle", was used to express a simple contextual term ,... before the defined description became "later" defined and refined, as you've described in your quote.

So, unless the things people called 'miracles' in the past were not, in fact, miracles?

But YOU DON'T KNOW they were not in fact miracles.

If you're not prejudiced against everyone in the past, and are willing to grant that some of them were not inferior imbeciles who knew nothing at all, then you have to allow that sometimes they were right, even if other times they were mistaken, and you have to take each claim they made one at a time, rather than condemning everything they said which contained a "miracle" word. You don't know that every such claim they made had to be false. You don't have infallible omniscience to be able to condemn every statement from the past you don't like. In some cases their description of what happened is probably true.

You don't prove your superiority over them by claiming you know all the truth and they knew nothing because of their ignorant culture. In some cases they may have witnessed something, or known someone else who did, which was contrary to your prejudice about what they should have experienced, in which case it might be your prejudice which is mistaken rather than their perception of what happened.


I agree entirely. They called lots of things miracles, but they were wrong.

Who was wrong? You still have to look at the facts of each case, or each claim they made. In some cases they may have been wrong, if we can see what their mistake was, in view of later knowledge/science they didn't have, but in other cases they were right, or we don't know for sure what happened and cannot rule out the possibility that they were right to think a "miracle" happened. There are plenty of unexplained events, meaning no one knows what caused it, even now centuries later, with our increased knowledge.

So in some cases they were right, and in other cases they were wrong -- we have to judge from the evidence in each case. Anything else is prejudice and bigotry.


Either they were wrong about what happened; Or wrong to call it miraculous.

No, you can't just impose your either-or onto everything based on your ideology and bigoted definition of what everything has to be. You cannot prove someone wrong just by redefining the terminology to conform to your prejudice. You can't wipe out facts of history by defining them as "impossible" based on the semantics you impose in order to advance your prejudice.

You can conjecture that this or that claim is unlikely and that there's probably a better explanation they weren't aware of, but that's only a conjecture. Most of our explanations today, about ancient "miracle" claims, have no more credibility than those of 500 or 1000 or 2000 years ago. Your conjecture about what happened is just as likely to be wrong as their claim that a "miracle" happened.


Stuff like a guy being crucified -- which is deliberately intended to be a long, slow and painful death over many days -- passing out after a day or so, being mistakenly declared dead, and then recovering after a few days lying down out of the direct sun.

But that's all conjecture only, based on no facts, and contradicting the written accounts we have. There are reasons they would not take him down by mistake, with him still alive. You can imagine this and a million other hypothetical scenarios of what happened, but the probability is low. The Romans would not make such a mistake. Rather, they would insist on leaving the victim up longer if there was any doubt, because the intent was for the condemned one to die, and even to rot on the cross for many days -- never to allow any chance of him surviving. So in any case where a body was taken down, there had to be certainty first that he was dead.

Obviously one can conjecture that our accounts are mistaken about what happened, as you can conjecture about any ancient written record of the events, casting doubt on any historical fact. But we need evidence, not just a premise that no such thing as a resurrection could ever happen. The narrative that he was taken down prematurely is based on the premise that the whole story has to be false, somehow, and so we must concoct something which makes the report (evidence) false. Of course you can conjecture this about some evidence you don't like, and thus expunge it from the record, to sanitize it and make it agree with your prejudice, but that's not history or facts. You can't give any reason why others should conjecture the same as you, but can only claim that this deletion of evidence from the record makes you feel good, and maybe some others sharing your prejudice might choose to do the same conjecture and delete the offending evidence.



Believing the evidence of the written record from the time

vs

Believing ideological doctrines about what should or should not happen in history

But what's more reasonable is to assume that the reports are true, about what happened generally, with no other accounts contradicting it, or to leave it in the doubtful category as to the miracle element. And, the Resurrection might be rightly disbelieved if we also had an account contradicting it, such as a claim that he didn't really die but was taken down prematurely. Trying to be skeptical, we could give more credibility to such evidence contradicting the miracle claim, if any existed. But there is no such account contradicting it, so we can either believe the evidence we do have, or we can reject the only evidence and rely on conjecture based on an ideological premise that no "miracle" event can ever happen.

It's more reasonable to believe the evidence we actually have, with nothing anywhere contradicting it.

We have accounts by Josephus and later by Lucian, of this general period, which contradict miracle claims of this or that wacko cult, or ridiculing the "messiah" charlatans here and there. There was an intelligent rational skepticism toward such claims and denunciation of them in written accounts which survived. So the reported Resurrection of Jesus could have been doubted and contradicted in some written account somewhere, if it didn't really happen. But with nothing denying it and all the evidence affirming this event, it's reasonable to believe it really happened. There is only conjecture to suggest otherwise, without any evidence from the existing written accounts. It's reasonable to accept what we're told in the only evidence, coming from multiple sources.

Of course you can conjecture that somehow he was still alive and was taken down prematurely, but this requires disregarding all the evidence and relying on prejudice only, driven by an ideology impulse which insists that the "miracle" is not possible and has to be ruled out no matter what, regardless of the evidence.

A reasonable conjecture would be that he was taken down later than the biblical account says, rather than in only a few hours. The risk of him still being alive might require a special inspection. Rather than that, the Romans more likely would insist that he had to remain there for 2 or 3 days. There is no reason to insist that it happened the same day, after only a few hours. The chronology of the Gospel writers is ambiguous, and some symbolism gets mixed in with the real facts. So getting bogged down in the details of the exact times and chronology is a needless exercise leading to no definite conclusions.

But the general report in all the accounts is that he died and was buried but later seen alive, and the tomb found empty -- all agreed to by the different accounts and thus probable, while the rest is more doubtful, because of confusion about the details. That some details become dubious need not detract from the general fact of the actual death and later resurrection, as this is agreed to by all the accounts.


It's not particularly implausible; Certainly it's not miraculous.

But it's highly unlikely that he was taken down prematurely, while still alive, and then recovered after a few days or weeks. You can say it's not implausible, but it's unlikely, and so one can reasonably disbelieve this is what happened, as being very unlikely, and as contradicting what all the accounts say happened. It's reasonable to believe the written reports, from several sources, saying what happened, and disbelieve a conjecture with no evidence and contradicting all the written accounts from the time.

And if the Resurrection did happen as the accounts claim, then it is "miraculous" as being an event which is unexplained by our known science, and regardless of the historical period when it happened. So the "miracle" element has nothing to do with anything we know today which was not known by those of the 1st century. We today have no more reason to doubt the truth of the claim than they did back then, when a resurrection from the dead was just as unlikely as it is today, and was known by people of that time to be unlikely. People back then did not believe such events happened anymore than we do today. That it's claimed to have happened in this one case only, reported in multiple accounts of the period, sets this reported event apart from normal events, and also from ancient legends containing miracle stories which evolved over many centuries.

If resurrection hoaxes/fictions were possible back then, widely believed and reported as true, because the people were superstitious and unscientific, then we would have other cases of reported resurrections from the time, and yet we have no other examples of it. There are no other cases of someone, an historical person, reported as rising from the dead in written accounts near to the time of the alleged event. There are other cases? Where? Where is the written account of it? Don't just regurgitate a laundry list of meaningless names spoon-fed to you by your favorite Jesus-debunker-guru-pundit. Quote from the written text source, dated from the time of the alleged event. There are no other cases. If there were, you could quote the ancient text relating the event, which you cannot do.


But in the context of a pre-medical age, when a weak heartbeat and shallow breath could easily be mistaken for death, it could certainly be mistaken for a miracle.

No more so than today. We have no evidence that live bodies were mistaken for dead, at that time, anymore than today.

In war time and other cases of widespread death and mayhem, there are such mistakes, including in modern history. But it's not due to lack of medical knowledge, but rather to the large number of bodies, which cannot explain this case in 30 AD where there were 3 crucified victims, or only a few, in contrast to the cases when hundreds were crucified at one time. So there's nothing about the Jesus death showing similarity to cases where live bodies were mistaken for dead.

His followers, mainly the Galileans who came with him to Jerusalem, would want him taken down, but not because they thought he was still alive, but rather because they wanted to give him a proper burial. So the narrative of him being taken down -- after he was dead -- makes sense, whereas usually the crucified victims were left for many days or weeks.


Miracles don't happen. Never have, never will.

That has a certain "ring" to it -- Grab a banjo and put it to music. Yee-haw!


There's no possible mechanism for them --

"possible mechanism"? There are many unexplained events. We don't need to know how it was possible in order to know that some unusual event happened, because it's reported in the written accounts saying that it happened. You don't prove that an unusual event did not happen simply by saying we don't know the "mechanism" to make it possible.

What is the "mechanism" to make matter possible in the universe, or space, or electrons? How does anything exist? We don't know the "mechanism" for everything that ever happened -- we just know things happen, because we experience them one way or another, and events in the past are reported by others who experienced them. Just because we can't identify the "mechanism" which made it possible does not mean a reported event did not happen.


-- and no phenomenon that cannot be understood without them.

It doesn't matter whether they can be "understood" -- all that matters is whether they happened. I.e., whether certain alleged "miracle" events did or did not happen, and also how important it is, or what is the significance if it's true that it happened. Perhaps the Jesus miracle acts did all happen, and perhaps they can all be "understood" if we have enough information about them, about his power source. One can believe the Jesus miracles are real, i.e., facts of history, or real historical facts in the 1st century, without any claim about whether they can be "understood" by someone somewhere.

We can believe reported events without understanding everything about them, or being able to explain them, and even allowing that maybe someone does understand them even if we don't ourselves. Who understands them, or whether they might be understood by someone somewhere having more knowledge than ourselves, etc., is not essential to the question of whether the events actually happened. If it happened, there obviously has to be some explanation, or some source behind it, or some power existing somewhere to make it possible or cause it to happen.

Being not "understood" or unexplainable or a "mystery" etc. is not the point. The point is that some power source existed to make those things happen, and it's "good news" that this power does exist, whether someone somewhere understands it or not, or might understand it some time in the future. If the evidence is that it happened, then there is reason to believe it, regardless whether or not it can be "understood" somehow. One could be "amazed" or "astonished" at it, etc., or be overjoyed to hear this "good news" or be perplexed, scratch their head, and so on, but none of that tells us whether the event really happened. Those who believe it can be "religious" about it or have "visions" or a "blessing" and so on, but all that matters is whether it happened or not, and what the significance is if such a power exists to make eternal life possible.


Miracles are make-believe.

Probably most of them are. MOST miracle claims, not all. It's purely a dogmatic outburst to demand that NO miracle claims can ever be true. To disregard the evidence in individual cases is based on prejudice, not on science or truth-seeking.


Grownups don't think that they are real.

translation: Miracle claims must always be rejected as false, even in cases where a miracle really did happen, because it's unwholesome and immature to believe such claims even when they're true. Any evidence that a miracle happened must be suppressed, because it's unhealthy for people to believe it, regardless whether it's true. The appropriate experts know what's healthy for us to believe and not to believe, regardless of the facts, and these experts should shape our beliefs, for the good of society, regardless of any facts or evidence. Ideology about what's healthy for people to think must take priority over the facts.
 
Seriously, after TEN MONTHS of effort, that's the best you could manage in response?

Dude, you seriously need to learn when to give up on a losing position.

Nobody cares what you think about an argument made ten months ago. Nobody.
 
There is more evidence for Bigfoot and Santa Claus than Jesus of the bible. Every Christmas our defense network tracks Santa across he country on RAAR. Doesn't make Santa real, it makes Santa a pleasant seasonal myth.

There are no contemporaneous accounts of Jesus or any biblical supernatural events.
 
Seriously, after TEN MONTHS of effort, that's the best you could manage in response?
i don'tthink that's ten months of effort, though.
Lumpy really likes a big lag time in refuting posts as people lose interest, or forget what they were planning to add, or drop the thread on the conversation so far. I think the delay is tactical.
 
Lumpenproletariat said:
If you're not prejudiced against everyone in the past

:rolleyes:

and are willing to grant that some of them were not inferior imbeciles who knew nothing at all

What has "knowledge" to do with any of this? Does having a master's degree somehow mean Bigfoot is real? Or that me claiming I saw a house turn into a lion's head mean the house actually turned into a lion's head?

And exactly how many people back then knew something relevant to whether or not a forty year old claim of a man/god resurrecting was true?

then you have to allow that sometimes they were right, even if other times they were mistaken

So, your response--after all this time--is to argue averages somehow make a claim true?

How many leprechauns are dancing around you right now? Married to a mermaid are you? Can you see the keyboard through the billions of tons of ghost ectoplasm that necessarily must be covering everything on this planet since time immemorial?

YOU KNOW THIS IS BULLSHIT. Yet you keep regurgitating it. You would NEVER apply such ridiculous standards to anything else in your life, which should be all you need to know about yourself and your beliefs. And yet, you cling to the merry-go-round.
 
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Just screaming "Hearsay! Fraud! Horseshit!" doesn't negate the evidence.

With a little bit of historical digging, so to speak, it was noticed that Santa Claus appeared much later than St. Nick. A merging of two images. Its good we seem to all know and agree with this,... as well as the bunnies coming about. (Those tales differing from the miracle stories appearing right from the mentioning of Jesus .. and not added on later to the character.)

You say magically rising in the sky,... I'd like to say instead : God sent an anti-gravity field (keeping with the times).

Why should anyone care what you would like to say? What matters is what actually happened - and you have no way of knowing the answer to that.

We have EVIDENCE to indicate what happened, as we have for historical facts generally. In some cases there's much evidence, and in other cases very little. Yet even with scant evidence we believe what's in our history books, much of which is based on one source only, separated in some cases by 2 or 3 or 4 centuries. It's reasonable to believe it if it's reported as fact in extra sources which say it happened.

"no way of knowing the answer" -- that's correct, no way of knowing for sure -- because so much of our accepted history is based on evidence giving us reason to believe, though we don't know for sure. It's about believing based on evidence.

We can pick it apart piece by piece -- i.e., the ascension of Jesus is reported in really only one source, the Luke-Acts author, but it's also affirmed in the late Mark (end of ch. 16), so there is some evidence for this. But the death and resurrection is reported in 5 sources, so there's extra evidence for this, plus also the healing stories. This evidence is far greater than we have for many of our historical facts, which we routinely accept, and also is lacking for any other miracle claims or legends from ancient times. The reason to reject most of the miracle legends is that there is no evidence for them, unlike the Jesus miracle acts for which we have much evidence.


You say God did something, but you have no evidence that any gods have ever done anything, . . .

That's correct for the ancient miracle legends, such as they are. Or for the miracles of Moses and Elijah and Elisha we have one source, and this separated from the alleged events by centuries, making this evidence very weak. But for the Jesus miracle acts we have more evidence than for many historical events which we routinely accept, in extra sources near the time of the alleged events.

. . . no evidence . . . other than hearsay.

You can call it that, for dramatic effect, but it's the same kind of evidence we have for 99% of our ancient history. It's all based on what some writer says happened, and that writer did not witness the events himself, 98% of the time, but relied on "hearsay" from others. So every time you open your ancient history book and read of those events, remember that there's no evidence for it (or 99% of it) except hearsay. If "hearsay" is unacceptable as evidence, then forget all that nonsense you believe about the Greeks and Romans. Virtually all of it is based on hearsay.


Worse, your sources tell us that god intervened a lot, in a wide variety of circumstances. And then suddenly stopped intervening, just as we developed the skills to critically examine claims of miracles.

It's not clear when "we developed the skills to critically examine" this or that. If these skills developed at a particular date in history, does this mean that nothing before this date ever really happened?

The evidence tells us that Jesus did miracle acts at around the time of 30 AD, not any earlier or later, because that's when he was in history. Of course there are many "sources" saying many other claims or legends, of one kind or another, and for virtually all the miracle claims there is no serious evidence. Regardless when "the skills to critically examine" suddenly developed or events "suddenly stopped" happening.

If the "skills to critically examine" means modern science, that would be maybe 1500 or 1600 AD or so, meaning nothing in any written record ever happened before that?


That strikes me as HUGELY suspicious. I mean, god doing miracles seems unlikely; But god doing miracles only when nobody is watching closely stinks of pious fraud.

Whatever that means, it doesn't describe the Jesus miracles in the Gospel accounts. One indication that these were not fraudulent while some others were is that the persons healed by Jesus were not his disciples, as was usually the case with other reported miracle healing claims. E.g., the healing miracles at the Asclepius temples were usually performed on Asclepius devotees only who had worshiped this deity all their lives and attended the temple for healing and to practice the ancient rituals there.

Similarly, the singular miracle attributed to the Emperor Vespasian (if this event really happened) took place at the insistence of devotees of the pagan deity Serapis, in whose name the ritual was performed for them. So the victims reportedly healed by a religious ritual were generally devotees of the ancient healing deity, unlike the Jesus miracle healings, which were not ancient religious rituals to a deity worshiped by the victims being healed.

There is an element of pious fraud when the only ones healed in a miracle ritual are devotees of the ancient deity in whose name the ritual is performed. Devotees are likely to exaggerate their report of the event in their wish to uphold the ancient traditions they believe in.


People committing fraud doesn't seem unlikely AT ALL - we see it all the time, and it's utterly banal.

There were frauds named in the literature, and indications of it. When there's little or no evidence for a claim, it suggests fraud. But in the case of the Jesus miracle acts we have evidence, in the form of extra sources written near to the time of the alleged event, which evidence is lacking for other miracle claims. So it's true there are indications of fraud in some cases, but no such indications in the case of the Jesus reported miracle acts.


So we have two competing explanations - a god, for which we have no evidence, performed miracles . . .

More correctly, "no evidence" in most cases of miracle claims, but for the historical Jesus there is evidence, i.e., extra sources, as is necessary for miracle claims. Whether he was "god" is not the point. The reports of the miracle acts are the evidence, while "god" might be the explanation offered.

. . . miracles which contravene the laws of physics, but stopped doing that just as men started to understand how to determine the truth value of claims;

Whatever that means, the Jesus miracles ended at almost the same time when they began, near 30 AD, and this was not "just as men started to understand how to determine the truth value of claims;"

OR a bunch of people with the opportunity for wealth, fame, and power made up a load of horseshit in order to fleece . . .

No, nothing like that had ever happened or makes any sense. No one ever acquired wealth or fame or power by inventing miracle stories. All charlatans were rejected and never acquired any wealth or fame or power by foisting miracle stories. You can't name any examples of this in the ancient world. Today on YouTube there might be something like that, but nothing you're describing has any meaning 2000 years ago. Back then the charlatans were exposed as frauds (if anything at all was reported about them) and had no following other than a dozen or so nutcases.

. . . in order to fleece the rubes, and were so successful that their lies are still believed to this day.

No, not in the 1st century AD. None of their lies were believed back then except for a few nutcases. Prior to 100 AD there were no cases of anyone who "made up a load of horseshit" successfully, to become wealthy or famous or powerful. Only since then, and over many centuries after 100 AD, can you claim anything like this happened.

The success and spread of the Christ Gospel led to some fraud during the subsequent centuries, of which some has been successful. But none of that can explain how the Jesus miracle stories were first believed and published before 100 AD. The pattern is obvious: something authentic happened originally, to get the miracle belief started, and as this spread farther and farther there also emerged an element of fraud and hoax attaching to it. Once it got started in the first place, then it's possible to explain how the fraud element also developed, and some of this might still be continuing into modern times.


One of those explanations requires the suspension of physical law;

No, the explanation that the reported events did happen does not require suspension of physical law, but only that it cannot be explained by current known science. Just because the latest science has no explanation does not mean that physical law must have been suspended. Perhaps future science will identify the physical law better and determine that what happened was not a suspension of it.


The other requires a small number of dishonest people.

There are many dishonest people seeking wealth and power and fame. If this explains the Jesus miracle accounts, then we should also have many other cases of reputed miracle-workers in the ancient world, recorded in written accounts near the time of the reputed miracle events, published in multiple accounts rather than only one. But there are no other cases. There is only this one case for which there is any serious evidence. It is inexplicable that there is only one case, if the explanation is that "a bunch of people with the opportunity for wealth, fame, and power made up a load of horseshit."

How can this be the only case in ancient history where such people made up a load of horseshit? No, the truth is that when "horseshit" was made up it was detected and rejected by virtually everyone, in some cases exposed as fraud, and not ever published in writings of educated people from the time.


We have a vast, indeed inexhaustible, reserve of dishonest people in the world, and they have always been with us.

But before modern times they were rejected by virtually everyone and not published in multiple sources from the time. So any such dishonesty cannot explain where the Jesus miracle stories came from, though perhaps it explains some 20th- or 21st-century cases, when modern publishing makes it possible for every nutcase to produce multiple "sources" for their claims.

You could dismiss every claim anyone makes, about anything, by just pointing out all the dishonest claims which have been made, and so therefore we can't believe anything, no matter what it is. No history, no science, no current events -- nothing claimed in any source anywhere can be trusted, because of all the dishonest claims made all the time everywhere.


We have NEVER ONCE seen the laws of physics being broken.

The Jesus miracle acts did not necessarily violate the laws of physics.

And we don't know that the "laws of physics" have never been broken, or that no one ever saw them broken. This is an example how believing the miracles of Jesus can be based on skepticism and agnosticism, allowing that it might be the case, because we have some evidence, while still there is doubt, and so we don't know for sure. Whereas disbelief requires dogmatic ideological intolerance toward the possibility that a miracle might have happened in some cases where there is no known explanation for a reported event.


It's not rocket surgery.

Right -- for it to be credible doesn't require scientific proof how it happened, or a doctorate in surgery. We just need the reports saying it happened, or that it was witnessed by some folks.

That an event happened, to be credible, requires only that it is reported by someone claiming it, near to the event, when or where it happened, and is not contradicted by others near the time or place -- and especially if there's more than only one source claiming it.

Like the Jesus miracles recorded in written accounts during 50-100 AD. If there were any other similar cases of reported miracle acts done by someone, they also would be believable.
 
Walking on water without the aid of floats is a physical impossibility.

Mybe that's why it is called a miracle.
Which is exactly the point.

It's NOT something that becomes a believable story just because someone says someone else saw it happen a long time ago.

To accept this as a historical event, i would HAVE to believe in magic, and the world i currently inhabit has a butt-ton of nifty cool shit in it, but no one reliably demonstrating magic. Not invocation, abjuration, conjuration, or supplication.

So, while a story 'dog bites man' is not news, and 'man bites dog' is news (well, until this year it would have been) but does't require a change to my understanding of reality, a story about 'dog learns to fly' is going to require heaps and heaps of documentation to be accepted as a fact.
 
Walking on water without the aid of floats is a physical impossibility.

Mybe that's why it is called a miracle.

I should have quoted, but I was specifically commenting on the claim that ''the Jesus miracle acts did not necessarily violate the laws of physics.''

Perhaps the most fundamental difference between non-theists and theists is that non-theists generally agree that physically impossible things don't happen, while theists assert that they do.

On second thoughts, there are also some non-theists who believe that 'supernatural' events occur (while not attributing these to any gods), so perhaps it would be better to say that this trait divides materialists from non-materialists. But that's just semantics - the world can nevertheless be divided into those who don't think physically impossible things can happen, and those who do, with all theists in the latter camp, pretty much by definition.

Perhaps we could more reasonably call these groups 'sane' and 'insane'.
 
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